Bull Trap or Bull Crap?

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Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 9:56am (Reply to #16)
devilsmetal
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you are looking for the Big

you are looking for the Big Reset over the next few months -- like August -- after which prices will go to multiples of current prices very quickly. Correct?

Yes.

What that suggests is that buying physical metal at pretty much ANY price right now makes a great deal of sense.

Absolutely, if you have NONE.

Why bother waiting until friday to save whatever (few measly) bucks an ounce?

Because its going to spike so violently it will drive down to whatever is needed to unwind the short position. It's very close to the June bottom; they were able to cover half their shorts at that time, but it wasnt enough. So they had to change tactics, to create more downforce.

See, here is the thing about charts, that you really HAVE to understand: A chart NEVER lies. People do. A chart is just a graph of what happened in the past.... it is the 'sum of events', the factual history of what preceded a point in time. Therefore it cannot LIE.

Now here is where people get screwed up: they cant really PREDICT anything that happens in the future, because life has too many variables. But these variables over time seem to stay within a certain range, and over time, you will notice PATTERNS. Some are distinct to human psychology in general, some are particular to whatever is being traded in particular. Your job as an analyst is to figure out how all theses feedback cycles feed off each other.

In other words, when you look at that Kitko chart think to yourself, this is NOT a graph of silver. This is the chart of the MANIPULATION of silver, and then you will stop listening to what the news is feeding you, and the obvious will jump right off the page at you. QE only works if the sheeple believe their money didnt lose any value, when it in fact most definitely did. The ONLY reason no one noticed, is because they manipulate all commodities the same way, so no one notices the true costs of production.

They also must infuse all the miner's management teams, otherwise they would be screaming bloody murder by now instead of cowering in pain.

It's so big, it will make you cry. Environmentally, we are absolutely screwed, just as bad as the metals. Population is going exponential. Everything you have been told is based on when the Earth had only a 20% of the world population on it, and no one was THAT industrialized, in relative terms, to how they have squandered our natural resources. Think of THAT every time you see them flaring our planet's gas wells, because the price is too low, while we melt our ice caps.

You see what I'm saying? Everything is all about growth and is competition based. No one knows how to just have a peaceful and profitable life. That's because power corrupts and corruption breeds more corruption, until you have what we have. And in 2 generations they won't ever remeber what is was like pre-crash. Most likely there is going to be a 3rd WW now, just to explain how America and England lost all of our metals and it ended up in Switzerland and China. With no one paying taxes on it, I'm sure. There is no transparency. There is no accountability. There is no more unbiased news. Everything is indeed going to hell.

...anyway, no more ranting. Plus the price is spiking, so I'll just shut up for now, and we'll revisit this friday afternoon. Weds and Friday are important days for the stock market. The downspike will take much less time than the way up. So it aint over until it's over.... and that might even be NEXT expiration, because that was a possible date too, but my gut says this one, so I took it.

We'll have to see how it plays out. I was thinking theyd show it fail in front of everyone so they can smear the crap out of the 'gold bugs' they just listened to all over the news during july 4th, so never EVER believes that its going back up.

So the reason you know ahead of time, is just in case you get suckered into betting the farm and buying now - at the short term top - then selling after it collapses, because no one was expecting such a loss and they cant afford to lose everything.

The 'Bad Guys' want everyone to hate gold, so they can buy it really cheap. And up to now they have been winning. And the end is indeed near. And the fireworks are supposed to go up are going to be the bombs that destroy the $18 bottom.

This is the moment of JP Morgan's estocada...

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 10:32am
alan2102
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Devilsmetal

Thanks for the reply.

"No one knows how to just have a peaceful and profitable life."

Perhaps no one (or almost no one) in the developed world. Lots of traditional people know, however. And the dirty hippies know. Rainbow tribe. Anarcho-communists. Those types.

Selling it after it collapses?! You'd have to be a first-class newbie fool to do that! I don't think anyone reading these words is at such risk. We know the score. That kind of craven capitulation is more for paper traders than stackers.

And, to the guy on the previous page (can't remember handle) who was suggesting that DM is a troll: no, I don't think so. DM is just saying that he sees a smashdown coming (hey, what else is new, huh?) and if you have any skittishness in you or a weak stomach, you might want to cover your ass with a little short position, assuming you've got a stack of physical, i.e. a big long bet to hedge. That's not bad advice. I'm not personally going to take it, but I see where it is coming from.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 10:33am (Reply to #16)
pailin
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alan2102 wrote: ...even if it

alan2102 wrote:

...even if it did happen, I cannot imagine much if any physical being available at that price. If I were a dealer I would not part with actual metal at that ridiculous price. Or maybe you could get it at "$12/oz" but with a premium of $6/oz.

If you were a dealer, well a good one anyway, you'd be prudently hedged against downside (so little/no loss on inventory) and happy to sell for $12+premium in volume as long as you were able to buy as much as you want for $12 wholesale. Which might indeed be the case, as a lot of "used" metal would puke out of retail at $12, so it would be dealer's choice - buy back from customers at aggressively low prices or buy from wholesale at merely standard "near spot"...a happy predicament to be in :)

As a potential physical buyer, you don't have to play the short side down, but you sure can wait for a much better price. Do you always wait until price goes up 20% before buying things? Or do you coupon and check out the sales flyer every weekend?

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 10:37am
alan2102
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DM

By the way, DM, I think my point stands (original post) about the physical not actually being available for much lower prices, even if paper prices take violent dips. I simply cannot imagine dealers releasing metal for greatly lower prices. Maybe I'm wrong, but I can't see it.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 11:48am
hhesse
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jpm

is jpm's big problem really joe 6 pack? i doubt it but wish i knew.

an unhelpful sovereign would be a big concern! paging putin

or perhaps just generic bankypanky and the long overdue over-hypothecation problem hitting the fan?

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 12:09pm
brokerk22
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@devilsmetals

Being all in short here is probably the stupidest trade I have witnessed in my over 20 year career being a broker IMO. You may be right and your may be wrong. Most would agree that you have a relatively low downside potential on metals and unbelieveable upside potential. The preponderance of fundamental evidence suggests that metals and miners will be the go to asset in this sure to come financial holocaust. And you are friggin all in short. Come on folks think about how stupid this! Dont let the naysayers separate you from your metal. This guy even thinks you (all of us) are crazy for buying physical protection for crying out loud. However, you do have balls of steel for placing this trade. That is what makes this whole thing so interesting and even in a ridiculously rigged market.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 12:10pm
brokerk22
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devilsmetals may be Marshall Swing.

Im thinking.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 12:24pm (Reply to #27)
Grigeo
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"Being all in short here is probably the stupidest trade"

Being all in long on a silver option with an expiration date in 4 to 5 days is probably an even more ill-advised trade. But yes, he made some good points and followed it up with bad advice. All in short (with speculative money) on individual mining stocks (not the options) would have been more prudent. But he is looking for the big kill, and the play (short options with a June 30 expiration date) is not one pailin would make, which is usually a good indication retail should not make that play either. Pailin has made money shorting silver, but not on leverage with time decay to worry about.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 1:05pm
devilsmetal
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(No subject)


Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 1:10pm (Reply to #30)
devilsmetal
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Hate the game, not the player...


Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 1:20pm
devilsmetal
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...so if we dont crash by

...so if we dont crash by Friday, you can laugh. If we do, go out and tell everyone you know the market is rigged. Because this shouldn't be legal.

Then tell them I didn't do it:) I just see the corruption everywhere and I'm playing by the rules. This is hard ball. I make no pretenses about that. I was trying to give you some advice that others would pay a fortune for.

Or lose one. That's why it's the devil's metal. So if you meet me, have some courtesy,
have some sympathy, and some taste...

Good luck.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 1:24pm
devilsmetal
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How to Spot Fake Silver

Here are some tips on what to look for when purchasing silver that will greatly reduce your chances of getting suckered…

---
Know your source.
Know the person or entity from whom you’re buying your silver, because it’s not a bargain if it ends up being fake. The best way to lower your chances of getting fooled is to only deal with knowledgeable, ethical dealers, with good references. If you follow this rule, you have a good chance of not even needing the other tips, below.

Know what the real product looks like before you shop.
The quickest way reveal an imposter is to compare it side by side with another coin, round or bar that is known to be authentic. If you don’t have an anything with which to compare the item in question, then the next best thing is to have access to the Internet, you can find examples of many of the items on the originating mints’ websites.

What’s your gut feeling?
The truth is many experts cannot always explain what exactly is wrong with a fake coin, other than it just doesn’t seem right to them. Granted, if you don’t have much experience handling the product, this won’t help you at first, however, once you’ve been around the block, this is likely the first and last test needed before a decision is made, if you know your source.

Does it feel greasy?
Depending on what metals were used, some counterfeits rust, so to protect the coins in storage counterfeiters may apply a grease or oil to act as an anti-rusting agent, which can be felt upon handling the item.

Does the metal have a high-pitched ring when it is struck?
Silver has a distinctive high pitched and very clear, lasting ring, when compared with the ‘thud’ of other more common metals. You can test for it a few different ways. If it’s a coin or ‘round’, you can rest it on the tip of one of your fingers and gently strike it with another coin, or flick it with a fingernail, and silver flipped up in the air with your thumb is one of the few metals that will ring in the air. Alternatively, bullion bars placed in a plastic bag and lightly hit with a hammer should also produce a ringing sound with some duration. But in all cases, you want to hear a nice ‘ring’, and not a ‘thud’.

Look at the item under at least 10X magnification
If the item in question passes normal visual inspection, a closer look at the edges and overall finish of the item under magnification may turn up flaws not visible with the naked eye. Most sovereign coins also have a reeded edge, because reeded edges are harder to counterfeit. So if you don’t see a reeded edge and you are supposed to, or you see a seam around the edge indicates the coin was made from 2 halves pressed together, or any other metal besides silver sandwiched in between, it is likely not an authentic coin. Many plated forgeries can also be flagged once areas where the coating did not fully bind to the underlying metal are identified, usually in the corners of the tiniest nooks and crannies.

Check the Dimensions (Diameter and Thickness) and Weight in Troy Ounces (31.1 grams)
If the item has the right dimensions and is the right weight, it's most likely silver.
Every bullion coin has a specific weight, diameter and thickness that barely varies from one coin to the next. Unfortunately, unlike gold, cheaper metals (such as Molybdenum) CAN mimic Silver’s weight and mass so closely that only a Specific Density test can tell the difference, but thankfully, a good portion of counterfeits coins can still be flagged using nothing more than a $10 gram scale, assuming the dimensions are correct.Check the Dimensions (Diameter and Thickness) and Weight in Troy Ounces (31.1 grams)

Test for Magnetism
Silver is non-magnetic and is not attracted to magnets (however a faint magnetic force can usually be felt when passing a magnet over the metal) so if you test the metal for magnetism and it sticks to the magnet, the only thing you can be sure of it's NOT pure. Unfortunately, this test only works well for identifying coins with cores made of steel, iron, cobalt, and pure nickel. Other counterfeit coins, which contain non magnetic metals (like lead, zinc, brass, copper, etc.) will not be identified as a fakes using this test.

Glass Scratch test
Silver has a hardness of about 2.7 on the Mohs scale and glass has a hardness of 5.5. Try scratching glass with the silver. If the metal scratches the glass, you know the metal is definitely not pure silver. This test, like the acid test, can damage a coin, even if it doesn’t scratch the glass.

Specific Gravity Test
A specific gravity test can be conducted to confirm that the specific metal density of the metal in question is that of silver, using an specially outfitted electronic scale. As with most hydrostatic devices, you simply weigh the sample in air and then weigh it in water, then plug those two values into the specific gravity equation to confirm the specific gravity of the metal in question is in fact silver, having a specific density of 10.49.

Acid Test
A silver acid test is chemical test involving nitric acid and a black acid testing stone which only tests for the ‘presence’ of silver, and does not test for plating. For that reason, usually a corner or edge of the item being tested is ground down (or a hole is drilled out) to ensure the item is not just plated and the metal being tested is really representative of the whole item.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 1:28pm
brokerk22
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devils

Your wording is concise and intelligent. I give you credit for this. I wish you well on your endevour. I know the market is a joke. I choose not to mess with it in the short-term. The odds favor me laughing by this Friday. It looks like you are only putting $5000 in this trade. That is far from all in. At leaset I hope.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 2:42pm (Reply to #34)
alan2102
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brokerk22 wrote: It looks

brokerk22 wrote:

It looks like you are only putting $5000 in this trade. That is far from all in. At leaset I hope.

By "all in" I think he means all in with his liquid, non-physical assets, which might be 2% of his net worth.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 2:59pm (Reply to #35)
Grigeo
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all in

he defined as the cash he set aside for gambling, not all his liquid assets. At PTC, the term sometimes used was "degenerate gambler", there was no mincing words or pretenses. What he did was not "hedging", it was throwing dice without a stop. It may very well be a profitable trade, and no one is looking to laugh. It is not a trade that pailin would enter into. That is warning enough.

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 3:17pm
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Shorting anything that has

Shorting anything that has already reduced in price by 60%+ with all of your assets of any class is a novice mistake similar to placing it all on a horse with 200:1 odds at the races. It's not a way to win consistently - jumping onto trends already in an advanced stage.

It looks like the painful lessons of those who bought silver at 35-49 will soon be learned by the fresh pockets who enter the bear side after 18 months+ of downtrend. Though any individual trade may win or lose, that does not alter the point that this is a high risk trade.

There is a real possibility of a final sharp down move to shake out a few more on-the-ropes longs making such a trade profitable. However, the rebound from such a slicing downwards move would be of flash crash speed to the upside. So it becomes an intraday timeframe trade for those willing to look at a live screen including Globex and Far East trading hours on the spot market.

I would suggest a look at the speed of the reversal at the 49 high might provide a clue as to how fast this will go when it eventually goes, but this week or next, or any other chosen time is never ever a sure thing.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 5:04pm
pailin
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Whether or not we see $12 any

Whether or not we see $12 any time soon (or ever again?) is one thing, but I hope you folks see the pattern as described is playing out. Silver made it's number early and then a series of lower highs followed by a dump end of day (along with equities too, it should be noted). Does it really matter if that high was made at 10 am or 12 noon? No.

This is classic Tuesday COT painting. And I think so far, so good re: pushing price down into end of month. Even if 18.xx is the end of it... Wouldn't that be enough to fill the bankers' coffers yet again (options) and burn all the chasers? Oh...and make some nice anti-metals headlines for July re: June action (or in-action as it would be)? And so all Masters would be appeased.

The fact remains we haven't even had a sniff of 23 since...? Geez who cares, yeah? So until we can take out a 2014 weekly high I can't get all that excited and neither should anybody else. Really take a look at the weekly view...lower highs going back into...wait, geez, last August? Ha! And the likelihood of that bull-magic happening in the next three business days...well, seasonally not what one would say is a good bet. No more, no less. However...JULY? You need to be IN for if you're thinking of adding longs (of whatever variety!) Cuz August, probably UP, along with most weeks into year end...same as always.

I can barely talk to you paper-guys (whoever you are) about the long side...that's a joke. Play physical long and paper short, or not at all. At least that's what I'm doing and all I can logically suggest under prudent risk tolerance.

To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything. -Edward Abbey
Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 5:36pm
Green Lantern
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Damn good read!  Damn

Damn good read! Damn good!

With downside risk decreasing this deep into the bear market, you got serious chutzpa. Friday will be better than watching the Kentucky Derby. With all the smarts and experience in this room, and you still want to throw caution to the wind? May the Schwartz Be With You!

Tue, Jun 24, 2014 - 10:14pm
HappyNow
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Good work in the first few

Good work in the first few posts devilsmetal. There is a high probability that you are right about a setup.

The timing though.....how are you so sure it is this week? Why not next or the one after that. To me it could be any time in the next 2 weeks and still fit with your thinking although if the price stalls too long the quick-money bulls will start losing interest it could peak one more time in the next 2 weeks and pull even more in.

Wishing you the best on your trade. If the price moves as far as you predict then I will be getting my buy price for a seasonal trade.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Jun 25, 2014 - 10:52am (Reply to #37)
Grigeo
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great post from

argentus maximus. So,

devils metal, do you have access Globex and Far East trading hours? I would think that not many here do, as a brokerage firm might only provide that "privilege" to clients that cast a very heavy line.

with regard to argentus maximus' "real possibility" of a "flash crash speed" event - do you have stop-gains in place?

I enjoyed your post but, to use a PTC term, your trade is "fucktarded". Pointless to wish you good luck. As a general rule, people that make a lot of money with reckless trades continue to make reckless trades until they give back everything they won.

randomness