Looks like part of the Bitcoin rise lately has been due to Greece according to https://www.dailyinflation.com
"Bitcoin, the digital crypto-currency, has seen a significant rise in price since last week when it was reported that Greek citizens were using it as a store of value rather than keeping money in their personal bank accounts." "People are betting that we’ll see a repeat of when Cyprus was in financial difficulties some years ago, and Bitcoin went from an exchange rate of $60 to $300 in a short period of time, and that’s why the price is primarily rising."
"Bitcoin, the digital crypto-currency, has seen a significant rise in price since last week when it was reported that Greek citizens were using it as a store of value rather than keeping money in their personal bank accounts."
"People are betting that we’ll see a repeat of when Cyprus was in financial difficulties some years ago, and Bitcoin went from an exchange rate of $60 to $300 in a short period of time, and that’s why the price is primarily rising."
I still feel very hard done by that I'm no longer able to comment freely on front page articles (without paying) but it is what it is. Despite that here I am again.. (deep down in an obscure part of the forum)
In response to last post I think it is very noteworthy that bitcoin rose so tellingly during the Greece debacle. (And gold and silver pushed even further down I might add). To me this is a clear sign that the bitcoin market is not yet so easily controlled and Gold and Silver are 'still' on a tight leash. Bitcoin is a wild animal at this point.
And looking at whats happening in response to Greece, seemingly a safe haven!
Craig would do well to attach a little more prominence to the rise of crypto money in my humble opinion, afterall this is supposed to be a watch tower for the end of the keynsian experiment. To ignore crypto is a big ommission in the formation of whatever follows the next financial calamity.
Anyway, I anjoy a bit of technical analysis so here we go with a bitcoin chart.
After putting in a bottom somewhere near $160 bitcoin now seems to be starting a new bullish phase. I haven't marked it explicitly on this chart but there is a well defined cup with handle still forming. This is a bullish formation and likely prices will soon rise again.
Hi James, sorry for long delay in replying. In fact I don't have any price projections for bitcoin. I feel bitcoin is cheap at the moment. In gereral I think crypto has a big future but perhaps (or not perhaps) not all of it belongs to bitcoin if you get my meaning, crypto is going to be huge, will bitcoin be the one? I'm not yet sure.
A few alternatives that I like to watch are Dash and Monero which both place more emphasise on privacy. Crypto is an exciting field of innovation.
I bought a little mining hardware over a year ago..not really investment more for tinkering and learning. Haven't paid attention to the btc price in quite a while.
Jeff Berwick's latest notes on Bitcoin: (unfortunately the charts and pics have not transcribed, but still useful):
BITCOIN RISING AND USING GOOGLE TRENDS TO PREDICT MOVEMENT We covered the recent rise and volatility in bitcoin in a special alert to subscribers last week but here is an interesting angle for predicting and gauging the price of bitcoin. Bitcoin interest, according to Google trends, has increased in recent months after remaining steady for most of 2015. An academic report recently demonstrated that Google Trends can predict price action in bitcoin, making the recent revelations noteworthy. 24 www.DollarVigilante.com Google Trends interest in the blockchain (the technology that makes bitcoin possible), furthermore, has also reached historic highs. On the chart below, you see the 2011 chart for Google Trends interest. Now, you can see a similar chart for the bitcoin price. 25 www.DollarVigilante.com You can see the similarities between the Google Trends data and the bitcoin price during 2011. Between April and May bitcoin begins its first monumental price increase to nearly $30. In the chart below, the price changes and Google Trends interest in 2013 — the so-called “Year of Bitcoin” — is displayed. 26 www.DollarVigilante.com Once more the correlations are clear. During the most recent increase in Google Trends’ bitcoin interest, interest over time in the keyword “USD” seems to decline. Why is Google Trends important in understanding the bitcoin price? According to new research from the University of Cagliari, Italy, Google searches follow bitcoin price trends. The academics studied USD trading volume alongside Google Trends volume in 12 months leading into this past July. The new paper implies search volumes for the keyword “bitcoin” can predict currency market volumes. 27 www.DollarVigilante.com Furthermore, many chartists have cited previous bitcoin price breakouts as evidence that the current increase in the price of bitcoin - which Bloomberg called “surging” - is here to stay. We can look at past interest in Google Trends to learn more. There have been many theories as to why the price of bitcoin has increased from $200-$250 for most of the year to $500, before falling back down below $400. Theories include demand out of China, either from a ponzi scheme or fear of capital controls; a Money 20/20 conference in Las Vegas where many fintech companies announced new bitcoin-based projects, and, also, the introduction of the regulated exchange Gemini, owned by the Winklevoss twins. Bitcoin is the first currency that can be fully tracked in real time. This means that every single transaction can be instantly seen and identified, and therefore, unlike with other currencies, all manner of statistical modelling can be employed to try to gauge currency flows, see trends and even predict future price. This, alone, makes bitcoin the most interesting currency in the world. ARBITRAGING LITECOIN/BITCOIN Litecoin was designed by Charlie Lee in 2011. It was first marketed as digital silver while bitcoin was marketed as digital gold. Litecoin’s current market cap is more than $180,000,000. There will be just over 43 million coins digitally mined, compared to bitcoin’s 21 million. It’s current price is $3.90. At the start of October, before bitcoin started its appreciation to $500, Litecoin’s price was around $3.88 - virtually unchanged on the month. Could now be the time to invest in Litecoin before the price moves on the heels of potentially another monumental bitcoin price surge? Comparing the bitcoin (BTC) price to Litecoin (LTC) price gives us a feel for the price fluctuations between the two cryptocurrencies. Traders may want to determine from the bitcoin-litecoin ratio which cryptocurrency will perform better and then short the overvalued cryptocurrency and buy the undervalued currency hoping to profit from differences or exchange between the two at ideal prices over time. People do this with gold and silver, focusing on the gold-silver ratio to do so. There are two main approaches to analyze the price correlation between these two cryptocurrencies. There are the ratio extremities, wherein dramatic changes in recent trends - such as the current increase in the BTC price determine the overall outlook of the market. Then there are general tendencies, the tedious daily trades made in seconds, minutes and hours. A look at the charts demonstrates correlation between the bitcoin price and the Litecoin price. This is to be expected precisely because people relate the two to each other. This psychological connection automatically implies some correlation that could spill over into price implications, and in the case of LTC/BTC does. Some investors move from fiat currencies into BTC then into LTC once the price of BTC increases beyond the point of reasonable perceived value. In general, when bitcoin surges, this leads to a crash in LTC/BTC, followed by an increase. Also, on average, it can be observed that the LTC price decreases with the BTC price in USD terms. It is important to note that, since these markets are so novel, the trends might not be as dependable as other, longer established markets. 28 www.DollarVigilante.com Charlie Lee, the designer of LTC, has made certain statements about the LTC price, such as it is not surprising that LTC drops if BTC trends downward: “The inverse will also be true.” Lee elaborated: There’s not enough mined BTC/LTC to explain the price drop. Mined coins only represents a small fraction of the BTC trading hands on exchanges […] What I have seen time and time again is that the price fluctuations shake out the weak hands, those that bought high and get spooked and sell low. Of course, there’s always a chance the price will stay low or even go to 0, but that’s why you should not be investing money that you can’t af ord to lose in such a speculative vehicle. Now, let’s look at some charts. In this long term LTC chart, you see LTC’s dramatic price moves from March 2013. The price increased from less than 0.005 BTC per LTC to approximately 0.015, before consolidating down to 0.10 at the start of April. In April, the price forms a base before surging to about 0.035 BTC/LTC. You may remember 2013 as the “Year of Bitcoin.” The price climbed from $13.50 to $1,200 in December - a more than 5,000% increase in one year. The price topped $1,000 USD by November 27 and, in early December, peaked at $1,200 before crashing. In March 2013, as the Cyprus government instituted currency controls and a bail-in, bitcoin increased to $40 and then quickly doubled. Cyprus pushed the BTC price to $200. After the banking crisis settled, the price fell to $60. During the Summer, bitcoin stabilized, what some call a “summer lull,” but despite that BTC was in the process of a monumental surge in value. In December, when the BTC price reached $1,200, the LTC price followed, though it did lag behind a bit. As the BTC price increased to its $1,200 peak, many people claimed LTC was dead since the cryptocurrency remained at around $2 USD. About a week later, the price surged to $49 USD. The chart below shows a virtually valueless LTC/BTC skyrocket to more than 0.04 at the end of 2013. 29 www.DollarVigilante.com Traditionally, in terms of LTC/BTC correlation, BTC’s price changes first. People tend to sell LTC for BTC when BTC begins a major price increase, which dampens the LTC price temporarily. On the above chart, the market cap increased by approximately 40 million in about 24 hours as bitcoin shortly consolidated. During this, the LTC Price in BTC terms increases from just under .01 to .12. Now, let’s look at the past month overall (October-November 2015) in the BTC/USD market. 30 www.DollarVigilante.com In this chart, a high is reached on October 30, before the decrease in BTC price through November 1. This period sees LTC/BTC increase, including trading volume, which hints at more LTC demand as BTC lulled only after a considerable BTC price increase. On November 2nd, a dramatic acceleration in the BTC price begins, peaking at $500 and falling back down to below $400. As I write this, the BTC/USD price is $391. LTC/BTC has tumbled to one-month lows. CONCLUSION Based on our conclusions, the current bitcoin price increase could be in its early stages. Thus, with bitcoin now consolidating, we can expect that LTC/BTC is doing the same; that, if BTC is indeed in the middle of a 1,000% surge, as it has done multiple times before, the LTC price is due to surge as well, but only after bitcoin. Therefore, if bitcoin is in the midst of another 10-fold increase, then Litecoin is not the place to currently invest. That place would be in bitcoin. This means LTC purchases can wait. If BTC increases, and this jaunt back down to sub-$400 is consolidatory, then selling BTC at the next peak for not only fiat, but also LTC, could enable you to remain exposed to cryptocurrencies while avoiding the risk of a large drop in BTC after it runs.
Thanks Mantis - for your reply. Nice analysis. I agree with you about more prominence for Bitcoin - but some gold bugs seem to be very focused on gold and silver alone - they have yet to peceive that bitcoin is functionally VERY similar to precious metals. They will learn in time - pity they might miss out on the massive rises that will come.
You will have noticed that we appear to have entered a new leg up - and, according to The Dollar Vigilante (Jeff Berwick) could see an increase of 10 times - i.e. $2,500 area (or higher?). See my post of a few minutes ago.
James Crighton wrote: Thanks Mantis - for your reply. Nice analysis. I agree with you about more prominence for Bitcoin - but some gold bugs seem to be very focused on gold and silver alone - they have yet to peceive that bitcoin is functionally VERY similar to precious metals. They will learn in time - pity they might miss out on the massive rises that will come. You will have noticed that we appear to have entered a new leg up - and, according to The Dollar Vigilante (Jeff Berwick) could see an increase of 10 times - i.e. $2,500 area (or higher?). See my post of a few minutes ago. jc
And just like Fiat, Bitchit has ZERO intrinsic value!
But PUMP ON.
I hear Drug Dealers, Smugglers & Fences really dig that chit.
Mine any Bitchit lately?
You should all be aware of BitSim / Fuzo - an ultra-secure hardware wallet that fits in-between your mobile (cell phone) and SIM card:
If that is what you feel about bitcoin then just stay away from it. Why troll this area?
I'm sure you realise that informed and intelligent investors - such as Raoul Pal - and many others disagree with you. But, heigh ho, keep your blinkers on if you want.
James Crighton wrote: If that is what you feel about bitcoin then just stay away from it. Why troll this area? ... jc
You mean you can actually touch that Chit?
I thought it was all "virtual" / ether whatever.
To answer your question, sorry for the reply, however your post appeared in the comments section and it's a slow night. What can I say?
You didn't answer my question however, have you mined any Bitchit lately, or is that passé now?
Thanks for posting all the info.. I have been out of the loop for a while.
I do not think the major companies that are investing millions and maybe billions of dollar are doing it to lose money.
They probably know more behind the scene's info to justify the capitol investment.
I say with out a doubt it's going higher.
they ain't worth shite, but I picked up another one with the dip.
You can too
Like that was a very good idea!
Thanks for posting btcgoldbull - but I don't have access - did not renew my subscription to RealVision as it was too, relatively, expensive - the only pieces I was interested in were the bitcoin ones - and they were too infrequent.
Would you, therefore, mind terribly, writing two or three sentences updating what Raoul presently feels about bitcoin. At his last interview - about a year ago - he predicted a price of at least $100,000 by 2023 - probably 1 million.
Thanks and best wishes
Unfortunately I do not have access either but, like you, I recall him mentioning that in his opinion Bitcoin was worth somewhere between $100K and $1M
But does matter, the fact bitcoin has no intrinsic value , just as long as it remains an honest unit of account free from politico-banker manipulation? The only reason it is volatile is due to comparison with dishonest currencies.
On Mike Hearn, Block Size, and Bitcoin’s Future (self.Bitcoin)
submitted 37 minutes ago by bitledger
My new years resolution was to avoid the block size debate. Oh well.
Regardless what you think of block size debate. Mike Hearn and his tactics have done nothing but pollute the well. He has been intransigent in development, his proposals were routinely shut down because they were horrible on a technical level, he had many dangerous ideas which undermined the very concept of Bitcoin. When he made no traction with his idea, he created his own Bitcoin client.
Because that wasn’t enough he began politicking users to switch to his client. When users found no technical benefit or improvement over his client and failed to adopt it, that wasn’t enough. He then found a tool which he could use to drive a wedge into the community, and drive adoption to his client or so he thought, the block size. Rather than offer constructive support to this issue, he recruited Gavin and others to create this imaginary war that did not exist, of a Bitcoin mafia vs the people. Coincidentally, it was during this time that he became concerned with the block size that the spam attacks on the network beginning happening. Heckuva coincidence.
Mike, in his dramatic style, made the proclamation that bitcoin is forking and with that he introduced a new level of politics to Bitcoin beyond what it had ever experienced. In addition, Mike has managed to make the scaling issue, a complex technical issue, into something that is a political litmus test, like abortion, or gun control, something that was sorely missing in a technical community.
As if merely raising the block limit would fix Bitcoin’s problem in his eyes. Mike is smart enough to know that wasn’t the case, but it didn’t matter because by turning something complex into something simple, he was able to sell the story, to people who weren’t interested in the technical nuances, but wanted something to hang their beliefs on. His ideas were perfect fodder to those adopters who were suffering in Bitcoin’s long bear market. Mike had the answer, bitcoin is suffering because the devs refuse to scale it. Mike Hearn had a simple solution, just change a number, it's so easy, any lay person can see that. Clearly if you opposed such a simple change you had ulterior motives, the people in opposition where trying to steal bitcoin.
Mike worked in front and behind the scenes like a dogged politician to create this imaginary timetable that bitcoin was about to explode and collapse, watch the price he said. Creating sensationalist media posts that were technically flawed, and painted bookworm engineers, who have done nothing but work in the best interest of Bitcoin, as scheming backroom politicians who were co-opting bitcoin for their meglo-maniacal ambitions (project much Mike?) When the time table for Bitcoin’s, life or death decision came and went, and bitcoin did not collapse, and no one adopted his client, he cried foul. Ironically, Mike laments that Bitcoin is the hands of 10 developers (not true) yet he had appointed himself the benevolent dictator of his coin Bitcoin-XT.
Why was the Bitcoin community not falling on its sword and adopting his plans? It’s probably because again, the secret cabal was conspiring to suppress his ideas. His ideas which were spammed over social media, which got thousands of page views, which generated hundreds if not thousands of hours of discussion. Despite all this, no-one knew that Mike had this beautiful solution to rescue bitcoin, all because this evil mafia conspired to deny freedom to Bitcoiners around the world and keep his ideas a secret.
Meanwhile actual developers are moving forward with proposals that will scale bitcoin but Mike says that isn’t enough. Despite his incessant nagging, driving XTers to brigade every bitcoin discussion, ruining technical discussions in the development mailing list. That still wasn’t enough. Nope, unless Mike Hearn got his way, Bitcoin is a failed experiment. Mike Hearn’s goal was never about Bitcoin, it was about wrecking Bitcoin. There is no way you can reconcile his tactics with someone who put Bitcoin first.
No one had previously proposed forking Bitcoin to their own client, without calling it an altcoin or alternate implementation. Even Garzik was clear about it in discussion with Satoshi himself. Mike was the first to introduce the idea that creating your own implementation of Bitcoin, which is not compatible with other implementations, and changes a core function of bitcoin with something as low as 75% approval, was not an alt version of bitcoin but was still Bitcoin. Amazing, He has attempted to change what was an accepted and understand aspect of Bitcoin.
Now forking Bitcoin is a grand idea, Bitcoin forks for everyone. Forking Bitcoin is not something new, it has been around since day one, and the community had agreed that a fork of Bitcoin, without unanimous consensus, was an Altcoin.
People who care about bitcoin do not promote Altcoins because it’s clear this would fracture Bitcoin and undermine the very method in which bitcoin secures itself. But in Mike’s world people should undermine their investment in order to get a better investment.
Bitcoin has shown that the economic consensus mechanism works, that the consensus will respect the protocol. That if the time to change the protocol comes, it will be a change that is readily apparent, and will be adopted unanimously (Mike, that means without opposition.) Because from an economic interest it makes no sense to undermine bitcoin by fracturing it. And so surprise, suprise, bitcoin participants are making rational economic decisions. Bitcoin is not a democracy where 51% rules. In fact that is Bitcoin in a state of attack.
Still the very fact that Bitcoin has continued to function, and even begun to rise again precisely when it was supposed to be collapsing, was a slap in the face to Mike Hearn. So the final stroke a front page NYT , “you can’t fire me I quit ” announcement with a dramatic companion post all over social media, as If Bitcoin has lost some key intellectual power.
Sorry Mike, but Bitcoin is not yours to fail.
The best thing that could happen to Bitcoin and Mike Hearn is a final divorce, though messy it has been. But has Mike really left us? Something tells me he hasn’t. Instead Mike’s new job will be to further the new meme that Bitcoin is a failed experiment and he should know because he was a “lead” developer who worked directly with Satoshi.
And for proof, this morning I watched the Brookings Institute Webstream of their conference Beyond the Blockchain. The very first thing thing Charley Cooper of R3 CEV (Mike’s new employer) brought up was how Bitcoin was failed according to Mike Hearn, how Bitcoin was not going anywhere and that the future was private block chains.
So let’s congratulate Mike on his new role, where he will work to undermine bitcoin at every turn in front of regulators, banks, VCs and the public. At least now Mike can stop pretending what his real goal has been all along.
Because this has never been about raising the block limit or about or about a technical issue. This has been about co-opting Bitcoin into either Mike Hearn’s coin, or something more nefarious, on behalf of greater powers.
Mike, Good Luck, Stay Strong; I wish you the best.
Hard Forks: Bitcoin Upgrades Harness the Free Market
MATT ODELL • LAST UPDATED: SEP 15, 2015
Editor's Note: The following analysis is theoretical because a planned hard fork of this magnitude has never occurred before in the history of Bitcoin.
The recent block size debate has brought the issue of a hard fork front and center since it will be necessary if there is change to the Bitcoin protocol to allow larger blocks. A hard fork occurs when a new version of the core Bitcoin software is no longer backwards compatible with older versions. Many in the Bitcoin community fear the uncertainty of hard forks, but in reality it is a process that will allow Bitcoin to continuously upgrade based on free market consensus. There is nothing to fear, you will not lose your bitcoin, and the market will sort itself out in time.
The result of a hard fork is two block chains growing independently of each other from the point of the fork. Essentially two independent “coins” emerge (let's call them bitcoin1 and bitcoin2), and however much bitcoin you own pre-fork will be duplicated to both bitcoin1 and bitcoin2. This is important because it means that as long as you control your own private keys, you WILL NOT lose any bitcoin during the hard fork process.
“There is nothing to fear, you will not lose your bitcoin, and the market will sort itself out in time.”
“There is nothing to fear, you will not lose your bitcoin, and the market will sort itself out in time.”
1) You own 25 bitcoin before the fork
2) Fork happens
3) You now own 25 bitcoin1 and 25 bitcoin2
When a fork happens, miners, full node operators, and Bitcoin companies will be essentially “voting” on their preference by choosing whether or not to upgrade to the new version. It is important before a hard fork that the overwhelming majority of those entities are willing to go with the upgrade, in order to make sure the process goes as smooth as possible. Gavin's proposal requires a certain percentage of all miners to be operating the new software before the fork occurs and he has implied that he is in back room talks with many of the major Bitcoin stakeholders to make sure the new software has their support. However, an overwhelming majority may not always be attainable, and in that situation both block chains will be competing for dominance.
If one block chain doesn't become the dominant one right away, the free market will ultimately step in to decide on a “winning” chain. Exchanges will begin allowing users to trade bitcoin1 for bitcoin2 and vice versa, and the free market will decide on the value of each. As it becomes clear that one of the “coins” is valued much higher than the other, stakeholders such as miners, full node operators, and Bitcoin companies will end up choosing the fork with the higher value. As more of these stakeholders choose the higher value fork, the value difference between the two forks will diverge at an increasing rate, ultimately resulting in one fork having basically no value as users rush to sell all their coins in that fork for ones in the more valuable fork. This process should happen quite quickly as it is a positive feedback loop. If you are the gambling type, the situation presents an opportunity to make a lot of money (or lose a lot on the opposite side), but if you are conservative then you can just take a wait and see approach and your bitcoin will not be at risk.
How to be prepared for the hard fork?
The most important preparation for a hard fork is to make sure you control your own private keys. With or without a hard fork, we usually recommend users control their own keys anyway, making it much more difficult for malicious companies or governments from seizing or freezing your bitcoin. Now with a potential hard fork coming it is absolutely imperative that you control your own keys. Storing your coins in a custodial wallet such as Coinbase (where you don't have control of your own private keys) will result in you being forced to follow the fork that Coinbase chooses, rather than having duplicate coins on both forked block chains. If Coinbase chooses the wrong fork, then you are out of luck, the guarantees I mentioned earlier in this piece wouldn't apply to you, and you could lose all of your money. The easiest way to control your own private keys is arguably through the use of properly generated paper wallets. We have an easy to follow beginners guide on generating cold storage paper wallets that you should follow, and store the majority of coins on those paper wallets before the hard fork occurs. By doing this, you will have complete control of both the bitcoin1 and bitcoin2 that are connected to your private keys and you won't have to depend on wallet developers to upgrade their code.
You can learn more about the block size debate here.
If you have any questions, feel free to post in the comments or to tweet at us @CoinPricesIO, or our Executive Editor @Matt_Odell or through email matt[at]CoinPrices[dot]io