Ukrainian Civil War

247 posts / 0 new
Last post
Wed, Jul 30, 2014 - 12:20am
Strongsidejedi
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2519
11801

Securing MH17 site

The debris from the aircraft is spread over a substantial area. But, it's now been many days since the disaster. Use of artillery in the area could decimate the wreckage further. And, what is the point?

We already know what brought the plan down.

The question isn't how the plane came down. The question is who pushed the buttons and who should stand trial for this war crime.

Wed, Jul 30, 2014 - 2:56am
Spartacus Rex
Offline
Joined: Apr 13, 2013
5936
13992

@ Silver Sooner BTW...

Did you catch/watch the video posted on Main St.? What are your thoughts on same? Cheers, S. Rex

Ukraine Crisis: Death and destruction continues in Eastern Ukraine / Жидва убивает людей. [ENG SUB]
Wed, Jul 30, 2014 - 5:46pm
Offline
-
Bentonville, AR
Joined: Mar 26, 2012
625
5871

@Spartacus Rex

Thanks for posting that video and bringing it to my attention. I had seen some of the footage in the documentary, but certainly not all of it.

The video certainly stands on its own without commentary, but since you asked, I'll do my best to articulate the emotional weight and my personal feelings on the subject.

The images in that video pretty much sum up what's happening to the Russian-speaking populace of the Donbass. I find it extremely difficult to go about my normal American life knowing the realities that are presented in that documentary. I work in a VERY big corporation and yet no one asks me about things in Ukraine. From this, I can only conclude that my colleagues 1.) don't know what's happening, 2.) don't care what's happening or 3.) don't WANT to know what's happening. That makes for a very difficult weight to carry when there is no one to talk with (Mrs. SS excluded). But to the best of my knowledge, that video is 100% accurate presentation of what the Ukrainian government (installed and supported by the U.S.A) is doing.

I wonder how many of Turdville watched the whole thing...?

If I may ask, what are YOUR thoughts on the video?

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 2:35am
Spartacus Rex
Offline
Joined: Apr 13, 2013
5936
13992

Silver Sooner

From the get go, the video clearly demonstrates the cowardice of facists. Who else wears masks to hide their identities except criminals and cowards? If their cause was just, why the masks?

Who else but cowards and criminals indiscriminately shells a residential neighborhood putting civilians at risk, rather than go door to door and/or directly challenging the opposition to engage in battle?

This is the price of letting the Central Banksters get away with counterfeit currency, allowing them to simply print up the necessary paper notes to bribe/buy proxy cat paws to do their dirty work, wreak havoc, commit murder and pillage the world at large.

So while everyone else goes to bed and their cognitive dissonance allows them to enjoy a peaceful night of sleep, thinking that such is either not their problem, much less their fault or responsibility, the ultimate JUDGE of humanity and of our Souls, knows different, since for each single fiat note, whether denominated in dollars, euros, pounds, etc., that anyone of us hold in the criminal bankster system allows the criminals to leverage/ponzi up 100 X that single fiat note, and thus instigate Mayhem and Wars to expand their empire and influence.

So pray everyday that the World finally wakes the hell up and converts all of their fiat currency back into gold and silver coins, and make the effort everyday to set the example so that we may all peacefully take back our power and liberty from the Banksters and their crony puppets in our governments, before the day of Final Judgment is upon us.

Cheers, S. Rex

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 3:22am J
ajwgator
Offline
-
Lexington, KY
Joined: Sep 20, 2012
45
69

I have watched 40 minutes of

I have watched 40 minutes of it so far..... Its definitely an eye opener! I will finish it tomorrow and post my thoughts for sure.

Thanks for all the info, updates, and all you provide us Silver Sooner!

Thanks for the link Spartacus Rex....

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 5:25am
Spartacus Rex
Offline
Joined: Apr 13, 2013
5936
13992

First Examination of Malaysian MH-17 Cockpit Photo...

Shows Ukrainian Government Shot that Plane Down

Posted on July 31, 2014 by Eric Zuesse.

Eric Zuesse

On July 30th, a German pilot headlined at anderweltonline, “Shocking Analysis of the ‘Shooting Down’ of Malaysian MH17,” and he provided the first public analysis of the photos that were available immediately after the disaster, of the plane’s cockpit, and of a wing. Google removed the photos soon after they were first available, but pilot Peter Haisenko had fortunately screen-saved them, and now shows them on that site, after having carefully analyzed and made sense of what they show. He says: “The facts speak clear and loud and are beyond the realm of speculation: The cockpit shows traces of shelling! You can see the entry and exit holes.” And they’re unmistakable in the accompanying photo. “This aircraft was not hit by a missile” and it was not hit “in the central portion” of the airplane. “The destruction [that explains the way the entire wreckage was spread out] is limited to the cockpit area,” as he explains it: “A typical SU 25″ (which is the Ukrainian plane, or pair of planes, that accompanied the Malaysian jet into the conflict-area) “is equipped with a double-barreled 30-mm gun, type GSh-302,” carrying “a 250 round magazine of anti-tank incendiary shells and splinter-explosive shells (dum-dum),” which are “designed to penetrate the solid armor of a tank” and which ripped to shreds the cockpit-area on both sides of the plane. “The cockpit of the MH017 has evidently been fired at from both sides: the entry and exit holes are found on the same fragment” of the cockpit, so that there had to have been two SU 25s, and not merely one, which were escorting that plane into the rebel-held area.

This type of “shelling” will “cause massive explosions inside the cockpit,” due to the shocking change of air-pressure, so that “the rear sections broke in mid air at the weaker points of construction most likely under extreme internal air pressure. The images of the widely scattered field of debris and the brutally damaged segment of cockpit fit like hand in glove. … Both the high-resolution photo of the fragment of bullet-riddled cockpit as well as the segment of [bullet-] grazed wing have in the meantime disappeared from Google Images.” Nonetheless, “The shelling of the cockpit of Air Malaysia MH 017, … is definitely not … speculative,” asserts Haisenko.

Haisenko, according to the Anderwelt website, was born in 1952 in Munich, trained at the Lufthansa Flight School, and piloted for 30 years numerous different plane-types. In addition, he has been a respected published investigative journalist and historian, including the favorably reviewed 2010 book, England, the Germans, the Jews and the 20th Century. So, he has experience not just in piloting but also in investigative journalism and historical writing. Unless the photos that he captured on his computer were faked by him (and they look like they’re of that wreckage-field), the United States and Ukrainian Governments have been lying about how the Malaysian airliner was destroyed. If those photos are authentic, then they are the most virginal, undoctored and unhandled evidence, relating to reconstructing what brought this airliner down.

This isn’t necessarily to say that the economic sanctions that the U.S. and EU have placed against Russia are necessarily based on lies, but it is to say that unless Mr. Haisenko has perpetrated a fraud, the U.S. and EU have. Right now, it’s his evidence against their “evidence,” at a time when their “evidence” has been widely challenged as being non-credible. Perhaps Haisenko’s isn’t. But, certainly, the imposition of the anti-Russian sanctions on the basis of the “evidence” that has been offered to justify them is scandalous in itself, as being, at the very least, highly premature, if not outright warmongering.

No one can doubt that George W. Bush and Tony Blair invaded Iraq on the basis of bogus “evidence” like that. Are President Obama and NATO aiming to invade Russia on that same fraudulent basis? Is history repeating itself here, only far more dangerously? And will the world’s press do as rotten a job this time, as they did last? The consequences this time could turn out to be far, far, worse.

One thing is very clear: the public have every reason to distrust both their governments and their press.

https://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/07/first-examination-malaysian-mh-1...

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 5:30am
Spartacus Rex
Offline
Joined: Apr 13, 2013
5936
13992

Shocking Analysis of the ‘Shooting Down’ of Malaysian MH17

JULI 30, 2014

Peter Haisenko in Cockpit of Condor DC 10

By Peter Haisenko Zur deutschen Version bitte hier anklicken

The tragedy of Malaysian MH 017 continues to elude any light of clarity being cast over it. The flight recorders are in England and are evaluated. What can come of it? Maybe more than you would assume. Especially the voice recorder will be interesting when you look at the picture of a cockpit fragment. As an expert in aviation I closely looked at the images of the wreckage that are circulating on the Internet.

First, I was amazed at how few photos can be found from the wreckage with Google. All are in low resolution, except one: The fragment of the cockpit below the window on the pilots side. This image, however, is shocking. In Washington, you can now hear views expresssed of a “potentially tragic error / accident” regarding MH 017. Given this particular cockpit image it does not surprise me at all.

Entry and exit impact holes of projectiles in the cockpit area

Source for all photos: Internet

I recommend to click on the little picture to the right. You can download this photo as a PDF in good resolution. This is necessary, because that will allow you understand what I am describing here. The facts speak clear and loud and are beyond the realm of speculation: The cockpit shows traces of shelling! You can see the entry and exit holes. The edge of a portion of the holes is bent inwards. These are the smaller holes, round and clean, showing the entry points most likeley that of a 30 millimeter caliber projectile. The edge of the other, the larger and slightly frayed exit holes showing shreds of metal pointing produced by the same caliber projectiles. Moreover, it is evident that at these exit holes of the outer layer of the double aluminum reinforced structure are shredded or bent – outwardly! Furthermore, minor cuts can be seen, all bent outward, which indicate that shrapnel had forcefull exited through the outer skin from the inside of the cockpit. The open rivets are are also bent outward.

In sifting through the available images one thing stands out: All wreckage of the sections behind the cockpit are largely intact, except for the fact that only fragments of the aircraft remained . Only the cockpit part shows these peculiar marks of destruction. This leaves the examiner with an important clue. This aircraft was not hit by a missile in the central portion. The destruction is limited to the cockpit area. Now you have to factor in that this part is constructed of specially reinforced material. This is on account of the nose of any aircraft having to withstand the impact of a large bird at high speeds. You can see in the photo, that in this area significantly stronger aluminum alloys were being installed than in the remainder of the outer skin of the fuselage. One remembers the crash of Pan Am over Lockerbie. It was a large segment of the cockpit that due to the special architecture survived the crash in one piece. In the case of flight MH 017 it becomes abundantly clear that there also an explosion took place inside the aircraft.

Tank destroying mix of amunititon

Bullet holes in the outer skin

So what could have happened? Russia recently published radar recordings, that confirm at least one Ukrainian SU 25 in close proximity to MH 017. This corresponds with the statement of the now missing Spanish controller ‘Carlos’ that has seen two Ukrainian fighter aircraft in the immediate vicinity of MH 017. If we now consider the armament of a typical SU 25 we learn this: It is equipped with a double-barreled 30-mm gun, type GSh-302 / AO-17A, equipped with: a 250 round magazine of anti-tank incendiary shells and splinter-explosive shells (dum-dum), arranged in alternating order. The cockpit of the MH 017 has evidently been fired at from both sides: the entry and exit holes are found on the same fragment of it’s cockpit segment!

Now just consider what happens when a series of anti-tank incendiary shells and splinter-explosive shells hit the cockpit. These are after all designed to destroy a modern tank. The anti-tank incendiary shells partially traversed the cockpit and exited on the other side in a slightly deformed shape. (Aviation forensic experts could possibly find them on the ground presumably controlled by the Kiev Ukrainian military; the translator). After all, their impact is designed to penetrate the solid armor of a tank. Also, the splinter-explosive shells will, due to their numerous impacts too cause massive explosions inside the cockpit, since they are designed to do this. Given the rapid firing sequence of the GSh-302 cannon, it will cause a rapid succession of explosions within the cockpit area in a very short time. Remeber each of these is sufficient to destroy a tank.

What “mistake” was actually being committed – and by whom?

Graze on the wing

Because the interior of a commercial aircraft is a hermetically sealed pressurized chamber, the explosions will, in split second, increase the pressure inside the cabin to extreme levels or breaking point. An aircraft is not equipped for this, it will burst like a balloon. This explains a coherent scenario. The largely intact fragments of the rear sections broke in mid air at the weaker points of contstruction most likely under extreme internal air pressure. The images of the widely scattered field of debris and the brutally damaged segment of cockpit fit like hand in glove. Furthermore, a wing segment shows traces of a grazing shot, which in direct extension leads to the cockpit. Interestingly, I found that both the high-resolution photo of the fragment of bullet riddled cockpit as well as the segment of grazed wing have in the meantime disappeared from Google Images. One can find virtually no more pictures of the wreckage, except the well known smoking ruins.

If you listen to the voices from Washington now who speak of a “potentially tragic error / accident”, all that remains is the question of what might have been the nature of this “mistake” perpetrated here. I am not given to hover long in the realm of speculation, but would like to invite others to consider the following : The MH 017 looked similar in it’s tricolor design to that that of the Russian President’s plane. The plane with Presdient Putin on board was at the same time ”near” Malaysia MH 017. In aviation circles “close” would be considered to be anywhere between 150 to 200 miles. Also, in this context we might consider the deposition of Ms. Tymoshenko, who wanted to shoot Presdient Putin with a Kalashnikov.

But that this remains pure speculation. The shelling of the cockpit of air Malaysia MH 017, however, is definitely not.

Nach oben

https://www.anderweltonline.com/wissenschaft-und-technik/luftfahrt-2014/...

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 8:18am
Joseph Warren
Offline
Joined: Jun 9, 2013
2128
18770

Saddens me . . .

to see this. I've been to Ukraine.

The psychopaths play their 'Great Game' of global geo-politics, bring Nazis into power - and innocent people die. Do the neo-cons care? Not at all.

When the dollar collapses and some states try to get out of the D.C. yoke, will we see tanks on the roads of America ?

Thu, Jul 31, 2014 - 8:20am
Joseph Warren
Offline
Joined: Jun 9, 2013
2128
18770

Delete

- delete double post -

sorry about that

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 4:39am
Spartacus Rex
Offline
Joined: Apr 13, 2013
5936
13992

The Basic Reality, and Simple Truth, of Ukraine’s Civil War

Posted on August 1, 2014 by Eric Zuesse.

Eric Zuesse

Obama appoints the people who appoint the people who appoint the people who appoint the people who appoint the people who appoint the people who appoint the people who do this sort of thing rather randomly to the people, the residents, who live in southeastern Ukraine (and Obama’s team call them “terrorists” because it wants to get rid of them because those people elected the Ukrainian President whom Obama overthrew, and Obama doesn’t want to have to do that again):

Video unavailable

And they, in turn, do this, whenever they can, to the people at the very bottom of that chain-of-command (usually conscripts):

https://cassad.net/tv/videos/627/2014/

And the aristocrats (who in Ukraine are called “oligarchs,” and in the U.S. are called “Wall Street” and “the elite” and various other non-descriptive names but are simply America’s aristocracy, our controlling families) go about their business of controlling “our” government and media, and of getting bailed out by us whenever their investments go so badly bust that they can’t pay their debts to each other (like happened in 2008).

How does it feel to be someone else’s meat? Just ask the people today in southeastern Ukraine, those “terrorists.”

However, in America’s “news media,” the source of this problem is said to be Russia’s Vladimir Putin, the leader of the country against which Barack Obama is determined to place nuclear missiles a mere ten-minute flight-path to Moscow (sort of like Khruschev had wanted to do to the United States in Cuba in 1962, but more extreme even than that). Obama headlines “Russia Is Once Again Isolating Itself from the International Community,” and he says, ”These Russian-backed separatists … have continued to shoot down Ukrainian aircraft [which are bombing the hell out of them] in the region. And because of their actions, scores of Ukrainian civilians continue to die needlessly every day [i.e.: they're dying because of their attempts to defend themselves against the Obama team's bombs]. Meanwhile, Russia continues to support the separatists.” Obama doesn’t want Russia to do anything at all to help the ethnic Russians whom Obama is murdering en-masse in southeastern Ukraine. And, so, “our” “news” media think that we are stupid enough to go for that, and so they call the Obama team’s victims “terrorists,” whom the Obama team is killing. That burnt baby and its family are “terrorists,” we are supposed to believe.

And this is the basic reality, and the simple truth, of Ukraine’s civil war.

But, of course, it also has resonance in places such as Gaza, and Honduras, and elsewhere. So, the problem goes quite deep.

———-

https://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/08/basic-reality-simple-truth-ukrai...

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 4:42am
Spartacus Rex
Offline
Joined: Apr 13, 2013
5936
13992

Why Is Washington Risking War With Russia?

Kiev’s siege of the Donbass, supported by the Obama administration, is escalating an already perilous crisis.

Katrina vanden Heuvel and Stephen F. Cohen

July 30, 2014 | This article appeared in the August 18-25, 2014 edition of The Nation.

Secretary of State John Kerry and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin shake hands at the State Department on July 29, 2014 (AP Photo/Cliff Owen).

As The Nation has warned repeatedly, the unthinkable may now be rapidly unfolding in Ukraine: not just the new Cold War already under way but an actual war between US-led NATO and Russia. The epicenter is Ukraine’s eastern territory, known as the Donbass, a large industrial region heavily populated by Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens and closely tied to its giant neighbor by decades of economic, political, cultural and family relations.

The shoot-down of Malaysian jetliner MH17 on July 17 should have compelled the US-backed government in Kiev to declare a prolonged cease-fire in its land and air attacks on nearby cities in order to honor the 298 victims, give international investigators safe access to the crash site, and begin peace talks. Instead, Kiev, with Washington’s backing, immediately intensified its attacks on those residential areas, vowing to “liberate” them from pro-Russian “terrorists,” as it brands resisters in eastern Ukraine, killing more innocent people. In response, Moscow is reportedly preparing to send heavy weapons to the “self-defenders” of the Donbass.

Now, according to a story in The New York Times of July 27, the White House may give Kiev sensitive intelligence information enabling it to pinpoint and destroy such Russian equipment, thereby, the Times article also suggests, risking “escalation with Russia.” To promote this major escalation, the Obama administration is alleging, without firm evidence, that Russia is already “firing artillery from its territory into Ukraine.” Virtually unreported, however, is repeated Ukrainian shelling of Russia’s own territory, which killed a resident on July 13.

In fact, Kiev has been Washington’s military proxy against Russia and its “compatriots” in eastern Ukraine for months. Since the political crisis began, Secretary of State John Kerry, CIA Director John Brennan and Vice President Joseph Biden (twice) have been in Kiev, followed by “senior US defense officials,” American military equipment and financial aid. Still more, a top US Defense Department official informed a Senate committee that the department’s “advisers” are now “embedded” in the Ukrainian defense ministry.

Indeed, Kiev cannot wage this war on its own citizens—a UN spokesperson says nearly 5,000 civilians have been killed or wounded, which may constitute war crimes—without the Obama administration’s political, economic and military support. Having also created hundreds of thousands of fleeing refugees, Ukraine is bankrupt, its industrial infrastructure damaged, and it is in political disarray, using ultranationalist militias and conscripting men up to 60 years of age.

All of this is unfolding in the context of Washington’s misleading narrative, amplified by the mainstream media, that the Ukrainian crisis has been caused entirely by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “aggression.” In reality, his role has been mostly reactive:

In November 2013, the European Union, with White House support, triggered the crisis by rejecting Putin’s offer of an EU-Moscow-US financial plan and confronting Ukraine’s elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, with an unnecessary choice between “partnership” with Europe or with Russia. The proposal was laden with harsh financial conditions as well as “military and security” obligations. Not surprisingly, Yanukovych opted for a considerably more favorable financial offer from Putin. Imposing such a choice on the president of an already profoundly divided country was needlessly provocative.

By February, street protests against Yanukovych’s decision turned so violent that European foreign ministers brokered a compromise agreement tacitly supported by Putin. Yanukovych would form a coalition government; Kiev street militias would disarm; the next presidential election would be moved up to December; and Europe, Washington and Moscow would cooperate to save Ukraine from financial collapse. The agreement was overthrown by ultranationalist street violence within hours. Yanukovych fled, and a new government was formed. The White House quickly endorsed the coup.

If any professional “intelligence” existed in Washington, Putin’s reaction was foreseeable. Decades of NATO expansion to Russia’s border, and a failed 2008 US proposal to “fast-track” Ukraine into NATO, convinced him that the new US-backed Kiev government intended to seize all of Ukraine, including Russia’s historical province of Crimea, the site of its most important naval base. In March, Putin annexed Crimea.

Also predictably, the Kremlin’s reaction to developments in Kiev further aroused the rebellion in southeastern Ukraine already under way against the February coup. Within weeks, Ukraine was in a civil war that threatened to become international.

Since April, Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, have repeatedly called for a cease-fire and negotiations between Kiev and the rebels. Kiev, backed by the Obama administration, has refused to enact any cease-fire long enough to give negotiations a real chance, instead intensifying its war on its fellow citizens as “terrorists.” The White House, according to the Timesarticle, is considering a further escalation, possibly with more dire consequences.

Please support our journalism. Get a digital subscription for just .50!

This, too, is a matter of “intelligence,” if any is being heeded in Washington. For historical, domestic and geopolitical reasons, Putin—or any other imaginable Kremlin leader—is unlikely to permit the Donbass to fall to Kiev, and thereby, as is firmly believed in Moscow, to Washington and NATO. If Putin does give the Donbass defenders heavy weapons, it may be because it is his only alternative to direct Russian military intervention, as Moscow’s diplomatic overtures have been rejected. The latter course could be limited to deploying Russian warplanes to protect eastern Ukraine from Kiev’s land and air forces, but perhaps not. Kremlin hawks, counterparts to Washington’s, are telling Putin to fight today in the Donbass or tomorrow in Crimea. Or as the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center summarizes their position, “It is no longer just a struggle for Ukraine, but a battle for Russia.”

If the hawks on both sides prevail, it might well mean full-scale war. Has there been any other occasion in the modern history of American democracy when such a dire possibility loomed without any public protest at high levels or debate in the establishment media? Nonetheless, the way out is obvious to every informed observer: an immediate cease-fire, which must begin in Kiev, enabling negotiations over Ukraine’s future, the general contours of which are well known to all participants in this fateful crisis.

Read Next: Why are American hawks silent on Kiev’s atrocities?

Katrina vanden Heuvel and Stephen F. Cohen

July 30, 2014 | This article appeared in the August 18-25, 2014 edition of The Nation.

https://www.thenation.com/article/180825/why-washington-risking-war-russia

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 11:13am
SteveW
Offline
-
BC
Canada
Joined: Sep 8, 2011
3047
12329

SU-25 capability

Perhaps the German pilot, Peter Haisenko, could explain how SU-25s, which have a service ceiling of 23,000 feet, could shoot down a 777 at 32,000 feet with their cannons.

https://aviationweek.com/blog/how-su-25-can-shoot-down-faster-higher-fly...

I understand that a Buk missile works as a proximity explosive showering the target with shrapnel that, I suppose, could be mistaken for tracer fire.

No doubt the US intel satellite data (that can resolve car license plates) has all the details, while the rest of us can only conjecture.

“Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” ― Albert Camus
Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 11:40am
Offline
-
Bentonville, AR
Joined: Mar 26, 2012
625
5871

Ukraine Update, 8/1

Well, it's Friday and typically a quiet day at work. So let's dive in and get everyone back up to speed in what's happening in Ukraine.

- A lot happened in the last week, but overall, not much changed

- Over the weekend, UAF launched wide-spread assaults on several locations in the Donbass. The scale of troops/armor involved was truly impressive. At one village, it was reported over 250 tanks were taking part in the assault. I won't list all the village names (as I don't think it's that valuable to this audience), but I will convey the general efforts by the Ukrainian forces. As a gross summary, UAF attempted:

1.) A general push along the northern boundary of the ATO

2.) A concentrated push to break-through to the Donetsk Airport (located on the northern outskirts of the city). Here, UAF has had troops entrapped for a couple of weeks

3.) Also, a heavy, concentrated push on the village of Gorlovka (northeast of Donetsk)

​4.) Assaults into the center of the ATO aimed at cutting the communication/supply artery connecting Lugansk and Donetsk

5.) A bi-directional advance (from the east and from the north) to break-through to the trapped UAF forces in the southern "cauldron"

6.) Perhaps only effects of #5, but one of the pushes looked like UAF was trying to break-through to the MH17 site

These initiatives were quite ambitious and the simultaneous occurrence placed a HUGE strain on NAF defenders. However, the net change in territories/strategic positions held by either side was mostly unchanged. NAF was able to hold and/or repel these assaults. Most certainly, UAF put huge pressure on NAF defenders, however, Ukraine was unable to secure a strategic victory in any of these attempts.

So, that brings the situation today to a point where both sides have expended a tremendous amount of energy. That doesn't mean either is defeated, only that the short-term means to execute a big push have been expended. Think of it like an Olympic sprint...the sprinter has ran their 100m, now needs time to recover before the next heat.

Bottom line, UAF now threatens one, key communication/supply route and may have enough forces in position to break through to the cauldron. NAF has held and inflicted heavy losses--yet, they too are unable to counter with enough force to change the current situation.

- As a small aside to the above summary, I have seen A LOT of pics and vids showing destroyed Ukranian armored vehicles. Yesterday, I saw the video posted below. Please note the large number of civilian vehicles being used by the UAF. Now, this video alone might not mean much (it's just one small sample and it IS Ukraine after all), but this is a data point to remember nonetheless. The question to keep in mind is, "does Ukraine have the resources to see this through to the end?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qLQ2QY6AlI[width=640,height=320]

My informed opinion is that they DON'T. The price that has been paid to this point has been very costly (in terms of manpower and equipment)...and we haven't even seen the full extent of true urban warfare that could be waged to take Donetsk and Lugansk. IF Ukraine is unable to win on its own...then I think you'll see NATO come to help somehow. And that will probably mean another headline-grabber will happen to justify that help.

- On that note, yesterday, Igor Strelkov (Girkin) held an urgent press conference warning that DNR was expecting Ukraine to conduct some type of mass-casualty event and blame it on the militia. More specifically, Ukraine has positioned short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) near the ATO. The current thought is that Ukraine will fire these at water treatment facilities in Donetsk and Lugansk, causing a release of chlorine and ammonia gasses (these facilities store a huge amount of these chemicals). Now, I'm grossly paraphrasing the press conference (and not evaluating the feasibility of such an attack), but the point is that DNR is quite fearful that Ukraine is planning a false-flag terror attack to be blamed on the militia. This week, there has been a lot of chatter about just such an event beyond this press conference.

- The whole SRBM topic seems strange. First, early this week, CNN reported that Ukraine had fired these missiles at the separatist territories. Then, we had the rumor (and still a rumor) that Russia shot down 4 of these missiles fired in the general area of the assault to break-through to the cauldron. Then we had Strelkov's statement. I'm not sure what to make of all of this right now, but it's interesting that these SRBMs are increasingly being talked about. It should be noted that these CAN be fitted with chemical/nuclear warheads but also can be strictly conventional high-explosive. For most of us, you can think of these like SCUDs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-143

- More rumors swirl around the MH17 catastrophe. An OSCE observer on site claims the damage to the cockpit is more indicative of air-to-air gunfire than a missile. You also have Obama stating as fact that the militia is prohibiting access to the site. Hmmm, seems that CNN and other western journalists had no problem accessing the site and filming from there this week. Whatever. Oh, and those 700 Dutch/Australian police should be there in the next day or so.

- This week, there was supposed to be a meeting in Minsk by all pertinent parties for crisis resolution. I have heard NOTHING more about this

- It was also reported that DNR Prime Minister Borodai traveled to Moscow this week. Additionally, one of the military commanders (Bezler) was also reported to be away to conduct "business matters". It consistently seems that when key players from DNR go away for a week or two, that the NAF ends up with new toys and an improved ability to fight shortly thereafter. Just sayin....

- UK journalist Graham Phillips is ok. He was deported and banned from Ukraine for working for RT

- Family is Ok. In the next day or two, sis-in-law and her husband are going to try to go to Kiev. The only safe way out of Donetsk is via train (if the station isn't under attack). They'll interview for a B2 visa next week and if successful, they'll come stay with us for a few months. We'll know early next week if they got the visa.

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 11:45am
Offline
-
Bentonville, AR
Joined: Mar 26, 2012
625
5871

@SteveW

Agreed...from all that has been presented, I don't see how an Su-25 could have used it's cannons to shoot down MH-17. There is a version of the 25 that can fly that high. However, the radar data released by Russia shows that it was still 3km away and too far for the cannons to shoot it down.

I wouldn't assume satellite data has all the answers. I've seen enough surveillance from my time in the Air Force and it's not necessarily real-time footage. I do agree that both the U.S. and R.F. know exactly what happened.

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 12:16pm
question
Offline
-
WA
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
729
3506

Silver Sooner

Thank you so much for your voice; stay well.

Learn to behave
Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 12:26pm J
Strongsidejedi
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2519
11801

Su-25 and the cockpit photo

This Soviet propaganda (since its typically Soviet in behavior, I'm going to use that phrase) regarding a Ukrainian Su-25 shooting down MH-17 is utter nonsense.

AvWeek's analysis includes dialogue between observers that the Su-25 does not have a pressurized cockpit.

To fly at or above 15,000, the cockpit needs pressurization and oxygen supply. Su-25 does NOT have a pressurized cockpit. At 30,000 feet and above there is no way the pilot could survive. This says nothing about the performance of an air-breathing jet engine that has particular performance envelopes.

Sukoi lists it's operational ceiling as 7km (7000 meters is roughly around 21,000 to 22,000 feet).
See: https://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su25k/lth/

Plus, as far as military jets goes, the Su-25 is heavy and slow.

There's no way that this jet could shoot down the MH-17 flight because the missile would have to fly 12,000 feet up and still hit the target.

Now, about the cockpit photo. This discussion about the penetrations bending the metal outwards is consistent with the SAM shrapnel destroying the front of the plane.

People say that the plane was veering north of Donetsk area. If so, the starboard side of the aircraft would be facing south. The plane is on a West to East trajectory NORTH of the war zone.

The SAM would be flying from the ground up to the target with a trajectory that takes it from the south to the north.

The outwards shrapnel penetrations are easily and best explained by the SAM detonating into the airspace slightly below and with the SAM shrapnel shredding the lower nose/fuselage and then blowing out the top of the plane.

The photo shows the port side of the 777 cockpit airframe. Therefore, the SAM shrapnel is going exactly where it should be going. The shrapnel from the SAM is going right through the top port side. If they happen to recover any bits of the lower starboard side of the nose of the plane, it should show the inward bending of the aluminum hull from the shrapnel penetrating the airframe.

On the other hand, those bits are unlikely to be in the same area where the port cockpit frame was located.

The port cockpit frame is likely at the "beginning" of the debris trail. The starboard cockpit frame is likely to be several clicks away. It would likely fall in a different arc and could have remained attached to the lower airframe until the aerodynamic shear forces would have shredded it. My guess is that that starboard cockpit debris is located east from the photographed port side cockpit debris. It could be as much as one to even two kilometers away.

Recall that the 777 would have been flying at 33,000 feet at about 0.86 Mach. To get the ground velocity, you would have to know the air conditions at 33,000 on the day of the incident. But, for the sake of simplicity, let's say the plane is going about 900 km per hour. 900 kmh converts to 250 meters per second.

Therefore, if the lower cockpit remained structurally attached to the lower airframe, the engines would have been powering those pieces for an additional few seconds.

I conclude from this rough analysis that the wreckage is likely strewn over several kilometers (probably about 2-4 miles) of Ukrainian villages. It's likely to be an oval wreckage pattern with the photographed cockpit airframe at the western end of the debris field. They will find the lower cockpit about 1 to 2 km east of the photographed image.

There is really nothing that the Russians can say that will change my mind on this one.

I've been looking at those exact photos for the past week.

Fri, Aug 1, 2014 - 1:38pm
Offline
-
Bentonville, AR
Joined: Mar 26, 2012
625
5871

@strongsidejedi

"There is really nothing that the Russians can say that will change my mind on this one."

You don't like Russians. I get it.

I would like to introduce you to Kristina. She spoke Russian. She lived in Gorlovka. She and her 1 year old baby girl were killed when Ukrainian forces shot GRAD rockets into her city this Sunday.

I can introduce you to some more Russian-speaking people who lived in Donbass if you'd like.

And the last thing I'm saying on MH17 is that it certainly doesn't benefit the separatists nor the Russian Federation to intentionally shoot down a civilian jetliner over the conflict zone. Period.

Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 3:00am
Strongsidejedi
Offline
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2519
11801

@Silver sooner - Very sorry to hear of her death

@Silver Sooner - very sorry to hear of the deaths of Kristina and others in Donbass.

You are and have greatly misinterpreted by statement.

My statement was titled "Su-25 and Cockpit photo".

The first line of my statement clearly used the term "Soviet propaganda".

You are greatly misdirecting my analysis as being "anti-Russian". I clearly used the term "Soviet" on purpose.

I have no quarrel with Russians as a whole. And, I feel very sad that they are dealing with such an onerous and dictatorial regime as Mr. Putin's. Moreover, the Russian people may need to review the military occupation of the Russian predominate areas of Ukraine, including Crimea. NATO and the US are not in those areas.

The missile clearly was launched as a SAM and was clearly launched from Eastern Ukraine or Russian territory. There is no other physical explanation.

This is the reason that I was saying that the Russian government can not change my interpretation. The photos say it all.

I regret your misinterpretation of my use of the word "Russian" as applying to the Russian people. It was directed at the Soviet-like Russian government propaganda and actions which have clear ties to KGB operations during the days of the USSR.

Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 9:21am
murphy
Offline
-
On the Border
Joined: Jun 14, 2011
2314
18373

SS

Thanks for all the updates and analysis. I also agree with you that it benefits neither of the two factions. I'm no genius but it seems the military action only makes it easier in getting NATO forces on the ground in the zone. The MIC is not satisfied with selling arms to just the Mid East, Africa, Japan, etc, etc.

Check out minutes 2 thru 8 to see how the US is spreading peace and democracy with arms sales.

https://thedailyshow.cc.com/full-episodes/fansuc/july-29--2014---sara-firth

As an aside, I just picked up The Downing Of TWA Flight 800. See how they manipulated the facts, the story and the media in order to prove mechanical failure.

History repeating again? MH 17?

NOT THEORY—FACT!
A MISSLE SHOT DOWN FLIGHT 800!

On July 17, 1996, minutes after take-off, TWA Flight 800 was blown out of the sky, killing all 230 people on board.

What happened?

It took federal investigators nearly a year and millions of tax dollars to point to a fuel tank explosion. But the investigation was riddled with questionable procedures. Was the government hiding a huge military embarrassment? Was the plane shot down by a missile?

The Indisputable Evidence. . .

Reddish residue from missile fuel on passenger seats
Clean entry and exit hole in forward cabin
34 certified eyewitnesses to airborne projectile not allowed to testify
FAA radar tapes or projectile in path with Flight 800
Government documents confirm Naval testing in area that night
And more!

Who launched the missile? How much did the government know and when? Was it simple bureaucratic incompetence or the most massive cover-up in U.S. history? Ex-cop turned acclaimed investigative reporter Jim Sanders exposed the shocking truth in 1997. Despite unremitting threats to his life, he has recovered even more evidence the FBI tried to suppress about the true history of TWA Flight 800.

https://www.amazon.com/Downing-TWA-Flight-800-ebook/dp/B00E0OCMMG/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1406985340&sr=1-1&keywords=the+downing+of+twa+flight+800

Sat, Aug 2, 2014 - 9:59am
ivars
Offline
-
Riga
Latvia
Joined: Sep 26, 2011
3984
25157

http://www.thedailybeast.com/

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
randomness