Eric O's Favorite Gold Miners

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Sat, Dec 15, 2012 - 7:24am
GoldMania3000
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Kam

Just announced 3.2 mill oz. Many thought it was going to .50 cents. I bought in the $1-1.10 range, plus i had some from the .45 cent range. Have to say the sprott folks have been right so far on their projections. good thing they have the geos to help guide us. They did their own modeling to project, they had a little lower resource then what came out but belive much more to come since it's "open" in many directions. And let's not forget kam has only drilled on 10-15% of their property.

Golden Band owned that many many years ago because casey's said to buy it. Went i went to my global/sprott broker back in 2004 to buy it they kind of laughed out me. It hasn't done any thing, they are not proving anything up. I've never listend to the casey folks ever since.

Mon, Dec 17, 2012 - 6:03pm
Gwyde
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Orko Silver bought out

First Majestic Announces Friendly Acquisition of Orko Silver

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Dec 16, 2012) - First Majestic Silver Corp. ("First Majestic") (FR.TO)(AG)(FMV.F) and Orko Silver Corp. ("Orko") (TSX VENTURE:OK)(OKOFF)(OG3.F) are pleased to announce that the companies have entered into a definitive agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") pursuant to which First Majestic has agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Orko for consideration of 0.1202 of a common share of First Majestic (the "Exchange Ratio") plus $0.0001 in cash per Orko common share. The offer implies a value of C$2.72 per Orko share based on the closing prices of both First Majestic and Orko''s common shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") and TSX Venture Exchange, respectively, on December 14, 2012. The offer represents a premium of approximately 69% to Orko''s 30-day volume-weighted average price ("VWAP") for the period ending December 14, 2012. The transaction will be implemented by way of a plan of arrangement (the "Arrangement") under the Business Corporations Act (British Columbia).
First Majestic is down slightly over 10%.
Gwyde
Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 6:07am
GoldMania3000
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keegan and PMI

If you listend to or was a client of rick rule you would have been into keegan and knew it was a merger/take over. not like golden band. joke. stop recommending BS to people. you don't know what you are talking about.

Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 6:09am
GoldMania3000
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for the most part

ricks picks have been stable. not like the likes of golden band recommendations

Wed, Dec 26, 2012 - 8:30am
Eric Original
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I've been out of Golden Band

I've been out of Golden Band since July. See my post about 6 pages back on this thread.

I removed GBN from my "List" long before I dumped the entire list. I think I got 18 or 19 cents for it, if memory serves. Now it's more like 10 cents.

You've been complaining about GBN out on Main St, at the Speak, and again here. Sounds like you should man up and take responsibility for your own losses.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Fri, Feb 8, 2013 - 7:52pm
Eric Original
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More than one way to skin a cat

For the past few months I've been heavy on the red line, and little or nothing on the blue line. As I said on this thread before, just because you are underwater doesn't mean you are doomed to sit there with the same stocks or even the same sector trying to get even.

I know some of you will be thinking that pretty soon I'll get my comeuppance, and those lines will switch. Ok, but how long have you been thinking that? A year? Two years? How has that been working out? It wasn't working for me, so I changed. Pure and simple. I'm a disciple of the Church of Whatever is Working.

If I start to see some sort of real strength in the miners I can do a switcharoo with a few clicks. But I'm not seeing it yet. Not even close.

Good Luck everyone.

EO

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Sat, Feb 9, 2013 - 2:31pm
zman
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That's a valid point Eric,

That's a valid point Eric, maybe the Dow will go to 15-16k in the near term, but there will be a time to "switch" for sure.

I wouldn't get too greedy with the outperformance of general equities relative to gold equities, a another year of it? Not likely, I see a few more months at most.

A investor with his finger on the trigger can make the switch with ease, the other 99% of investors will stick with what they have, and have no clue about the "switch".

A Dow relative to gold stocks shows that most of the gains have been made, very little left in the trade, the Dow/Gold ratio has looks very tired, bottom line, gold and gold stocks are very oversold relative to the general stock market.

Congrats in taking advantage of the trade Eric, I didn't see such an extreme coming.

Sat, Feb 9, 2013 - 2:48pm
Eric Original
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zman

"wouldn't get too greedy" and "finger on the trigger" are important points, with which I most heartily agree.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Mon, Feb 11, 2013 - 5:15pm
T
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Eric......

Are you trying to say that you bought Krispy Kreme donuts at 6 and now youre gloating at 13 ??

why didnt you tell us to buy KKD at 6 ???!!!!

I woulda bought it if you just Told me to.

lol

Tue, Feb 12, 2013 - 1:28pm
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ROYALTIES - NOT JUST AS GOOD

ROYALTIES - NOT JUST AS GOOD AS GOLD, BETTER THAN GOLD!

There's no doubt about it! Royalty companies are the best way to gain exposure to gold... a picture is worth a thousand words (and maybe your dollars, too!)

You could easily buy all 6 gold royalty companies and do very well as evidenced by the chart above. There aren't many players in the royalty space and for good reason. c/o 31Floors on SiliconInvestor:

"There are significant barriers to entry or there'd be 50 today not less than 10. To paraphrase Bill if flubian was the hot commodity today you'd have 200 flubian exploration companies on the Venture next week. Why is there less than 10 royalty companies? Because its tough to get a package together esp now."

Given that the pond is small, the big fish huge and the little fish tiny. Does size matter?

I've recently observed a trend amongst the major royalty companies. The reality is as Lassonde (FNV) says, there aren't any notable deposits of both quality and size to be found. Without those kinds of projects there just aren't many mega deals to be had - deals large enough to tip the scales for these already richly valued royalty companies. The only really profitable deals out there are in the smaller deposits. The aforementioned trend I've observed is that larger, lumbering royalty players are trying to re-capture momentum by gaining exposure through smaller players that can take advantage of the growing small market segment - in the $XX million per deal range. Lassonde's Franco-Nevada (FNV) has allied itself with Gold Royalty Corp (GRO) in a $15m royalty acquisition partnership while Sandstorm Gold (SSL) has purchased a controlling interest in new-comer Premier Royalty (NSR). Royal Gold recently raised $325m and may be positioning itself to partner with a smaller royalty company, just like competitors FNV and SSL.

c/o unlimited_aw:

I think Nolan Watson stated clearly what they want with this strategic relationship:

“Premier Royalty has a base of existing royalties and a strong team that is capable of growth through accretive acquisitions. Owning a significant interest in Premier Royalty gives Sandstorm continued exposure to smaller stream and royalty acquisitions, allowing Sandstorm’s team to focus on transactions that are material to our shareholders. Today’s acquisition is the beginning of a strategic relationship between Sandstorm and Premier Royalty, one that we believe will be beneficial to shareholders of both companies.”

These developments are worth pondering - it's very instructive of where the growth will be concentrated in the royalty sector.

Enter AMERICAS (GOLD) BULLION ROYALTY, currently trading as GOLDEN PREDATOR (T.GPD).

GPD owns a portfolio of 34 high quality royalties, nearly all of which are located in the United States with the bulk of the royalties gross, payable in-kind (gold not paper), and with no buy back provisions. Operators are also of the highest quality, including Barrick and Midway.

CORP PRESENTATION - ROYALTIES

CORP PRESENTATION - EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT

Better Than Gold Royalty Corp (GRO)

EV $22m

GRO's two largest royalties - 0.5% NSR on Metanor's Bachelor Lake and a 1% GSR on Victoria's Eagle. The Bachelor Lake NSR was originally 1%, half was recently bought back demonstrating the importance of having no buy-back provisions in place. My feeling is that GRO is being very optimistic if they expect VIT to be mining gold by 2015. VIT will be lucky if Yukon Energy creates the capacity to support Eagle by 2016. If this company intends to hang it's hat on those two royalties, Good Luck! In any event, I rather generously reflected GRO's 2015 production expectations on the charts that follow.

Better Than Premier Royalty Inc. (NSR)

EV $100m

Over 60% of NSR's royalties are paid in rapidly inflating Argentine Pesos/South African Rands! Venezuela just devalued their currency by over a third and Argentina/SA are in no better of a position. This currency exposure will prove to be a real drag on NSR's balance sheet as GPD's continues to improve, thanks to the in-kind royalties paid on their high quality North American properties. The charts that follow also clearly show NSR with the richest valuation of the three newcomers, further limiting upside.

GPD is set up to provide exceptionally low risk exposure to gold with the most upside. It's not even close!!!

GPD's flagship royalties include a 1% GSR on Barrick's Bald Mountain, 4% GPR on Barricks Duke-Trapper-Royale, as well as a 4% GPR on Midway's Pan and Gold Rock properties, respectively. All of which are takeable in-kind, from projects located in Nevada, with access to infrastructure, a skilled labor-force and well advanced towards production.

I am assuming that GPD's entire EV of $63m is being attributed to just the top 4 royalties with no value given to GPD's high quality exploration or development assets - which features near-term producer Brewery Creek (2H'14) and including the largest land position in the Yukon. I also attribute zero value to the thirty other royalties in the pipeline.

*****GPD's exploration and development assets will be spun off to shareholders in the re-org, FREE! So get in before the re-org!*****

MOST AGGRESSIVE GROWTH PROFILE

BEST VALUE PROPOSITION

Using EV/attributable oz as a simple measure of relative value. GPD is currently being valued at about ,000 per 2014 attributable oz vs. NSR's ,000. The difference is clearer the further out you project. GPD is currently being valued at about ,000 per 2016 attributable oz vs. NSR's ,000.

Jennings Capital analyst Kwong-Mun Achong Low

"Given this scarcity and strong investor interest in the royalty space, we do not expect Golden Predator to remain undervalued for long," he concludes, adding that now is a good time to get into the stock before the wider investor base realizes the value of the company's new focus"

Data as of 2/8/2013.


Read more at https://www.stockhouse.com/blogs/viewdetailedpost.aspx?p=158471#9rR0AYEsYAYlHrEG.99

Wed, Feb 13, 2013 - 7:33am
victori
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@Eric Original

Hey Eric, In the past you've rejected some investment ideas (all mining royalty companies, Rye patch Gold etc) on the grounds that they might bring "bad karma" to their owners. Today, I understand that you're only invested through ETFs: How certain are you that all of the companies which you're invested through the ETFs are on high moral ground and do you believe that Karmic laws only apply if one is invested in individual companies but do not apply to those who invest through ETFs?

Mon, Mar 18, 2013 - 1:26pm
BagOfGold
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For Eric O...

I'm thinking of you!!!...

Bag Of Gold
Tue, Mar 19, 2013 - 10:30am
Eric Original
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Luv it BOG

That reminds me. Will start thinking about spring planting season for my popcorn patch soon!

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Tue, May 28, 2013 - 8:57pm
Eric Original
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This chart tells me everything I need to know about the Miners

It says "stay away".

If/when we cross north of the 50 day I'll post again. And the message will be "not yet". I want the 200 day.

Hope you are making money elsewhere. Good luck all.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Thu, Aug 1, 2013 - 6:27pm Eric Original
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Hi Eric. You have a great

Hi Eric.

You have a great thread here.

That 50 day MA isn't going downhill quite so much these days.

Although it might be early would you consider updating your list?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Aug 4, 2013 - 10:50am
Eric Original
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No, Argentus, no more Lists from me

I went through a process last fall where I began to get away from studying and keeping a list of individual miners, and shifting over to ETF's only. It began here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/572165#comment-572165

Came to full flower here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/576462#comment-576462

More discussion of ETF's versus a List here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/577786#comment-577786

I've been all over the blog recently talking up moving average timing systems. Most recently and thoroughly at Pailin's Corner here, and for several follow up posts after.

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/602866#comment-602866

Related posts on this thread are here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/587964#comment-587964

and here, just above:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/598614#comment-598614

So, no, there won't be any more lists of individual miners from me. As for the ETF's, yes the miners spent a week or so above the 50 day recently, but appear to have failed once again. That is the problem with the 50 day. It is for the brave and the bold. The choice to go long at the 50 or at the 200, or somewhere in between, is a personal one. Do some backtesting, assess your own personality as a trader and risk taker, and take your pick.

I'm waiting for the 200 day on GDX. I'll be long above the 200 day, in cash (or elsewhere entirely, as I've been all year) below it. And importantly, I'll only check for signals once or twice per month. Certainly no more than weekly. Fewer whipsaws that way, which are killers. See one of the follow up posts at Pailin's Corner for more on that subject.

Also, I'm not spending much time on the blog anymore, so I suspect there won't be any more updates from me on this subject. Folks can track moving averages for themselves easy enough.

Good Luck everyone.

This isn't a metals blog anymore. It's a right wing circle jerk, masquerading as a metals blog.
Sun, Aug 4, 2013 - 11:57pm
القراع عصفور
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for Eric

für Elise...

Für Elise (Piano version)
all great works are works in progress.
Mon, Aug 5, 2013 - 12:16am
redwood
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Lovely piece, both art and

Lovely piece, both art and music. Our son as a young boy loved Fur Elise.

Mon, Aug 5, 2013 - 4:55am Eric Original
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@Eric : What you did already

@Eric : What you did already kicked ass

Appreciate your multi-linked reply.

AM

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Feb 14, 2014 - 9:09pm
Hammer
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Which Gold Miners Must

Which Gold Miners Must Replenish Their Reserves Through M&A?

hope this helps

https://www.tickerscores.com/blog/which-gold-miners-must-replenish-their-reserves-through-ma/

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
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