Homestretch derby

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Ruffian
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Homestretch derby

Ok the last of the favorites made his lomg anticipated prep on last Saturday. American pharaoh won easily against an ok field. He did what he needed to do to keep his top ranking.

He went 1 3/16 of a mile and that's a bit short of what he will need for the derby.

The field is far from set...but he is scheduled to arrive at churchill on the 17th.

Which just FYI will be first very long first anticipate start of the first born out of Zenyatta the queen of racing.. Her being 19 of 20 and only mare to win the breeders cup classic. Her last and only defeat came in the classic just missing the repeat by a head to blame.

Oh well more to come as it comes...

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Oops

Hmmm I stand corrected. American pharaoh is already at churchill,.. Interesting.

Reckon someone is worried about that deep, deep Churchill dirt...it's awfully tiring and not kind to pure speed horses like American pharaoh.

Gonna be a great tote!

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American Pharaoh and deeper

American Pharaoh and deeper dirt is an interesting observation. I know nothing about the field, the tracks, owners, breeders, jockeys... etal.

I did look up a few things - one being the line: Hopefully is current.

The ignorant wagerer in me would pick a few names out of sheer irony whom fit the times and place a wheeled series of wagers.

So keep us posted as we near the wire as to your observations and thoughts, it's exciting and your edu is helpful in considering a wager. One that front as well if you have an online sports book or place you believe is best suited for a wager, please do share.

Bovada seems ready for the money...

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I'm not familiar

With that site at all.

BUT I hope the odds look like that.

Right now it's impossible to handicap cuz one very few have committed and one who is eligible said they wont start.... A few top jocks have no mounts and most of these horses have never met even once.

So I'll be looking for value. They are all beatable. So for now I think who can beat the favorites.

Like Dortmund who is really the cofavorite. He's big, giant stride but if he gets pinned in he won't be able to reach full speed. Plus if it's a sloppy track, he's heavy and he's gonna sink further down.

He's slower but I like international star. He's fearless and will slip thru the smallest holes. Very good if 20 horses are bunched up.

Mutaabiji impossible to rate... He coming from overseas but he's a proven winner but in lesser company.

Post position most likely will determine the pace and pace makes race..... I'll be writing more but for the moment I have no favorite. I do know American pharaoh gets a hot pace with Dortmund, that Dortmund will bury him.

Materiality may be the best of them but he's so green......

I never bet online. I go to the track to test my skills. I do the daily racing form to check competition for my own horses and I try to never read what sportswriters say.

Horses love or hate Churchill...their upcoming timed works will tell a lot.

Oh well more to come....

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Good enough Jen, thanks. I

Good enough Jen, thanks. I was eyeballing Dortmund as he is a beast and seems to be the right for the track by my way of wild ass guessing. AP is not my horse, that may sound silly as he is the fav, but he won't see my jing.

How do times work if they aren't paced?

A jock can hold em back no or is it go baby go?

Curious, seems like there are so many variables and so much that can change right up to the gate...

No pressure, but I'm going follow your leads as I'd screw the pooch on my own.

So yeah, keep the thoughts coming as they develop, looking forward to it. I'm actually gonna watch the race for the first time since my buddy died. He was a nutcase for the races and with him gone it's not the same.

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Well..

No absolutes.... Keep in mind millions od years of evolution as prey. They are suppossed to have one giant burst of speed. Yet some can be taught to rate to a degree. The last thing you ever want to is have to disrupt momentum very few can recover.

Also the times are tricky. Each track has it's own speed bias. Meaning what seems like a bad time on one track is really a very good time. Naturally, weather plays a a huge past too. Lotta people use Byers speed figures I look at them but don't live by them as handicappers are want to do. What I'm looking for is the speed by 1/16ths. Is the horse getting faster or slower and is there a reason why? Keep in mind the time of the win horse only represents the race unless the win horse goes wire to wire.

American pharaoh can win this race if he can get loose and not challenged and if he doesn't tire. His pedigree doesn't scream distance but hes got staying power on his maternal side.

Carpe diem is a he'll of a horse to. He masterful but some doubts on his distance. But horses outrun their pedigrees everyday. He belongs right up there with the favorites. In fact he's more versatile and has faced adversity.

Frosted....he just dead stopped a few weeks back. The changed everything on him. They say he had minor throat surgery. That means a flipped palate. So why didn't they just say that.... Cuz ummm maybe they just fixed his palate anyway. Changed the jock, but blinkers on etc.... Whatever it was it worked and his last prep was great but.... Who knows if it will happen again.

So I'm looking to see who is fit right now. Also I place exotic bets mainly. Like exacta, trifecta and superfectas. Why cuz the money is so good.

I'm so sorry about your friend and I understand. My bros fav show premiered the other night. I didn't bother to watch it.

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Forgot

Yes jocks can ask them to go.... The question is when do you ask them? I'd say in this kinda race keeping them in check is much harder on the hot horses.

I have one they practically have to give a ride to the gate.... Different horse once he's in the chute tho.

Oh and it change right up to finish line.... Trust me a lotta blood on them when they get back.

Edit: I'm sorry I've done a piss poor job of explaining. I will do better. I'm seriously just beat- emotionally today. If I'd had a choice I'd have stayed in bed all day. My coping skills are at a low at the moment. But Ill add more info. It's hard cuz I try to avoid racing terms cuz i know most folks don't know what they mean.

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As of 4.13 Dortmund moved up

As of 4.13 Dortmund moved up as the odds on favorite.

Here are the top five ranked contenders and their odds, with one three-year-old colt so far standing well above the rest of the pack.

Dortmund

The rankings begin with Dortmund, who won the Santa Anita Derby by 4 1 /2 lengths and is the latest contender from the stable of esteemed trainer Bob Baffert. The victory was just the latest in a six-race winning streak for Dortmund, including the Grade 1 victory at the Los Alamos Futurity back in December. The fact that he blew away the field at the 1 1 /8-mile Santa Anita means he could have a huge kick on the final turn in Louisville. The lineage to near-Triple Crown-winner Big Brown gives Dortmund’s stock a boost as well.

Odds: 6-1

American Pharoah

Not too far back is American Pharoah, a three-year-old colt who picked up a crucial and telling win at the G1 Arkansas Derby over the weekend, and banked two other G1 victories in September, the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. He took a near six-month rest before taking down the G2 Rebel Stakes and carried that momentum into Arkansas. Another member of Baffert’s lot, American Pharoah has won four straight and currently figures to be Dortmund’s biggest challenger next month.

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Odds: 5-1

Firing Line

After coming in second to Dortmund at Los Alamitos and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Firing Line moved down to the G3 Sunland Derby and claimed his first win in months. The motive behind the move down likely resides in building Firing Line’s confidence before the Derby, a savvy move from a young trainer in Simon Callaghan, who learned from the great Todd Pletcher.

Odds: 13-1

Carpe Diem

And speaking of Pletcher, his Carpe Diem has won four of his five races, and finished second in the one he didn’t win. Most recently he took home the Blue Grass Stakes to move into third in the points standings, but didn’t run away with the victory. Bred in Kentucky, Carpe Diem has the chance to win over the home crowd, and one Times’ expert predicted he will enjoy the Derby’s longer track.

Odds: 10-1

Materiality

Like Baffert, Pletcher is expected to have two contenders in his year’s race, with Materiality only weeks removed from his Florida Derby victory. Materiality has only started three races, but he’s won them all, with Pletcher slowly working him up to G1. The gradual increase in quality competition is one thing, but Materiality has shown great promise on 1 1 /8-mile tracks and could be itching for a breakaway from the pack in a few weeks.

Odds: 12-1

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Yikes and some random thoughts

I'm gonna guess those were taken from a sports book site. I prefer to play the mutuels but that's another conversation.

Also, the above tells nothing about any of the horses.

Baffert will have three in to go. One lucky Dane is handy and came second to dortmond in the wood. He knows Dane can't beat him so is in to soften up someone? Set an homest pace?

Pletcher had x7 a fews ago. Materiality is damned fast but 3 starts is he a rabbit for carpe diem who won a prep from dead last?

Thing is the past few years prep fields have been lean with few horses entered. Also past few derbies have been lacking a hot pace except when palace malice freaked out on the crowd and flew. So I expect a tepid pace.

Post position is going to be very important. Dortmond needs room to hit cursing speed. Churchill will do everything to get the track fast but even at it's best it's not a speed bias track.... The rail is the death position..unless it rains. Then it becomes the only good lane on the track.

IF I had to bet today my money would be on mutaabiji. Why cuz I'm astounded at the acceleration he turned on while at cruising speed. It really was remarkable. He's got endurance, can race from on or off the pace. He has a jock one of the vest in the world for whom 20 field races are an everday thing. And this horse can run on wrong leads. This sob was beating 4yrs old when he was just 2. Oh did I mention he already beat a year older EU triple crown winner

Leads are the side of the horse that he starts off with and that's the side that has the further leg reach in front and behind. For example going around a turn since we race clockwise you want the horse to be on his inside lead for better balance. You then want them to switch so they can rest those legs. He seems to run fine regardless of what lead he is on.

The drawbacks are it's his 3 big race in a few weeks, he's got allergies, his feed is gonna change. And most foreign race start slower and finish much faster. However, this is what the derby has been like for the past several years. Also that surface he raced on is brand new and I'm not sure how it rates.

So for now I'm just gonna watch workouts.... .... Keep in mind back when secretariat raced he was part of an entry 1, 1a, there was a reason for that.

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One morE thing

I really don't like seeing a horse win in a blowout. In fact I'd pissed if my jock won by giant lengths... Too much wear and tear.... The best horse I ever saw set his fastest time in a dead heat. He never set a single record except in the win and money made columns.

edit: one more negative on mutaabiji is that historically horses coming from or returning meydan have done very poorly.

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Just FYI

The mare Zenyatta that I mentioned in the first post was also the same size as Dortmund. She constantly beat the boys and she was racing against some damn good ones. Her success came not just from her size but cuz she raced from well off the pace and it allowed to reach a full extension of her stride and max speed. Only a huge horse could have pulled off those wins she had. Was sad her only loss was her last race in the breeders cup classic came cuz she moved a tic or two late.

Yeah she could rate... But she ran her best from the back or wide.... Dortmund will most likely need to do the same. If he rates he's gonna get boxed in and he's too big to slip thru holes, also if he has to be checked it's gonna cut off his breathing or grab a quarter ...(getting your heel torn off).

Also Baffert horses are prone to breakdown any moment... So are pletchers.. Bobs usually has them Completing 65 furlong workouts by 3. This is why American pharaoh was on a six month injury layoff and has been babied. He has NEVER been in tuff. Their owners don't care cuz they know the real money is in the breeding shed. So expect them to do anything to win...and that means sacrifice one or more for another. He knows which one is better... But which of his clients does he value more?

I will say that dormund was entered into the stronger field. He instructed one of his other horses not to go with him and another top ten challenger never came to anything cuz he came out of the race with a fever and is off the trail. I could be dead wrong but I think he knows Dortmund is better but pharaohs owner is more important to him? So go figure ....

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Appreciate the analysis

Appreciate the analysis & commentary and updates, it's wild how all this moves around day to day, why.... it's a like a stock market, perhaps how it used to be.

Dortmund just caught my eye, I'll wait for the teenies to come in and see how they ran. Hell, as you said, if the track is wet/slower it's an entirely different race, so patience. It is exciting and I was gonna ask about Zenyatta, but passed for some odd reason, another potential beastie in the tuff stuff.

I'm just gonna wheel a few trifectas on race day and with a couple a weeks to go it should get more interesting. 

Lol, I had a Samurai when I lived in the Caribbe, it was a near useless piece of offroad pretense in the hills of the islands, underpowered and a horrific 4x drive for anything other than the flats.

Hope things have settled down and you and your team are snug and adjusted to the new entry, it's quite fun to hear how it's all developing. Keep the peace for now, they'll be a time for reverence, it's coming to all our doors.

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Ummm, Probably shouldn't discuss this in polite society, but

How often do jockeys fix races? Does it happen in the really big ones like the BC, and the triple crown ones?

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@John

No significant news today. Some talk about Dortmund being slimmer. He looks ok to me.

Exotics are the way to go with that much cash in the pool. Although if I see someone I like at high odds ill plunk a few on a win ticket.

It changes hour by hour sometimes......

Zenyattas son completely bombed. He's a full hand smaller than her. He settled in last and stayed there..despite vigorous urging from his jock. He not race ready or he has no desire. Too soon to tell tho. His mama never reced until november of her 3yr old season...

We are getting by....more on that later tho.

Keep that recovery going!

Edit: the resemblance to wall street is no coincidence. They are very well represented in the industry. In fact in modern racing they make up the bulk of competitors.

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@marble

Not often.....its very hard to do that. It's more like cheating like one used a buzzer in his whip. The industry really polices this pretty carefully. They have been using tapes for decades from all different views. Plus other jocks filed inquiries and if you have a speed horse that is held back for no obvious reason ya better believe the Stewarts will inquire.

Plus they carefully review wagers for unusual betting patterns,,,,

On the other hand what many would consider cheating is just everyday stuff. Good example is the breeders cup when shared belief was the target of every jock out there. There is a difference between blocking or cutting off a hole by boxing a horse in or not moving over for him. From interferring by bumping, drifting into another's path. Or worse pulling back on a non tiring horse. Race riding is rough and horses and jockeys both are recipients of whips from other riders.... In other words it's not just you trying to win but also stopping another from winning. Cuz you might not win but you can improve your chance to pick up a check up to sixth place in most places. 2nd pays pretty well whereas 6th is a pittance. 20% of 2 million dollar race is still a nice paycheck and trainers and jockeys get a direct percentage. Those that don't get a check are given a few dollars as a fee.

The track is very competitive, perhaps more so than any other sport.

Edit: the most common way to cheat is by drugging horses. That a whole other topic but big races horses are put in detention barns and on camera.... They are tested too. Still can and does happen tho. Horses can train on drugs but not race on them... Except for Salix... Which almost all of them race on in the USA. Some believe it stops bleeding in the lungs... I'm on the fence with it.

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Belle

Thanks for that info, it makes me feel better.

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Another one drops out

Bob Bafferts one lucky Dane who was 2nd to Dortmund in the Santa Anita handicap was pulled up from his workout and is off the derby trail.

Pletchers carpe diem had a solid workout but materiality was sluggish....

More later.... Jays decided to cut boards today and cut off a chunk of his hand. Waiting for the surgeon to determine if pins need to be inserted etc.... Have no idea how this happened cuz he's very handy with a power saw. Don't have much more info cuz I had to get ahold of fbop so they could administer pain meds... Unreal, the hospital told me he would be sent back to prison without authorization despite the circumstances...

More laters.

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Update

Dortmund posted a bullet workout today at Santa Anita. He was awesome. International star also turned a good one and the rest who worked were hohum. noticeably absent was American pharaoh but he wasn't the only one. Just something to be aware of tho.

As for jays he was ripping a board with a power saw and it jumped on him and cut thru his left index finger between the first and second knuckle. Will know more after he sees a specialist.

Had no idea he was coming today. Now he's not going to be able come until who knows when. How many violent criminals did bloody efffn Obama release in the past year? I could just vomit!

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El kabier

Worked over Churchill with a solid workout, on paper he looks like he can't win. But he's got Calvin borel on board and Calvin is the master at ground saving rail trips. El Kabier loves mud too.

Interesting is that zayat stables has 3 derby horses with three trainers. Baffert, Lucas and terranova. El Kabier has shown rare and uncanny ability to race and race well from anywhere. Mr z has even flat but Lucas is a true wizard about turning leveled off horses around. Both have even heavily raced unlike American pharoah. At one time these entries would be coupled.

Also one of the huge KY breeding farms has bought an interest in Upstart. That says a lot plinking money down before a big race hmmmm. He's been working well too, just solid and he's courageous.

Firing line is too, he's a notch below th favorites but not back sliding.

On a sad note, shared belief the number one horse in the world. Looked like he'll in the post parade at charleston. A high energy horse just walking to the gate, always a bad sign. He left the gate poorly and was pulled up. He has a hip fracture.
Jim Rome is a jerk but I gotta say he does love that horse.

This is why I like to place my bets after they get on the track....

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@marble

Wait till ya cash one!

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Pletchers works

Pletchers horses with the exception of carpe diem who remains at Keeneland for no or unknown reason worked today. He'd been waiting for this to determine their status. Stanford, it'saknockout and madefromlucky along with materiality breezed at churchill. Madefromlucky just failed to grab the track and he's been declared out. Which means keen ice who was also worked is now in if he wants.

Also Danzig moon who I had been told was doing well certainly was full of himself. Carpe diem will breeze at Keeneland tomorrow morning, ya can read into that anything you want. Cuz horses who don't like a track aren't going to like it even if they breeze on it. He's really a ball of fire and Pletcher may be keeping him away from all the hoopla at Churchill. Either way he's gonna be explosive in the paddock so I guess it doesn't matter.

The California contingent is expected in together on Sunday, the day American pharoh will finally work . It might be a sloppy track. Oh oh and how can I forget ... Our factor mubtaahij will ship in Monday and we should get a glimpse of him... Not a work just a glimpse.

If it sounds insane it's cuz it is. Even the old guys can't remember a race like this .... Except the year secretariat won. Keep in mind he was NOT the favorite.

Oh well more as it comes available.

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