Precious metal miners: fathoming the abyss

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Sun, May 14, 2017 - 7:31am Gwyde
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Baked into the cake

The stock market rally is leveling off, with the S&P failing to close above 2400 and the DJ unable to uphold 21K. Only Nasdaq advanced slightly last week, as Tech has been leading the recovery YTD.

Though recent macro data came in weaker than anticipated, a June rate hike seems baked into the cake. Precious metal markets have been convinced interest rates keep rising. This sent gold lower close to its $1200 support and silver just upholding $16. Since Thursday a timid recovery is unfolding. Over the week, gold is almost unchanged at $1227.7/Oz, while silver adds 0.8% to $16.44, after a disproportional losing streak. As mentioned last week, miners have been anticipating the bottoming process. This week, the miners rally started off as precious metals put down their lows. Over the week, the HUI adds 6%, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.1606. Graphs on the gold miner pulse page clearly illustrate that miner valuation relative to gold is firming impressively. Not surprisingly the HUI once again posts above its HUI/Gold regression line.

Most ETFs were adding over 5% last week, with GDXJ leading with 7.5% (after lagging for several weeks). With a 4.6% advance our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet is lagging. Yet the advance brings us back from the red to a long term advance of 1.7%. An exceptional weekly advance of Continental Gold (+32%) was not enough to make the difference for our list. We had 16 advances against 2 counter trend declines (OSK, PLG) with Miranda flat for the week.

Gwyde
Sat, May 20, 2017 - 7:47pm Gwyde
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Miners still anticipating...

American stock markets still are digesting the Wednesday plunge. Market indices are down fractionally over the week.

Precious metals advanced nicely over the week, despite the Thursday slide. Gold firmed 2.27% to $1255.6 almost equaled by silver, up 2.37% to $16.83. PGMs did less well, with Platinum lagging only little +2.07% to $938 but Palladium easing against the trend: -6.09% to $756. Pd had been unusually strong YTD, narrowing the price gap with Platinum to less than $100 only two weeks ago.

If miners had been anticipating the gold recovery, they started lagging the gold rally as it unfolded, thereby anticipating the Thursday precious metal slide... The HUI was flat over the week while HUI/Gold eased to 0.157 since May 12. You find more on the gold miner pulse page. HUI residuals, relative to the HUI/Gold regression line turned slightly negative again. Miners no longer are factoring in higher gold prices.

Since the previous evaluation on May 5, the gold miners performance page shows advances outnumbering declines about 3:1. Despite this, miners at the tail of the top quintile (the best 20% of the list) still are a little below break-even.

Gold mining ETF's progress modestly, leaving behind the HUI: GDX (+0.64%) and GDXJ (+0.23%) make a fractional advance, while SIL is the best in class, adding 2.5%. Our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet adds 1.65% to a long term advance of 3.38%. Not too bad considering that weekly declines outnumber advances 10:8 (with Pilot Gold flat). Yet we are saved having Integra Gold (+42%) on our list. This developer has been advancing its Lamaque project in Val d'or, Québec. Integra Gold will be acquired by Eldorado Gold.

Gwyde
Sun, May 28, 2017 - 2:51pm Gwyde
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Greenback over the top

American stock markets resume their uptrend. Last week major indices are up between 1.32% for the Dow again at 21080.3 and 1.43% for the S&P500 to 2415.8 to 2.08% for Nasdaq Comp closing at 6210.2. Precious metals likewise advance nicely, with the white PM leading: Silver +2.85% to $17.31/Oz, Platinum +2.24% to $959/Oz and Palladium rallying 4.37% to $789/oz. The yellow metal lags with a 0.88% advance to $1266.7.

Since the greenback is over the top, miners are less enthusiast about the better PM prices. With a 1.21% weekly decline, the HUI sets the tune. Predictably the HUI/Gold ratio slides to 0.1536 as illustrated on the gold miner pulse page. HUI residuals, relative to the HUI/Gold regression line continue into negative territory. Miners ignore higher gold prices as they may not yield higher profit margins if the USD declines any further.

Mining ETF's GDX and GDXJ are worse off than the HUI with weekly declines above 2.1%. Our contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet declines 2.38% with the long term advance thinning to 0.92%. Fasten security belts again. Declines outnumber advances 13 to 6 last week. Specific news from the list narrows down to name changes: Pilot Gold now is called Liberty Gold, with ticker LGD.TO. Silver Wheaton (among the streamers/royalty plays) changed its name to Wheaton Precious Metals with ticker WPM.

Gwyde
Sat, Jun 3, 2017 - 4:37pm Gwyde
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Miners lagging the metals

After hesitating for a week, precious metals ended the week rallying. For both gold and silver Friday's gains more or less coincide with weekly advances. Gold is up 0.93% for the week to $1278.5, while silver adds 1.27% to $17.53. PGM's diverge with Platinum unable to wipe away earlier losses and still down 0.53% for the week, ending at $954 and Palladium consistently higher with a weekly advance of 6.08% at $837. On Thursday, the Pt-Pd price gap has been narrowing to $106 (now $117).

Miner quotes have been eroding gradually, lagging precious metals. The HUI/Gold ratio slid to 0.1497. More such graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page. Not surprisingly the HUI slid deeper below the HUI/Gold long standing regression line, with the residuals now deeper into 'oversold' territory.
The Miners Performance evaluation tells the same story. Declines outnumber advances since the previous check, while both median and average decline are deepening.

The contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet follows suit, with a weekly loss of 1.51% it is amidst the squad: GDX and GDXJ are down less than 1% but GOEX and SIL slid 1.56% and 2.14% respectively. After removing Asanko Gold to the exile section last week, we are down to 18 components with 8 long term gains against 10 declines. The long term advance stands at 1.09%. (Removal of Asanko caused a 'cosmetic gain', which evidently doesn't affect the result 'after exits and exiles' which still is over 28% in the red.) Over the week declines outnumber advances 9 to 6 with 3 picks flat. There are no double digit moves.

Gwyde
Sat, Jun 10, 2017 - 3:15pm Gwyde
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Failed attack on $1300 Gold

American stock markets were making fresh all time high's... until Friday. The bellwethers of the tech stocks on Nasdaq had gotten ahead of themselves; such tendency continues while buyers keep on piling in. On Friday the curtain fell, with a triple digit drop of Nasdaq Comp or 1.8%. Over the week Nasdaq is down 1.55%, while the S&P only eased fractionally and the DJI was still advancing.

Divergence also among precious metals. On Tuesday precious metal markets rallied with gold closing at $1293.6, failing to break above $1300. The retreat until the Friday close wiped away all advance and gold closed at $1266.4, eventually down 0.95% over the week. Silver eased 2.05% to $17.17 and Platinum weakened by 1.78% to $937. Palladium is the usual outlier, bucking the trend and advancing 2.87% over the week to $861.

Miners surged upon precious metals rallying. Despite the following retreat, the HUI holds on to a 2.5% weekly gain. This effectively ended strike of several weeks with miners lagging the metals. Graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page are a good illustration. The turnaround is however not strong enough to end miner undervaluation relative to the HUI/Gold regression line. We only are less far away from a market neutral stance.

The HUI outperforming is not shared to the same extent by the mining ETF's: GDX only holds on to a fractional 0.4% weekly advance and SIL doesn't do much better firming by 0.88%. Both lag GDXJ which recovers 2.84%. The contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet however takes the lead with a 2.93% weekly gain. The long term advance now posts at 4.06%. Nevertheless we have advances (9) balancing declines (9) over the week, but Osisko Royalties (OR.TO) took the lead with a 17.7% rally. That makes much of the difference between leading or lagging our peer ETF's.

Gwyde
Sun, Jun 18, 2017 - 3:50am Gwyde
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YTD advance eroding

A mixed bag for American stock markets, with Nasdaq further sliding away from its ATH, the S&P holding ground over the week and the DJI advancing modestly. Bond markets are better off, since the yield 10Y treasury continues easing to 2.16%. This seems to raise doubt on the growth of the American economy and question whether the hiking policy by the FED still makes sense: the yield curve is flattening, which typically is a recession precursor.

Much less enthusiasm for precious metals, with gold easing 1% to 1253.4 over the week. Silver slid 2.8% to 16.69. Platinum further eased 0.85% to $929 while Palladium is the usual outlier firming 0.35% to $864. Hence the fresh subject: Is a 'Palladium - Platinum price inversion' in the cards? It refers to a recent blog article on that subject.

The miner swoon last Wednesday causes major havoc, especially since the HUI has been grinding lower for 6 consecutive days by now. The weekly loss amounts to 5.16% with HUI/Gold weakening to 0.1482. Graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page tell you more. Year-to-date the advance of the HUI has dwindled to 2.12%.

Among mining ETF's, SIL is the main victim, sliding 5% in line with the HUI. Our contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet didn't do much better weakening 3.43% over the week. Longer term we just stay above break-even by a 0.5% margin. Only 3 advances over the week against 14 declines. Mirasol protects us from worse, with a double digit advance. However its peer Miranda Gold slid double digits. PLG is getting deeper into trouble and I'm wondering if it should stay on the list...

Gwyde
Sun, Jul 2, 2017 - 4:34pm Gwyde
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A lost quarter

It's been two weeks since last update. Stock markets are off their spring highs worldwide. Precious metals add one failed recovery after the other. Silver outperforming gold has been a dead end road. Platinum remains weak, insofar that the Palladium price came within a few percentage of matching Platinum. Rhodium had been the failure in the 2016 precious metal recovery, but it keeps advancing. Rhodium is now more expensive than Platinum.

Precious metal miners suffer both from the metals unable to advance sustainably and of the deteriorating stock market sentiment. The HUI/Gold ratio keeps bumping up and down. It now stands at 0.1495. Fresh graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page are a good illustration. The end of quarter update of the Miners' Performance Page shows ample warning signs.

  • Long term declines crept into the top quintile (the best 20% of the miners in the database)
  • The median loss adds up to 61.6%
  • With 15 explorers or miners down over 90% and again 8 down over 95%, the bottom quintile is almost wiped out... despite delistings

Our contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet was outperforming during the previous week, but lost its edge the last few days. Over two weeks, it is almost flat with the long term advance now at an insignificant 0.27%. The nine long term advances balance the nine long term declines. Timmin's gold renamed itself to Alio Gold, with a 10x share consolidation in the operation. The initial enthusiasm waned quickly after a bought deal to add cash. ALO is down 21% over the week. No improvement for PLG either. I'll bite the bullet and remove both from our list.

Gwyde
Sun, Jul 9, 2017 - 4:27pm Gwyde
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Incessant slide

Congrats to Canadians at the occasion of the 150th anniversary of independence on Saturday July 1st. With the American national holiday on July 4th, that meant two consecutive days with one market closed and low volumes across the board. This mitigated the miner slide resulting from gold plunging on Monday. With the partial mid week gold recovery, we witnessed a higher close of the HUI on Wednesday. Precious metals resumed their slide however, with miners following suite.

On balance gold slid 2.34% to $1212.2, while silver plunged 6.26% to $15.57. The overnight 'flash crash', a downward spike of silver below $15 in thin trading raised quite a few eyebrows. The PGM's limited their decline to 1.95% for Pt and to 0.71% for Pd, which didn't escape the down draft.

The HUI is down 3.67% to 178.9 over the week, with HUI/Gold easing only little to 0.1476. Worse is that the HUI/Gold graph morphs a triangular pattern with lower highs for successive failed recoveries. This doesn't bode well for the near future. Fresh graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page tell more. Despite the silver plunge, the Global X silver miners ETF SIL upholds better, as SIL/Silver at 2.057 illustrates. By now the HUI is down 1.88% year-to-date. Nevertheless the yellow metal holds on to a modest 5.3% YTD advance. Silver slid 2% into the red YTD.

All miner ETF's are off worse than the HUI, with GDX best in class with a 4% decline. GDXJ and SIL slid well over 6%. With a 5% decline (on a comparable basis) our contributor driven explorer and junior miners spreadsheet is amidst the squad. After removing ALO (Alio, former Timmin's gold) and Platinum Group Metals (PLG), as announced last week, the long term advance now stands at 5.31%, while the long term loss -including exits- obviously deteriorates to 29.76%. BTG slid into the red. We now have 8 long term advances and equally 8 long term declines.

Both components removed were good for a double digit slide over the week. There were no advances, but two components managed holding ground. Liberty gold (earlier Pilot Gold) was the only double digit weekly decline.

Gwyde
Sun, Jul 16, 2017 - 12:12pm Gwyde
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Support level holding...

In lackluster trading, American indexes inch a little higher over the week, bucking the gurus' recession/market slide tantrum.
Among precious metals, the slide has been interrupted, with the $1200 support level for gold holding. The yellow metal dipped to a $1212.2 Comex close on July 7 but sweetens 1.34% to $1228.4 on July 14. Similar gain for Platinum, up 1.43% to $919 after bottoming below $900 on Monday. For silver (+2.5% to $15.96) an Palladium (+2.4% to $854) there is some more enthusiasm.

There is some enthusiasm for miners: the HUI advances 3.92% for the week to 185.9 with HUI/Gold firming to 0.1513 as shown on the GMP page. However, when checking HUI against its expected value from the HUI/Gold regression line, we find an exactly neutral stance. The miner performance page proves that since the end of June, declines widely outnumber advances. Long term laggard CZH was discarded after its name/ticker change to RWR, which sweetens the view, but doesn't affect the GMP miners index.

Among mining ETF's weekly advances vary between a timid 2.66% for GOEX or a subdued 2.89% for GDX to a better 3.38% for GDXJ or an enthusiast 4.66% recovery for Silver mining ETF SIL. With a 3.5% advance our Contributed explorer and junior miner list is well positioned against its peers.

Over the week, we have 11 advances against 4 declines with Miranda Gold flat. With a 14.3% weekly advance, IVN makes the difference, while Liberty Gold cuts its loss with a double digit gain. Oceana Gold had a poor week, with a 4.6% decline.

Gwyde
Sun, Jul 23, 2017 - 12:26pm Gwyde
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USD weakness ultimately supporting Precious Metals

American stock markets went slightly higher last week, with Nasdaq leading, while the narrow DJI disappointed, just about failing to break even. Precious metals rallied from their early July lows, with Gold up 2.12% over the week to $1254.1, while the heavily beaten up silver rallied 3.83% to $16.5. PGM's lag, with Platinum adding 1.63% to $934 and Palladium easing 1.53% against the trend. With the greenback sliding to a 10 months low against the euro, international investors are less impressed by the PM rally. USD weakness ultimately starts supporting Precious Metals. In the mean time, US analysts obstinately point to the more dovish tone coming from the FOMC, discarding the possibility for a summer Fed funds rate hike.

Miners are outperforming gold, with the HUI up 3.16% over the week and HUI/Gold firming marginally to 0.1529 as shown on the GMP page. No euforia however, since the residual of HUI against the HUI/Gold regression line keeps sliding into the red.

Among Miner ETF's weekly advances vary from 2.35% for GDXJ to 3.85% for SIL, predictably responding favorably to the silver rally. Our Contributed explorer and junior miner list is among the squad firming 2.49% on a comparable base to a long term gain of 11.72%. Whenever the term 'comparable base' enters comments, this implies there has been a list change: the previously announced acquisition of Integra Gold by Eldorado Gold Corp. was completed, resulting in the delisting of ICG. The stock has been moved to the 'successful exits' tab. Selling ICG in anticipation would have yielded a better return.

Over the week, there were 12 advances against only 2 declines, with 4 list components breaking even. Osisko Gold leads advances with a double digit rally.

Gwyde
Sat, Aug 5, 2017 - 5:53pm Gwyde
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Disappointing

About a year ago, the precious metals rally was about to end, with gold holding above $1300 and silver near $20.

During this summer, the firming of precious metals hardly compensates for the weakening dollar... and at an early sign that the green back might have bottomed, the PM's swoon. It's not inconceivable that bullion priced in euro gets to triple digits again...

In the mean time the usual updates on the GMP page and the Canadian miners performance page are done.

Our Contributed explorer and junior miner list is slightly ahead of its peers last week. Poor comfort: with the HUI down 2.31% and the ETF's plunging between 2.6% (GDX) and 5.3% (SIL), we're still easing 1.83%. Declines outnumber advances 10 to 5.

Gwyde
Wed, Aug 16, 2017 - 6:02am
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Novo Resources Corp.

Last week I stumbled upon Novo Resources Corp (NVO on the Toronto Venture Exchange), home market in Australia.

They had released a promising drilling result which got some attention: covered by Bob Moriarty who visited the exploration site in good company (Brent Cook).

Bought a small stake at CAD 2,80. I never realized it could double in so little time.

Gwyde
Sun, Aug 20, 2017 - 2:50am
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$1300 gold causing more hardship for miners

While geo-political tensions eased, the terrorist attack in Barcelona shook the world on Thursday. American stock markets are off their highs, though with fractional weekly losses only. The damage is larger in Europe.

Despite gold rallying to $1300 on Friday, the yellow metal soon slid back ending the week at $1284.2 on COMEX. Weekly gains were wiped out: gold closed 0.35% down since Friday Aug 11. At $16.94 silver eased 0.94% over the week. PGM's diverge, with Platinum easing 0.61% to $977, but Pd rallying 3.4% to $914. The Pt/Pd gap is once more narrowing.

Miners rallied on Wednesday, but the grinding slide the other days resulted in weekly loss of 0.73% for the HUI, making HUI/Gold ease little to 0.1521. You find the graph updates on the GMP page. GoldCorp has taken over Exeter Resources (XRC) and the quote is cancelled. Wheaton Precious Metals (Silver Wheaton) takes its place.

The Miner Performance page reflects and comments these changes. The main shaker is Primero Mining: after having sold its Black Fox Mine to Mc Ewen Mining in order to raise cash and reduce debt, the stock was slashed. On Aug 14, the stock was delisted from American markets, causing another slide. Since Aug 4, Primero is down 72% to CAD 0.135.

Though miners still are up on average since Aug 4 (previous evaluation), they lag gold. the residual between the HUI/Gold regression line and the HUI value still keeps negative without any sign of improvement.

Among our Benchmark ETF's declines vary from 0.71% (in line with the HUI) for GDXJ to 1.92% for SIL. Our contributor driven junior miner and explorers spreadsheet only eases 0.35%. Poor comfort. Last week week had 7 advances against 8 declines. With a 10.7% decline, Continental Gold was the main drag on our list.

Gwyde
Mon, Aug 21, 2017 - 5:55pm Gwyde
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Cosmic Theory and 2-Inch Lump of Gold Spur 500% Novo Surge

A Cosmic Theory and 2-Inch Lump of Gold Spur 500% Novo Surge

"Quinton Todd Hennigh has spent 13 years scouring the Earth for clues to back a hunch: that the world’s biggest gold resource has lost siblings elsewhere on the planet.

Now the president of Novo Resources Corp. thinks he may have found a counterpart of South Africa’s Witwatersrand in the ancient red rocks near Australia’s northwest coast. In July, his company zeroed in on a gold find that’s confounded geologists and sparked a 500 percent surge in the explorer’s share price."

Gwyde
Sat, Aug 26, 2017 - 4:17pm Gwyde
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Miners still subdued

As gold recovers towards $1300, enthusiasm for the miners is still at the back-burner. We are miles away from the collective euphoria witnessed only little over a year ago.The HUI/Gold regression and resulting residuals tell you more.

American stock markets are posting timid weekly gains. European markets aren't following suit, but the euro is at a fresh 12 months high. This is distorting the whole picture. Precious metals finally ended the week with modest gains: gold added 0.5% to $1290.8 and silver is up 0.65% to $17.06. Platinum is this week's contrarian, easing 0.5% to $972 while Palladium is up 0.66% to $920. PGM's closed lower on Friday, lagging gold and silver.

The HUI adds 2.38% over the week, yet our GMP list based indexes only advance 1.8% for the gold miners index and 1% for the silver miners index. Note that those indexes primarily contain CAD denominated mining stocks. They're lagging as the greenback is weakening. The HUI/Gold ratio sweetens to 1.55 now posting above its 50 dma, as shown on the Gold Miner Pulse page.

Most benchmark miner ETF's are lagging the HUI index, with only the narrow GOEX explorer ETF slightly ahead, firming 2.66%. Our Contributor driven junior mining and explorer list is a the tail end, only advancing 0.32% over the week, with advances (7) balancing declines. The Friday slide of Eurasian is an obvious drawback, yet also MAG silver and Preium (PVG) had a poor week. Moreover, I'm looking for a suitable exit level for microcap Miranda Gold. This small prospect generator adds little value, since we have Mirasol res. as a more obvious choice in this niche.

Gwyde
Sun, Oct 1, 2017 - 9:48am Gwyde
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Could have been worse...

World focus shifts from Rocket man to the US screwing up its relief aid to Puerto Rico and Spanish authorities screwing up credibility after disproportionate violence in disturbing the ongoing referendum in Catalunya.

Meanwhile stock markets are strengthening while precious metals are giving way. Over the week, gold eased 1.36% to $1279.4 while silver is off 2.06% to $16.63. Among PGM's the announced Platinum-Palladium price inversion took its course with Pt down 2.26% to $910 and Palladium advancing 1.53% against the trend to $928.

Precious metal miners could have been off worse: the HUI eased 1.5% over the week to 196.5. The ratio HUI/Gold is flat at 0.153. You find more graphs on the Gold Miner Pulse page: notably silver miners remarkably may have found a bottom, relative to the weaker silver price. The HUI index is less undervalued compared to its HUI/gold linear regression (-21) than where is was with gold above $1300 (trough at -38). Mining investors never really believed in $1300 gold. The miners' performance page always shows the complete picture: with the long term average and median loss aggravating. Last few weeks declines also keep outnumbering advances.

Contrary to last week, most mining ETF's have a hard time catching up with the HUI. The larger ETF"s GDX and GDXJ slid over 2% while SIL limited its weekly loss to 1.4%. Our contributor driven junior miner and explorer spreadsheet is well among the squad with a 1.68% decline, cutting its long term advance to 9.31%. The number of declines lead advances by 9 to 5. B2Gold recovered and rejoins long term advances: over the long haul we now have advances (8) leading the number of declines (6). MAG silver and Ivanhoe mines (both long term advances) caused the major drag on the list, while Oceana Gold and B2Gold were leading advances.

Gwyde
Sat, Oct 7, 2017 - 6:44pm Gwyde
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Ghost rally

American stock markets indexes keep posting historic highs: Dow 22K, S&P above 2500, Nasdaq Comp near 6600 about 30% higher than its Y2K bubble peak... joined by the cryptocurrencies also inflating into bubble territory.

Meanwhile there is little or no interest for precious metals. Gold ends off the Thursday low, yet still down 0.26% for the week. Palladium has been volatile for the week, yet ends on a weak spot, down 1.5%. Nevertheless, the $934 Thursday close was a fresh 16+ year high. The current Platinum-Palladium price inversion had not been seen since autumn 2001 either. Silver and Platinum are the first to post a timid weekly gain. Candidly, Rhodium has risen to the second most expensive precious metal (bid now at $1125). During summer 2016 Rhodium was the notorious laggard, sliding to $585 (barely more than half its current price) shortly after gold peaked in August 2016.

Against the backdrop of precious metal weakness, the stock market ghost rally extends into the precious metal mining space. The HUI is up 2.85% over the week, making HUI/Gold firm to 0.159. You find the usual updates on the gold miner pulse page. This doesn't however make miners overvalued, but the extreme negative residuals of the HUI relative to its HUI/Gold regression estimate makes place for an almost market neutral reading (-12).

Weekly advances for the miner ETF's are within narrow boundaries: from +2.7% (GDX) to +3.0% (SIL). Our narrow (14 components) contributor driven explorer and junior miner spreadsheet has beaten the market this week, adding 5% to a long term advance of 14.76%. Advances outnumber declines 11 to 3 on the list, with a few double digit gains making the difference. Despite correcting on Friday, the 9.8% weekly advance of Ivanhoe Mines is quite influential, given the excellent long term advance, hence high weight. Pretium confirms its uptrend. The highest percentage rallies have been for Continental Gold and Argonaut Gold. However those two picks still have some work to do before breaking even.

The list has been weeded out from about 20 picks to 14. Now I've got an 'incubator list' of possible explorer picks for which I would appreciate any comments, critics and/or appraisals:

Auryn Resources (AUG.TO)
Aurania Resources Ltd (ARU.V)
ASA Gold & Precious Metals (ASA)
Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM.V)
Gold Standard Ventures (GSV.V)
Corvus Gold Inc. (KOR.TO)
Midland Exploration Inc. (MD.V)
Nighthawk Gold Corp. (NHK.TO)
NOVO Resources Corp. (NVO.V) - the inevitable, yet it got very expensive by now...
TerraX Minerals (TXR.V)

Gwyde
Sat, Oct 14, 2017 - 1:59pm Gwyde
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Contrarian miners

Precious metals have been rallying: not only did gold regain $1300, silver has been strengthening to $17.41 with the Au:Ag ratio finally easing a little: silver stopped lagging gold which typically is a good sign. Palladium overtook platinum and is on its way to reaching $1000 for the first time since 2000. Rhodium continues its stealth rally and seems on its way to beat gold as the most expensive precious metal. The bid-ask spread for Rhodium is enormous ($100), with the ask now at $1300. Currently platinum is the more affordable metal in terms of average historic prices.

Miners chose to ignore the good-news show: the HUI index barely added 0.33% over the week, though the yellow metal rallied 2.34%. HUI-Gold weakens to 0.155. Similar conclusions for SIL relative to silver: also silver miners are lagging. You find more graphs on the gold miner pulse page. Fresh graphs on the linear regression of HUI relative to gold prove that residuals once more are plunging. As gold turned around after its latest slide, miners were anticipating the rally; as it materializes, they almost stay put in disbelief.

The miners performance page has been updated, with advances outnumbering declines since Sep 29. The average decline (since Nov 2010) was trimmed to 30%, though the median didn't quite follow suit. Performance disparity once more is increasing, with most of the miners in the top quintile firming, while the laggards in the bottom quintile can't make a turn-around.

Mining ETF's lag the metals as does the HUI. GDXJ is flat for the week, while GDX, SIL and GOEX make modest advances around 1%. Our contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miners spreadsheet selection is excelling with a 2.11% weekly advance. Nevertheless we have declines (8) outnumbering advances (6), but the 22.3% rally for Pretium (results beating forecast) makes the difference.

Gwyde
Sat, Oct 28, 2017 - 6:07pm Gwyde
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Persistently lagging the metals

The last downturn of gold (and silver) brought the yellow metal to a Thursday close of $1266.2 to end the week at 1273.2, easing barely 0.53% over the week. However the HUI plunged 5.31% leveraging gold down tenfold. Miners have been persistently lagging the metals for most of 2017. Whatever well paid perma-bulls may want you to think, the gold mining sector is not the place to be. It can reward you during the short stretches up, but you may end up penniless over the long haul.

Not surprisingly the HUI/Gold ratio dropped to a six months low. The gold miner pulse page tells you all in a few graphs. The Miners performance page also was updated, with a glance on the slide of the last few weeks and the (quite cumbersome) individual performance of most miners and explorers over the long haul.

Miners ETFs were off only marginally better than the HUI, with weekly declines between 2.84% and 4.49%. Poor comfort: with a 2.44% decline our contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miners spreadsheet is off somewhat less bad. We had declines outnumbering advances 10 to 3 on the list, with Liberty gold flat for the week. With a slide in excess of 8%, Almaden Minerals and Eurasian Min. were the major drags on the list. Tiny advances for Osisko Royalties, Sandstorm and Pretium were unable to curb the trend.

Gwyde
Sat, Nov 18, 2017 - 6:52am Gwyde
Gwyde
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Joined: Aug 29, 2011
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2321

Still facing headwinds

Precious metals only yesterday curbed their sideways trend pattern. Gold is up 1.45% over the week of which 1.18% on Friday. The yellow metal closed at $1293.4. Silver added 2.49% over the week to $17.28: a significant gain after lagging gold since early spring 2017. Platinum added 2.27% over the week to $948, while palladium is flat at $988, yet holding on to a still significant Pt-Pd price inversion.

Even though metals are firming, there is little enthusiasm among miners. The HUI is following reluctantly, adding 0.45% over the week. HUI/Gold slid to 0.145 while SIL/Silver even gapped down earlier past week. The gold miner pulse page tells you all in a few graphs. The update of the Miners performance page glances on the ambiguous last few weeks and the (still quite cumbersome) individual performance of most miners and explorers over the long haul. Previous posting got some more material evidence added to illustrate miners persistently lagging the metals.

Mining ETF's were mixed with timid weekly advances (GDX +1.2% best in class) and small declines. After taking the lead for several weeks, our contributor driven Explorer and Junior Miners spreadsheet is off 0.48%. The long term advance still posts at 11.03% and the number of long term advances (8) equals that of long term declines. BTG switched camp to join long term advances. The double digit gain for Eurasian minerals is wiped away against declines for Osisko and Ivanhoe, seeing their long term advance trimmed.

Gwyde
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