Homestretch derby

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#1 Mon, Apr 13, 2015 - 9:23pm
Anonymous

Homestretch derby

Ok the last of the favorites made his lomg anticipated prep on last Saturday. American pharaoh won easily against an ok field. He did what he needed to do to keep his top ranking. He went 1 3/16 of a mile and that's a bit short of what he will need for the derby. The field is far from set...but he is scheduled to arrive at churchill on the 17th. Which just FYI will be first very long first anticipate start of the first born out of Zenyatta the queen of racing.. Her being 19 of 20 and only mare to win the breeders cup classic. Her last and only defeat came in the classic just missing the repeat by a head to blame. Oh well more to come as it comes...

Mon, Apr 13, 2015 - 10:05pm
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Wed, Apr 15, 2015 - 9:54am
FJ
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American Pharaoh and deeper

American Pharaoh and deeper dirt is an interesting observation. I know nothing about the field, the tracks, owners, breeders, jockeys... etal.

I did look up a few things - one being the line: Hopefully is current.

The ignorant wagerer in me would pick a few names out of sheer irony whom fit the times and place a wheeled series of wagers.

So keep us posted as we near the wire as to your observations and thoughts, it's exciting and your edu is helpful in considering a wager. One that front as well if you have an online sports book or place you believe is best suited for a wager, please do share.

Bovada seems ready for the money...

Wed, Apr 15, 2015 - 8:06pm (Reply to #3)
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Wed, Apr 15, 2015 - 8:26pm (Reply to #4)
FJ
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Good enough Jen, thanks. I

Good enough Jen, thanks. I was eyeballing Dortmund as he is a beast and seems to be the right for the track by my way of wild ass guessing. AP is not my horse, that may sound silly as he is the fav, but he won't see my jing.

How do times work if they aren't paced?

A jock can hold em back no or is it go baby go?

Curious, seems like there are so many variables and so much that can change right up to the gate...

No pressure, but I'm going follow your leads as I'd screw the pooch on my own.

So yeah, keep the thoughts coming as they develop, looking forward to it. I'm actually gonna watch the race for the first time since my buddy died. He was a nutcase for the races and with him gone it's not the same.

Wed, Apr 15, 2015 - 8:47pm (Reply to #5)
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Wed, Apr 15, 2015 - 9:07pm
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Thu, Apr 16, 2015 - 11:08am
FJ
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As of 4.13 Dortmund moved up

As of 4.13 Dortmund moved up as the odds on favorite.

Here are the top five ranked contenders and their odds, with one three-year-old colt so far standing well above the rest of the pack.

Dortmund

The rankings begin with Dortmund, who won the Santa Anita Derby by 4 1 /2 lengths and is the latest contender from the stable of esteemed trainer Bob Baffert. The victory was just the latest in a six-race winning streak for Dortmund, including the Grade 1 victory at the Los Alamos Futurity back in December. The fact that he blew away the field at the 1 1 /8-mile Santa Anita means he could have a huge kick on the final turn in Louisville. The lineage to near-Triple Crown-winner Big Brown gives Dortmund’s stock a boost as well.

Odds: 6-1

American Pharoah

Not too far back is American Pharoah, a three-year-old colt who picked up a crucial and telling win at the G1 Arkansas Derby over the weekend, and banked two other G1 victories in September, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. He took a near six-month rest before taking down the G2 Rebel Stakes and carried that momentum into Arkansas. Another member of Baffert’s lot, American Pharoah has won four straight and currently figures to be Dortmund’s biggest challenger next month.

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Odds: 5-1

Firing Line

After coming in second to Dortmund at Los Alamitos and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Firing Line moved down to the G3 Sunland Derby and claimed his first win in months. The motive behind the move down likely resides in building Firing Line’s confidence before the Derby, a savvy move from a young trainer in Simon Callaghan, who learned from the great Todd Pletcher.

Odds: 13-1

Carpe Diem

And speaking of Pletcher, his Carpe Diem has won four of his five races, and finished second in the one he didn’t win. Most recently he took home the Blue Grass Stakes to move into third in the points standings, but didn’t run away with the victory. Bred in Kentucky, Carpe Diem has the chance to win over the home crowd, and one Times’ expert predicted he will enjoy the Derby’s longer track.

Odds: 10-1

Materiality

Like Baffert, Pletcher is expected to have two contenders in his year’s race, with Materiality only weeks removed from his Florida Derby victory. Materiality has only started three races, but he’s won them all, with Pletcher slowly working him up to G1. The gradual increase in quality competition is one thing, but Materiality has shown great promise on 1 1 /8-mile tracks and could be itching for a breakaway from the pack in a few weeks.

Odds: 12-1

Thu, Apr 16, 2015 - 8:26pm (Reply to #8)
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Thu, Apr 16, 2015 - 8:33pm
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Thu, Apr 16, 2015 - 10:00pm
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Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 7:37am (Reply to #11)
FJ
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Appreciate the analysis

Appreciate the analysis & commentary and updates, it's wild how all this moves around day to day, why.... it's a like a stock market, perhaps how it used to be.

Dortmund just caught my eye, I'll wait for the teenies to come in and see how they ran. Hell, as you said, if the track is wet/slower it's an entirely different race, so patience. It is exciting and I was gonna ask about Zenyatta, but passed for some odd reason, another potential beastie in the tuff stuff.

I'm just gonna wheel a few trifectas on race day and with a couple a weeks to go it should get more interesting. 

Lol, I had a Samurai when I lived in the Caribbe, it was a near useless piece of offroad pretense in the hills of the islands, underpowered and a horrific 4x drive for anything other than the flats.

Hope things have settled down and you and your team are snug and adjusted to the new entry, it's quite fun to hear how it's all developing. Keep the peace for now, they'll be a time for reverence, it's coming to all our doors.

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 11:26am
Marblesonac
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Ummm, Probably shouldn't discuss this in polite society, but

How often do jockeys fix races? Does it happen in the really big ones like the BC, and the triple crown ones?

Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 9:48pm (Reply to #13)
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Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 9:51pm (Reply to #12)
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Fri, Apr 17, 2015 - 10:15pm
Marblesonac
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Belle

Thanks for that info, it makes me feel better.

Sat, Apr 18, 2015 - 2:19pm (Reply to #16)
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Sat, Apr 18, 2015 - 9:07pm
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Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 11:01pm
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Mon, Apr 20, 2015 - 11:03pm (Reply to #16)
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Fri, Apr 24, 2015 - 9:39pm
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