Just a guess. The option expiration today was interesting. A lot of put options (~20,000) closed in the money today over $1400. So there are going to be people with cash to buy low here and drive the price higher if they want to. The put option gives them the right to sell a future for a higher price than the current market. If they have it, they can sell high and buy a cheaper one now. If the option holders don't already have a contract, they will need to buy one in the next three days. Should provide some bullish action because there were hardly any calls in the money below $1340.
Many times when there are a lot of call options in the money at OPEX, the price will fall into the beginning of the month due to selling by the option holders. Usually they don't want to hold the contracts and so they dump them. Put holders will have to buy first and then will be selling to a buyer that is stuck with the contract at a higher price than the market. Those buyers may decide to hold the contracts rather than sell now at a loss.
If gold did bottom at 1186 and the recent top in August was the end of a five wave move up then maybe we finished wave two down this week. If so then the next leg could be about 1.68 * 250 or roughly 420 points from 1280. Course that is just rough guessing and then the time frame should be around 3.3 months to make the move. I am assuming it follows the red channel.
...still think we'll see 1700 ??
i'm gonna say we will see 1237 gold around december 16-20 and that will be the low until next june.
1343 in a few weeks
1300-1310 triangle terminal/ breakpoint .... then.... hard down to
1237 area dec 18
well waddya know, I said last nite today would plunge to 1280 . and it did.
that makes me feel nice.
its ok to toot ones horn once in a while isnt it ?
The wave structure didnt flow the way I imagined. Price didnt rally to 1340 area. but it did fall to the 1237 target. 1220 area. the low zone. Now the slam down channel target zone is still 1340-1300 area but targets below 1220 are visible. 2013 will end with gold below 1300 is still a fair forecast. Next year, 1200-1180 and lower looks possible. I dont feel so interested in buying any right now. Maybe 1150 next year will be ok.
I first bought a few years ago after gold fell from 1900 to 1660 area. because gold might take off again to 2000.
Then I bought at 1525 because gold might never be this low again. then I bought some at 1400 because gold was crazy low. Then I watched it fall again and wallow all summer and fall at 1250 , and now flirting with 1200,....I think I'll wait some more, and see what 2014 looks like.
Yes, the difference in a coin at 1260 versus 1200 is only 60 bucks. or 600 if you buy 10 coins. not much difference in the long run. But its a process of accumulation that started (for me) at 1600 gold, now gold is 1200.
and the price drop process is still ongoing. Its hard to forecast 1000 gold. but a year ago folks would laugh at anyone making such a forecast. Would you laugh still ?
I'll sell you some of my coins for 1600 if you want them?
2013 was a bad year for gold and silver and miners.
I think 2014 will not be much better. This Global reset process is taking a long time to play out.
What soaring rally happened 3 years ago in 2010, maybe that was just a test of sorts. a feeler. Followed by a control operation. that seems still ongoing. Selling rallies is more important now than buying bottoms. Maybe.
thats what I said in my last post above.
no winter rally has been provided gold investors.
thats for sure now.
the price action speaks for itself.
Had there been a rally over the last 4-6 weeks, we might have seen a top zone around 1300-1340
Maybe some day in 2014 that will still be the target top,
but for now its looking like the cartel wants to see 2013 end, not only with gold below 1300, but even below the '12' handle.
Pretty impressive price control if you ask me.
What would your guess be for the summer 2014 bottom zone now?
1000 ? 1050 ? 1100 ?
whats half of 1920............... 960
we've seen alot of 50% haircuts in miners charts from tops to bottoms in many wave structures. just look at any chart. theres alot of them.
Silver from 49 to 24.50 was easy. Gold from 1920 to 960 has been a bit harder ,requiring more patience.
Its just a guess, playing with numbers.
I thought this little forum, that somebody else initiated a while back,... guessing what gold price would be at year end, would be a popular thing. at least kind of fun to place a bet. Many times Ive seen folks chime in to these guessing contests.
But not this time. Folks did not want to place their guesses on year end spot gold.
Ive been the only poster here. Seems a bit odd to me. ( and look. 2,500 views, but only one person has posted anything!)
Maybe there is alot of great interaction in Turds pay section. Not much but a few crumbs in the free section.
Oh well....... happy holiday to all.
Imagine, gold at 960. hard to imagine.
Hi all, I think that gold resistance at $1350 will be taken out very soon and gold should reach $1500 very soon.
2 months ago, you made that guess. when gold was hanging at 1350,I remember that time, and it was pushed higher for a few days because of the Ukraine crisis developing.
ok, so it then began to pullback in a correction since then, that is ongoing still. and summer is coming.
1300 gold is a key balance point, bracketed by the 200 and 50 ma, its a critical time for gold to make its next move in some direction.
I dont come here to the forum much anymore. but wanted to read Turd's open letter to Switzerland.....well done Turd.
I see spot gold , after peaking at 1392 ,has been correcting in what should be some kind of 3-wave, ABC elliott wave structure....maybe wave B is ongoing now, and I expect a lower high to peak around 1320-1350 area, followed by the wave C down to test 1200-1240 area. That would complete a Bullish pullback ,but a bearish wave structure would mean 1200-1180 area gets hit, followed by a small bounce that fails around 1240-1265 area , and then lower lows thru summer below 1180.
I have no idea what the cartel plans to do with spot gold at this time. My guess is 1220 target area will be hit in the next break down from this current 1300-1320 area.
100-120 point moves have become the standard move in recent patterns. 1320 to 1200 seems a fair guess.
I still dont come here much. today I came to read/listen to the Jackass. I noticed this old forum here that my last post occurred on, and curious that I was the only commentor to play the gold guessing game all last year here. So far I have been very accurate in my outlook, including the June pullback to retest . 1240. good call,T. (wait....thats Me....)
Maybe I'll take over this little forum spot here, since theres still hardly anybody coming here.
I give you credit ,John 45, for having the guts to make a forecast. so far you have been a little bit very wrong.but I welcome your commentaries and explanations if you want to liven up this forum.
I think forecasting gold price has been fairly easy up to now, over the last year, because the Cartel manipulation has been so consistent, its as much to do with their consistent manipulation, as they paint the chart with computer algorithm precision, that the basic Technical analysis Ive been doing has so far been pretty accurate. That could change at any time I suppose, if the Cartel wizards decide to press some different buttons behind the curtain.
In any case, I am still thinking we could see another drop down in gold thru the fall into winter that might retest 1200 , might stop at 1220/1240-1255 area, but right now is trickier time to make a guess than it was in the spring.
we have to watch and see IF the last low, at 1240 will Hold or not. the elliott wave pattern looks like it wants another downwave.
as the triangle terminal approaches, we could see the next 100 point move....either up to 1400, or down to 1200.
Good luck to you in your investing and analytic work.
well, two weeks later, and gold did NOT hold support at 1240. and now the lower target zone 1225 area is hit.
I think alot of investors and traders will buy bargains at these prices 1225 gold and 18.50 silver
some select miners might be worth considering. at bottom levels
I think you've got a heart of gold that is priceless!