Precious metal miners: fathoming the abyss

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Tue, Jul 5, 2016 - 3:00pm
silverwood
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How about grg.v

"Any other suggestions?" Golden Arrow resources...grg.v

https://seekingalpha.com/article/3981117-1-pick-silver-exposure-250-mill...

Sat, Jul 9, 2016 - 1:04pm Gwyde
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Rally turning into a stampede?

The global response to the Brexit has been to gear up liquidity injections in order to fence off a recession and/or stock market melt down. The plunge of the £ didn't urge the BOE to intervene, neither did long term interest rates rise in the UK. Sterling denominated bond holders were to swallow the depreciation. Financials had a hard time, but stock markets made a swift recovery. Decent job creation data in the US fuel the rally. At 2129.9, the S&P is at a sigh of an all time high and the Dow also regained 18,000.

Unlike before, the liquidity flow into the stock market isn't at the expense of precious metals. Whereas gold is up 3.3% since June 30, closing at $1365.4, the 'white' precious metals took the lead, with silver surging 8.3% since end June to close at $20.25 on Friday. Platinum no longer is a laggard with a 7.25% advance since end June and a first intraday high above $1100 since June 2015.

Among precious metal miners, the rally seems turning into a stampede. The HUI is up 10.1% since end June, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.199. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. The miner performance page also has been refreshed. There now are 24 miners (out of 94 in the GMP database) advancing since Nov 2010, meanwhile nine list components have more than doubled.

As mentioned above, Reservoir Minerals (with a 142% gain the top performer on our list) was acquired by Nevsun. We've taken it to the 'successful exit' tab, where average gains now are boosted from 40% to over 60%. Its place is taken by explorer/developer Osisko Mining Inc. (the former Oban Mining) entering the list at C$2.52, the Friday close.

Despite taking off the top performer, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet now posts a 6.94% gain, up almost 6% since June 24. List components are up across the board, with only Asanko flat. Over the long haul, we have 7 picks advancing. BTG joined the long term winners, while Sandstorm posts at a sigh of breaking even. Miranda Gold impressed, rallying 72% since June 24 and cutting its long term loss to single digits.

Our long term list gain is due to few top performers, having doubled since inclusion: Mirasol Resources, Pretium Resources and MAG silver, while Oceana Gold (+99%) is knocking at the door. I'm monitoring Golden Arrow Resources (GRG.V), rallying impressively on the day it was recommended by Silverwood. Is the take-over premium factored in by now? On KWN news, I heard Rick Rule use the word 'frothy' for explorer valuation, for the first time since early 2011.

Gwyde
Sat, Jul 16, 2016 - 7:16pm Gwyde
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Barely off the highs

Both the S&P and the DJI were posting historic all time highs this week and Nasdaq turned positive for the year. Gold lost somewhat of its luster, retreating 2.07% on balance to $1337.1. On Friday, the yellow metal closed at the high though. White precious metals keep up better, with silver even posting a fresh 22m high on Wednesday. It closed the week down only 0.25% to $20.20. Likewise platinum closed at $1101 on Thursday, its first close above $1100 since June 2015, but it retreated on Friday posting a weekly loss of 0.27%. As often Palladium goes against the trend, strengthening over 4% last week and closing at $647.

Despite weaker gold, miners keep up relatively well. The HUI gave back 1.39% last week. HUI/Gold attains 0.200. We didn't visit that level since the memorable Apr 15, 2013 gold plunge. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among our benchmark ETFs, losses also are contained. SIL even goes against the grid, strengthening marginally since last week. Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet now posts a 4.76% gain, down in line with the HUI or our benchmarks. The 1.9% Friday retreat makes the difference. Nevertheless Sandstorm now joins the long term advances: there now are 8 long term gains against 10 losses. Timmin's gold led the advances with a 20% weekly rally. Argonaut Gold and Miranda Gold were the major drag on the list with a double digit loss. Miranda had made an impressive leap last week and may suffer some profit taking.

Gwyde
Sat, Jul 23, 2016 - 7:49pm Gwyde
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Much anticipated summer dolldrums

Both the S&P and the DJI have been posting historic all time highs this week while Nasdaq is positive for the year and continues improving above 5,000. Gold lost somewhat of its luster, retreating 1.1% on balance to $1322.1. On Friday, the yellow metal closed at the high though. Mixed blessings for the white precious metals: after silver posted a fresh 22m high last week, it now closed the week down 3% to $19.59. Platinum closed at $1082 on Friday posting a weekly loss of 0.92%. As often Palladium goes against the trend, strengthening over 5.4% last week and closing at $682.

The much anticipated summer dolldrums finally take their toll. As usual the weakening of precious metals is rationalized as resulting from 'increasing expectations of a FED rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2016'.

Miners pull back: the HUI eased 3.24% last week. HUI/Gold retreats only little to 0.196. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

The miners performance page was also refreshed. There are 22 miners advancing over the long haul, with (still) 8 of them doubling. At the opposite end, 16 miners/explorers are down over 90% with 7 of them down over 95%: a slight improvement.

Among our benchmark ETFs, losses are somewhat higher; only GDX is down in line with the HUI while other ETFs are down from 4.3% (SIL) to 6.64% (GLDX). The long term gain of our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet dwindles to a tiny 0.27%, down 4.3%. There still are 8 long term gains against 10 losses. Timmin's gold sold off after last week's rally. Argonaut Gold also makes a double digit slide. Miranda Gold and Sandstorm gold advanced against the trend.

Gwyde
Sat, Jul 30, 2016 - 4:43pm
silverwood
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Precious Metals Bull Phase 1

Sat, Jul 30, 2016 - 5:40pm Gwyde
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Short summer doldrums

American stock markets trend sideways: the S&P and DJI are little off their earlier ATH while Nasdaq went against the grid strengthening a little over the week. Across the pond, volatility is more pronounced with many financials sliding.

Precious metals finished their short summer doldrums, strengthening significantly: gold is up 2.14% over the week to $1350.4/Oz on Friday. Silver added 3.57%, recovering after its slide and closing at $20.29. PGM's have the best cards with platinum rallying 6% to $1147 and palladium adding another 4% to $709. Palladium kept on strengthening throughout the recent pull-back of other precious metals. More signs of a weakening US economy (2nd quarter GDP growth around 1.25%) imply that a rate hike is off the table. Another U-turn in the perception of the FED watchers.

The HUI bottomed on Monday with the recovery adding up to a 5% weekly gain. HUI/Gold recovers likewise to 0.202. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among our benchmark ETFs, gains are somewhat higher: GDX adds 6.3% while GDXJ tops the range with a 9.35% weekly gain. Nevertheless our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet outperforms the benchmarks gaining 9.8% over the week and now posting a 10.08% long term gain. There are no weekly declines among our list components. Impressive double digit gains for Eurasian Minerals (+38.1%) and Ivanhoe Mines (+26.6%) make the difference. Miranda Gold (flat over the week) is the laggard. There still are 8 long term gains against 10 losses. Yet Ivanhoe Mines and Osisko Mining now post a single digit loss since inclusion.

Gwyde
Wed, Aug 3, 2016 - 4:21am
silverwood
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BUYER BEWARE!

OK, the company has some potential. What I see happening is a full court marketing campaign before the 1st ounce of gold is mined. IMO, it would be prudent to wait and see what the production results are before running after this company’s stock now. It has been promoted to the “get rich quick crowd” and one look at it’s charts reveals an over bought stock signaling that the company is making a fortune mining this claim when in reality nobody know what will be the outcome of this venture. There are many more just as interesting mining plays that aren’t being so intensively pumped. Do you homework before investing and don’t fall prey to pump jobs like what I see going on here.

Video unavailable

Maybe this will apply and time will tell... “A mine is a hole in the ground and its owner is a liar.”

Sat, Aug 6, 2016 - 4:51pm Gwyde
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US Economic indicator smoke screen

Another peculiar week with opposing tendencies. The TSX trading week started on Tuesday with the precious metals uptrend continuing against broad stock market weakness. You remember that 2nd quarter US GDP growth came in at 1.2%, well below expectations. Moreover GDP for past quarters has been revised downward also. In order to stave off a recession after the Brexit spoilt the UK economic outlook, the BOE came with a 25 bp rate cut on Thursday. Promptly gold turned north again after easing somewhat on Wednesday. What I felt wary about was white precious metals not following suit. On Friday US non-farm payroll (employment) data came in above expectations, with jobless claims steady at 4.9%. Another US economic indicator used as the smoke screen to hide the poor GDP growth and effectively boosting the stock market while causing a precious metals sell-off.

On balance gold is down 1.1% over the week closing at $1335.4 (down 1.84% for the day). Silver slid 3.1% over the week closing at $19.66, yet silver also posted a 2 year closing high on Tuesday at $20.57. Among PGM's platinum held up well, easing only 0.26% over the week and closing at $1144 (with Friday again ruining the weekly advance). Palladium slid 2.12% to $694 (yet after outperforming other PM's during previous weeks).

The HUI slid 3.4% on Friday but upholds well on a weekly basis, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.204. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

The HUI seems having been in a sweet spot, since all benchmark ETF's give way: GDX eases 1.18% and GDXJ is down 1.32%, while the explorer ETF GLDX slid over 4%. Only the Global X silver miner ETF: SIL countains its weekly loss to 0.65%. Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet upholds better than the benchmarks, giving back only 0.25% and trimming the long term gain to 9.81%. Weekly advances balance declines in number. Eurasian Minerals makes a double digit gain over the week, leading the advances. Among the declines the worst are the 7.25% loss for both Osisko Mining and Continental Gold.

I've added Integra Gold Corp (ICG.V) to our benchmark section and hereby call for comments. Should we consider adding this explorer to our list?

Few comments on 'K92Mining': 92 happens to be the atom number of Uranium. This makes me wary: is K92Mining a 'trend hopper' and 'opportunist play'? Why did Barrick divest this project? Are the projected low AISC realistic? These people obviously are good at promoting a project, but are they qualified to run a mine? These are a few questions I'd like to ask Ross Beaty, their key-shareholder.

Gwyde
Sat, Aug 13, 2016 - 6:50pm Gwyde
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Mirror like

Stock markets continue trading sideways with fractional gains over the week. For price action, precious metals have been a better choice. Metals peaked on Wednesday in Asian trading, yet by the London PM fix (short) sellers have been clawing back. On balance gold goes nowhere (+0.02%) closing at $1335.7, silver eases fractionally (-0.10%). PGM's had a very volatile week, with platinum peaking above $1180, while sliding back to $1120, down 2.1% over the week; a similar trend for Palladium which gave back 1.6%.

Despite the slide since Thursday, miners advanced over the week, with the HUI index gaining 1.5%, making HUI/Gold strengthen to 0.207. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. Among our benchmarks gains are slightly better: from a net advance of 2.7% for GDX to a gain just short of 5% for SIL, the Global-X silver miner ETF. With a weekly gain of 4.63% our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet trades within the upper range of our benchmarks.

On average, juniors and explorers have started outperforming the mining majors as the mining bull market has been gathering strength. Advances lead declines 16 against 2 this week, with double digit gains for Pilot Gold and Sandstorm Gold making the difference. Ivanhoe Mines made it above break-even since introduction; over the long haul the number of advances (9) now balance declines. The long term gain sweetened to 14.89%.

Gwyde
Fri, Aug 19, 2016 - 3:55pm
silverwood
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First Majestic owners

AG holders want to look at a Fibonacci retractment for AG's move off the bottom for possible correction targets. You can do that simply by going to stockcharts and pulling up a 1 year daily chart for AG. Put price labels into your chart. Then go to annotate chart option and choose Fibonacci retracement. Draw your lines from the Jan 2016 low of 2.40 to the Aug high of 19.15. The 38.2% retract @ 12.74 the 50% retract @ 10.75 and the 61.8% retrace @ 8.79. It is not uncommon for a stock to retract to the 50% area. IMO this stock was over-hyped and is overvalued relative to $silver and many of it's peers. It could very well retract as a fast spike down...time will tell.

Sun, Aug 21, 2016 - 8:29am Gwyde
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Miners off their highs

American stock markets have been trading sideways with the main indices going nowhere on a weekly basis.

Among precious metals gold has been firming a little yet the Friday slide only leaves a fractional (0.4%) weekly gain, closing at $1341. White precious metals all go their own way: silver suffers a 1.93% pull-back to $19.26 while platinum is down only fractionally (-0.7%) to $1112. With a 3.8% weekly gain to $709, Palladium confirms its outlier reputation.

Miners now are off their highs with the HUI index down 3.6% over the week making HUI/Gold retreat to 0.200. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. Where does this miner pull-back bring us? Analysts pointing to miner over-valuation do have a point. A regression model between the HUI index and Gold has been described in "Gold miner rally: the bull market logic". The current pull-back does not even halve the residual of the HUI relative to its least squares regression line. With a HUI reading of 248.6, the residual would drop to zero at the current gold price level. Gold rallying to $1377 with the HUI kept grounded at the current level would equally nullify the residual.

Among our benchmarks losses vary from 1.05% for GLDX to a 3.51% (in line with the HUI) for GDX. With a tiny decline (0.13%) our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet is beating our benchmarks. (Don't worry, we will have our off-days.)

Over the long haul, advances (9) balance declines with the long term gain holding firm at 14.74%. Over the week we have 7 picks advancing against 10 list components declining with Almaden Min. flat over the week. There are no double digit moves in either direction. Pilot Gold retreats 8.6% after its impressive rally last week. Prospect generator Mirasol Resources added 9%., with Miranda Gold following in the slipstream.

Gwyde
Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 1:26pm
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Thoughts

John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) cost me a lot of money and I am not even close to even on his recs, so buyer beware. If they were not a good value and he knew that, he should have told his subscribers to hold off. Problem is, when he presents himself as an "expert" you pay money and want to believe he knows better than you do with your own research.

Ones that have worked well for me and given good profits. OCANF, MUX, SSRI, SAMG, FFMGF

Thanks to the folks that post here, appreciate your efforts.

flyinkel
Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 2:03pm flyinkel
silverwood
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Thoughts ...Follow the rules

If you want to invest then 1) Do your own research. 2) Listen to all and follow none!!! That is why I have never spent even a nickel on some so called guru's advice. 3) Charts and technical analysis can be helpful, especially in determining what the trend is. 4) The trend is your friend so don't try to fight it.

Wed, Aug 24, 2016 - 2:31pm silverwood
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Great Advice

"1) Do your own research. 2) Listen to all and follow none!!!"

flyinkel
Sat, Aug 27, 2016 - 7:07pm Gwyde
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Be careful what you wish for

As September is coming close, stock markets sense summer ending and the prospect of traders returning to their desks. Of any feeling, vertigo is what comes closest in describing how markets back off from their highs. Weekly declines of American stock market indices are fractional as modest gains alternate with losses.

If the Jackson Hole FED meeting caused any effect, it has been on precious metals where modest retreats accelerated to a slide on Wednesday. There was choppy trading the rest of the week. Gold has been retreating every single day by the Comex close, but the 1.54% weekly loss to $1320.5 is far from worrying. More volatility for the white precious metals, but weekly declines extend to 3.17% for silver closing at $18.65 (up on Friday). Platinum and Palladium equally shed over 3% last week.

Miners had their worst week since July 2015. The weekly decline of the HUI extends to 11.5%, with the slide that started on Friday Aug 19 extending to the Wednesday plunge and only interrupted by a modest technical recovery last Thursday. As a result, HUI/Gold slid to 0.180, breaking below its 50 dma. Be careful what you wish for: if there was a point in warning for overvaluation among gold miners last week, we need to reconsider now. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among our benchmark ETF's weekly declines are between 8.2% for GLDX and 10.7% for SIL. All are somewhat less bad than the HUI index. With an 8.34% decline, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet compares rather favourably. There are 16 declines against 2 advances: Continental Gold and Osisko Mining gain a little against the grid. With a 15% decline, Almaden Min. is the major drag on the list, but we face several other double digit declines. Yet the number of long term advances (9) still balances that of long term declines.

Don't get overexcited on DUST (the triple bear miner ETF): there was a 5:1 share consolidation on Aug 25. Its weekly gain extends to 30%, whereas NUGT fell off a cliff.

Gwyde
Tue, Aug 30, 2016 - 2:10pm silverwood
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First Majestic breaches 38.2 % fib retracement level

silverwood wrote:

AG holders want to look at a Fibonacci retractment for AG's move off the bottom for possible correction targets. You can do that simply by going to stockcharts and pulling up a 1 year daily chart for AG. Put price labels into your chart. Then go to annotate chart option and choose Fibonacci retracement. Draw your lines from the Jan 2016 low of 2.40 to the Aug high of 19.15. The 38.2% retract @ 12.74 the 50% retract @ 10.75 and the 61.8% retrace @ 8.79. It is not uncommon for a stock to retract to the 50% area. IMO this stock was over-hyped and is overvalued relative to $silver and many of it's peers. It could very well retract as a fast spike down...time will tell.

AG has traded below the 38.2% fib retracement level. AG, $12.39 as I type this. Looks like some support @ the 12.20 area. If that doesn't hold next level the 50% level @ 10.75. AUY just hit it's 38.2% retrace level @ $4.22. Looking around the net I'm finding the typical bearish reports in mainstream https://www.bnn.ca/video/don-t-buy-more-gold-it-s-still-in-a-commodity-b...

Thu, Sep 1, 2016 - 6:25pm
silverwood
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AG...Valuation Up in the Clouds, but No Silver Lining

Sun, Sep 4, 2016 - 1:11pm Gwyde
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A V shaped miner bottom

Stock markets are still hesitating as we enter into September (a seasonally weak month). Gains alternated with losses but eventually a decent Friday session made the difference. Weekly gains on the stock market indices are fractional.

Precious metals continued downhill, which quickly reversed the technical miner recovery we witnessed previous week. Gold and silver bottomed on Wednesday, while the PGM's continued downhill on Thursday. On balance gold advanced fractionally (+0.33%) to close at $1324.8 on Friday. Silver rallied after its steep slide and is up 4.13% over the week closing at $19.42. The PGM's only started recovering on Friday and still decline over the week: -0.93% for Pt and -1.31% for Pd. As a result we got a V-shaped miner bottom. We ended August with a slide, far outpacing the erosion of precious metal prices. By Wednesday, the HUI index was about 9 points below its 'neutral valuation' point. On balance the HUI gains 0.73% to 239.5. This leaves the HUI/gold ratio almost unchanged at 0.181. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among our benchmark ETF's weekly advances are between 0.63% for GDX and 2.55% for GDXJ. With a 3% advance, our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet compares favourably. We have 12 advances against 5 declines over the week, with 1 stock flat. Asanko Gold makes the difference with a 14.2% rally over the week.

Gwyde
Wed, Sep 7, 2016 - 10:14am Gwyde
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Jackson Hole fall out

An update has been made on the miner performance page, which graphs the long term performance of the 94 miners we have in the GoldMinerPulse database.

Apart from these long term graphs, a comparison always is made with the previous observation, generally two weeks before. This allows quantifying the "Jackson Hole fall out", the result of PM shorts stirring up the rate hike fear (hoping to cut their losses in an orchestrated slide).

The slide among miners has been more obvious than that for precious metals. As such miner overvaluation morphed into undervaluation by Aug. 31st. The damage has somehow been mended slightly by last Friday (reference for the page update). Nevertheless we have an overwhelming majority of miners down since previous observation (Aug 19).

Gwyde
Sun, Sep 11, 2016 - 5:54pm Gwyde
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Bifurcation

Until Thursday stock markets have been moving sideways with little daily variation, yet the Friday slide turns the week into red. Hawkish comments on US interest rates from a FED director caused a USD rally, while stock markets and precious metals tanked.

Gold continued last weeks rally after labour day but turned south afterwards with the slide gaining momentum on Friday. Nevertheless the yellow metal holds on to a fractional (0.23%) weekly gain, closing at $1327.8. After last weeks silver rally, profit taking drove down the white metal with the Friday slide contributing to a 2% weekly loss. Silver closed at $19.03. PGM's have little to be proud on: not only were they late at the party previous week. The slide since Wednesday results in a second week with (albeit moderate) declines as of 0.3% for Pt and 0.6% for Pd.

There is more than only the bifurcation between the yellow and white precious metals: miners had a pretty rough week with the HUI losing close to 4%. As a result, the HUI/Gold ratio weakens to 0.172. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. Losses for our benchmark ETF's are comparable: SIL and GLDX are off less bad with a 2.8% decline, while GDXJ slid 4.1% over the week. GDX holds the middle ground, down 3.44%.

For a third consecutive week we beat the benchmarks and miraculously escape the downturn: Our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet advances by a modest 0.74%, with the cumulative gain now posting at 9.06%. Osisko Mining makes the difference with a 23% weekly gain. This explorer-developer also wipes away earlier long term losses and now posts a 17.46% advance since inclusion. Excellent new drilling results at Windfall Lake put Osisko in the spotlights of several analysts.

Gwyde

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