Bull Trap or Bull Crap?

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Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 11:49am
pailin
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today holding pattern

Yeah I'm as impatient as anybody...let's get this thing going, one way or the other, eh??

Today stinks. Up marginally and holding. Would be nice to see the bottom fall out today, but could as easily happen tomorrow or even early Friday and still be within the range of normal path to result. Is it really as simple as dangling the line a bit longer to draw a few more suckers in?

Or is this all consolidation ahead of the next leg up? Could be, never say never :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 11:53am
brokerk22
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you are short

the metals and you are going to get smoked. IMO.

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 12:04pm brokerk22
Grigeo
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you are short....

The problem was not being short the metals. The problem was the trade. Instead of buying the puts, if he had shorted the miners and put stop-gains in place he would have made 2 - 3%. His goal was 300+ % though. When pailin shorted the metals (at least in the past), it was always without leverage and with stops. He had quite the gig going (long or short), he would wake up in the morning and the cash register had been rung. 1 - 2% on a regular basis accumulates to real money. Putting it all on red and swinging for a kill shot with no stop should not be recommended.

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 12:09pm
brokerk22
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short

I was talking to Pailin not devils.

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 12:18pm brokerk22
Grigeo
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you may not know it, but you were talking

to devils. Pailin does not get smoked. An infinitesimal portion of his wealth may have been placed as a short. Every trade is not a winner, and each trade would have a stop (not necessarily a formal stop).

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 12:35pm Grigeo
pailin
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Grigeo wrote:Pailin does not

Grigeo wrote:

Pailin does not get smoked. An infinitesimal portion of his wealth may have been placed as a short. Every trade is not a winner, and each trade would have a stop (not necessarily a formal stop).

Small correction..."Pailin does not get smoked (anymore!)" Heh heh. I learned quick and with small money. However my last short was this time last year, a sweeeeeeeet ride from 26 down to 18.20 and stopped out at 20. This year the setup wasn't as obvious so I'm sitting it out. If I had been short I would have been stopped out for a small loss at 20.50 or less. Big deal. Long physical only at present, and looking to add on juicy weakness. I wonder, really I do if brokerk22 has any non-theoretical positions :)

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 12:41pm
brokerk22
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positions

Pailin, if you read my last post that would tell you some of my positions. I am long gold proof eagles that I have been buying on Ebay for 5 years + and I also own many miners for 6-7 years + hold. Oh yeah own plenty of silver as well. Also, a couple oil stocks here and there and a few dividend stocks that I will sell at a moments notice. At some point I will sell it all and buy only hard assets. I rarely trade it is a loser's game IMO.

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 1:08pm brokerk22
Weasel Tracker
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Bets

Are we placing bets on the price for Friday?

I'm betting we see prices greater than today's trading range. $25 silver will be here in a matter of weeks. I really don't understand why you would be short silver right now.

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 2:08pm pailin
Grigeo
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sweeeeeeeet ride

Wow, nice for you. I should not have been so stubborn, all the warnings were posted at PTC. And then the warnings were posted at the setup for the big trade. Talk about stubborn.

I have my doubts (to say the least) with regard to the motives of devilsmetal. As you stated, very solid points. Followed up by stuff that reeks of the snake oil salesman - look at the post at June 24, 2014 - 9:01am. And the advice?! "Thats why I said to just total your stack and buy enough puts to cover yourself in case of a 33% loss."

Solid points followed by terrible advice = something is not right. The trade could (obviously) still be a profitable one, if one caught a flash with a stop-gain. But those puts would be a hedge of something like a synthetic long entered into for the last 5 business days. Buying those puts as insurance on a stack?! He is not stupid, so I question the motive.

Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 5:33pm
alivecatbounce
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Great post

Totally agree with your reasoning . Waiting for the low teens to come up for silver to load up the truck and wait for 2016 when the cycle will change .

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 7:45am
devilsmetal
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Do you feel lucky?

Bo Polny (a 'chartist' that called the last $1180 low correctly and predicted we'd be at the high we are at right now) just, released half of his predictions this morning:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bywe0LES4bGiLTZqWk1XYW5vcUVSYUcxSFl0Ymt...

...he thinks TODAY is your HIGH. He does NOT tell you the date of the decline. He DOES tell you it will be by July 1. That means the crash could happen Monday, and I'd lose all my money on Friday, then there would be people who would laugh... then we'd all lose some more of our money on Monday, and be wrong together and buy some more.

I'm still short paper and long physical, if you guys haven't figured that out yet. I also never said $12 silver, never said half of the things some of you think I said, so I urge you to go over what I said again, just so you get what I was saying:

I am not trying to get you to speculate on the market and risk all your money

I am not suggesting you base your own strategy on mine.

I told you to hedge the equivalent of a 1/3 of your in physical stack in OPTION PUTS.... NOT SELLING SHORT. The difference is that the cost of the puts are cheap, but you can lose 100% of your money. Shorting something as explosive as silver in this situation would expose you to UNLIMITED UPSIDE RISK. That is TOTALLY DIFFERENT.

Anyway, I'll admit yesterday was a surprise in some ways at first, but when you see how that paints the charts, you'll see how it will look like it was a REALLY sincere attempt at making a new high that failed.

Yesterday's final price rise - the 'failed attempt' - was not associated with increasing volume, and instead of the volume bars on my phone being green (buyers buying more at an increasing price) they were red (buyers buying less but at an increasing price - that shouldn't be the case, unless there is collusion.)

Also, when you look at the 5yr chart of volume, this is the only rally that has green bars that spike and then fall off SHARPLY. (Indicates less buying demand TO THE POINT OF PULLBACK)

Lastly, look at the same 5 yr chart, and look at the volume at the spike of the rallies. Notice that the rally we are in has MORE volume than the last one, but the price in relative terms didn't go up nearly as much. Think about how much energy is stored in that compression. Now imagine it coming out in 3 hrs from now, straight down, in between 2 expiration days, after they took the time to paint the charts with as much care as they did.

Today is that D-day we were all talking about. They are out of silver. They are going to break the system. This has been planned from the beginning; they are making the final arrangements now. I suggest you should too.

In other words, I was early in my call of the top and Bo is going to be late, but it will happen exactly the same way, I first wrote about it. They just injected some drama. And buy drama, I mean the initial dump of stock that they just bought cheap - that you guys cheered about - is going to panic the market into blowing a hole straight down with so much force it will have clean edges.

SLV is offloading silver at an epic rate. That only means one thing: they won't need so much of it in the near future and someone else does to pay off the final debts.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 8:08am
devilsmetal
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...and also let me add that I

...and also let me add that I think Bo Polny is the best chartist that exists, and the only reason I think he is going to be tricked by just a day, is because the charts are a Rorschach test, and he believes this market is more honest than it is. That said, his bottoms are not going to hold. This bull is dead.

But the next one will be even bigger. Wait for it. And remember what I said about what smart money looks like. It's going to look like the worst decision you've ever made and no one will believe you.

and you are going to show them this post, and they'll reconsider their position. Because when I cash in my chips, I'm taking the winnings in metal.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 9:01am
devilsmetal
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fire on the mountain - run, boys, run....

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 9:01am
Silver Alert
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Let's see if today turns out

Let's see if today turns out to be the big day. Lots of drama so far. An early morning beat down with a vicious snap-back to reclaim the loses.

@Devil's Metal - Just looking to get your thoughts on a few things, not necessarily a formal prediction unless you want to make it so. You said the previous low isn't going to hold, then how far down do you see silver going? Is this going to be short-term (days or a week) shock and awe attack to stampede people out of silver and then a rapid reversal? Or is it a longer (a month, months) campaign of misery to get everyone to give up in despair?

To a cat, "NO" just means "later."
Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 10:47am devilsmetal
Grigeo
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Charlatan alert

devilsmetal - "Look, I have no financial background"....... "In all honesty I'm NOT a trader - I taught myself"

No financial background, but you feel free to push (horrible) financial advice? And continue to do so, even though the trade you pushed on Monday now has about as good a chance of success as a powerball ticket?

devilsmetal - "just to be clear, the price is going to get smashed and stay there for at least a month or so"

But you (supposedly) buy puts that expire in June, not July.

devilsmetal - "I told you to hedge the equivalent of a 1/3 of your in physical stack in OPTION PUTS.... NOT SELLING SHORT. The difference is that the cost of the puts are cheap, but you can lose 100% of your money."

NO. That trade can be referred to as: 1) A (stupid) bet; 2) an ineffective hedge; or 3) the hedge of a fucktard.

An effective hedge of a stack was the one I immediately posted, shorting individual mining stocks. It would have been so effective that the stack is worth more, and the hedge made money with a stop-gain in place.

argentus maximuns - "but this week or next, or any other chosen time is never ever a sure thing." And that is exactly why buying puts is not an effective hedge of a stack, and why buying puts WAY out of the money with 5 days to expiration is the hedge of a fucktard.

devilsmetal - "I was trying to give you some advice that others would pay a fortune for." - Words of a charlatan.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 11:00am
brokerk22
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Tried to tell you

I tried to warn this guy was crazy. Devilsmetals that is.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 11:13am Silver Alert
devilsmetal
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I have no idea.

I have no idea. I assume, massive single HFT laser-beam spike down, dead-cat-Friday-go-away happy-you-aren't-in-gold-or-Gold-or-Silver-Stocks, kind of ending?

But I'm not sure everyone gets me yet - this is the END of the paper market and the birth of the next HOLD IT IN YOUR HAND METAL MARKET. But in a little bit the public will get confused, as the stock market rises. Who knows what the excuse will be, but it will happen... the Bull HAS to die. It does NOT escape to get stronger. It was shot dead at the top. We all just didnt see it happen at the time because of the HFT shell game has many speeds, I assume.

I think the miners all know this - they are LONG term MASSIVE interest in physical metals, and I would guess they are not saying anything because the rise in metals will make them extremely rich, once the market turns. And with wealth comes power. And with power, comes destruction, under the name of 'productivity'..... because the media will keep all the destruction out of the hands of the people. Because mining - no -matter what you say - is going to kill this planet, along with big oil.

Welcome to the Truman show.

Unfortunately that is the way it is, right now. Dont blame either party - I scratched out the names and wrote Ron Paul in. My problem with him is he is SO libertarian, he exposes us to the 'Tragedy of the Commons', which is what will happen when they take the tin foil hats off YOU, and put them squarely on the environmentalists, who they will paint as looneys for protecting our wildest places.... because no one will be there to cover the rape of the Environment. Not even Ron Paul, apparently. And that's a shame.

A person should be allowed to do whatever they want to do to make a living in this world, but they have to do so SUSTAINABLY, and in such a way that it doesn't affect other's rights to the SAME freedoms AND they have to leave the place BETTER THAN HOW THEY FOUND IT. Dr Paul is only concerned with HUMAN life, and he is most concerned with ECONOMICS is because he believes it has become such a problem it will negatively AFFECT humans. But he doesn't care enough about how the environment needs to be sustained so we don't kill ourselves.

Anyway, those are some of my thoughts on the problems we face. If I'm right about this, maybe people will listen to my ideas about possible solutions; so far they have been treated like JP Morgan treats silver on a bad day;)

We can listen to this, while we wait it out. It should be a dramatic end. Or at least they will make it look that way. Nobody is really buying or selling besides them selling back and forth together and they are only doing this for your entertainment, so its about to get interesting...

https://www.youtube.com/embed/vBecM3CQVD8

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 11:21am
alan2102
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Dr Paul

"Dr Paul is only concerned with HUMAN life, and he is most concerned with ECONOMICS is because he believes it has become such a problem it will negatively AFFECT humans. But he doesn't care enough about how the environment needs to be sustained so we don't kill ourselves."

Yes. The good doctor is from another generation, another age, that never had to think about resources or environment (much). And he never questioned some key underpinnings of his libertarianism -- literally the ground underneath his feet. As such, he never made the critical switch to geolibertarianism: https://geolib.pair.com/

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 11:29am
brokerk22
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Devils

Bravo! Well written and concise. Dont understand the trade but you are intelligent no doubt.

Thu, Jun 26, 2014 - 11:32am
brokerk22
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SInclair

I have sometimes wondered about Sinclair's motives. Maybe he plans on being an elite in power when the "turn" comes. However, I have met the man several times and he strikes me as a God fearing gentlemen.

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