Precious metal miners: fathoming the abyss

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Sat, May 7, 2016 - 3:05pm Gwyde
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Wild gyrations

The same recipe on American stock markets, with fractional losses over the week for DJI and S&P, while Nasdaq keeps lagging. YTD gains on both the DJI and S&P continue dwindling.

After an intraday high on Monday (with gold at $1304 and silver above $18), precious metals let off some steam most of the week, while recovering some of their losses on Friday. On balance gold eases fractionally (-0.36%) to $1287.7/Oz. Silver slid 2.13% to $17.44. PGM's fluctuate unequally with Platinum holding firm at $1078 (+$1) while palladium gave back 2.4% to $606.

Wild gyrations among miners however with a four day plunge from the mild retreat on Friday Apr 29 culminating into the Wednesday 10% plunge on the HUI. Overdone it seems, since on Thursday a miner recovery rally sparked, well ahead of gold firming on Friday (May 6). On balance the HUI is down 3.13% over the week to 226.1. HUI/Gold eased to 0.175. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among our benchmark ETF's losses vary between 2.1% for GLDX and 6% for GLDX, the gold explorer ETF. We've been relatively successful on our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet which is down only fractionally (-0.47%) to a long term loss now at 9.71%. There are 7 advances over the week against 9 declines with two components flat. Continental Gold was the major drag on the list, down 13.7% last week. PLG slid 12% on Friday but had held on to a modest gain before, resulting in a 9.6% loss over the week. Prospect Generator Miranda Gold gained 10.5%.

Gwyde
Mon, May 9, 2016 - 7:34am Gwyde
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Gold miner rally: the bull market logic

(...)

What's so exciting about this analysis, is that it continues to be valid during this young gold miner bull market: the bear market logic almost candidly transits to a bull market logic. Not a single letter needs to be changed to the linear regression underpinning the mathematical model.

Gold miner rally: the bull market logic

Five graphs and supporting evidence @ your service.

Gwyde
Thu, May 12, 2016 - 3:23pm
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Opinions on b2gold

Anyone have an opinion on BTG, BTO.to? I am considering a position. Should I be concerned over the 1+ billion shares outstanding?

Thu, May 12, 2016 - 4:07pm
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Mining share sentiment

It appears that mining share sentiment is becoming over optimistic. I see trading activity in OTC bankrupt junior mining shares. For example Veris gold, YNGFF has traded 82,000 shares today@ $00.0003 per share. That's a long way from a penny! Also Royal Standard minerals RYSMF traded 68,000 shares at $00.0008. Great Basin Gold GBGLF has been trading like there is something actually going on? Traded123,000 shares @ $00.0044. As far as my research it has no assets just a shell of a company. So is it that all an equity needs is to have gold in its name to trade? Is it scammers trying to create a pump and dump play? Or what is it?

Sat, May 14, 2016 - 5:53pm Gwyde
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Consolidating

American stock markets once more finished a lackluster week with fractional losses. By now the S&P barely quotes break-even year-to-date, while the DJI saw its gain dwindle to 0.63%. Nasdaq is down almost 6% YTD. For precious metals, advances alternated with declines, yet on balance gold is down 1.16% to $1272.8/Oz. More damage among the white precious metals with silver giving back 2.06% to $17.08. Platinum slid 2.7% over the week to $1049 and Palladium also is down 2.5% to $591.

It won't come as a surprise that the HUI index slid over 2% to 221.5 while HUI/Gold eases marginally to 0.174. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. The Miner Performance page also was updated.

Among our benchmark ETF's GDX and GDXJ show declines around 1.4% while GLDX and SIL keep their feet dry with timid advances over the week. Our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet is teaming up with the winners, adding 2.35% over the week and cutting its long term loss to 7.6%. We have advances (12) outnumbering declines (5) with Sandstorm Gold flat over the week. Prospect generator Mirasol advanced over 15% making the difference this week. Other advances and declines are single digit. Over the long haul we have 7 list components up while 11 still are in the red.

Reservoir Minerals and MAG silver doubled and make the difference for the long term performance of our list.

@Silverwood: we have BTG in our spreadsheet and long term losses have been mitigating. BTG is a minor component in GDX. As such, its fundamentals and performance are better tracked than those of any other junior to mid-tier miner. Adam Hamilton of Zealllc made a nice table on these GDX components yesterday.

Gwyde
Sun, May 15, 2016 - 5:43pm silverwood
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Silverwood

I own 7000 shares of BTG and am considering adding more (@ $2) even though the float is big. They are very well diversified geographically and have some really good mines.

The stock I really like however, is EDV.to, EDVMF. They bought out my True Gold at a bargain which will be a real bonanza for Endeavour. It is strictly west African but they have more gold production than BTG and they are growing it faster. I have added some recently along with the 2000 shares I received for True Gold.

Mon, May 16, 2016 - 9:50am
silverwood
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Thanks pontiac

Pulling up a weekly stockchart of edvmf:btg sure enough shows edvmf out performing btg.

Mon, May 16, 2016 - 11:09am silverwood
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Silverwood, if we compare the

Silverwood, if we compare the float of the two stocks, edvmf is actually cheaper than BTG. EDVMF at $14.50 with 88 million shares-- if they did a 10 for 1 split the price would be $1.45 with 880 mil sh. equivalent to btg,s 928 mil sh. at their current price of $2.21.

Mon, May 16, 2016 - 6:11pm Gwyde
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More acquisition news

Relevant also since it concerns some of the miners included in the Miner Performance page.

Claude Resources (CRJ, CRJ.TO) is going to be acquired by Silver Standard Resources (SSRI, SSO.TO). Since it principally is an all share deal (with a symbolic $0.001 paid in cash) Claude Res shareholders will obtain some 32% of the joint Standard Silver company. One more silver producer buying a gold miner: Tahoe Resources bought Lake Shore Gold few weeks ago and last year Tahoe Res also bought Rio Alto Mining.

Yukon play 'Kaminak Resources' (KAM.V) is going to be acquired by Goldcorp (GG, G.TO). The Kaminak Coffee Gold Project is fairly close to an Alaskan Goldcorp mine site.

Gwyde
Thu, May 19, 2016 - 3:24pm Gwyde
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Moved further out on the limb today

and added 1000 sh of BTG at $1.99, FSM @$5.95

Bought some RGLD for my wife's IRA @ $54.26

I'll just hold on even if we go through the usual summer slam down.

Sat, May 21, 2016 - 5:47pm Gwyde
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Against the odds

Stock markets keep on meandering between gains and losses. The Friday rally saved us from another weekly decline. The S&P again posts a tiny advance year-to-date (after giving up the break even earlier this week). Nasdaq succeeded in cutting its YTD decline to less than 5%. The DJI doesn't enjoy the uptrend, posting a tiny loss; it's close to break-even YTD.

Leaving the stock market aside, speculation demons target precious metals where any timid advance early this week vaporized in the Wednesday slide. Precious metals kept on grinding lower on Thursday with the white metals hit hardest. Friday started with a nice recovery, but advances eroded and gold managed to close with yet another decline. On balance gold is down 1.64% for the week, closing at $1251.9. Closing at $16.5 silver slid 3.4% over the week. Platinum isn't much better off with a 2.6% decline to $1020, while Palladium again carries the red lantern plunging 5.6% over the week to $558.

Miners plunged on Wednesday, with a 7.8% loss for the HUI index, but afterwards resisted the yellow metal weakening. The HUI is down 2.26% for the week, making HUI/Gold ease very little to 0.173. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among our benchmark ETF's weekly declines vary between 0.87% for SIL and 3% for GDX. Against the odds our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet keeps its feet dry. We have advances balancing declines on our list, with two components flat over the week. With a 12% gain Eurasian Minerals saves us for this week. The 11% decline for Timmin's gold isn't nice, but the stock being deep into the red, the influence on the total result is limited.

For the record: this thread is the continuation of "Selecting explorers and junior miners" on the archived forum (last post on Nov 2, 2014). The original blog post backing and inspiring the former thread had the same name: Selecting Explorers and Junior Miners

Gwyde
Sun, May 22, 2016 - 1:58pm
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An excellent article, must read!

Gold Bull-Phase I Continues to Confound (The Trek to “Known Values”)

https://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1463930829.php

Sat, May 28, 2016 - 7:23pm Gwyde
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Miner correction aggravating

American stock markets recovered from their recent pull back. Both the DJI and S&P post advances well over 2% last week. Nasdaq comp. even gains 3.44% and is again coming close to its break-even for 2016. The greenback strengthened after FED comments not ruling out a June rate hike.

Precious metals kept on grinding lower as a result. Gold lost 2.64% closing at $1218.8. Silver eased 1.82% to $16.2. More damage for the PGM's with platinum sliding 4.3% to $976 (back to the triple digits) and palladium is off almost 4% to $536. Palladium could not hold on to a counter-trend gain on Thursday and Friday morning.

Consequently, miners have been sliding four sessions this week, with only a timid recovery attempt on Wednesday. The HUI slid 8.14% over the week, making HUI/Gold retreat to 0.164. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. The miner performance page also has been refreshed. There still are 16 miners (out of 94 in the GMP database) advancing since Nov 2010, but gains are eroding. Two explorers have more than doubled: a short blog article comments on one of them: Oban Mining to become Osisko 2.0

Among our benchmark ETF's weekly declines vary between 7.4% for GDX to 11.2% for GLDX. We didn't manage to hide for a third week: our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet slid 9.1%: in line with the benchmarks. This brings the long term loss close to 16%. Only Reservoir Minerals kept its feet dry for the week. We still have 7 stocks advancing over the long haul against 11 declining, yet gains are dwindling.

Gwyde
Sun, Jun 5, 2016 - 11:35am Gwyde
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A single out-of-boundary data point

American stock markets were recovering for until Friday... until one single out of boundary data point decided otherwise. The job creation figure for the past month came at 38,000 in far below expectations and at only a fraction of the 123,000 jobs created in April. On balance the S&P is flat over the week, while the Friday rout pushed the DJI into the red. Nasdaq holds on to some tiny weekly gain. Expectations that the FED might hike rates in June vaporized and the greenback tanked.

Precious metals had been grinding lower during this short trading week but made a U turn. Gold recovered its loss incurred during the last two weeks, rallying 2.73% on Friday to $1243.5 (or up 2.03% for the week). Silver likewise rallied 2.69% to $16.39. The PGM's had been in a horrible death ride and made a 3.14% (Pt) and 3.76% (Pd) leap. Nevertheless Pt is up only 1% for the week, while Pd advanced by nearly 3%.

Miners had been in an orderly retreat with declines contained until the Friday rally made this into the best week since late April. The HUI rallied 11.6% on Friday, up 13.95% for the short week, making the HUI/Gold ratio firm to 0.182. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. The miner performance page also has been refreshed. There are 18 miners (out of 94 in the GMP database) advancing since Nov 2010. One miner and two explorers have more than doubled: a short blog article comments on one of them: Oban Mining to become Osisko 2.0

Among our benchmark ETF's weekly advances range from 11.4% for GLDX to 15.4% for GDXJ. With a 10.3% rally our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet apparently lags the benchmarks, however those are quoting in USD, while most of our quotes are in CAD, which strengthened on Friday. Our long term loss is cut in half to 7.31%. Advances outnumber declines 17 to 1: only Eurasian Minerals was not at the party with a 5% weekly decline. Asanko Gold, Argonaut Gold and Pretium Resources pull the cart with gains ranging 16.7% to 21.4%.

Gwyde
Mon, Jun 6, 2016 - 1:47am
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Well happy monday for the miners

I had to chase my pick stock, over 22% before i got filled. It has not moved since i got it , never mind. Well all the miners are showing amazing returns, as the lack of sellers becomes obvious. Even the big boys are bending the realms of reality, when on a day that spot is held firm in a range the gold and silver charts stall, the large miners gap up and up. Bull market sentiment.

Sat, Jun 11, 2016 - 3:20pm Gwyde
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Higher despite the Friday rout

Last week didn't look too bad on American stock markets until the rout last Friday wiped out the tiny gains. Both the S&P and Nasdaq are down fractionally over the week.

Precious metals have been in an uptrend, led by silver making a 5.4% weekly gain closing at $17.28. Gold firmed 2.4% over the week, closing at $1273.3. Any fear that the Friday rally on June 3 might have been a one-day wonder proved unfounded. PGM's have little to be proud on: Platinum made a short excursion above $1000 but eased off, holding on to a tiny 0.5% weekly gain. Likewise the Palladium rally faltered after Wednesday with the Friday 3% sell off resulting in a 1.8% decline over the week.

Apart from a hiccup on Tuesday, miners were rallying. On Friday however the negative stock market sentiment made gravity find its way. After a higher opening, miners retreated. The HUI slid 1.81% on Friday, but holds on to a 1.9% weekly gain. HUI/Gold eased a little to 0.181. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

The miner performance page also has been refreshed. A milestone has been reached: all miners of the top quintile now post a long term gain. Over four months after the onset of the miner recovery, the long term loss of the best miners in the sub-top quintile also is reduced to a single digit number.

Among our benchmarks, weekly advances are in the single digits, led by the (small) Global X gold explorer ETF (GLDX). Our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet is up 2.65% over the week. The long term loss is cut to 4.85%. There are 11 list components advancing against 6 declining with Miranda Gold flat over the week. Mirasol Res. takes the lead with a 16.3% weekly advance. Over the long haul we still have 7 advances against 11 declines.

Your WE read: after the make-over of the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Miner Sector index (XAU), I made an in-depth study on POG/XAU. A similar bear market / bull market logic holds that had previously been described for the HUI. This is kind of reassuring for the model.

Gwyde
Sat, Jun 18, 2016 - 4:57pm Gwyde
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Miners hesitating

American stock markets have been easing gradually throughout the week and now again are well off the highs for 2016. The S&P is down 1.19%, while the Nasdaq Comp. gave back 1.92%. Across the Atlantic the slide is more pronounced with the possible Brexit scenario haunting the markets. This uncertainty underpins the demand for gold. The yellow metal added 1.95% over the week, closing at $1298.1. Silver firmed by 1.1% to $17.47. Once more the PGM's are victims of a worsening economic outlook, with a 2.32% weekly decline for Platinum and another 1.85% slide for Palladium.ma

Miners are hesitating, but on balance they're heading south with the stock market. The HUI is down 1.64% to 227.1, making HUI/Gold retreat to 0.174. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

Among the benchmarks for our contributor driven explorer & junior miner spreadsheet results vary from a weekly loss of 3.9% for GLDX to a modest 1% gain for GDXJ, while GDX eases 0.65% over the week. We were better off and have beaten our benchmarks: the list adds 4.14% on average, cutting its long term loss to a fractional 0.91%: for the first time since 2012 we're close to breaking even. We have 13 list components advancing, against only 4 declines over the week, while Timmin's gold is flat. Double digit gains for our top performer Reservoir Min. and furthermore for Mirasol, Continental Gold and Sandstorm gold make the difference. Over the long haul there still are 7 miners/explorers advancing against 11 declining. Sandstorm cut its loss to the single digit range.

Gwyde
Sat, Jun 25, 2016 - 3:04pm Gwyde
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Brexit leaves financials wrong footed

Until Thursday, stock markets have been trending higher, with the DOW closing above 18000. Precious metals had been grinding lower, with short bets increasing synthetic supply on Comex futures. The Brexit vote leaves financials wrong footed: the Friday plunge of stock markets around the globe wipes out earlier timid gains, while precious metals rallied.

The Dow and S&P lose about 3.5% and end up fractionally negative for 2016. Over the week the loss is contained to about 1.6%.

Precious metals rallied, wiping away any declines earlier in the week. Gold rallied 4.35% on Friday, up 1.35% for the week and closing at $1315.6, silver added 2.78% on Friday, up 1.43% for the week and closing at $17.72 (after breaking $18 intraday). Even Platinum added 2% and is up 1.65% for the week, closing at $984. Palladium has been the outlier throughout the week, strengthening till Thursday and easing on Friday, but nevertheless holding on to a 3% gain for the week. Pd was closing at $548.

Miners had been trending lower, interrupted by a recovery on Wednesday with Gold stabilizing. On Friday miners ignored the stock market plunge and rallied with the precious metals. The HUI ends the week up 4.74% to 237.9, with HUI/Gold firming to 0.180. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page. The miner performance page also has been refreshed. There now are 21 miners (out of 94 in the GMP database) advancing since Nov 2010. Four list components have more than doubled.

Among our benchmarks, gains are in a narrow range from 3.57% for GDX to 3.69% for SIL. Only GLDX does better with a 6.6% weekly advance. We couldn't continue outperforming this week, but the 2.14% gain on our Contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miner Spreadsheet, lifts us out of the red to a fractional (0.9%) long term gain. Advances (13) outnumber declines (5) this week, but we're lacking the double digit gains that can make the difference. BTG comes close with a 9.55% gain and cutting its long term loss to single digits. Sandstorm comes close to break-even, but we're still at 7 long term advances against 11 declines.

Gwyde
Fri, Jul 1, 2016 - 4:14am Gwyde
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A joyful Canada day

A joyful Canada day and likewise a happy 4th of July for US readers.

Stock markets recovered from the Brexit hangover after bottoming on Monday. In the US gains are at 3% for the DJI and the S&P since last Friday's plunge. Across the Atlantic, losses have been deeper and the recovery also is more pronounced.

The bullish sentiment for precious metals got rooted after the Brexit vote. The gold surge was not a one-day wonder. Last week the 'white' precious metals got the lead. Gold added only 0.5% since last Friday, now closing at $1321.7. Yet silver surged over 5.5% closing at $18.7, a 21 month high. PGM's also recovered, with Platinum up 3.76% now closing at $1021. Palladium trumps all with a 9.3% surge, closing at $599.

Miners continue rallying, with only a mild consolidation on Tuesday. The HUI is up 3.76% to 246.6, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.187. You find updated graphs on the gold miner pulse blog page.

With two shortened trading weeks, there is no Friday update of the contributor driven Explorer & Junior miner spreadsheet . Next update will follow on Friday, July 8.

Gwyde
Tue, Jul 5, 2016 - 8:28am Gwyde
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Reservoir Minerals taken over by Nevsun Resources

Since its introduction on the list on Dec 30, 2015 Reservoir Minerals turned out to be the major hit on the list, more than doubling over its six months track record. On June 23, the deal with Nevsun Resources (NSU) has been finalized. NSU pays in a combined share / cash deal: RMC shareholders receive two NSU shares + C$2.00 per RMC share. Using the last available NSU share price of C$3.93 at the July 4 close, this values the RMC shares to C$9.86. We exit our position at that price and move the line over to the 'successful exits' Tab of the spreadsheet. That will deteriorate the current result, but won't affect the global result including exits/exiles as mentioned at the bottom of the spreadsheet.

As a replacement on the list, I may consider Osisko Mining (OSK), this is the earlier Oban Mining, an explorer/developer. You find a short introduction in following article: Oban Mining to become Osisko 2.0. Any other suggestions? Keep Nevsun?

Gwyde
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