Dr. Jerome's Comment Corner

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vonburpenstein
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Dr. Jerome's Comment Corner

This should give folks the ability to make comments on dr. J's most recent opine...hope it works...

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vonburpenstein
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Very interesting....

...When you think about it, but when we look back at many "events" in history, it's easy to see the 'canaries'.  What is good this time around is that we are more aware now of the point that the canaries even exist...Doc J always seems to have a way of making things clear from a different angle,

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vonburpenstein
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just thinking here...

....(and trying to get this forum going). I think the swiss gold Initiative is one of the canaries.  This article seems to be fair at covering both sides.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=108439615

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treefrog
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canaries...

the first canary i remember seeing was sept '65, when i arrived back stateside after being in school in paris.  that was the first time i encountered the post '64 cupronickel sandwich coinage.  i had a good background in classical history.  i can remember quite clearly my dismayed reaction -

"oh, shit! they're debasing the coinage!  we're in trouble."

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Turd Ferguson
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This is a great idea

Excellent idea for a forum thread!

Dr Jerome
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Canarys

For some reason I thought the canary metaphor we use today was just that, a figurative linguistic device, that actual miners and canaries were from the long past rather than the recent past and in wide use.  I was shocked fo find all the pics on of miners with their little personal canary cages crawling around in the mines. 

   

Nana
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Dr Jerome

Thank you for your articles, time and work...

Dr Jerome
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Thank you Nana

I woke up yesterday with this article in my brain. I tried to sit down and grade essays and had to write about gold first. I didn't finish my essays after relatives began showing up for our first of several thanksgiving dinners got underway. I guess I'll get to it today.

BagOfGold
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WOW!...Dr. Jerome's Comment Corner!...

This brand new hangout...I like it in here!!!...

smileysmileysmiley

Bag Of Gold

foggyroad
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Maybe?

I wonder if a comment thread for each resident Guest Poster, might help direct traffic to a viable ongoing comment discourse.

*

I understand the needed change that really had to occur due to the various Sh%tdisturbers that came here to mess up TF's lovely House.

Ingrates with a mission of disruption at the behest of who Knows, some other miserable lowlifes, the point is it was needed.

It was getting pretty messy and uninviting.

*

The problem now as I see it and maybe I am wrong, ( I was wrong before, 1964 I think it was :0) , is really a traffic flow problem.

I think with the obvious intelligent Turdites, this problem could be addressed fairly easily.

Maybe this is a Start in the right direction, I really feel the problem now is one of too many choices for the inexperienced back street navigators.

I think this has made it difficult to congregate on a topic on a thread and keep a discussion going, maybe this was part of the desired objectives, I don't know or maybe it is an unintended consequence.

If unintended then it can be resolved, in consideration of maintaining TF's initial purpose of limiting rampant bickering and troll crap.

**

I think an essay should have a comment field, whether via Author Specific, or Essay Specific.

These could be via a link in the essay, or a pre -set up location for each guest Poster.

Each comment thread link could be removed from each essay after twenty four hours, or at the posting of a new essay, or in the event things started to get messy.

Not the comments just the link to comments in the essay on Main st.

Porch remains clean, messy comments could be further discontinued at the back street comment thread if so desired.

**

Either by shutting down further comment or by sending all further comments to a new contrary, curmudgeon, troll beating up thread, where all trolls maybe verbally pounded into sidewalk sticky stuff, you know that stuff we all step in but have no idea what the hell it is.

******

Trolls of renown should be punished for their nasty behaviour by only being allowed to post in the troll zone for a time out period of 48 hours.

Their avatars should indicate they are sitting in the corner with a cone shaped hat upon their pointy little heads.

Early Parole return of posting privilege could be returned only after their posting something beneficial being credited with 7 hat tips, self hat tipping gets a -3 result.

No eight hat tips no big yellow Hat, furry footed fops with pointy little heads.

Hah. take that zcerealjazzmountedmans.

​Pointy hats with propellers, and sticky floors that pullout the fur on the bottoms of your feet.

CNN, MSN, The View, Thom Hartmann, and O'Brien all in surround sound all the time, ah, ha Ha Ha.

Cramer and Kruggman Too.

Ok maybe I got a little carried away in the moment there but it was fun.

******

It may be as simple as a tag on the bottom of the guest Poster's essay to redirect to a specific thread set up for each author, either by essay or Author specific.

I am just thinking out loud here but maybe all we need is a little traffic control, like a traffic circle sends you to one of three main arteries. ( I guess that is what the Porch already does.)

Backstreeters like myself are familiar with negotiating our way to our destination, but newbies may be slightly overwhelmed by the multitude of choice, this leads to disjointed duplicate competing threads and a sense of disorientation.

I am not advocating limiting choice or thread generation, only a little user interface auto guidance, or linking to get a comment thread going and easy to get to and follow a little more intuitively.

I propose these items be cost neutral, ie. not having to incur software changes, just refining the existing back streets.

A/  I think we have two or more treads, Spart, LL, Hammer's a location to comment on daily events, this could be stream lined or a single set of thread structures.

B/ Daily Stuff thread inputs thread,

Resident Authors specific inputs threads,

Resident Authors essay specific threads,

TF free Blog input threads,

I am just throwing stuff out there for discussion.

*

This was all done quite quickly, and with the boards input, and knowledge of TF's thoughts and feelings, maybe a better flowing structure can be conceived and implemented conducive to TF's purposes.

*

I guess what my point is, is we need to maintain a user friendly traffic flow system to get the comments available to be read and added to easily, while still maintaining a clutter free front porch, a pleasant invitation to TF's posts.

Maybe a little contemplation on what level of flow, is desirable, and a little tweaking here and their, can accomplish the well defined objectives decided desirable.

I am available to brainstorm, I have a stormy brain, and travel a foggyroad in a very fast car.

Come to think of it,

Maybe I might not be the right guy to design traffic flow:0)

Love to All.

foggy

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Great idea for a thread…

Dr. Jerome,

Another outstanding article by you, and thank you Von Burp for making this forum.

By the way,

“Little Fix"  destroyed her competition in a high school debate this week, thanks to those fine rhetorical skills you shared with us, her teachers were stunned!

  It is amazing what can be learned here! 

Thanks again. 

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Dr Jerome
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Mr. Fix

Glad to hear of her success!

silverwood
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Why is it taking so long? Turkey talk!

MARKETSMore: Nassim Taleb Black Swans

NASSIM TALEB: Consider The Thanksgiving Turkey...

myles-udland.jpg

  • NOV. 25, 2014, 12:57 PM
  • 3,911
  •  
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Nassim TalebGetty Images / Andreas RentzNassim Taleb

See Also

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HERE IT IS: SocGen's Famous Chart With The Swans

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How iOS 8 Completely Changed The Way You Use Your iPhone

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How The Secrets Of The Samurai Can Help You Achieve Laser-Focus

In the financial world, everyone loves to talk about "potential Black Swan events." 

Societe Generale evenreleases a quarterly chartof "Black Swan" risks. 

The concept of a "Black Swan" event takes its name from Nassim Taleb's 2007 book "The Black Swan." But there's a slight problem: acknowledging an event's possibility means it can't be a Black Swan.

To wit, SocGen's most recent Swan chart says that further deterioration in the economic situation in Europe poses a risk to the market. And like, objectively, a European economy that performs poorly is bad for the market. But this also isn't a Black Swan. Or, can't be a Black Swan. 

A Black Swan is an event or occurrence — a tail event, as Taleb would call it — that is so remote that it is completely unforeseen. 

(In fairness, SocGen doesn't call these "potential Black Swans," simply calling this their "Swan Chart," but the "potential" phrase gets thrown around a lot, and a chart with pictures of black swans makes pretty clear what the firm is intimating.)

The famous example Taleb uses in his book is the Thanksgiving turkey.

"Consider a turkey that is fed every day," Taleb writes. "Every single feeding will firm up the bird's belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race 'looking out for its best interests,' as a politician would say.

"On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief."

Here's Taleb's famous chart. 

turkey talebWikimedia Commons

This is basically the book's entire message wrapped up in one graphic. 

The problem that Taleb is really attacking in his book is forecasting, particularly economic forecasting, and the practice of using past events to predict the future. 

Using inductive reasoning to forecast future events poses, for Taleb, not just something potentially useless or wrong, but something that actually has negative value. 

"Consider that [the turkey's] feeling of safety reached its maximum when the risk was at the highest!" Taleb writes.

"But the problem is even more general than that; it strikes at the nature of empirical knowledge itself. Something has worked in the past, until — well, it unexpectedly no longer does, and what we have learned from the past turns out to be at best irrelevant or false, at worst viciously misleading."

And this is really what the problem of Black Swans is all about. 

It isn't that we can't know the future, but that we delude ourselves into thinking we can, making forecasts about events that are inherently unforecastable and giving us false belief about what can or will or might happen in the future. 

When a Black Swan event really occurs, it will seem outside what had previously seemed possible. But Taleb would likely argue that this event only seems outside previous beliefs about what was possible because of how we arrived at those possibilities. 

Namely, by using the past to forecast the future. 

Just something to keep in mind as you sit down to enjoy your turkey on Thursday.

Or perhaps this will serve as fodder for light conversation with distant relatives this weekend.

Either way.

Read more:http://www.businessinsider.com/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2014-11#ixzz3KIjzGXDW

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Turkey Talk.I love it.  

Turkey Talk.

I love it.   This kind of thing is like the universal anti-.   It can be used to undermine darned near any forward looking or forward thinking.

I probably should be upset since I do forecasting for a living and this Taleb fellow is coming down hard on that idea.  I'm not though because I'm good at what I do and am mindful that nobody can know the future.

Like using the nine dots to illustrate thinking outside the box it's a great ice-breaker and good to get everyone to wake up.

Back to Dr. J's territory:

I think the Keynesians have won another round.  The USA has somehow convinced or tricked so many other countries into doing the same foolish thing that it is actually working.  I realized this  (forecast it)  at least 2 years ago and tried to get a few luminaries like Jim Sinclair to engage in conversation to either agree that as long as enough economic players stayed in the QE race it would actually work as designed or to show me how I was looking at the possibility wrong.  Not that we like it, not that it is wise, not that it is just etc but that despite the judgements we cast on it, it might actually....'be'.  Let me say that Jim won't budge.   I took a more careful view of his words after that.

And it will continue to work for another 5-8 years.  At least.

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.Dr. J oil derivatives

From the main forum which I can't post onto;

Oil derivatives

Submitted by Dr Jerome on November 29, 2014 - 11:44p

I notice that Turd's angst over markets is NOT due to the possibility of a Comex failure in metals, but regarding the derivative contracts on oil trading.  I'd sure love one of our experienced traders give us a primer on these kinds of derivatives. Are we talking about option contracts on futures? or is their something else altogether?

Hey Doc I'm no expert but from my investing in oil producers I know that they prudently hedge their forward production and they use derivatives which are most likely option contracts. I believe they enter contracts that give them the ability to sell so many barrels of oil at a certain price. With this in mind mature oil producers who have hedged their forward production for the next few years will weather this downturn much better than anyone whose wells were just beginning to produce recently and wasn't able to hedge.

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Sunday and the Dr. chimes in again so I comment.

Relax and enjoy your financial fire insurance.  While deep cleaning the house in prep for Christmas gkids to mess it all up again in a wonderful way, I listened to every Willie out there this weekend.  For those who know why America need be fractured and broken up for world rule, you'll never, ever give up what resources are available to kick the neoCONzi's arses back to hell.  Free people have real money controlled by the people and out of the hands of banksters and political parasites.  Stay the course as we're close.  The bulk of american citizens will be searching the streets for what possible daily devaluing dollars will purchase in anything of a survival nature, let alone exchanged for any real money gold or silver; remember to live free and gather in like minded communities if you haven't already.  Crap storm arising and we the real people don't want to be dependent upon anything but our God given intelligence to live free regardless of circumstance.  Don't get fogged out of your stack and come up short 100 yards from the new free republic we will build.  Difficult times ahead but take courage friends and know the God of our Fathers is with us to preserve our country.  The few will dominate because with God we are many, many, many more than they.

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Comment on Main Street post by Dr. J...

Dr. J posed articles that question "when?"

Answer: nobody knows.

We do know that the western financial system, led by the bankers, has sought a One World Order for many years.

There is a singular reason for that--so they can control everything through their fiat money.

The bankers have the best monopoly money can buy--they CREATE money.

There were a few countries that did not buy into the western system.  Iran, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria.  The banking elite cannot allow for any country to have something other than western style fiat, as it may cause others to take notice.

It has taken over a hundred years for the bankers to get from the 16th amendment/Federal Reserve to almost conquering the world.  Will they run out of gas/gold before it is complete?

If they do conquer, how long will they sit on top?  China, Russia, ME, and India sit on top of much gold, and much energy resources. 

Will their oligarchies be any better for their people than the bankers have been to our people?  Or, will the bankers and their ilk simply move to those areas, and leave the U.S. a broken, indebted and drained country?

The people do not understand the western, fractional reserved system, or that something else could exist, let alone be better than this atrocity.

It seems to me that the western pols and bankers intentionally sent western gold to China, so that there can be no other money system here than their fiat.  They essentially stole the peoples' gold and sold it in order to keep the money fiat, and the people cornered.

It's what bankers do.

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@ Ancient, Dr. Jerome

I think the answer is a longish now (Since August actually - remember also the record outflows from London this year that accelerated dramatically in August).  

They have spent the last few months making sure that any reader with any remote interest in Gold now associates Gold with rejection - either because the sensible and conservative Swiss have also rejected it - or because it is announced to be used by ISIS the terrorists - or because it is a 6000 year barbarous bubble relic in addition to being an "irrational" choice when considering options in times of crisis - or at the very least because it is only able to go down in price - or <go ahead and remember more of the psychological hit pieces>.

(Btw - I find it interesting that Willem Buiter comes out with that 6000 year statement - when he also came out earlier this year warning about severe bail-ins after the EU stress tests in an interview, where he was pretty much shooting straight in my assessment)

Oil is telling us that the shit is hitting the fan now. Unless oil flips very soon (maybe already too late) I feel certain that we will not be alone in the potential pile of minced meat next week. (If that is any help at this point). 

The largest bunker fuel company in the world went bust in early November due to fraudulently managed risk exposure to a subsidiary with un-collateralized oil credit. One has to wonder how many other companies use that kind of credit arrangements, who are now being defaulted on, because the expected selling price has dropped so heavily. The first bankruptcy from around the 10th November resulted in 7% of all bunker fuel deliveries disrupted with goods shipping delays to follow. The banking exposure seems to be a relatively small amount, but one never knows where the daisy-chain will start breaking. The banks involved have so far made an agreement with the lawyers to conduct controlled sales of assets to claw back as much as possible and avoid firesale conditions. 

In any case, I believe the CBs needed a number of really bad stories around Gold, so that when the stock market tanks with all the collateral damage, they could argue that gold would not be a good candidate for the next solution. I bet they will trot out the IMF fiat instead after a while (due first quarter 2015 AFAIR). And if oil stays where it is now, or falls even further, the loss of revenue for majors will have a dramatic impact on share prices. The majors make up a good chunk of the market, so this will put pressure on the highly margined stocks in general, is my guess. 

I think (as Turd and others) that the dramatic drop in oil this last week - on top of the slide since August - is very dangerous indeed. It could be a derivatives detonator as well as a high cost producer crusher.

When Saudi says that non-opec entities should bear a part of the burden, they could be speaking with a split tongue, and not only mean shale oil producers. They  could also be referring to the western financial system - as in bear the burden of commodities paper speculation and currency mismanagement. They could have pulled the nuclear option and exercised the first step in detonating the paper bomb - with the ultimate step being demand gold for oil either directly or via currency basket proxy. Why else would they not cut production, when they have said themselves earlier that the right price is in the 90 USD range?  

I would be interested to hear plausible explanations for this deliberate choice - on top of an already significant slide in price.

I am chewing on one passage from FOA that suggests that we may not see a bloodbath in Gold and Silver next week, due to the odd huge reductions in open interest, but I don't understand the passage very well, and I guess we will see soon enough, so I will stop here.

vonburpenstein
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you can always count on dr. J....

....to help us see through the nonsense and help us to think critically

Thx

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Dr Jerome
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Thanks for the note vonburp

I had forgotten this forum was here amd missed out on some good posts above.

That'll teach me.

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EH... what's up Doc?

Nice to see you over here with  the non-main street posters. The picture you posted of Sedona looked like it was taken in Oak Creek Village area. I did enjoy my stay in Sedona but it is good to be back home. I am seeing a lot of gold and silver lows are not in yet posts mainly from the chartists. They could be right. I think that if prices go lower or stay at these levels for at least several more quarters for gold, silver and base metals we will see a considerable fall in supply from the miners. So Doc that will be, IMO, just what the doctor ordered for a future sustained price rise in metals. So as Grandma "ayellen" says we should be patient as we stack away.

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