Silver supply/demand historical and current

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Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 3:35am Wy So Lo
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Hi ZMAN

On second thoughts just listen to Andy Hoffman on Turds A2A . He explains it with style. I rest your case.

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 12:02pm Wy So Lo
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Wy So Lo wrote: On second

Wy So Lo wrote:

On second thoughts just listen to Andy Hoffman on Turds A2A . He explains it with style. I rest your case.

I did listen as well, I guess the thesis that low base metal prices will eventually cause a reduction in mining does make some sense, but with copper at $2.34 lb we are not there yet.

All the reduction of base mining will do is put a floor on the price of all commodities (zinc, lead, copper, silver). I don't see it causing any shortages since the demand remains so weak. Like all industries, as soon as the price rebounds the production starts up once again, so I don't see supply drying up for very long.

Look at oil today, even with oil at $45 per barrel, production is still at record highs, producers can still supply the market even at cash flow negative for many years.

Andy is getting a little ahead of himself if he thinks silver supply is going to dry up and them demand starts soaring as the price spikes higher, not very likely.

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 2:07pm
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Mining is not like other industries

Zman says " Like all industries, as soon as the price rebounds the production starts up once again, so I don't see supply drying up for very long."

Shutting down a mine still causes expenses in care and maintenance, for example de-watering. What will kill supply is no money for future deposit development. Mining ore bodies deplete over time and when no new deposits coming online will eventually cause the price squeeze down the road. When this will occur is an unknown but the seeds are being sown for this event now.

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 3:44pm
HappyNow
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Wy So Lo what's your

Wy So Lo what's your timeline? You may eventually be shown to be correct but that may be as much accident as foresight.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 7:00pm silverwood
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silverwood wrote: Zman says

silverwood wrote:

Zman says " Like all industries, as soon as the price rebounds the production starts up once again, so I don't see supply drying up for very long."

Shutting down a mine still causes expenses in care and maintenance, for example de-watering. What will kill supply is no money for future deposit development. Mining ore bodies deplete over time and when no new deposits coming online will eventually cause the price squeeze down the road. When this will occur is an unknown but the seeds are being sown for this event now.

We are already 4 plus years into the commodity decline and the production still remains robust. If Freeport, BHP and others start closing major mines because of low prices, then you have something, until then it's just speculation.

Do you remember how long it took for the commodity sector to finally reached a bottom to unbalance the supply/demand equation? 1980-2000 - twenty years!!!

Even with those decade low prices, the production still stayed on line and kept the prices low. Freeport can mine copper even at $1 lb, that's still other -60% decline from here.

There's no reason to remain bullish on silver because of the potential of base metal mining reducing supply, it's just another wild pipe dream spewed out by the perma-bulls.

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 8:55pm zman
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Supply Demand

As Zman states, supply is going to continue at a relatively predictable rate until the companies close down or go broke or market factors improve sufficiently. For the last couple of years the exploration companies have been been in steep decline and that has created a gap in the miners future mining resource options. It is logically foreseeable that, at best, production will remain stable, gradually decline or gradually increase. My superficial prediction is that production will decline at a steady rate until shortages of base metals re ignite the mining sector. In this period we will see a strong trend towards the safety of precious metals, given the stance of inflation, zirp and nirp, being trotted out globally.

So where are we, as permabulls headed as far as demand side goes? Let's start at current demand for silver. Industrial demand is still quite robust for many reasons. Solar, electronics and medical applications are still growing in their use of silver and are unlikely to come to a decline any time that silver is below say, $100 oz. because the per item cost is low. That leaves us with investment demand/protective demand. Currently we are seeing unprecedented demand that is demonstrating itself in the form of a trend. This can be seen in the charts that SRSROCCO and others post, and could be easily interpreted as potentially parabolic. During the run up to our last peak of $48 i was vocal about silver's potential and as a result saw friends and family inc. myself, take around 5000oz off the shelf. That was probably 10% max of the people i talked to, The remaining 90% will remember ol' Wy So Lo telling them about silver should it ever reach exciting levels again. Recently, as of last night recently, one of the people that bought a box of 2011 koalas was lamenting the old 'silver isnt doing much' situation. Rather than saying the worn out lines that we have all heard, i went to Ebay and discovered the going price for 2011 koalas is $49+ freight costs of more than actual cost, so say average $54 . The invoice showed a cost of $44 all in each, so that is not too bad. Meanwhile the spot price of silver has gone from $36 down to $16. My point here is that there is an understanding of the value of silver and gold that is growing in spite of the doldrum price.

My forecast is that within a week of a critical mass being reached, which i think will be about 2% of the global population or less, putting their money on the counter and saying give me 5oz, silver will be unobtainable, by reasonable assessment. The value of silver will be difficult to determine because it will be, a. Moving so rapidly b.Whithout a peer c. Over reaching its historic range.(pendulum effect). I further predict that it will all happen within three months from today. Ha.

I find it difficult to fault Andy Hoffman and his assessments even though he has a vested interest in promoting PM's.

I could go on but it's all been said before. If we are right we will have a wonderful reward, if wrong, we have a bit of extra super Win Win

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 9:16pm
Wy So Lo
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Oh yea

I will just add to the oil comment by silverwood. You are absolutely correct. Oil is not a commodity as such, it is nations, in the sense that countries like Saudhi Arabia UAE Venesualla and other countries with hard to spell names, rely, because of the dependence on the oil dollar, for their very existence. It is a waste of time saying that they can extract and sell oil for x, when it is tied to the whole country's needs.

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 10:22pm
Wy So Lo
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Zerohedge manipulation

Sat, Oct 31, 2015 - 11:37pm
Wy So Lo
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And for a contrary opinion

John Kaiser on future money trends with Daniel A

Sun, Nov 1, 2015 - 9:27am Wy So Lo
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Wy So Lo wrote: As

Wy So Lo wrote:

As Zman states, supply is going to continue at a relatively predictable rate until the companies close down or go broke or market factors improve sufficiently. For the last couple of years the exploration companies have been been in steep decline and that has created a gap in the miners future mining resource options. It is logically foreseeable that, at best, production will remain stable, gradually decline or gradually increase. My superficial prediction is that production will decline at a steady rate until shortages of base metals re ignite the mining sector. In this period we will see a strong trend towards the safety of precious metals, given the stance of inflation, zirp and nirp, being trotted out globally.

So where are we, as permabulls headed as far as demand side goes? Let's start at current demand for silver. Industrial demand is still quite robust for many reasons. Solar, electronics and medical applications are still growing in their use of silver and are unlikely to come to a decline any time that silver is below say, $100 oz. because the per item cost is low. That leaves us with investment demand/protective demand. Currently we are seeing unprecedented demand that is demonstrating itself in the form of a trend. This can be seen in the charts that SRSROCCO and others post, and could be easily interpreted as potentially parabolic. During the run up to our last peak of $48 i was vocal about silver's potential and as a result saw friends and family inc. myself, take around 5000oz off the shelf. That was probably 10% max of the people i talked to, The remaining 90% will remember ol' Wy So Lo telling them about silver should it ever reach exciting levels again. Recently, as of last night recently, one of the people that bought a box of 2011 koalas was lamenting the old 'silver isnt doing much' situation. Rather than saying the worn out lines that we have all heard, i went to Ebay and discovered the going price for 2011 koalas is $49+ freight costs of more than actual cost, so say average $54 . The invoice showed a cost of $44 all in each, so that is not too bad. Meanwhile the spot price of silver has gone from $36 down to $16. My point here is that there is an understanding of the value of silver and gold that is growing in spite of the doldrum price.

My forecast is that within a week of a critical mass being reached, which i think will be about 2% of the global population or less, putting their money on the counter and saying give me 5oz, silver will be unobtainable, by reasonable assessment. The value of silver will be difficult to determine because it will be, a. Moving so rapidly b.Whithout a peer c. Over reaching its historic range.(pendulum effect). I further predict that it will all happen within three months from today. Ha.

I find it difficult to fault Andy Hoffman and his assessments even though he has a vested interest in promoting PM's.

I could go on but it's all been said before. If we are right we will have a wonderful reward, if wrong, we have a bit of extra super Win Win

"silver will be unobtainable"

Come on, I hope you really don't believe in such nonsense. If demand increases the price will move higher, this is how markets work. Hoffman is a conspiracy nut and nothing more, he's been wrong for years. Do you know what would move silver higher in price? INFLATION, there is none in developed economies.

Sun, Nov 1, 2015 - 6:05pm zman
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Inflation

Exactly as i said in my previous post, but i think that some Australians New Zealanders and Canadians may disagree with your statement that they are not a developed economy. For those who missed the subtle sleight of hand the quote should read "silver will be unobtainable, by reasonable assessment" . By this i would like to add by further clarification, forward sales of production will be allocated to where ever the owner chooses and this will be unlikely to reach your and my canoe. Once again zman i thank you for your input and support.

Mon, Nov 9, 2015 - 4:51am Wy So Lo
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Natcore

There is an excellent article over at Brotherjohnf's channel Silver for the people regarding Natcore claim that they can now replace silver with aluminium hence making silver obsolete .Good read with lots of background checking and exposes it for the fraud and active disinformation that it is .....Excellent.

Mon, Nov 9, 2015 - 6:59pm
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supply demand

Venezuela Default Countdown Begins: After Selling Billions In Gold, Caracas Raids 7 Million In IMF Reserves

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/09/2015 - 18:43

While ridiculous, Venezuela's decision to liquidate some of its gold is perhaps understandable under the circumstances: Venezulea relies on crude oil for 95% of its export revenue, and with prices refusing to rebound, the only question is when do all those CDS which price in a Venezuela default finally get paid. What is even more understandable is what Venezuela should have done in the first place before dumping a fifth of its gold, but got to do eventually, namely raiding all of the IMF capital held under its name in a special SDR reserve account.

Oh yea

Hat Tip!

0

I will just add to the oil comment by silverwood. You are absolutely correct. Oil is not a commodity as such, it is nations, in the sense that countries like Saudhi Arabia UAE Venesualla and other countries with hard to spell names, rely, because of the dependence on the oil dollar, for their very existence. It is a waste of time saying that they can extract and sell oil for x, when it is tied to the whole country's needs.

Mon, Nov 9, 2015 - 7:19pm
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MICKEY D FRENCH FRIES $79.00 PER ORDER...

Mon, Nov 9, 2015 - 10:52pm Dyna mo hum
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Hey

Make that a upsize double, im feeling wealthy.

Wed, Nov 11, 2015 - 5:41am
Wy So Lo
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SRSROCCO

Another article on supply side silver https://srsroccoreport.com/biggest-silver-supply-losers-for-2015/ and i hope you all appreciate the Aussies doing their bit withholding supply.

Breaking news, USA attacks Mount Isa Declares it a terrorist mine. liberates its silver...Australia shocked.

Thu, Nov 12, 2015 - 2:00pm
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Pan American Silver Reports 3Q Loss But Rise In Silver, Gold Pr

Some highlights from article;

During the third quarter, Pan American produced 6.61 million ounces of silver and a quarterly record of 53,600 ounces of gold. Silver production rose 7% from the third quarter of 2014

Pan American generated $159.4 million in revenue during the third quarter, a decline of 11% compared to the same quarter of 2014. The main reason for the decrease was the price deterioration for all metals produced by the company

You can read the article here...https://www.kitco.com/news/2015-11-12/Pan-American-Silver-Reports-3Q-Los...

Mon, Nov 16, 2015 - 1:02pm
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First Majestic Silver Reports 3Q Loss

First Majestic Silver Reports 3Q Loss; Cost-Cutting Efforts Include Personnel Cuts

you can read it here...https://www.kitco.com/news/2015-11-16/First-Majestic-Silver-Reports-3Q-L...

“Management believes leaving higher cost ounces in the ground is a prudent choice for its shareholders until silver prices improve,” said First Majestic’s earnings released... A LONE VOICE of reason in a FOG OF STUPIDITY!

Mon, Nov 16, 2015 - 7:15pm
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First majestic

Aggressive takeover in 3 2 1....

Tue, Nov 17, 2015 - 12:58am
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From comments section

Greg hunters USA Watchdog Hope i am not breaching any protocol by linking this one

Geo. T (formerly George)01/16/2014 •

how much gold is in the world? What is the real ration between silver and gold. I am not sure looking at the past for the ratio is the right way to go. At the time of the Koran, silver was at a different ratio and it varied by area. The King of Spain ripped 42,000 tonnes of silver out of on mine in Peru. SO much that it devalued silver to gold in Europe.
The below contains a few estimates albeit rational ones. One group guess 2.5 mill tonnes but admit they have no evidence. Making a estimate without evidence, isn’t that like call Ms. Cleo, the psychic for lottery numbers and then being surprised when you don’t win? Or we can call it “pull it out you a$$.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-21969100
excerpt of above link article
“Up until 1492, the year Columbus sailed to America, GFMS estimates that 12,780 tonnes had been extracted.

But one investor who looked at the research done in this area, James Turk, the founder of Gold Money, discovered what he regarded as a series of over-estimates.

He believes that the primitive mining techniques used up to the Middle Ages mean that this figure is much too high, and that a more realistic total is just 297 tonnes.

Tonnes of gold GFMS James Turk
Pre-1492 12,780 297
Post-1492 158,520 154,947
Total 171,300 155,244

His figure for the overall amount of gold in the world is 155,244 tonnes – 16,056 tonnes, or 10% less, than the assessment by Thompson Reuters GFMS. A relatively small disparity, perhaps, but one that at today’s prices comes to more than $950bn.

His conclusions are accepted by some investors but such is the feeling between rival analysts that one competitor described Turk’s figures as an alternative to the GFMS’s “in the same way that Jedi is an alternative to Christianity”.”
While I do believe that silver is under valued, so is gold. We will not have a true notion of the value of silver verses gold until the games stop at Comex and London.
–from other sources concerning silver to gold ratio, mined and by price–
The silver/gold ratio is how much silver gold can buy. As of 06 May 2013, it is 61.12:1 (meaning that an ounce of gold will buy 61.12 ounces of silver). Historically, this has been about 15:1 (see explanation or graph), and came about in diverse geographic areas, suggesting that a 15:1 ratio is ‘normal’ (assuming that silver and gold are used as money). There have been roughly 10.48 ounces of silver mined for every ounce of gold (currently, it is 8.52:1), which likely accounts for why for centuries the ratio was about 15:1. If for some reason the silver/gold ratio returned to 15:1, silver would increase in price significantly.
The best estimates show 680.900 million ounces of silver mined per year in 2008, and 79.895 million ounces of gold mined per year (per GFMS Ltd.). That works out to 8.52 ounces of silver mined annually for every ounce of gold, which suggests that silver should be priced at about 1/8 the price of gold, requiring silver to rise about about {750%} to reach it.
Historically, about 10.48 ounces of silver have been mined for every ounce of gold. This backs the idea of a 15:1 silver/gold ratio (presumably, the idea was that on average people would have half their wealth in gold, and half in silver). It could also be argued that since silver is also an industrial metal (I.E. a lot is consumed, never to be seen again), the silver ratio should be lower than the 10.48:1 mined ratio. If people desired equal values of silver and gold, and silver and gold were distributed evenly, there would be about an 10.48:1 ratio (assuming silver used industrially could be used; if not, the ratio would be more in favor of silver). This would result in a {550%} increase in the price of silver (or corresponding decrease in the price of gold

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