Early KY derby

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Ruffian
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Early KY derby

Ok first I'd like to start by saying last years winner California chrome is racing in Dubai on the meydan track for 10million USD. He's the favorite along with another American horse named lea. CC is the chalk or fav... Not the best field I'd even seen.

On the other hand shared belief who was not in the derby and was brutalized in breeders cup and still managed 4th and whooped Cali chrome should be going in the wood. He's the most exciting horse I've seen in ages. He's a little guy too and is 10wins from 11 starts. His majority owner is Jim Rome from sport talk fame. I'm sure these two along with Bayern will meet again this year.

Now for the derby. 4 of the top 20 most likely started are out with injury. Not as many as previous years. American pharaoh is virtually tied with dortmond. Both are trained bob Baffert and have very differt styles. Dortmund is huge and he seems to be still growing. He weighs about 1300lbs that's a lotta weigh on ankles. I'm not sold on American Pharaoh cuz he was in easy and he came off an injury. But a win is win. Dortmond was in tuffer and he's showed versatility running from off the pace this past he ran.

Also El Kabier ran a monster of a race but a lot of questions still about him.

I'm in the air about this Daredevil a brilliant 2yr old last year who took a serious bounce at the end of the year. His first start back he barely was in a canter for second. He should have wiped out the field. Was it by design or is he not fit? I dunno yet but I'm not ready to chuck him yet.

Pletcher as usual has a whole barnful. One goes down and he has 2 more who can step in. At this rate he will start 7 which is insane. And I'll touch on them a lit later. But have no doubt there are others who will be coming into form.

One way or the other it's a very competitive year and should be an exciting race.

Marblesonac
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When do Horses get entered?

The Derby is May 2nd, when do horses usually get entered?

If you had to bet on a horse, which one will you lay your money on?

Do you drink mint julips on Derby day?

Please keep us updated on this topic.

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@marblesonac

Well it's weird.

You can nominate any horse from birth up until around mid January of their 3yr old year for about 600usd. I nominate the best bred and confirmation ones going to sale.

Then they have a late nomination period from mid January until the end of march of the 3yr old season for approximately 6k. This gives ya a bit longer to determine your horses ability and it covers all three triple crown races.

After that you can supplement any horse for a Fee of 200k for the derby, 150k for the Preakness and 75k for the Belmont. That is provided they have accumulated enough points to become eligible. These fees change from year to year...

Uh I played some future derby wagers .. I took american pharaoh at 13/1 for example. It's like playing with a bookmaker rather than the pari mutuels. I took other horses at various odds to. It's kinda stupid but I do for fun.

I have no pick yet. For one the field isn't set yet.... And some horses aren't in the spot light or quite ready yet.

Oh he'll yes, I drink juleps. I make a mean one but I use cheap ass bourbon for them since I'm using mint and powdered sugar. The good stuff is for straight up hehehe. The trick is to take the mint leaves and just lightly crush the leaves between
two spoons to let out the mint flavor.

But you guessed that hehe.

Edit: there are at 10 others I think are good enough to go. Some of them won't for one reason or another and some late bloomers will show up too. I'll be writing about them soon. I just mentioned the top three or four for now.

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Quick update

Some good prep races this weekend where some possible contenders will meet one another head to head. Also was nine late nominations for the derby. This will provide valuable information or clues to who's gonna be in and not. Regardless, some good racing cuz you don't pay those fees unless the horses are fit and good to go.

Some horses are lazy and don't train well but shift gears when there is competition. These are learning expiences for these youngsters as well. So not winning isn't always an indicator of what to expect derby day.

Will have more to say about individuals after the preps.

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@marble

Forgot to add for juleps I used crushed ice. Not any kind either but one done by an old hand cracked contraption. The kind people used to have ages ago on bar carts...

Which helps make my juleps thee best eva!!!

Just remembered I forgot to add that after I spotted it in the kitchen.

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God, Belle

I hope I run into you when that ice cracker is handyheart

Ruffian
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Not much le

Learned from this past weekend except for what I expected. Once top contender Mr Z has stopped progressing. Also a bunch of new horses on the scene. One trainer is shy of being able to enter half the field and one other has the top three. This means they have not met in the prep races and very few have ever met so it's impossible to rate them now.

On the other hand that will change this weekend in the wood and a few others. So for now the top three remain just that.

In Dubai california chrome lost again and now his owners are taking him to royal ascot. This is pure madness, then again they are idiots anyway.

Oh well more later...

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Homestretch

For final preps and points begin this weekend.

Some of the top horses will actually face real compeition in the wood, The bluegrass and Santa Anita derby.

Also this past weekend all eyes were on Dubai meydan track where a colt by red hot dubawi named Mubtaahji was outstanding. He's trained by an animated mike de kock from south Africa and he's red hot too. However, it's hard to rate him against American dirt horses. But he's so good I'll have to have him on my tickets. He ran and one two two turn races min 3 weeks! Can ya say iron horse? He'll yes!

Also a horse named el Kabier is just wonderful. But questions on his distance remain. Just love hi, he's another of my future wager round 2.

Carpe diem a top 3 candidate will be tested. More on him after. Also will see how daredevil does. His last race was a puzzle. Also frosted a horse who was brilliant until he nearly dead stopped in his last race will be tested as well.

One more of the Pletcher never ending entries is out for good but no problem he has 20 more to burn out. I really try not comment much on his and Baffert horses until closer to race day because their breakdown ratio is obscene. One said win or
die trying. That's exactly what happens most years.

Co favorite dortmond really is all that but ya gotta worry about a 17 hand, nearly 1300lb horse that's still growing joints. American Pharos we know he's good but he needs the lead and he's gonna have to earn it and wire it too.

The bottom line is this race of most likely starters is all speed and stalkers....el Kabier is the only legitimate closer I can see so far. But as I said don't know if he can hold the distance yet.

Also idont advise playing derby future wagers unless your a degenerate gambler like me. It's really stupid cuz it starts before the horses ever run. It's just a stupid thing that began with a bunch of likeminded nuts like me.

This race is a crap shoot every year but this year so many talented. Gonna be a great betting board for sure.

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@marble i

Never put it away hehe... I just have to make sure I have fresh mint on hand.

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A little Name Fun

IBRunnin

TailOnFire

NoQEforMe

Blackcoffeejolt

Chemtrailkiller

LivesToRide

LivesToWin

RuffsGoldDaddyPuff

SweetSweetGoldenDream

NoDollarGimmeGold

(Nipper) SweetDevilIncarnate or GivesTheDevilHisDue

BreatheMyDust

NimbleFootedNemesis

ItsJustMyTail

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Ruffian
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Oh my gosh flyinkle

Your hilarious. I love several of them but a few are taken.

A few I had : eternal damnation, point blank, Weirdress , full metal hatchet

Love, just love : no dollar gimme gold and no QE for me or if I may no Zirp for me. I'd bet they get rejected tho. Lotta people on the board are wall street and govt people.... Secretariat was the 10th name submitted. I'd love to submit Putin and netanyahu just to piss off a lot of people. They would be rejected tho. wanted to name one after our host but I hate the first name ( even with my potty mouth) that alone would guarantee a rejection as well.

I never register them unless I'm keeping them tho. I almost exclusively keep fillies for breeding if their pedigrees are excellent or a full or half sibling has had success. But ima keep a few of yours for my list.

Really got a chuckle ... Needed one thx!

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Even better

FollowMyTail.  I think yours are great too, especially Point Blank for some reason.  My favorite was NoQEforMe.

I woke up having a ball making up horse names for some reason (in my dream), was still half out of it but had some amazing names, which then escaped me once I was fully awake.  Isn't that weird?  Maybe it should be Weirdress!

Ladies? Got Dem Breedin Hips, Need For Seed, FAB Fertile Filly, Doing The Testtube Tango, Hatching Gold,  Stallion Star Seed, Pillow Talk, Stomping In The Stall, Roan Of Arc (play on words for Joan of Arc), Gimme The Goods, Stamina Sting, PutInTheSeed (could then be shortened to "Putin" for everyday use, Big Net And Yahoo (could then be called Netanyahu).

Have a great day.

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Ruffian
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Preps sucked

The top three still remain the top three.

No one got close enough to dortmond to even smell him. Bolo a top tell didn't fire at all very disappointing for a top 10.

Frosted who had dead stopped in his last race ran a good race on a dead track. The fractions were ridiculously slow. Even so I still like el Kabier a long shot for the derby. He was the only one running. Haven't figured out the time splits yet but he was smoking. He came from dead last for 3rd. An impossible task with no speed in the race coming from dead last way off the pace.

Carpe diem also showed his class but had no real challenge either.

Can't figure out daredevil. His last race he barely was in a canter yet managed 2nd this race he was near dead last. He took a serious bounce in end of year breeders cup. Yet, his workouts are good. Have no idea what is wrong with him...or if someone is doing some funny stuff.... Wouldn't be the first time a horse was sedated...

Hard to figured in the son of dubawi.... Godolphin wants this race bad, he hadnt left the winners circle in Dubai when they announced they are going to the derby. No doubt he's a fine horse but meydan surface is different from the USA and I have to do some math converting meters to feet to get the time. Also need the speed bias as well. Don't need any of that tho to see he's a serious horse.

Baffert is really protecting top rated American Pharos. Tells me he's concerned about reinjury.

And recently nominated dubai sky is out with a cannon bone fracture... There will be more to drop...sad. This is why Sam riddle owner of legend man o war passed on the derby. He knew it was too early in the year for 3yrs olds at that distance. Then again the derby didn't have the prestige then that it has now.

I'm sure I'll have more to say. These are just random thought after watching live. I can tell more from the replays...where I can slow them down and concentrate on single horses.

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Ruff

Apparently I have been written out of FJ's blog for saying "Trust must be earned", a truism I have always found.  You can demand courtesy and respect and get deference, but trust is something that accumulates over time. 

So history has been re-written in the blog, Flyinkel was never there, like much of history always is; truth is often an uncomfortable bedfellow until many see and experience the same things at which time it becomes OK for a group to believe a certain way.  So history becomes "his story", but it often isn't an accurate account of what actually transpired.

I have been authentic and truthful in every single post, and I have no regrets other than to say yesterday I did write you a fairly long possibility to explore regarding your brother and would like to know that at least you got a chance to see it.  It talked about hugging the dogs.  Did you see it?

You have a big heart, it was already talking to you,  I just wanted to help you to actually hear it, find your truth and act from there.  All the best.

P.S. In no way am I asking you to somehow choose sides, it just doesn't matter.  We will all meet our maker some day and much will be revealed, I can wait.  Curiosity just wants to know whether writing you was a totally wasted endeavor.  Have a great day.

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@flyinkle

I did read read your post. However, as most times I needed to reread it before I replied and it was much too late to even think of a reply.

Apparently, something happened in the thread and I was not privy to it or it went way over my head. So while I don't know what happened or why. I am disturbed and sorry that it did.

Yes, I remember the dogs. I do it every day and night.

Edit: none of this makes a bit a sense to me.....

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Just a few

More preps and races. The race to watch this weekend is at oak lawn with cofavorite American Pharos. He's been pampered in all year and he is in easy. If he does anything less than trounce the field he's highly suspect.

Also Pletcher with a nearly half the field is down to 3 or 4... As expected. His newcomer materiality is a top notch horse with nearly no racing experience this is a big big drawback. Carpe diem is the real thing .... But ,.. Well more after I see him work the notorious Churchill dirt.

In my mind Dortmund and mutaabiji are the two dominant horses. Dortmond is his sire big brown without his bad feet ,.. Yet that is. And mutaabiji is proven distance winner and the fittest of them all. Also frosted ran better than he looked and el Kabier not as good as he looked after I crunched some numbers.

So as we know the fastest and best horses doesn't always win the race. Which is why it takes a dominant horse to win the crown. This field is deep with very evenly matched horses. So the next step will be to see who actually enters and then figure out the pace.... This will be hard cuz it may turn out like last year when the field was loathe to challenge Cali chrome.

Once I can determine if the pace will be hot it will help to identify the tosses or horses I won't be playing. That's when I take my horsey cap off and put on my handicapping hat on to figure how to make cash on the race. That means I needs tote odds.

But if they ran the race today I'd put my money on Dortmund and mutaabiji. I really can't decide...I'm not tossing a few others tho.... Really can't wait to see the tote. I'm hoping the bettors hammer American pharaoh cuz I think he us vulnerable at 10 furlongs.... Which reminds me Mr Z And American pharaoh have the same owner, different trainer. Mr Z looked done but he's in to go this weekend cuz he needs points... But he's trained by a wizard named d wayne Lucas and if wouldn't be the first time he's turned one around in a flash.

Have more to say as they begin arriving in KY.

Edit: cuz several asked mubtaahij means like really happy, excited or thrilled in Arabic. Or something like that. My Arabic is about as good as my english...

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@flyinkle

I have more to say and ask but truthfully I've been so keyed up I decided only the devil could help me tonight and ima bit turnt up.

Worse all my clients know I'm here and every time I start writing the phone rings and I'm derailed.

I reread your post again and now I'm really wondering what the hell!

Be well!

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"Filler" Re: Dust-up @ EQ

After reading Flyinkel's Comment #14 on this thread, I went back to Enquiring Minds in search of a little clarity.  All I can tell you is that my final Comment there is still there.  It is Comment #1554 on Pg 78.  But several things I wrote previous to that are gone.  So...I'm 1/2 welcome there, I guess...and Fly's response to my #1554 is 'Poof'..Gone.

One can go further back on that Thread (EQ) and still find some Flyinkel contributions to the Saga of Nick and January, so maybe Fly is only 1/2 written-out on that blog (?).  But he (if memory serves correctly) is certainly a 'ghost' from Pg 78 forward.  And this is not me desiring to know anything more about what happened but, rather, me desiring to help Ruffian 'fill in some blanks' regarding the 'implosion'.

Personally, I admit a bias on Flyinkel's behalf because I tend to treasure the names of those who have helped me along the way, whether it was their intent to be of assistance, or not.  It's kind of hard to explain.  But I really enjoyed the writing we were doing in Les Halles...and I miss the inspiration Fly brought to me, and the encouragement I found interacting with him. 

This is no disparagement of FJ, either.  But my heart doesn't inform me beforehand how it will distinguish between men, or why it will find love here and not there.  And Flyinkel, just like I Run Bartertown, will always own a very special niche in my heart because, though they knew it not, they helped me when I was in deep need of a 'helper'.

It's funny how these things go; how one man sharpens another, like iron sharpens iron.  And it's funny how one man says, "Huh? This ain't no big deal."..and the other man says, "Brother, this is HUGE! Thank you..Thank you..Thank you!!" 

'Nuff said.  Be well, Ruffian.  It is always a delight to hear what you have to say!

Dale

P.S...How's that for a Kentucky Derby thread!?

P.S.x2...I ASS-U-ME Flyinkel is a 'he'!!  lol    

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Ruff and Just Dale

There was no "brush up".  I wrote that one line "Trust has to be earned" and "poof" I was gone; it was the first new line I wrote in days on EQ.  I wasn't angry at being "disappeared", but I do think it's a "slippery slope" where, in a rather Orwellian moment, the past is rewritten as if it was original and authentic, and it isn't.

We do have some very bad people calling the shots right now in a shadow government, the same ones that allow false flags, arrest innocents, and attack other countries for invented reasons.  One of the key items is to turn "good guy" against "good guy" so "bad guy" can just stand back, laugh, and watch the implosion.

If you look back at FJ posts he states he was in Russia multiple times, and the desert for quite some time.  This is usually govt, govt contractor, diplomat or some variation thereof.  When you start to speak agency personnel it gets murky, most are stove piped in their knowledge intentionally so that the capture of one doesn't sacrifice the whole lot.  The same folks that are willing to lie to make up false flags are also now doing this on our own soil to citizen patriots, created dossiers, invented "facts".  These folks talk amongst themselves but often have no real measure of what is true and what is not, only what is written that they see--the official version.  (my example of the helicopters I wrote for Ruff where they were protagonists would be written up so as to say they were hunting a hot lead on a criminal, and presto you just became a criminal worthy of being hunted)  So I don't know FJ's background but it is apparent to me that "crusader for truth" meets "crusader for truth" and one is now in control of the thread and disappears the one that is not.  I would not have done that to him, or to any other person for that matter, but I am not him.  Nor would I have edited anyone else's comments, it's part of an open and honest communication issue to me.

We are all souls evolving, sometimes we will be conflicted souls evolving, no-one is perfect, not even FJ.  Of course I am :) ... Not!  So off we go trying to do the best we can for humanity, to get folks to live in peace, not war, some sense of integrity and truth to it all.  It is wasted energy to assume what you think a man knows, I don't have a clue.  I do think he has helped many and I do hope that he manifests in this life, his good intentions that he puts out there.  He does seem to be a good guy.

Best advice I can give, sit quietly within your heart and listen.  What makes you feel good?  What makes your heart sing, your face smile, what raises your energy level, what makes your day?  Do more of that, it's usually a good thing!  Just Dale, I am glad I could be of help, that is awesome, you are a gifted writer and I truly hope you continue...as should you Ruff.  I want you to feel free to write on any thread you want, there is no "woe is me", I will just move on living life with gusto elsewhere.  Sometimes, you just have to cut a few strings and not look back.  All the best.

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Flyinkel: May I just say...

....that I haven't been posting much at all on any of the Forums lately.  I think my last post on EQ was dated 3/15 and, like I said, it is still there.  But it certainly is peculiar (some might say Orwellian) that several of my additions to the "Saga of Nick & J" are now gone.  Strange...strange...strange.

I saw your post re: Trust is earned...and I didn't give it a 2nd thought. I DID refer back to FJ's post you wrote "in response to", and it still seemed fairly innocuous to me. Certainly, nothing untruthful or worthy of a great kerfuffle. I thought that the big brouhaha was ALL about S Rex flaming GC @ DOTS + EQ.  Also, I never detected any 'woe is me' from you, but it's still difficult to imagine why you were 'disappeared' & why I was partially moderated/censured.  Oh well, like you say, sometimes ya' just have to cut some strings and move on along.  

And DOTS, to my way of thinking, has certainly turned into something 'other' than what it once was.  Call it what you will (progress, evolution, DOTS 2.0), several people who once were 'regulars' have left...apparently for good.  To me, that is just, plain sad.  And, I don't think any of this crap is accidental!

Soooo...in general, I have been moving away from the Forums @ TFMR because the vibe (to me) has become quite strange, a bit creepy, and a tad unsettling.  But that's just me.  And the 'Markets' and 'Charts' stuff is way over my head, anyway.

I get what you just said, too.  I value what you have to say.  I wish you well.

Dale 

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@flyinkle

Hey this a big place with room to expand.

Thank you for you guidance and advice. I think I should start another thread called ruffians efffd up life.... actually I was thinking about starting one called what pissed me off today hehehe or something like that !

Plz dont take this the wrong way but I get a lotta private mail about horses.. And sometimes, no most times, it's easier to just post on here.

Some may doubt me but I really don't understand a lot of things....

Personally, I didn't see anything that bothered me but as I've said before it takes a lot to piss me off... I'm operating in what is still mainly a male biz and back in a day a few smart ass boatahs got a shiner from me. 150lb or more man ain't much a challenge to me but now a days I don't give a rats ass.... oh btw, I cheat tho... It's called leveling the playing field!

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