Amazing, right as $1000 Ag wild ass hog calls being made... Watching 1090 level Au, important one as Inst's are stacking there now.
I am up and running here. Glad to be aboard and contribute what I can.
DX is approaching resistance @ 8845 & 8917
with 8818 hit today 11/7 - we are close to seeing how the next few months will play out, perhaps into early March 2015.
9245 would be the next level of resistance should we close over the 8917 for 3 consecutive days.
This, of course, would place additional pressure upon the Metals Complex.
Crude Oil is holding above 78, but below 7855 & 7885.
The intra-day swings in Ag are becoming pronounced, another good sign. 80 cent swings have an "entity" caught red-handed. Be nice to see the SX fail the first test of 8917, if not the 92s may well give way in the short term as well.
Difficult to determine just yet, but worth paying attention to for now.
One thing appears certain, something is going to break. Just a hunch, but a false flag appears likely - it could come from any vector.
So let's see how this round plays out.....
More asymmetric chess. How it moves forward will be most interesting to watch, Syria may come back into play as the temptation to "look over here" will provide cover.
we had 88's as a potential short term target for the DX for over six weeks, glad to see it finally conclude. Next up - will downside volume build or will be consolidate once more and go again?
We clearly had multiple accidents in oil and the metals complexes today - Ukraine matters as and when it needs to, but suspect there is much more to this picture than Kiev and it's fruited plains.
All the wild gyrations are adding up to something important... what exactly, is anyone's guess. Perhaps the Anglo-Sphere's colossal mistakes have reached the point of defiant refusal.
Managed to pick up 700 Maples in Cleveland today for $16.15 each. The seller was in need of Cash, having figured the entire mess would have imploded several years ago... Silver rich and cash poor, out over the skis again. After a quick explanation of how Apmex buys ($1 over), shipping and payment, he agreed to $.50 over spot.
It is an easy sell, cash now - or wait... very few want to wait, deal with USPS, Shipping, Insurance and delayed payments.
To date - 3200 ozs of Silver for an average of $16.88, a $6,000 savings.
collect when you sell....
far too often, it is human nature to chase...
cuts both ways.
Q: "Will Precious Metals make me rich?"
Siri - "I have located 9 Casinos in your immediate area"
Q: "Will the collapse look more like 'The Road' or a new beginning?"
Siri - "I don't run with scissors"
and Dollar whipsaws itself quite hard. It appeared to be DX related - Oil pulled interesting volume as well on DX flip.
The intra-day volatility is becoming increasingly worriesome. 6700 contracts drove a stake into short stops trailing what was perceived to be another roll-over Friday, typically reserved for profit taking in properly function markets... yet for several years the low volume affair that is typically Friday - sets up a ramp and protection being added from 2:30 to 3:30 into the close.
Today - sellers swamped early buyers, a very clear pattern of 3 distinct sell programs followed by protection into the close - ending in a large volume spike on close to a .618 MMM sell down on protection or about 10 ticks of slippage into Cash.
The velocity of these moves was important, it is difficult to employ anything less than a 16 tic stop on the ES, it used to be 3 to 6 would be quite efficient, no longer.
It still appears quite possible the DX will visit 92s - coinciding with a low for Crude and potentially Gold, then Silver. This would unfold IF, and this is increasingly looking like a big IF... the ESF can continue to juggle all this with decreasing volatility.
Clearly, it is not going their way... and events kept in the shadows are having a disproportionate effect upon the more immediate attempts at containment.
We may be far closer to an accident than years end, difficult to truly determine, although behavior overall appear to indicate - supthins very broken.
Have a great weekend everyone.
It's all contained, until it's not.
Old quant, meet the new quant...