Yeah - I'm afraid the 'rally' is nothing more than a huge Bull Trap. I know you don't want to hear that. I know you wont believe me. But I'm telling you because there's a few out there that might just heed the warning and go out on a limb to protect themselves from what's going to happen.... and if you are like me, then you are going to take all your proceeds from trading this paper and turn it into physical, when it's at its all time cheapest, on Friday - at a price lower than what you think is even possible right now.
Here are some reasons why this whole rally is going to tank as soon as tomorrow, and why you are once again on the wrong side of the trade...
1.) You believe the price cant go lower than the cost of production. You are wrong. It cant go lower than the cost of production for very long, but it can go spike *much* lower in the short term.
2.) You believe the whole rally was a result of the Bears being wrong and having to cover. You are wrong. They painted the charts to only appear like that.
3.) You think that all time open interest means there are new buyers and interest in the market; this makes you feel safe. You are wrong. There is only one new buyer in the market and this buyer only has one mission in life: trip the sell triggers.
4.) You think they only manipulate the price DOWN. You are wrong. In order to manipulate it down, they HAVE to manipulate it up. In other words, all they do, is wait for a head and shoulders pattern to appear, and JUST BEFORE the price falls off, they buy an enormous spike and start tripping sales higher up. Do NOT confuse this buyer (who buys as the price falls off the right shoulder) and a covered short that would be placed at the point of max pain (at the top of the head).
At the end - tomorrow maybe 30 mins into it(?) - that same buyer will sell everything they bought - at the top - and drive the price back down. As soon as it starts to plunge the move down, trips additional sell orders, and the price smashes down in a waterfall event.
What will make the price go down with more violence than on the way up, is because there wont be anyone there slowing down the decent. On the way the way up, the price was greatly absorbed by the HFT platforms that were selling the rally down, compressing it. They did this so the price wouldnt go too high, and they could use all that energy to blow out the bottom that you think cannot be breached. Again, you are wrong.
5.) You think you are in the green zone. You are not. You are in the YELLOW ZONE and its going to to pink right now, not green.
5.) You think <insert anything> determines the price of silver. It doesn't. In fact, the ONLY reason we are where we are, is because Bear Stearns went broke shorting silver in 2008, and JP Morgan bought them for pennies on the dollar. (Rread THIS link.) Some might argue they even CAUSED the price to rise in order to RUIN Bear Stearns. In any case, JP Morgan needs to unwind it's short position, and until they do it tomorrow, there is NO hope for higher prices.
6.) You think the price is just going to meander its way up to the moon. It's not. They are going to smash the shit out these metals so no one wants anything to do with them by friday, and tell everyone there is no more metal, because the market was broken. That's your 'reset' right there. New Shanghai markets (among others) for physical are almost in place, where if you want to sell silver, you will need to deliver it - no more short selling. They learned.
7.) You think Friday will be a good day, and you are going to avoid a expiration day smashdown. You aren't. Stock Market is teetering on breaking new highs at all costs... and by 'all costs', I mean they are going to make the metals look like anything but a safehaven as the SHTF.
8.) You are relatively smart person but always wrong when it comes to silver. You've been suckered over and over again. Guess what? It is going to happen again. Tomorrow morning 10am EST would be a good guess. In fact, my guess is they will come in low again in the morning, climbing. They will make a half hearted attempt at making a new high, it will fail.... and then it will cascade down from there, in a classic Bull Trap to Waterfall event. A day that will be remembered by stackers in infamy.
9.) All this COST AVERAGING didn't work out as well as you hoped because it never went up. That's because it's crooked and they keep feeding you information, which you keep accepting as true. And while you WILL eventually sell that stack for more money than you paid, most of you could buy 3 times as much if you just waited until Friday. Cost averaging is for when prices go up and down - it does NOT work when they just go down.
...ok, so let's just say I'm right. What can you do about it? Get ready to buy on Friday, if nothing else. And if you want to cover your losses, buy some 'Put' options that will go up as the price goes down...
...but do not buy until AFTER it drops (unless you have NONE, in which case, buy now and later). But this is almost a certain event, in my mind. And here is why:
...in other words, yes, the shorts covering sparked the rally, but there is no interest, no other volume to speak of, if you take out all the dirty money and it's tanking just enough to send the signals to the tech funds that it's time to exit their trade and sell.
Anyway, I'm sure there are some that will disagree, but I think we'll know whaty happened as soon as tomorrow morning and no later than Friday. Get ready.
...when I said, "but do not buy until AFTER it drops" I was referring to physical metal, not buying the options; options need to be purchased BEFORE sentiment changes and the price falls.
You make a very solid case. Which also lines up exactly with what I've been saying in PTC timing-wise. Which worries me because anytime I find more than one person to agree with me...I'm wrong :)
Keep up the good work and let's indeed hope we get the physical buying opportunity, not only seasonally, but of a lifetime on Friday!
I didn't read your article well enough before I posted so I deleted my comment.
Look, I have no financial background and I'm telling you all something that l know is hard to believe - but if you stand back and look, you'll see it. Unfortunately, I'm afraid we don't have much time. Just look at how the volume tapered off in that last chart I posted - do you see how it dropped off and now is almost dead? I didn't post the momentum indicators, like MACD, which would have shown that this latest rally wasn't going to lift the price any more than it did, but you can basically just look at the volume to see that.
Another bad omen is that apparently there are some big expirations in the stock market that are also historically on Friday, which is why they will smash the metals before then, so money stays in the stocks. They did this last year for the same reason on the same date.
And lastly, Harvey Organ just announced SLV lost another 1MOZ+ in yesterday's report. That usually means danger on the horizon in ETFs, especially since it's on the back of another massive outflow. Again, this was all painted just for us. SLV got in a bunch before the last rally was SUPPOSED to happen, but didn't. That was part of the fake out. After the rally didn't materialize , they stated selling it out the back door, most likely to China where there is now no backwardation, after seeing them paying a 7% premium for silver in the Asian exchanges.
And lastly, I hate to say it because I feel for them, but it appears the anti-establishments like silverdoctors and silver shield just came out with their own proprietary pm coins this month in anticipation of a huge buying demand that never really happened the way they thought and now they are probably stuck with them for a while.... So you probably aren't going to hear too much about WARNINGS from all the people that have a vested interest in selling before the bottom falls out.
At least silverdoctors keep posting Bo Polny's predictions, which appear to be in line with mine", in that we were both a little late in our predictions for the rally, but feel the end date of the 28th isn't going to change. Of course Bo sounds as crazy as I do, so I think most people blow him off because he sounds too extreme, but at least he is getting equal air time over there.
The latest video I saw yesterday by Silver Shield(?) was a new push to break JP Morgan by buying physical metal coins during an anticipated smack down before the Friday expiration. But their timing is off too. They were expecting a low, not a high, so their video doesn't make as much sense, but these 2 suicide runs are a good indication that the people supposed to be protecting/informing us, were both off on their predictions to the point that it may put extreme financial strain on them.
Get what I'm saying? The Bears and Bulls have started figuring out the system, so JP had to change things up so both sides timings were off, so they could pull off their final caper and no one but them would benefit and the bankers would keep all the expired option premiums.
...and while I have my foot in my mouth, just to be clear, the price is going to get smashed and stay there for at least a month or so and the reset may happen with the new silver fix in August., when the old game is officially killed, and the new one begins.
And this whole period of time between the smash and the reset will be used to buy physical metal, so when the time comes for an unmanipulated price, the number will go through the roof, because there will simply be no metal left.
I just checked the price and there was a new spike high, so the question is that a real test at a new high, or just another head fake to keep your attention going the other direction?
I guess we'll see....
devilsmetal wrote: ...and the bankers would keep all the expired option premiums.
...and the bankers would keep all the expired option premiums.
That's always been where the good 'n eazy money was for the bankers.
If that crazy spike crashes PRIOR to open, but then climbs back up shortly AFTER open but fails to hit yesterday's previous high, the chart will be complete, and the takedown will be completely masked in a classic chart pattern, exactly where you'd expect it to be.
So if anyone still is on the fence, I'd have my finger on the button (sell stock/buy puts) ready to click if the first rally of the day fails to make a new high.
...and for all you haters out there, I'll let you know I'm 'all in', with no hedge, and no way to back out of the trade. So my money is where my mouth is, and you are free to laugh and point fingers and dance on my grave, if I'm wrong:)
The truth is, I felt so strongly about this that despite the pushback, I thought was worth trying to let you know. Some of you guys can't afford to take anymore big hits. That's why I was saying to buy the puts. A few put contracts would cost you less than a few ounces, in insurance. Remember, options were not created to do what I'm doing. They were created to mitigate risk and add a little pop to your portfolio... not to get rich quick.
That said, if there was ever a time in life where you genuinely have a chance of winning big in the stock market, this could definitely be it. The problem is time is running out. (They plan it that way, over the weekend, and when the COT report will be coming out, after a critical shift.)
A trade for volatility expansion might be wiser, eg a long straddle, seeing as the bull trap can possibly breakout into a bear trap.
Just my risk averse take. I prefer to avoid exposure to this alternate scenario situation until it's done.
I posted in the setup thread about too many visible positions in an area and the way it can change what might have been. You mentioned above that you think JPM will change the system to catch those who think they have figured it out. I agree completely with that. So what do you think that can do to your immediacy of the trade thesis?
If you're "all in", I hope it goes well for you, and in a timely period. But "all in" can be kinda final if variation of the plan must be made on the fly.
You trader types are so arrogant. So devilsmetals is soooo convinced he is right he is short all in no hedge. You may be right you may be wrong who knows. But that is plain STUPID! You must have followed Avi Gilburt hook line and sinker. You just cant give up and that monster smash he has been promising.
It is a good read but for heaven's these markets are not safe to trade. All in on anything is just crazy. Surely, you are kidding. There are more people calling for a smash then a huge rally here. It actually is fairly close in %. Someone is going to be right.
interesting reading. i had not seen the bear sterns piece.
i have trouble to temporarily do the opposite of what i believe makes long term sense.
what's worse than stacker pain? whipsaw pain!
i for one did buy some paper metal last week and will consider giving it back this morning.
thanks for the post.
If you are wrong I hope vaseline prices stay low for you.
So, Devilsmetal, you are looking for the Big Reset over the next few months -- like August -- after which prices will go to multiples of current prices very quickly. Correct? What that suggests is that buying physical metal at pretty much ANY price right now makes a great deal of sense. Why bother waiting until friday to save whatever (few measly) bucks an ounce? OK, maybe you could buy a few more ounces, but how much difference, really, does it make? Unless you are expecting a smash down to, say, $12/ounce, which seems very unlikely, and anyway, even if it did happen, I cannot imagine much if any physical being available at that price. If I were a dealer I would not part with actual metal at that ridiculous price. Or maybe you could get it at "$12/oz" but with a premium of $6/oz.
Look, I know it sounds crazy and arrogant, but that was to get your attention and force you to reconsider your position moving into today, one last time - a wake up slap, so to speak. In all honesty I'm NOT a trader - I taught myself on April 30th, after predicting decline after decline to myself and losing money and refusing to give up hope...
That's because I'm a snot-running-out-my-nose raging silver bull.
But this whole market is rigged. HFT trading. Price Fixing. Multiple markets, with multiple opens and closes and time zones - impossible to see all at one time, unless you are good with 'Patterns & Charts' and a problem solver. But the problem is a little knowledge is a bad thing in this shell game. And sometimes our teachers get fooled, because they were set up, and guys like you believe in them because you want to believe the charts can tell you the truth, but every time the experts say one thing, just the opposite happens. So you hate them. I would too, if I didn't understand patterns in general.
...And yeah, I meant 'all in' as in 'all my money I use for speculation is on puts from 19.50 on down to 17. Sounds crazy I know. Especially after that big spike this morning in low trading hours. But the smartest money is the guy that buys the options that costs $.01. And to do that, you must believe opposite of everyone else. Every time you look at options remember that. Some crazy SOB bought that option for a penny. That's what smart money looks like, just incase you miss this opportunity, and you see another one.
And on Friday, that means you need to be the fiercest Bear in order to kill the Paper Bull. In other words, this is JP Morgan's HFT trading strategists' and 'Flash Boys' moment of glory: the great unwinding of their position.
And at this point in the game, me posting this means nothing, because now you will know the truth, and not all the bullshit the media is feeding you. This issue runs to the core of the problem. And TF and Doc and Ed Steer and all the rest of you will have all the proof you ever needed.
And this WILL go to trial. And they will say the market was indeed rigged. And then they will let JP Morgan alone. Because it WAS NOT JP Morgan behind this. It was their clients. And I have no idea who they might be. I'm sure they will figure it out.
And that will usher in the next physical metal bull run. Which is where metal rises and and the world gets destroyed by the miners, who now will flood with cash and literally kill everything here and abroad to make up for lost time. But even if you want to be greedy and buy the miners at the bottom, that might STILL go bust temporarily, because if this next event is big enough it might crash the entire market, and that needs to start over because of a complete lack of faith too. So after the crash, stay out of paper period(?)
I have no idea, but I'm doing my best to warn you. I was happy to see it go at first too. But it didnt run right. Why was there ANY selling in such an event to the level we saw? Theres no other explanation. TF will put this all together after the COTs come out I'm sure. Maybe he already did. Maybe I'm totally wrong and I'm going to lose all my money, and worse yet cause others to. Thats why I said to just total your stack and buy enough puts to cover yourself in case of a 33% loss.
In other words, 1 put contract is worth 100 shares of SLV, so if price goes down a dollar or 2, and you buy some puts, it might cost you like 100$ to potect $1k-10k, depending on your strike price? I dont know. I honestly don't do math, I just see charts in my mind. And they are usually right.
So what do you do? If I was just holding physical, I'd buy puts to cover any potential loss. If you are holding physical and have NO hedge right now, don't fool yourself - you are just as reckless as me, but in the other direction. And if you have NO physical, just buy some now. As far as I'm concerned the ONLY guy that will be the sucker is the guy that sold at $48, instead of just riding it out for a few years. But again. This whole thing was to shake out the longs, right? Whoever they might be.
But I assure you, the cat is out of the bag. And JP Morgan's HFT platform is holding the bag out the window on the top floor:)
"If you are holding physical and have NO hedge right now, don't fool yourself - you are just as reckless as me, but in the other direction." By devilsmetals Are you a cabal plant placed here to write on this site. Turd you might want to check into this.
I seriously doubt silver is going in any direction but up from here. I think the opportunity for $12/13 silver is gone now.
So now we are reckless morons for owning physical metals. There you have it folks.
Might drop a bar on your foot! That would be reckless. Paper can't break your foot!