Ukraine,Russia and the western Warmongers

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thurd aye
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Ukraine,Russia and the western Warmongers

In response to Boswell,I am attempting to open a new forum.Knock yourself out guys and gals.Personally I get my info from a variety of sites such as The Saker,Col.Cassad,Russia Insider.there are many honest sites revealing the action of the day,V.a.v,Ukraine etc.

cheers,

TA)))

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thurd aye
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http://www.counterpunch.org/2

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/01/23/genocides-not-wars/

interesting mid-section to this article

"President Obama was certainly perfectly aware of all those ‘proxy wars’ and maneuvers, for years and decades before he became the President of the United States. His father, a Kenyan economist, was recruited by ‘Tom Mboya’ (Thomas Joseph Odhiambo), then flown to Hawaii, indoctrinated/educated there, and finally sent back to Kenya, in order to steer his country away from the possibility of a socialist path."

His mother’s second husband, Obama’s stepfather, and an Indonesian officer, Lolo Soetoro was yet, another recruit and a traitor/collaborator, serving the West. When he met Obama’s mother, he was undergoing training in Hawaii. Then, after the horrid 1965 US-sponsored coup took place, he was flown back to Indonesia (1966), and Obama and his mother followed him just one year later. They lived in the upscale Menteng neighborhood of Jakarta.

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Boswell
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Hey, Thanks!

I was just looking for a place to post that link...

"We" can read the other thread, but can't post to it.

Silver Sooner
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Ukraine Sources

I'm going to try to make sure I C&P anything I post to this thread also.  In addition to thurd eye's sources, add

http://fortruss.blogspot.com/

Silver Sooner
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Russia's Ukraine Strategy

From fortruss:

"When the word comes ‘it’s time’"

1/28/2015

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

If one is to speak without geopolitical complexities and nuances, the situation is extremely simple. This is a battle for the continent, for the international system, for one’s own taiga. They are desperately attacking us and are trying to take us down quickly. They use all means at their disposal, except for direct military intervention on Russia’s territory. They are destroying Russians outside their borders, they are raising foreign legions in order to invade the country. The West undertook to destroy us for the simple reason it is trying to avert its own destruction. The main factors are the destruction of the economy and of the political authorities of Russia.

The main factor that might allow them to accomplish this is the decay within Russia, a split within the Russian government, the spreading of hatred among the people. That’s the reason for the constant provocations and the divide-and-conquer policies: inter-ethnic animosities, hatred toward the state, toward big capital (specifically the pro-Russian), toward the Orthodox Church, toward its own people and everything around it. All of that is being done to get Russia to destroy itself from within. But that’s precisely what is not happening. Everything is breaking apart against the unity of the government which has the support of its people which feels as if it was in a besieged fortress together with its leader. Even capitalists like Usmanov, Vekselberg, and others, who chose the West, moved their assets from offshore accounts back to Russia. Even Shuvalov swore his loyalty to Putin in Davos. To say nothing of ordinary mortals. No matter how much is said about “Putin the billionaire” and the government for sale, in spite of all the problems and the worsening financial situation, the solidarity with the national leader is not only not growing weaker, but is getting stronger. What is more, the people want him to act more firmly and not compromise with the West, no matter what the cost.

This is what angers the West so. It is trying to promote division and chaos in Russia but it is not happening. The only remaining possibility is to try to destroy the economy, to deprive Russia from access to dollars (which for the West itself is the equivalent of hara-kiri), or to convince Russians that Putin is their enemy and thus deprive him of his national support. Yes, the so-called patriotic maidan. There is an opportunity here, but a small one. And it is closely tied to the situation on the Donbass. It’s a primitive calculation: keep shouting that “Donbass was abandoned”, “there are idiots in the Kremlin”, “Surkov sold out”, etc. Putin is kept out of the line of fire in the first round, and the whole emphasis is on the myth of a palace coup (i.e., Putin was betrayed, they are deceiving him). But they are also pushing the “Putin abandoned the Donbass” line, and sooner or later someone will shout “we have no Czar!” and “down with the Czar!”. This, in a situation of conflict with the West, ought to help topple the “Putin regime.” Donbass is being used as leverage to increase dissatisfaction with the Kremlin: if you introduce Russian forces, you become an international pariah and Hitler (which is more or less how he has been labeled), if you don’t send in troops, you are a traitor.

Moscow chose an intermediate approach of containing Western aggression (until the x-hour) and indirect military confrontation on Ukraine’s territory. Yes, this is not the best variant from the perspective of the Donbass inhabitants. Moreover, it is a forced strategy based on the current realities: Russia’s forces are insufficient for a rapid victory over the consolidated West which, even though it is a giant clay feet, is still the dominant force in the world. As part of this post-Crimean strategy, Russia is taking steps which are far from obvious, but which nevertheless allow the aggression to be repelled. Yes, the position adopted by the eternal critics, who demand a cardinal resolution of the Ukrainian question arguing that it will have to be done “sooner or later”, may seem just and attractive to a patriotically-minded people who suffer at the sight of the dead inhabitants of the Donbass. But the critics don’t want to understand that in their desire to strike the final blow here and now, they are helping the West by forcing the Kremlin to strike when the West still has sufficient power. But the time is working against Washington. Even though it is assembling foreign legions against Russia and is taking Russian lives every day, it is not accomplishing its own task of destroying Russia in the nearest few months. To remove it from the world map as a single political unit. Break it up as an organism. If you want to take up the fight “sooner”, you may not find yourself living in Russia “later.”

If the majority of us understand it with our hearts and minds, then the final victory will be Russia’s. But if we stray from that path, even with good intentions, in the hopes of solving the problem here and now, we will lose. Everyone’s duty right now is to help the Donbass to the extent they can, and not give in to emotions, even if they are sincere or provocative. Be fully prepared for the moment when the word comes “it’s time.”

Spartacus Rex
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UAF storm Donetsk Airport, get their asses handed to them by NAF

FULL VERSION [Warning: Graphic]

Spartacus Rex
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.

.

Spartacus Rex
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A Walk On The Wild Side

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All Wars Are Banksters' Wars

thurd aye
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Some more links,Ukraine

Some more links,Ukraine .

FortRusshttp://fortruss.blogspot.ca/
SouthFronthttps://www.youtube.com/user/ygfront
Kazzurahttps://www.youtube.com
Russia Insiderhttp://russia-insider.com/en
Colonel Cassad in Englishhttp://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/

and, of course, the rest of the Saker community, esp   Oceania Saker  with Pepe Escobar,one of the stars writing.

Oceania Saker: http://www.vineyardsaker.co.nz/

white rabbits.....TA)))

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Spartacus Rex
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Ukraine: “We Target Civilians.”

Separatists: “Their Targeting Maps Prove It.”

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/ukraine-target-civilians-separatists-targeting-maps-prove.html

Silver Sooner
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Ukraine Update 2/2

It's been a few days since I posted a situation update on the war in Ukraine, so I thought I would get something up as there have been some significant developments.  Please understand that these are merely "snapshots" in time and things can change rapidly.  Also, the sources listed above in this thread are the exact same ones that I watch hourly and while I try not to duplicate content that can be found elsewhere, I do try to summarize the overall situation for those who aren't daily monitoring the events in Ukraine.  So for those who haven't been watching, let's get caught up:

-Summary. Overall, the situation on the front lines remains generally unchanged, with the exception of the deteriorating situation (for Ukrainian forces) around Debaltseve.  In the last few days, the forward-advancing efforts of the 3-week-old Novorussian offensive has for the most been limited to the area around Debaltseve where approx 3,000-5,000 Ukrainian forces are (for all intents and purposes) "cut off" in a truncated area of the salient.  Here, Novorussian forces are compressing the salient and all signs point to an eventual catastrophic loss for the Ukrainians at Debaltseve.  These recent/looming Ukrainian defeats in the Donbass, and the absolute failure of the 4th Ukrainian mobilization are creating incredible pressures and internal threats on Ukrainian President Poroshenko as internal fractions and mutual blame are becoming more and more public.  So, as the next 3 weeks play out, it is not out of the realm of possibility to see a Maidan-2.0 and another violent overthrow of the current Kiev junta.  That's the nutshell version, now here are some details:

- Debaltseve.  While the road in/out between Debaltseve and Svetlodarsk is not physically closed, it's effectively closed as Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) have firing positions shelling anything that goes in or out of the Debaltseve pocket.   As mentioned above, there are about 3,000-5,000 Ukrainian troops here and any supplies they are getting are limited at best.  Instead of attacking the village of Svetlodarsk at the "mouth" of the entire pocket, NAF diverted their attack further south to Uglegorsk where the Ukrainian defenses were much thinner.  Thus, NAF created a truncated pocket here and is pushing on both sides (east/west).  The Ukrainians can't really get in to help, nor can they really get their forces out--and they're running out of ammo.  Over the weekend, Ukrainian counter-attacks on Uglegorsk completely failed with one incident really highlighting the lack of Ukrainian coordination between units.  It's also reported that NAF's Air Force (one Su-15) has flown a combat sortie here and actually destroyed 3 Ukrainian vechiles.  Additionally, there are a lot of reports from Ukrainian sources saying their commanders in Debaltseve are fleeing, leaving their men without command.   Thus, it appears only a question of time before Debaltseve falls, resulting in another humiliating defeat for the Ukrainians.  The numbers of troops lost/surrendered/captured here won't in-and-of-themselves be so harmful to Kiev, but rather the political/leadership debacle this defeat represents could be catastrophic. ***More rumor/conjecture/analysis on the Debaltseve situation at the bottom of this post***

Map of Debaltseve area.  Debaltseve is lower center.  Svetlodarsk is upper left.  Uglegorsk is lower left.  Red lines/arrows are NAF.  Blue lines/arrows are Ukrainian forces.  Gorlovka is off-map to the west.

​- Minsk. Last week there were half-hearted attempts by both sides to negotiate a cease-fire under the old Minsk format.  Basically, Ukrainian representatives asked for a return to the originally-agreed demarcation line (which, by the way, was never accomplished as the heavy weapons/rockets were never pulled back as they agreed to).  NAF representatives stated that the only discussions will be from a basis of the new, existing lines of contact (ie, the land NAF has fought recently to occupy won't be given up).  All of this is just noise.  President Poroshenko CAN'T agree to NAF's pre-conditions and NAF isn't about to give up their new positions.  The chances of anything serious coming out of this are next to nil.  

​- 4th mobilization.  The recent, 4th Ukrainian mobilization is a complete failure.  As has been posted here and elsewhere, some Ukrainians are loading up in buses and heading to Russia so that they can avoid the draft.  Others are flat-out refusing and some mobilization stations have seen protests across the country.  Reports are that the mobilization is only getting about 10-20% of the planned infusion of new bodies!  I have no way to confirm that number, but sub-40% is probably the reality.  

​- Aydar in Kiev.  The last couple of days have seen ~500 members of the private Aydar battalion blocking the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense building in Kiev and burning tires outside of the building.  They're protesting the supposed disbanding of their battalion.  What is important about this is it demonstrates the problems and lack of unified command throughout the Ukrainian "forces".  Understand that what is generally called the "Ukrainian Armed Forces" is a mish-mash of regular army and national guard, as well as privately-funded "territorial battalions" (Aydar, Dnepr-1, Donbass, etc.), Nazi destroyer battalions (Right Sector), and Ministry of the Interior "security" forces (Azov).  There is no consolidated command nor unified logistics/supply structure, let alone common loyalties.  It must be understood that Kiev's current military power is highly unstable.  

- Yarosh.  Right Sector (and current Ukrainian Minister of Parliament), Dimitri Yarosh was recently injured during fighting in the Donbass.  Last week, while recovering in the hospital, Yarosh announced plans to create "a parallel General Staff."  Again, remember that there are major distinctions within the what we call "Ukraine Forces"...the official Army/Nat. Guard, the "territorial battalions" (aka, private armies) and the "volunteer" battalions (Right Sector).  What Yarosh basically announced was a parallel command structure for the "volunteer" forces, OUTSIDE the normal chain of command.  Yesterday (Sunday), he clarified his remarks in that this is meant to be "an operational HQ to coordinate the activities of mainly the volunteer formations."  Yurasumy (whose articles are often translated on fortruss) very perceptively picked up on the fact Yarosh numbered the "volunteer battalions" at 40.  This number would have to include the territorial battalions who are already included in the General Staff chain-of-command.  So if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck....  I think Yurasumy correctly deduces that this is a plan to have a separate command structure in place and ready in the event control needs to be seized away from Kiev and maintained by the really radical warlords. 

​- Poroshenko.  Given the updates above, it goes without saying that there is a lot of pressure on Ukrainian President Poroshenko right now.  Recall that Poroshenko's "party of peace" did not win the majority of seats in parliament during the November elections--that victory belonged to Yatsenyuk ("Yats") and his "party of war."  As a result, Poroshenko's grip of control on Ukrainian "governance" isn't what it appears.  The last several days have seen a lot of open blame-gaming between both sides as well as with the likes of Yarosh.  There are also more and more militants moving into Kiev (remember the 500 Aydar troops above).  Right Sector has also announced plans to form a "13th reserve battalion" which will be stationed in Kiev proper.  We are also approaching the 1-year anniversary of Yanukovich's ouster (Febuary 20th).  What this all adds up to is a lot of radical militant presence in the capitol and a lot of discontent with the current president.  Several analysts are putting "two-and-two together" and deducing that Poroshenko's days are numbered and it is quite possible his usefulness is at an end.  There are a lot of thoughts on how this scenario could play out, but not many give Poroshenko (nor Yatsenuk for that matter) a chance of living through this coup.  The thought is that a military victory in the Donbass is now impossible...and that the "transition brokers" (aka Washington) now need Ukraine to descend into a complete mess to justify sending western "peacekeepers" into Ukraine to reestablish order.  Thus, if the current Kiev government collapses, then the radical Nazis (Right Sector and Kolimoisky's private army) will have free rein in Ukraine and the west will then move in to "stabilize".  Whether this happens or not remains to be seen, but given the overall situation at this point, it seems more than plausible.    

-----------

Thoughts/Opinion/Conjecture

- Both Cassad and Yurasumy have stated that NAF's main assault force has yet to enter the current operation.  Now I have no way to know whether or not this is true.  But let's go with that assumption and that the Novorussians didn't simply launch an offensive to merely push-back the front lines by a few kilometers.  

- According to Yurasumy, Debaltseve is NOT the main objective.  Resolution of the salient is important, but its purpose (as well as other advances along the front) is more to tie-down Ukrainian forces and create openings in other areas.  

- Ukraine has moved A LOT of forces around Mariupol (south along the Azov Sea coastline) anticipating a NAF assault here.  This seems logical and I won't question that eventually, Russia needs a land bridge to Crimea.  But, two things.  1.) NAF would be stupid to directly assault Mariupol.  It's easier just to encircle it and move on to Byerdyansk or Melitopol.  2.) the military principle of "surprise" says that you go where you're not expected.  If everyone expects Russia to make a move to connect to Crimea, why do what is expected?  

- Ukraine seems to be amassing troops north and southwest of Donetsk.  Today, Ukraine began to shell the area north of Donetsk: in Russian/Ukrainian operational tactics, artillery bombardments usually precede assaults.  It's probably safe to say that Ukraine will try a strike on Donetsk city from the north (airport area) and south in the next few days.  If the shelling increases, it's probably a certainty.  NAF COULD be holding their (assumed) reserves to repulse this attack and/or counter-attack.  

- But here's my WAG:  the one area during this latest phase of hostilities that has remained relatively quiet is the area north of Lugansk.  Yes, there's been some fighting here, but nowhere near the scale or intensity elsewhere on the front.  IF Ukraine's forces and reserves are sucked down to Mariupol and Donetsk to the south...as well as to the area around Svetlodarsk/Debalsteve...what is left to defend the northern extent of the original Lugansk Oblast?  Remember also that in the summer, Ukraine tried to encircle the breakaway regions by advancing between the cities and the Russian border to the south.  Also remember that this strategy ended in disaster as the forces all of a sudden were encircled with several "boilers/cauldrons" resulting in the complete destruction of about 3 battalions.  I mentioned at the time that the pictures showing the destruction of these battalions sure seemed to indicate a level of precision only capable by highly-informed, highly-trained professionals (aka, the Russian Army).  Why couldn't NAF launch a huge "right hook" north of Lugansk, capitalize on the "North Wind" from the Russian border to their east, and circle around behind Slavyansk, or even push towards Kharkov?  It would open up a lot more "Voentorg" supply opportunities along the Novorussian/Russian border, as well as shorten the same said supply lines.  It also would put pressure on Kharkov who currently has probably the largest and most active partisan movement of the remaining big Ukrainian cities.  I mainly think this because it's the one area not being talked about.  Anyway, who knows...we'll see.  

That's it for now.  The next 3 weeks are going to show a lot.  Keep an eye on Debaltseve, discontent around Poroshenko and what happens in Kiev between now and the 20th.  I'll post again if the fog clears anymore.  

FJ
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Thank you so very much for

Thank you so very much for this comprehensive update, greatly appreciate the efforts made in aggregating this information, it requires an immense amount of your time.

gazzmann
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WOW

Brilliant stuff SS! I still feel the lack of fresh men is going to really hamper any plans Ukraine has. If I have the right take on your presentation, then Ukraine is on the defense on the battle field. But with their own fresh recruits now apparently fleeing, some to Russia no less, they are now decidedly on the defense with their own people. I would agree with what I think your take is, and I mentioned before, that Poroshenko and Yats are already done. They're gone, and I think anyone involved with Right Sector is about to get a rude awakening.

Throughout this entire con job, whether one likes it or not, Russia is coming across as the only entity that has made any sense in a "sane" world. That's why Ukrainians are fleeing to Russia. I wouldn't be surprised to see the fleeing Ukrainians join the battle on the opposite side, in some attempt to save their country. At that point they'll be fighting with the heart needed to win battles.

Thanks SS

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Thank you

Silver Sooner, thank you!

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Brookings Wants More Villages Firebombed...

in Ukraine’s ‘Anti Terrorist Operation’

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/brookings-wants-villages-firebombed-ukraines-anti-terrorist-operation.html

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Ukraine report mentioned in newest JB SFC

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2015/02/ukraine%20independence%20russian%20aggression/ukrainereport_february2015_final.pdf

thurd aye
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cauldron Uke news

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Spartacus Rex
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What Steven F. Cohen & Other Liberals Get Wrong...

About Obama & Ukraine’s War

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/02/steven-f-cohen-liberals-get-wrong-obama-ukraines-war.html

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The Saker: US weapons deliveries and Novorussian mobilization

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2015/02/about-us-weapons-deliveries-and.html

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Anyone know how big a bomb

Anyone know how big a bomb has to be to be seen from outer space?

www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-08/meanwhile-donetsk

 

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