Gold and all metals will love "value" over time as technology makes all manufacturing more efficient, with Nanotechnology being one of the prime drivers reducing the need for new mined material. One example of this is Nanotechnology batteries reducing the need for Platinum by 75%.
Gold will only be industrial in the future as the world enters into a system of global scientific governance and national currencies are eliminated from the equation along with the ancient and primitive concept of "the nation" and government. Space travel will produce demand for Golds properties, but not as "money"
A new and fairer society will emerge, a society dominated by those of greater intellect and ingenuity.
The thread is only being started upon request of the permabull "Goldbugs" that cant accept they got it wrong and continue to throw good money after bad and push out those that offer different views. All those wishing to break ranks may post here so not to upset the clan and allow them their money losing ideas.
Gold is a relic of primitive human history.
and look how much the DAX looks the same. IT MUST BE A BUBBLE!!
recommended reading for TA guys who are bullish on gold and say DAX and SP500 have bubble patterns.
marked the date "the setup for the big trade" was started. note how the positioning is identical to the "bull trap" annotation on above image. hilarious !
according to the thread this was the time to begin the buying process.
all the tech wizards on setup thread (not) think it looks like a bubble and is about to crash
ten years of consolidation and a breakout. very bearish yes. not like golds parabolic rise with no real pull back. that bullish to da moon
and thats all from me. I was called "a disease" on that bullish thread and that was enough for me to want to leave for good. They were desperate for this thread so i did it for them they can now look at it and then feel angry and stupid. they will ahte it as it makes them look stupid.
they will continue with same failed arguments for gold to rise untill they have no money left.
good luck and good riddance.
Should we buy for the PM rally, or sell for a further breakdown to lower levels?
Hold existing shorts, or existing longs? I am long gold and silver in medium and long term, no short term committment.
Please advise what would you do now?
That is tongue in cheek of course! I don't actually expect you to give financial advise here. But the comment about the left hand side of the chart is hindsight. The bear market you describe is already there and can be easily seen. Looking at the right hand side of the chart is where profit or loss can be created, and represents the real test. What next? How far do you think it will go?
PS Thanks for opening a contra prevailing view thread. TFMR will be the better for it, though you have chosen "a hot seat" in this website. Your counter arguments can help balance bias we carry.
Geoff - as I said, I'm not certain that what you say is going to happen is wrong at all (this will be very bad news for my savings).
Not for the reasons you say though. I don't know if your theory is sufficiently well thought out. I asked you a question here and you seemed to agree
that the TA you relied on (new high after consolidation in a period of "growth") was not itself enough, but you quoted this TA again above. In full you said:
"I agree with your first few points but do not feel that the current period in history is comparable to any other and i feel that is where most go wrong. they constantly use old models and old philosophies for a new world and new market place."
Well I don't think this period is comparable to any other either, both in the way that i think you mean (good - technology) and also in that there has never been civilization wide soveriegn debt anywhere remotely near this level (bad - and it is not the debt itself that is the problem, but it is a marker for the massive multi-decadal capital misallocations and the explosion in financial instruments and the associated daisy chain of debts).
So might you expand on what the "new world and new market place" will mean and why it will necessarily override the problem trillions and trillions of unpayable debt and liabilities and why this means I should sell my gold now? I believe this may be the short version
"Gold will only be industrial in the future as the world enters into a system of global scientific governance and national currencies are eliminated from the equation along with the ancient and primitive concept of "the nation" and government. Space travel will produce demand for Golds properties, but not as "money". A new and fairer society will emerge, a society dominated by those of greater intellect and ingenuity."
But this is pretty general. Could you convince me with specifics why I should sell my gold NOW? When for example is the nation state and government going to disappear - are you sure that this is an event that is relevant to the timescale of a an investor holding gold right now?
@AM you are too damn nice! you make it very difficult for me to engage in trollish activities and attack peoples ignorance. You are a fine mediator.
I would not buy gold here. and if i owned a substantial amount of gold i would sell it and hold cash. cash is the contrarian trade. everyone hates cash. whats the point of watching gold go further down when you could sell it buy it back later. gold is going nowhere fast. why would it?
but as i said in my first post i am not a trade i dont trade and have never risked my money in such things. i make the odd investment mainly in international real estate
Im Not trying to be "in the hot seat" as AM put it. I dont spend much time on blogs and i have found myself here more than i would like so avoiding all discussion after i have answered your most immediate question. i will not be posting on a regular basis as i am not interested in gold. i originally came here for troll sport and got unintentionally embroiled in things.
its Christmas but at some point i will answer you. maybe in a PM
I like what AM said and completely agree.
I also like that Geoff said....... sell your gold so you can buy it back at lower prices.
so my question to Geoff (thanks for calling yourself a troll, saves a few folks the trouble)
What upcoming rally price would you recommend selling the gold? Surely you dont mean to sell here at 1200,expecting an imminent plunge now to 1100 ? do you?
I might hazard a forecast,as I have, for a gold rally into the short attack kill zone between 1280 and 1340, tighter channel might be 1300-1325 area. and I actually do plan to sell some miners and some PHYS and/or PSLV (might be better to sell silver) at that correlation. but not my coins. ...... so I can buy some more coins at 11oo-1140, and all the way down to 960. if need be.
Its not trollish to ride the waves that are visible now to even a caveman. The cartel shows No sign of ending the manipulation game thats been going on for at least 2 years visible. an intermediate pause here at the round number seems likely, maybe a rally allowed to 1300, then the next wave down.
But any good forecast ought to show specific price target zones. I'm seeing top zone 1300-1325 as very generous, and next bottom zone at 1150 area, then 1260 and 1160, then 1240 and 1120, and tricky down until 2014 ends at 1060
whats that phrase you said..... bugs who want to ......oh yeah, Break ranks, thats it. I guess I'm breaking ranks. Ive been breaking ranks since watching the manipulated shattering of reality that happened in April.
not sure why you'd want to call it breaking ranks. AM calls it 'watching for the set up of the big trade'
its all about the same game
My study is making me think the timing needs a big slowing down to stretch out over much longer periods, not weeks, not months, maybe 2 years ongoing. from here. Right now, folks have watched in shock at what 2013 collapse has done. and they are desperately hoping 2014 will be a big turn around year. I feel it will Not be. It will be a continued downward slide along the same channel , wallowing along the bottom zone, all next year.
and the next top zone at 1325 could be the high of 2014.
Except...... there is one semi meaningful pattern that appears now possible , which is the formation of an intermediate " W " bottom, which would forecast gold rallying to a higher target, right? maybe to the 1400 area, instead of being stifled at 1300-1325.
My very general thoughts about GeoffByra's very general views would be summed up as follows:
What you describe sounds great. A new world, a new race, a new era. No need for distrust. No need for personal security or financial insurance. No need to guard oneself against others that used to be out to exploit, rob, or kill you. I look forward to that world. But it requires one supremely critical change that has not occurred yet, a change in human nature. Only our circumstances, our gadgets and our achievements have changed. Human nature does indeed need to change or we will ultimately destroy ourselves. But I will not put money on it happening in our lifetime.
It appears that your entire argument rests on your assumption that it has changed. I suggest that you observe your surroundings.
this time it's going to be different? great news!
"A new and fairer society will emerge, a society dominated by those of greater intellect and ingenuity."
Has human nature has changed with benevolent leaders no lies, greed, or theft?
i can't wait to throw my worthless PM's in the river. of course i will have to fish them out of the lake.
It is the BILL of RIGHTS not the BILL of NEEDS
Just curious as to what your reasoning (is it technical or something else) as to why you believe next year or maybe forever that gold and silver will do nothing but continue lower for most all of 2014. Do you think the bull market is over in metals and commodities? If you think this than why wouldnt you just do something else with more possibility for trade than a busted and manipulated metals market? I mean i really have no clue myself either. The markets are so totally busted IMHO it is a total joke. Just curious if you have a reason or may you are saying this because down has been the direction and it is just going to do this because why would it change.
It looks like you have run out of steam before you even got started. Well at least your few posts here will be here for the record. For the sake of accuracy, I'd point out the following.
1.) This forum was setup because you were asked to leave the other forum after being warned to stop your behavior. If you had read the full forum, you'd know that the individuals weren't permabulls. If you can't put forth the truth in small matters, how can anybody trust your macro analysis which only amounts to a list of postulates supported by emotion?
2.) typewriters, abacuses, 8 track tapes, cowrie shells as money are all relics of the past. None of them are being acquired by central banks. Nobody is spending billions of dollars to dig them out of the ground or requesting that their cowrie shells be repatriated. Warren Buffett is not commenting on them, good or bad, regularly in the mainstream press. For something that is a relic, there sure is alot of smart, professionals focusing on it every day.
3.) a society dominated by those of greater intellect etc.... You'll be part of the minority I assume? Hey, didn't you ask Ivars not to predict the future because he didn't know?
4) how is that due diligence going on that 250 tons of mineable gold in Fujian province that you used as a factual piece of evidence to support your case?
5) Could you clearify for the group the difference between a secular bear market and a cyclical bear market within a bull market? Some examples would be ideal.
6) Thank you for the jpg of the various technical formations. I will blow it up and post it on the wall next to my poster of the kama sutra positions.
My post isn't anti-bears. It's pro analysis that comes with organized thinking, a model that you can demonstrate to everybody and update regularly and one devoid of emotions that say, this market sucks because I've lost money. Manipulation in markets is rampant indeed but still not one person to demonstrate the gold cycle has been broken. Can you demonstrate?
BTW, you and I have something in common. You don't trade but have alot to say on the issue. Similar to my role in politics. I don't hold political office but I regularly go to the corner coffee shop and solve the worlds problems with the guys after a couple cups of coffee and a stack of pancakes. Generally, it takes an hour to an hour and 1/2. Actually, I drink tea. Sorry for the inaccuracy.
well, my outlook is still baking in the oven,like everybodys, but what little vision I can muster with technical analysis,plus what good insight I gain from analysts like Jim Willie,Faber,and a few others, who have been correct in the past, seems to be adding up to a few thoughts in anticipation.
One is that there is some kind of manipulation happening in metals (and miners) to keep them suppressed down, while manipulation of stock indexes to stay up. Seems logical to believe that premise at this point. Willie describes greater detail about the geopolitics behind the game, and it seems rational to consider that he has a fair understanding. although, he also says that when the Global currency Reset happens, gold price will double overnight, something like that. That seems a bit hard to believe. and if that does happen, I might wonder if the govt. will enact a new tax,that taxes any sales of gold and silver to the tune of something like 75 % so that it becomes like an indirect confiscation of wealth for those who own gold and silver. but only time will tell I suppose. When was the last time ordinary citizens were allowed to become wealthy without penalty. ever?
The technical chart picture of precious metals was shattered in the April smash, followed by June smash, and remains broken. People can start to say now that the bull market is over and is now a bear market. I dont believe that necessarily. because the chart was broken not by fundamentals but by manipulation,so say experts.
If the chart has become an artificial construct, for some time, then this same chart remains on the easel, being painted by the cartel algos, ongoing still. and If thats the case, then where are the color by number lines leading to.
down seems a better guess than up. and wave structures need to remain normal looking, and the next wave up will hit resistance short attack zone around (gold) 1300-1340 area, but could start as early as 1270.
Theres nothing fresh I'm saying that cant be seen on the chart by looking at the numbers.
This past fall, the gold chart had a chance to turn into a bullish pattern IF 1250 area held strong as support, or maybe even if 1225 area held, Followed in the past month by a strong upwaveback into the 1360 zone and holding again above 1300 now....instead of wallowing here at 1200.
but this return to 1180 again,is at best a double bottom, which will give bullish dreamers a ray of hope to pray for, the next small rally to become real, and turn the chart bullish once again....... If this chart was going to become bullish now, we need to see a strong upwave to retest the 1300- 1340 area, and THEN HOLD SUPPORT at or above 1260-1270 area, All over again......and THEN make a higher high get closer to 1400, and on and on... a bullish pattern.
But for the last 2 years,until April, the chart was holding a bullish pattern as long as price held above 1460 area, even 1420 area. but what happened instead , that take down to 1180 changed the whole picture almost overnight. What was bullish turned Bearish.whether manipulated or not, it has become a bearish pattern, and IF this now bearish pattern is to continue , price will need to get hammered at the next short attack zone....1285-1345, anywhere in between, and taken back down to retest the current bottom zone and eventually make lower lows and lower highs, as it has been doing for the last year.
It wasnt until the April smash down, that the chart turned bearish. After that, the technical outlook has to be seen now as a bearish wave structure , anticipating the next short attack zone to be the next important target to watch for . The chart shows the zone clearly. 1285-1345. and the 50% fib area is around 1310.
The bearish pattern wont change now until something important changes it . Thats probably going to involve the powers that be in the global chess game. not retail investors, or even hedge funds.
I do plan on reinvesting in something else as soon as I can recoup some cash in the next rallies. Thats what Ive been doing this year. Biotech stocks are interesting these days.
Glenn Neely made that 500 forecast:
He's no stranger to long term far out calls. Here is his Dow to 100,000 call made in 1988:
It's all Elliott Wave, sorry for those who don't count them! But at least they present some form or structure to go with the price, and it makes it easier to vizualize.
I would mention that there are bullish EW counts too, (Enough, Eclectic, and myself all keep a track of several variants and we are gold bulls!) but Robert Prechter et al of EWI and Neely of Neowave seem to be in the more bearish camp. I brought the Neely links because he seems to have the most bearish of all views and this is supposed to be the uber bear thread!
I'll discuss alternative and different EW counts in a blog and maybe the other EWers will chip in.
I know alot of you have sworn off KWN. Justifiably so. But I follow Rick no matter which venue he decides to talk. After all the guy holds my money, and soon my old man's cash. Better than keeping it banks or retail investment firms.
He's talking about the fundamentals of the mining sector that have not hit yet and that while there could be some more downward action in the resource sector, he is saying the dynamics of the bear market is over. Big money circling the sector ready to dive in.
For your consideration.
Still Bullish Gold here? Still long?
Still bearish Stocks? about to crash? Shorted just before FED?
Hows Kyle bass with his japan bond market armageddon doing?
When is the next war going to start? please tell.
The vonderful volk at the Federal Reserve have shown themselves to be competent in their planning. The taper has begun, something the blogs said would never happen. Something they said would crash the stock market, and the US bond market..
Yet the market receives the news well, interest rates have fallen slightly, the stock markets moves to higher ground, the recovery continues with SnP500 likely to move beyond 3000 in a few years. And our second currency, the US dollar, strenghtens nicely as the credibility at our FED strenghtens, proved correct once more, our Ben Bernanke.