A beautiful chart - /GC weekly

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TaurusCanis
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A beautiful chart - /GC weekly

​Please indulge me in the use of the word beautiful here, I'm a techni-gold-bug.

Weekly charts are powerful indicators. Institutional investors won't use any lower timeframe, and they rarely buy anything below it's 50 week moving average. Sometimes a 30 ma is used, but 50 is a very old standard.

And this should print as a solid technical week towards broaching the 50, setting up a solid breakout move within the next 1-3, and getting the attention of swing traders. We just need to get a good day tomorrow for the print....  and big picture and all, I think we will.

 

In case you can't read my notes:

Higher volume on up weeks, lower on down weeks.  Trading solidly above the 8 and 12 week moving averages.Good consolidation, indicates a shakeout of weak hands.

Crossing the 50 wma at 1269 is the target, and is a strong buy signal after 1 full week of trade action over it.

MACD ready to cross. The last of the three technicals here to give a buy signal.   All three
are at lower levels than the previous two attempts to break the 50 wma this year, which
 indicates a strong move up is at hand.  Both stochastics and RSI are in marked uptrends.

A 'Coiled snake'.

regards,

TC

(bd for the latin impaired)

 

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Not to be outdone, /SI is just as purty

Everything I said above about gold, goes for silver. Excellent consolidation, excellent technicals with room to run.

This will be a process of stair steps up, jsut like down... strong resistance at 19-21 range and then at 24, and then the 30s. We're probably a ways from the later but if it can markedly break, and stay above the 50 wma, I can see it playing in the mid 20s within several months, or sooner.

Another coiled snake.  

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The SPX weekly

is breaking down.  Marked four cycle pattern, with this cycle topping. Next 3-5 weeks are likely to be down. All three technicals are exhausted, and turned.  Failed to bump it's upper channel on three of the last four runs.  Volume on down weeks markedly trending higher.  MACD and RSI trending down. Deeper lows.  Next run on trough (marked by 50 wma on lows) will likely broach it.  

Short term at support at 8 week ema, which coincidentally next week is close enough to 2000 next week, to call it that.  2K is a critical foothold for SPX.

I've watched it all week...  today's action was especially weak... without the big order on the open, it would have been ugly.  I don't think the bid stack will be near as big tomorrow am.  Weak action like today's, from there and it will be a lot of red.  Today's action looked like day traders trying to play the bounce.... they bailed at the close with the far heaviest down volume ticks of the day in the last 30 minutes.  That's never good.

 I highly doubt the 8wma (2035) will hold tomorrow, and the 12 - 2000, tested... maybe broken.   I'm short as of yesterday...  via SPXS @ 20ish, .
 

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SPX

....  performed to my expectations.

Once again, daytrading bulls trying to play a bounce.... weakly and half-assedly so, and bailing at the close. I didn't get my SPX 2000, close though. Very close.  I will Monday.   

Next week will be ugly across the board.  Next week we will see big funds and mar holders taking out shorts for insurance....    Dripping daggers of red on every chart.

No christmas bump this year....  no new year rally.

This fiat ponzi is coming apart at the seams and the pace of it's demise will pick up exponentially as it falls.

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NYSE top

This is the top.  

The Dow, QQQ, Russell 2k and SP 500 have near identical charts.  

The bull market that started in Q2 2008 has topped, and each indice will be officially complete after a full months close below its slow moving average (28 for NYSE).

Metals will pop, but will be range bound by the Oil gold ratio, which is near .04, it's lower end. Oil at 60 gives a top of gold at $1500.   Strong gold run will likely stabilize crude, maybe pull it up a bit even.  40+ year oil/gold ratio is a range of  .04 to .16.  .04 = 1 oz gold will buy 25 barrels of oil.  Top end .16 = 1 oz gold buys 6 barrels of oil.

Miners will fall with the market.   They will see improved profits from low energy costs, likely starting next quarter for most.  All commodities will benefit from lower energy, and book higher margins going forward with low oil.  Gold pops, it should stabilize their price.  but they won't be buys until their charts can turn against the general market.

Disclosure...
Open orders for long FAZ and PSLV on the open. 
Long ERY, SPXS, BRIZ.F, UEC and SGDM. Au/Ag in hand and on deposit at Goldmoney, US treasuries / IG bonds in my IRAs/401ks.  And a bit of farmland.
 

I'm not even a college grad, much less a finance professional... so my opinion is really worth squat. That said, I've been able to build a nice little nest egg with my own study and due diligence. 

Do your own due diligence before investing. 

Regards and good luck.

bd

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PSLV - Sprott SIlver Physical Trust

PSLV has an excellent trend correlation with its moving averages on it's daily chart.

An excellent proxy for silver.

Above the 8 exponential and 24 simple it is very strong, between the two - sideways, and below both - weak.  Crosses mark entries/exits.

A convenient method for swing trading.  As an etf, gains/losses are taxed as capital gains/losses as opposed to 'collectible' rates on physical sales.

I'm long at the bell.

Regards.  

DYODD.

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Crude divided by Gold

Thc C/G ratio looks to be a significant buy signal.  

When the MACD crosses, and price closes above it's moving averages for one period, we'll be a full bull scenario. I see the Feb close marking that event.

A coiled snake.

regards and good luck.

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SPX Bull 95-00

Weekly chart for the S&P 500 index from 1995 through 2000. 8 exponential,  18 simple, moving averages selected.

Note the down trends of the lower indicators, and all 6 oscillators ticked down at the far right.  

Weekly price action (not shown) has three down weeks breaking through, but not past, both moving averages.

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SPX Bear 00 - 03

Price broke through the MAs, marking the bull/bear switch, and all oscillators bottomed, then changed trend and made their respective crosses for buy signals.

The Red vertical line marks the price crossing it's MAs into the bear market, the green the cross to the new bull market.

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SPX bull 2004-2008

Very good action above it's trends.

Same lower indicator oscillator trends and ticks up and down as in previous bear bottom to bull top.

 

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SPX 2008 - 2011 Bear

Identical trends and triggers to previous.

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SPX bull 2008-2014

All we need now is the crossover of the moving averages and the MACD to downtick, and it's a bear market.  As I said previously, I expect that formality to be marked on the final February chart (at the latest).

This has been a strange runup.  Far to many low volume moves, very little correction.  All technicals have been in oversold range for 2 years or more, at exhaustion.  There isn't the marked downtrend as in previous bull tops, but if I check them manually there is a slight downtrend in all oscillators.  MACD cross needs to tick.

I included the Fibonacci retracements,  with the 100% set at the last bull top.  In the current environment I think a 25% loss to the 1551 level for a February close could be to the conservative side, but a call I feel comfortable to make here.

Summary of lengths of markets based on my moving average crossover rules - a trend changes with a period close fully above or below both averages.

Bull - March 1995 to November 2000  -  5 years, 9 months.

Bear - December 2000 to June 2003  -  2 years, 8 months.   8 years, 5 months for the cycle.

Bull - July 2003 to January 2008   - 4 years, 5 months.

Bear February 2008 to July 2009 - 1 year, 6 months.  5 years, 11 months for the cycle.

Bull - August 2009 to now      - 5 years, 4 months.  

Bear 2015.   We've retraced all of a stimulus driven market once before, and I see no reason to think we won't do that again.  With the extreme sentiment - ie exuberance via consumer sentiment and 95% bull market,  junk bond contagion, incredible amount of open margin, I can see this playing out as a blood bath.   2008 all over again, but with twice as much room to fall.

Regards and good luck.

 

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