Silver supply/demand historical and current

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Spartacus Rex
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@ Nick Elway "Did they use a calculator?"

Hey blabber mouth, SHhhhhhh!

82c0b907e9530faa4d1ad2fe140a747137f6f85b

And Stack ON!

Cheers, S. Rex

silverwood
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Outlook for New Electrical & Electronic Uses of Silver

The Silver Institute Releases Report on the Outlook for New Electrical & Electronic Uses of Silver Silver Industrial Demand Expected to Outpace Global GDP Growth Through 2016 (Washington, DC – July 31, 2014) The Silver Institute today released a report titled “The Outlook for New Electrical and Electronic Uses of Silver.” The report identifies three key potential growth areas for silver demand: flexible electronics; light emitting diodes (LEDs); and interposers. These three growth areas combined have the potential to add another 20 million ounces of silver to total demand by 2018. The report was produced by Metals Focus, the London-based independent precious metals research consultancy, on behalf of the Silver Institute. Highlights of the report include: According to Metals Focus, silver industrial demand, which accounts for over 50 percent of global demand, is expected to grow 5 percent per year from 2014-2016, outpacing forecasted global GDP growth. Within the flexible electronics sector, the report forecasts notable gains in silver use for flexible displays. Flexible displays, which incorporate silver, can be found in tablets, cell phones and e-readers. The report indicates a healthy rise in LED demand, driven by falling costs and increasingly stringent lighting energy legislation that will accelerate LED adoption, thus leading to strong growth for silver demand. Interposers that include silver could hold considerable promise for future silver demand. Interposers enable far greater functionality in the next generation of semiconductor chips. Given the greater technical demands made of interposers, glass, with the addition of silver, is being considered as an alternative material. Metals Focus maintains that should glass (and therefore silver) prevail as the interposer technology of choice, silver demand is on course to benefit. The report also examines the outlook for established end-uses, such as silver’s use in ethylene oxide (EO) production, which is a key building block chemical in the production of detergents, solvents and plastics. Silver demand in the EO sector has enjoyed near uninterrupted growth over the past 30-40 years, primarily due to the growing demand for a range of consumer and industrial products. The EO category could witness even greater silver demand, especially in the United States, with the advent of shale gas, potentially yielding new EO plants. Metals Focus also reports that silver’s use in photovoltaics for solar power installations may well surpass its previous demand peak, registered in 2011, as early as 2016-17. “With the introduction of these advanced uses of silver in the electrical and electronics category, which last year provided over 40 percent of total silver industrial demand, along with growth in established uses, we should see silver industrial demand develop even further, especially as economies grow globally,” stated Michael DiRienzo, Executive Director of the Silver Institute. The report can be downloaded free of charge at: The Outlook for New Electrical & Electronic Uses of Silver Report

silverwood
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Hecla Reports Third Quarter 2014 Results

highlights;

  • Total silver production of 2.9 million ounces, a 25% increase over the prior year quarter
  • Third quarter silver equivalent production of 7.7 million ounces, and 22.6 million silver equivalent ounces for the first nine months of 2014.3
  • * my input*, only 37.6% of Hecla's production was from silver, also Hecla is increasing supply of silver into falling prices as they realized a silver price of $18.53 for their silver.So with silver prices at these levels what will Hecla have to do to stay profitable?

http://investors.hecla-mining.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=63202&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1985980

brokerk22
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@silverwood

The main reason hecla's metal production increased so much over the prior year is because their flagship mine was closed most of last year.  They are now just up and running close to their normal capacity with the Lucky Friday mine running at close to capacity.

zman
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supply

http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-11-19/Silver-Demand-To-Drop-In-2014-GFMS.html

"Mine supply forecast to reach a record in 2014, with output from Guatemala, Mexico, Chile and Peru rising. Mine supply is seen up 3.5% to 868 million ounces. "

"Scrap supply, is expected to fall by 14%, they said. Even with the decline in secondary supply, total supplies will rise 2.9% year over year, to 1.131 billion ounces"

Looks like the supply side is providing plenty of evidence why silver trades at $16 oz today.

JY896
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For anyone really interested...(avert your eyes, zman)

...here is the 2014 Silver Survey published by GFMS:

http://www.mineralinfo.fr/sites/default/files/upload/documents/worldsilversurvey-2014_silverinstitute.pdf

I would call attention to a few main points, though the whole report is interesting:

-Their methodology states that the numbers they are working from a series of INTERVIEWS conducted with various players along the supply chain in a selection of countries (hence the name SILVER SURVEY). Not SILVER DATA REPORT or SILVER AGGREGATE SUPPLY/DEMAND METRICS, but 'survey'. (page 11 of PDF)

- Total LBMA OTC market volume was 2.36M tons, roughly 90 TIMES 2013 mine production. Nothing to see there, move along

- Total silver demand (according to this report) has outstripped supply EVERY SINGLE YEAR SINCE 2004. In 2013 the deficit was 113.3 tons vs. total supply of 978.1 tons, roughly 11.5%.

WRT the press release announcing the "7% drop in global silver demand", there are a few observations as well:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/19/silver-gfms-demand-idUSL2N0T821620141119

- The authors did not bother to break out their calculators: if you add up the 2014 demand numbers you see:

Jewelry: 189.2

Coins & Bars: 191.6

Silverware: 46.2

Industrial fabrication: 588

Physical demand (as stated in press release): 1,077

Actual sum: 1,015

For projected demand in 2014:

Jewelry: 197.9

Coins & Bars: 241.6

Silverware: 49.5

Industrial fabrication: 577.5

Physical demand (as stated in press release): 1,004.5

Actual sum: 1,066

Demand increase of 55 tons against baseline of 1,015 ==> 5.4% increase

Concurrently, the Silver Institute also seems to think that Industrial demand is increasing (see silverwood's post above):

"According to Metals Focus, silver industrial demand, which accounts for over 50 percent of global demand, is expected to grow 5 percent per year from 2014-2016, outpacing forecasted global GDP growth."

Full report in PDF form here: The Outlook for New Electrical & Electronic Uses of Silver Report

So... which is it, guys?

PS: Just saw Nick Elway beat me to the calculator -- kudos...

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ancientmoney
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It seems zman's only reason to exist...

is to steer people away from silver.

I do not think this is because he cares for anyone's well-being.  He is either a banker, or paid by them to watch blogs.  He only posts when he feels a need to negate anything positive said about silver.

Just an observation.

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A valued perspective from SRSrocco on GFMS silver market report

Silver Mine Supply To Peak 2-3 Years & Drawdown Of LBMA Inventory – GFMS

Filed in MiningPrecious Metals by SRSrocco on November 20, 2014 • 3 Comments

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According to GFMS, the world is expected to see a peak in silver mine supply in the next 2-3 years.  This statement including this year’s supply and demand statistics were released in the GFMS 2014 Silver Market Interim Report for the Silver Institute.

GFMS states the reason for the peak in silver mine supply is due to “current price levels maintaining production but constraining investment in new capacity.”  Basically, they are saying the current low silver price will maintain production for the meanwhile, but this has created a decline in mining investment, precipitating a peak in global silver production. In addition, they see silver scrap supply falling from 25% of total supply in 2012 to only 16% in 2014.

One striking statistic from the Silver Interim Report is the total drop-off of government silver sales.  From 2004 to 2013, net government silver sales totaled 366 million ounces.  Government silver sales hit a high in 2006 at 78.5 million oz and a low of 7.4 million oz in 2012.

World Silver Supply 2014 GFMS

However, GFMS shows in this graph (from the Silver Interim Report), that net government sales fell from 7% of total supply in 2004 to ZIP in 2014.  During the past decade, most government silver sales came from China, Russia and India.  Even though government sales were only 7.9 million oz in 2013, it looks as if this official supply has now totally dried up.

And who could blame them.  Why should China, Russia or India sell their government silver bullion into the market for peanuts while the Fed funnels its monetary stimulus through its member banks into the stock and bond markets while capping the value of commodities and the precious metals?

From their press release, GFMS states the following on world mine supply:

On the supply side, mine production is forecast to reach all-time highs in the silver industry in 2014 as supply from Guatemala, Mexico, Chile and Peru increases. This is forecast to see primary supply increase by 3.5% in 2014 to 868 Moz.

GFMS believes total global silver production will increase 3.5% over 2013 to 868 million oz in 2014.  Last year, GFMS reported world silver production at 819.6 Moz.  I gather 2013 will be revised upwards to 838 Moz.  It’s perfectly understandable to revise figures, but how could GFMS miss a whopping 20 Moz??

That being said, the most IMPORTANT FACTOR to understand from their Interim Report is the announcement of the planned peak of world silver mine supply in the next 2-3 years.  This actually makes sense if we consider not just the supply constraints coming from reduced mining investment capacity, but also the impact of peak global oil production… which also seems likely to occur in the next few years.

On the demand side of the equation, GFMS forecasts physical silver demand to fall 6.7% in 2014 compared to 2013.  They show small percentage declines in jewellery, photography, silverware and industrial application silver consumption, but a larger drop-off in physical silver bar and coin demand.

Even though GFMS estimates silver bar and coin demand to fall 20% in 2014 compared to last year, they had this to say in their press release:

Meanwhile demand for silver bars and coins has soared in recent weeks as bargain hunting retail investors returned to the silver market after a disappointing first half of the year. Nowhere is this more evident than in India where imports of silver are up by 14% year-on-year for the January to October period and set for an annual record. With imports in the first ten months totaling a massive 169 Moz many vaults in the UK, traditionally the largest supplier to India, have seen significant drawdowns, leading to more supply flowing from China and Russia.

According to the data above, if India continues to import a record amount of silver for the rest of the year, total imports may reach 200 million oz — nearly 25% of total world mine supply.  Also, Indian silver demand is so strong, the UK is experiencing a draw-down of silver inventories at the LBMA.

If Russia and China had to step in and supply silver to India as the LBMA inventories are running low, what does this mean if we see an explosion in physical silver investment demand in the future??  A draw-down of LBMA silver inventories may be the beginning sign of looming future physical delivery problems.

I believe total physical coin and bar demand will be higher than the 192 Moz figure forecasted by GFMS for 2014.  This is down 50 Moz from the high of 242 Moz in 2013.  Furthermore, I would imagine the majority of this estimated decline was in physical bar investment as official silver coin sales remain strong.

Lastly, there is a lot of hype about the Solar Power Industry becoming a huge consumer of silver in the future.  I have always stated that industrial silver demand, especially solar power demand, will not be much of determining factor in setting price in the future.  Wall Street analysts continue to regurgitate that industrial silver demand will grow for the next 5-10 years.  Hogwash.

When the peak of global oil production takes place within the next several years, this will impact Global GDP growth.  Matter-a-fact, world economic activity will contract along with the decline in global oil production.  Which means, demand for silver in industrial applications will decline as well.

AND IT ALREADY HAS…LOL.  If we look at this last chart also from the Interim Report, we can clearly see that silver demand in the Photovoltiac Market peaked in 2011 at approximately 65 Moz, and is forecasted to nearly fall in half in 2014 at 35 Moz.

Photovoltiac Silver Demand 2014F GFMS

Sure, maybe the solar power manufacturers are using less silver in their panels… so what.  It’s the overall consumption that matters.  If total silver consumption in the solar power industry is declining, then why do we still hear analysts say this will be a BIG MARKET for silver in the future???

Again, I have always stated that the future spike rise in the price of silver will not be due to industrial demand, but rather to the massive increase in physical bullion investment when the Global Paper Ponzi Scheme implodes.  This is not a matter of IF, but WHEN.

Industrial silver demand (minus photography) peaked in 2011 at 573 Moz and will decline to an estimated 530 Moz in 2014.  However, physical bar and coin demand is four times higher than what it was before the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Market collapse in 2007 (51 Moz in 2007 & 242 Moz in 2013).

All-in-all, GFMS estimates that silver market will experience a 6 Moz oz surplus this year compared to the revised 85 Moz deficit in 2013.  I believe we may actually see a small annual silver deficit in 2014 when GFMS tallies year-end figures and publishes its 2015 World Silver Survey… come April next year.

Remember, the two most important FACTORS from the GFMS Interim Report:

1) World Mine Supply to Peak in 2-3 years.

2) Draw-down of LBMA silver inventories.

Just watch and see how these two indicators will impact the price of silver in the future.  Unfortunately, the world is not prepared for what’s coming… and very few are invested in Gold & Silver that enjoy a  2,000+ year proven track record as real money, high quality investments, and stores of wealth.

Please check back for new articles and updates at the SRSrocco Report.  You can also follow us a Twitter below:

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silverwood
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Silver Supply & Demand Interim Report (video)

zman
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@silverwood

Good video, I suggest others watch it.

@ancient

"is to steer people away from silver"

I have never told one person to sell and I have never told anyone not to buy. I try to explain why silver trades at $16 oz today, I believe it's based on market fundamentals, you think it manipulation.

silverwood
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[PDF] Silver - USGS

minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/silver/mcs-2013-silve.pdf

147 SILVER . World silver mine production increased to a new record of 24,000 tons as a result of increased production from mines in China, ...

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155 SILVER Events, Trends, and Issues : Domestic mine production of silver in 1997 increased by about 2% from production in 1996. Domestic consumption ...

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HappyNow
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When SRSRocco talks about the

When SRSRocco talks about the decline in silver available from scrap one must keep in mind that scrap supply is an elastic inventory and when price is high supply increases while when price is low supply decreases.

People were selling heirloom tea sets and silverware when silver was $40 and more.  But at $16 it's just not worth it.

Likewise how many silver eagles would come out of the woodwork at $32 that were bought in the past year?

So just because there isn't much scrap silver supply in the market it doesn't mean that there isn't any silver waiting to be scrapped.

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scrap

I don't really follow the specifics of the scrap market except to be aware that China is a fairly large importer of our electronic ewaste that has silver contacts and plated components.

Back in the "buy silver crash JP Morgan" days and the bear videos it was often said that a lot of silver ends up in the dump because it is not economical to recover from electronics. However, copper, silver, gold and minor elements are recovered from ewaste.

As long as the ewaste stream exists and becomes more established, that silver is recoverable. I don't know how much of this is separated from sterling scrap in the overall statistics, but it is probably a more consistent source of scrap silver that is less dependent on bullion price compared to people selling grandma's tea set.

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Scrap silver supply versus silver price

From the silver institute;

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Scrap (millions of ounces)

198.6 202.5 206.0 202.9 200.7 199.7 225.5 258.7 252.6 191.8

Silver Price (Average London US$/oz)

6.658 7.312 11.549 13.384 14.989 14.674 20.193 35.119 31.150 23.790

Based on the above data from the silver institute, I don't see any obvious correlation of scrap supply to price. Does anyone have a better explanation for scrap supply versus silver prices? I am guessing scrap is more a function of industrial usage.

HappyNow
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silverwood wrote:From the

silverwood wrote:

From the silver institute;

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Scrap (millions of ounces)

198.6 202.5 206.0 202.9 200.7 199.7 225.5 258.7 252.6 191.8

Silver Price (Average London US$/oz)

6.658 7.312 11.549 13.384 14.989 14.674 20.193 35.119 31.150 23.790

Based on the above data from the silver institute, I don't see any obvious correlation of scrap supply to price. Does anyone have a better explanation for scrap supply versus silver prices? I am guessing scrap is more a function of industrial usage.

Sometimes correlation is easier to see in a graph.  Here is the data in a graph.

Price goes up and scrap supply goes up.  Price goes down and scrap supply goes down.

The explanation has already been given you and it is not a function of industrial usage.

erewenguy it is obvious from your comments that you don't know much about the 'scrap silver' scene.  You may find granny's tea set a humorous example and frankly I did too however granny's bags of pre-1964 coins is serious melt.   The point is that individuals will bring forward increasing amounts of scrap silver when the price is high enough.  It is an elastic supply.

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silverwood
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Producer's Forecasts for the Future Prices of Gold and Silver

This is must watch video!

This video was generated from here...

http://www.pwc.com/ca/en/mining/global-gold-price-survey-results.jhtml

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UK silver stockpile

There is an interesting wrinkle in UK silver stockpiles, though I am missing clear figures on usage/fabrication (in items such as solder, solar panels, etc. which might be produced and exported, but not reported as an export of silver). I am not aware of such large-scale, silver-consuming industries in the UK, but would be happy to learn.

The UK has been amassing a rather large trade deficit in silver since 1998 -- most recent data from November 2014 only shows the numbers through August 2014:

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/september-2014/tsd-time-series-data--trade-in-goods-mrets--september-2014.html

There is a longer piece on the same topic here: Hoarding in the UK (?)

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A Brief History of Silver Production and Application

*click on link below for a slideshow of a brief history of silver production and application*

http://www.usfunds.com/slideshows/a-brief-history-of-silver-production-and-application/#.VHbIQ15BpaF

Solar Shines on Silver Demand

Tuesday November 25, 2014 16:01

Back in the olden days, before the advent of digital cameras, photographers used a curious thing called film. Surely you remember having to feed a roll of the stuff into your analog camera. Then you’d take the roll to your local drug store and wait a week for it to be developed, only to discover that you had the lens cap on during the entirety of Cousin Ted’s birthday party.

What some people don’t know about film is that it’s coated with a thin layer of silver chloride, silver bromide or silver iodide. Not only is silver essential for the production of film but it was also once necessary for the viewing of motion pictures. Movie screens were covered in paint embedded with the reflective white metal, which is how the term “silver screen” came to be.

Since 1999, photography has increasingly gone digital, and as a result, silver demand in the film industry has contracted about 70 percent. But there to pick up the slack in volume is a technology that also requires silver: photovoltaic (PV) installation, otherwise known as solar energy.

For the first time, in fact, silver demand in the fabrication of solar panels is set to outpace photography, if it hasn’t already done so.   

frank_20141125_1.png 

Every solar panel contains between 15 and 20 grams of silver. At today’s prices, that’s about $20 per panel. When silver was hanging out in the mid-$30s range a couple of years ago, it was double that.

Other industrial uses of silver can be found in cell phones, computers, automobiles and water-purification systems. Because the metal also has remarkable antibacterial properties, it’s used in the manufacturing of surgical instruments, stethoscopes and other health care tools. Explore and discover more about the metal’s many industrial uses in our “Brief History of Silver Production and Application” slideshow.

Going Mainstream

Solar energy was once generally considered an overambitious pie-in-the-sky idea, incapable of competing with and prohibitively more expensive than conventional forms of energy. Today, that attitude is changing. Year-over-year, the price of residential PV installation declined 9 percent to settle at $2.73 per watt in the second quarter of this year. In some parts of the world, solar is near parity, watt-for-watt, to the cost of conventional electricity.

According to a new report from Environment America Research & Policy Center:

The United States has the potential to produce more than 100 times as much electricity from solar PV and concentrating solar power (CSP) installations as the nation consumes each year.

Additionally, president and CEO of solar panel-maker SunPower Tom Werner says solar could be a $5 trillion industry sometime within the next 20 years, calling it “one of the greatest ever opportunities in the history of markets.”

This investment opportunity will likely expand in light of the climate agreement that was recently reached between the U.S. and China. Back in April I discussed how China, in an effort to combat its worsening air pollution, is already a global leader in solar energy, accounting for 30 percent of the market.

Commenting on how government policy can strengthen investment in renewable energies, Ken Johnson, vice president of communications for the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), notes: “If governments are smart and forward-looking and send ‘clear, credible and consistent’ signals as called for by the International Energy Agency (IEA)… solar could be the world’s largest source of electricity by 2050.”

These comments might seem hyperbolic, but as you can see in the chart below, installed capacity has been increasing rapidly every year. According to the SEIA, a new PV system was installed every 3.2 minutes during the first half of 2014.

frank_20141125_2.png 

With PV installation on the rise, silver demand is ready for a major surge. About 80 metric tons of the metal are needed to generate one gigawatt, or 1 million kilowatts, of electricity—enough to power a little over 90 typical American homes annually. In 2016, close to a million and a half metric tons of silver are expected to be needed to meet solar demand in the United States alone. 

frank_20141125_3.pngAnother clear indication of solar’s success and longevity is the rate at which employment in the industry is growing. Currently there are approximately 145,000 American men and women drawing a paycheck from solar energy, in positions ranging from physicists to electrical engineers to installers, repairers and technicians. Between 2012 and 2013, there was a growth rate of 20 percent in the number of solar workers, and between 2013 and 2014, the rate is around 16 percent. Nearly half of all solar companies that participated in a recent survey said they expected to add workers. Only 2 percent expected to lay workers off.

What this all means is that solar isn’t just for granola homeowners and small businesses. On the contrary, it has emerged as a viable source of energy that will increasingly play a crucial role in powering residences, businesses and factories. Already many Fortune 500 companies make significant use of the energy—including Walmart, Apple, Ford and IKEA—with many more planning to join them. This helps businesses save money over the long run and improve their valuation.

It’s also good news for silver demand.

Bullish on Bullion

frank_20141125_4.png 

Solar is only part of what’s driving demand right now. Since July, the metal has fallen close to 25 percent, attracting bargain-seeking investors.

“Commodities are depressed right now, but we’re seeing far fewer redemptions in silver ETFs than in gold ETFs,” says Ralph Aldis, portfolio manager of our Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX) and World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX).

Below you can see how silver ETF holdings continued to remain steady as gold ETFs lost assets earlier this year.

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Ralph attributes much of this action to solar energy: “Investors recognize silver’s importance in manufacturing solar cells, and it doesn’t hurt that silver is currently pretty inexpensive relative to gold.”

It’s also oversold, as the chart below shows.

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Last month about $1 billion was pulled out of New York’s SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest gold bullion-backed ETF, while holdings in silver-backed ETFs set a new record in September. Demand in India is booming, and sales of American Eagle silver coins rose last month to a two-year high of 5.8 million ounces, nearly doubling the sales volume from last October.

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A Note on Emerging Europe

As many of you might know, our Emerging Europe Fund (EUROX) began divesting out of Russia as early as December of last year, even before President Vladimir Putin started stirring up trouble in Ukraine, and was completely out by the end of July.

Our fund is all the better because of the decision to pull out. Between international sanctions and low oil prices, Russia’s economy has been wounded. Its central bank announced earlier this month that economic growth will likely stagnate in 2015, and the World Bank cited the ruble’s depreciation as a growing risk of stability.

Meanwhile, Greece, the third-largest weighting in the fund, has officially recovered after six years of recession. Its economy is finally in the black this year, expanding at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the third quarter, its best performance since 2008. Next year the economy is expected to grow 2.9 percent. Greek auto sales are up 21.5 percent year-to-date.

Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors

silverwood
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What is wrong with this picture?

Mining mentality...we lost money this quarter and our all in sustaining cost is $23.68, but the good news is this is falling! Well, so we will ramp up productions and sell more silver/ or it's equivalent at whatever the market price may be in the next quarter and hopefully we may have an all in cost that will let us loose less money. What could go wrong?

Santacruz Silver Reports 3Q Loss, Silver Eq Production Up

Tuesday December 02, 2014 11:25 AM

Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. (TSXV:SCZ) reports a net loss of $1.05 million, or 1 cent per share, during the third quarter of 2014, an improvement from a net loss reported during the second quarter of 2014 totaling $1.57 million, or 2 cents per share. Revenue rose quarter-on-quarter to $3.16 million while silver equivalent production also rose q-o-q to 192,400 ounces, the company says, at all-in sustaining cash costs of $23.68 per silver equivalent ounce – down over $6 q-o-q. "The cash cost per equivalent ounce of silver sold has decreased more than 18% when compared to the second quarter of 2014, and we expect that this figure will decrease even further in subsequent quarters as production keeps ramping up and efficiencies are taking place,” says Arturo Préstamo, president and chief executive officer of Santacruz. “We have just started the commissioning of the third ball mill and expect it to be running at specifications by mid-December, taking Rosario's milling capacity up to 450-500 tons per day. This will allow us to further reduce our costs going forward." Silver equivalent ounces sold rose 26.4% q-o-q to 188,100 ounces, the company says.

silverwood
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Just finished reading Paul Mylchreest's report

I believe Paul is onto something here and he makes some excellent points. The very best point, IMO, was his very last one...

"During the last 20 years, the ratio(gold/silver) has generally traded within the 50/70 range. Having said that, there was only 8.3 times more silver mined than gold in 2013, so some “reversion to the mean” (15-16x) might be justified in the coming years."  Paul Mylchreest

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