Is there really a shortage of metal? Well, this form will try to keep an eye on that important fact.
Please post a brief report here each time you stop in a dealer.
If we compile them, I believe we'll have an important indicator of what is really going on among our class of buyers. below I have quantified the various reports that appeared from Wed to Friday. I simply averaged the premium on ASE's and Maples that were reported. Then I made a jusgemnt call on the "availability" descriptions and rated them on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being very hard to get, 2 being silver less available than usual, 3 is normal stock, 4 lots of choices, and 5 when you can hardly give ht stuff away.
For the week ending 11-7-14 we have the following data
Average premium on 1 oz minted coin: $3.79
Shortage report: 1.7 out of 5. Lower stock than usual, buy most customers get what they are after.
Priced at the usual spot+$2.50 in US and converted to CAD at the mid-market rate.
Since its a storefront currency exchange there is no visual indication of stock.
According to the most recent podcast by the guys at Silver Doctors, one U.S. silver wholesaler has . . overpromised . . and was forced to send out messages cancelling many many orders. Sorry I can't be more specific but they weren't.
Hi Doc, I just want to say I love all your posts! I am here on vacation visiting Sedona. I will be coming to Phoenix area for the 12th, 13th and fly out back to Hawaii on the 14 th. I was wondering if you could tell me where the best Phoenix area cash and carry dealer for silver American eagles. If you had the time it would be fun to meet over a cocktail at your favorite watering hole. I like your new thread and to add my latest experience I went to Coin Heaven in Cottonwood. I purchased his Silver Eagles for $4 over spot.
I am a mere 45 miles from you up in Flagstaff. We went on a hike at the head of Sycamore Canyon just this afternoon.
Has our private messaging been disabled?
I am sitting in my room at the Bell Rock Inn room number 145. I will be here until Monday morning. I am not a paid member of
TFMR so I don't believe I have private message ability. You could email me at dragonman1950[at]gmail[dot]com. I would love to get together and shoot the breeze. Ps the number here is 928 282 4161 ext 145
It was interesting today at my local coin shop. they had silver eagles at spot (15.80) +3.50. they were sold out of 90% and was actually short to comitted sales. they sold out of silver maples earlier in the day @ spot +2.60. they were selling 40% kennedy half at 4.72 per face dollar (= 15.96/oz a mere 16 cents over spot). i saw plenty going out out the door 2x 100 ounce bars, a bunch of rounds. Also they limited a silver eagle purchase to 50 tubes. the place got very crowded, i did see a mid 60's fellow bring in some silver to sell (about $3500 worth of silver). i felt bad seeing him sell what seemed to me to be circulated coins he had for a very long time. plus it was the 90% that i wanted to buy. there were conflicting reports that the US mint was done making 2014 silver eagles and are now going to make 2015 which will not be offered until Jan 2015 or were going to resume making 2014.
jmo but it seems odd that perhaps the best and brightest comment thread on the entire WWW. will be somewhere else other than main street because a few bad actors.
It is the BILL of RIGHTS not the BILL of NEEDS
...expecting a) premiums to go up, b) stocks to deplete, or c) both. Of course, both happened.
Until Thursday (11/6), the shop had been selling silver Maples & Phils @+2.25 and ASEs at $2.75. Of course, by Thursday they were out of all of the above, with only Canadian wildlife series coins @$30/oz (grizzly & puma) & numis in stock. Their premiums on Maples had gone up to +$3.25, generic rounds @+$1.25. Today (Sat, 11/8) they had ASEs only -- at +$4.25. There were only a handful of bullion coins (Krugerrands, maples, 100 Koronas) in gold at the beginning of the week -- did not check those since then. https://www.wscbrc.com/bullion
My other go-to LCS had generic rounds @+$1.40, 90% @ $12.75 per face value, Crocs & Wildlife (hawks) @+$5.00. Their last tube of Phils wandered via my hands into a deep lake @+$3.25. They had ordered another monster box of ASEs, due for delivery mid-next week -- but 300 of those ounces were already sold. Maples not expected until 11/18. Out of all bars and other sovereign 1 oz coins. There was plenty of gold, including small foreign fractionals, 1 g Maples, and even a gold nugget.
The owner complained that no matter how much silver he orders, and what the price is, he cannot keep it in the shop. He tried to convince me that the current tightness in ASE and Maples was merely due to the switchover to 2015 coins. I quietly disagreed, expressing hope that he was right nevertheless.
I sent you an email.
I sent a reply to your email...
Dr Jerome wrote: Has our private messaging been disabled?
To clarify, TF changed the private messaging (PM) policies about a month ago. Only gold members can send PMs, and it's only possible to PM other gold members.
A co-worker of mine and I use a local LCS for our PM purchases. We have spent enough money with them to whereby we just call and reserve what we want and lock in a price by phone. It is a very nice courtesy because we can lock in a low price and pick up a couple of days later. In the event the price goes up we are good and if it goes down we get the better price!
Here is the exact email from my co-worker from last Thursday:
(the names have been changed to protect the innocent)
"Just got of the phone with xxxxx at xxxxx, he said he’s had lines out the door last 2 days, and has sold out of several products. I reserved a 100 oz bar for $1,650. Have to pay cash or check. No credit!"
Little or no 90%.
Lots of 80%, currently with 5% premium.
Maples and Eagles with a 26% premium.
A guy brought in 15 100oz JM bars a couple days ago. Went in yesterday and they still had 10 of them at .75 over.
Did you by chance read my post on coin heaven or did you find it yourself. Just curious.
I guess you didn't see my post back on the main forum, so I will Thank You here again for your lead. I went to CoinHeaven, Thursday and I told them that I was here to buy silver because of one of your satisfied customers who recommended you on a post from TFMR. He appeared to know about the site. We had a nice chat and I bought all the silver eagles he had. If you ever come to Kauai give me a shout and I will bring you to my absolutely great coin guy.
I'm glad it was a worthwhile experience.
Are you in Canada?
Spot was $15.40 Friday 11/7/14 noonish when I went in.
This is a longtime shop run by two older men, when spot goes too low for them they hold the line on prices.
Generic Rounds $20.00 2014 ASE $22.00
They had a good supply of everything, 20 ASEs in slips on display, bins of rounds and bars.
One pound coffee cans of 90% they let you go through and pick what you want:
Dimes 1/3rd full, Quarters ½ full, halves 1/5th full, all circulated at 14 x Face.
Interestingly, an older woman came in and wanted to sell a roll of Morgans dated in the 1880s. He quoted her $20 each. She asked if he wanted more, she had two more rolls in her car. He said yes.
When she came back in one roll was Peace Dollars, he said I usually don’t pay $20 for Peace Dollars, but I will this time….
All the coins I saw (from a discrete distance) looked XF and fairly bright. Nice.
Yep, Canada (most of the time).
We are blessed with a local coin show once a month at a small venue, 25+ tables of mostly numismatics with some collectible paper.
Lately the most action has been at the 3 or 4 bullion coin dealers.
Saturday, November 8th, 2014. Spot at $15.78
It starts at 9:00 am, I got there at 9:30.
The one dealer who had Provident Prospector rounds at $18.00 was already sold out, most other better generics also, one dealer had a few Silver Buffaloes left at $18.00.
Usually there are plenty of OPMs around, but not this time.
2014 ASEs were $20.00 at several tables..........$19.50 if you bought 10 or more.
Other recent dates of ASEs were available at $20 or slightly above.
No Silver Maples except for a full tube at $22.50 each.
1/10 th AGE at $134.00 and $136.00
A dealer with 90% in bags was charging 13 to 15 times face and he usually sells out by noon.
I bought a $10 face bag of beautiful mixed date XF/AU Franklins for 14x that actually look BU, unless they are right next to a real bag of BU.
I'm a sucker for nice Franklins.