The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 4:34am
Green Lantern
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Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 9:29am
UncleFester
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New Amsterdam

Recently read a biography on John Adams. He was sent oversees along with Jefferson to secure a loan from France during the revolutionary war. While the French dithered he traveled to Holland to get a loan from the Dutch. He commented in one of his letters that the Dutch spent too much time and money speculating on the breadstuffs of the country. Interestingly enough, the New Amsterdam colony was located in southern Manhattan and is now the financial center of New York where Wall Street is located. The revolutions in America and France marked a 2? wave down from twin bubbles in France and Britain. Those twins, South Sea and Mississippi bubbles peaked exactly 300 years ago in 1720.

Question is...Is this the top of a 3 wave or 5?

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 1:12pm
Solsson
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April fools day arrived one

April fools day arrived one day early. Just recovered my new laptop. The boot up failed, "critical error" and a blue screen, tried to restart, same problem.. Tried to reinstall windows, that failed, a system restore did the trick, phiew ... what a relief.

Guess the name of the problem, "Globalization" folder haha and look at the date. It is created from the future, amazing.

I totally agree, the globalists are a joke!

Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 1:57pm
Solsson
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The golden balrog is a mean

The golden balrog is a mean globalist killing machine.

We have a Swedish saying, "you are going to lose your shirt". I will receive a shirt the 7-8 of April, the price is 99:- how to interpret this kind of symbolism?

Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 10:11pm UncleFester
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UncleFester wrote:

UncleFester wrote:

Recently read a biography on John Adams. He was sent oversees along with Jefferson to secure a loan from France during the revolutionary war. While the French dithered he traveled to Holland to get a loan from the Dutch. He commented in one of his letters that the Dutch spent too much time and money speculating on the breadstuffs of the country. Interestingly enough, the New Amsterdam colony was located in southern Manhattan and is now the financial center of New York where Wall Street is located. The revolutions in America and France marked a 2? wave down from twin bubbles in France and Britain. Those twins, South Sea and Mississippi bubbles peaked exactly 300 years ago in 1720.

Question is...Is this the top of a 3 wave or 5?

I suspect none of us will be around for that A,B,C correction from the 1720 peak. Maybe none of us want to be around to see it either.

The children ....that's another story. I wonder what they are going to call the generation born post corona virus? A real interesting naming challenge. The Covid 19 Generation

Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - 10:21pm Green Lantern
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Covid 19 Generation

"the Quaranteens"

Wed, Apr 1, 2020 - 4:24pm
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Thanks

You boys are a wealth of knowledge. Thanks for your efforts. A friend in Chicago. Cheers

I miss my old dog.

Wed, Apr 1, 2020 - 4:34pm
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Generation

The Vaxteens

I miss my old dog.

Wed, Apr 1, 2020 - 5:42pm
zman
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CRB index hits another new

CRB index hits another new low and the 10 year T-bond goes down to .58% and very close to the all-time low in yield at .54%.

So when it the helicopter money coming for Main Street? The rents, mortgages, car, student loans, credit cards payments are coming due already. Here's the reality, it's not coming. The markets are clearly pointing to depression levels of deflation for Main Street. The only concern is for Wall Street.

All of this will get worse in coming weeks and months ahead. New lows for stocks, bond yields and the CRB Index. I have to laugh when I hear about concerns with future demand creating inflation. With the vast amount of debt, yields will HAVE to stay at these current levels of even lower.

Thu, Apr 2, 2020 - 2:17am
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What would complete the

What would complete the golden balrog's head

It is imminent to happen imo. Beautiful symmetry, so far.

Fri, Apr 3, 2020 - 5:22am
herple
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Cycles and ego - not an ideal combination

Hi AM and everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster. I'm a HUGE fan of your teasers and the way you lead people to discover things for themselves, a method that I think is severely underrated.

I'd like to preface my post by saying it's not about AM, but I follow other cycle analysts and I think it does apply to them.

If you deem my post to be in poor form AM, let me know and I'll delete.

I've been following Martin Armstrong for a very long time, starting around the time he was writing pretty interesting stuff about gold when he was imprisoned some time ago. He was making some pretty bold predictions, not only about gold but about the DOW aswell. Over time I noticed that that which started out as a confident claim of direction often suddenly became nuanced and even conditional as timing drew closer, and when inversions happened suddenly it was timing that was the most important factor and not direction.

It taught me to stay vigilant and critical.

Martin also likes to start his posts, and recent letters to a certain president, with statements about how connected he is and how correct he was in the past.

You'll often see posts on his blog about dramatic events unfolding at high-visibility institutions. Recently he posted a pretty alarming post that "The United Nations is seeking the power to IMPOSE a 10% global tax on everyone". Powerful stuff. His article links to a politico article, that doesn't mention a tax, but links to the UN report in question. I read the 26 page report; the wording is a bit different from the wording on the blog: "A large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive multilateral response amounting to at least 10 per cent of global GDP is needed now more than ever." In the spirit of AM's way of teasing and having you do some critical thinking, I'm going to leave you with some questions rather than answers. Is a "response" necessarily a tax? Is a "response" necessarily funded by a tax? Can central banks also formulate a "response"? Does the UN have power of taxation? Where does tax sovereignty usually lie? Is GDP often used as a tax base?

Martin also often posts about gold, his least favorite asset since his predicted phase transition from 2017 didn't quite work out, preferably about things happening in a foreign land and in a foreign language. Germany was supposedly stopping gold sales about 10 days ago. The title -with a question mark admittedly- was based on a news update from Pro Aurum, supposedly the largest physical gold dealer outside the banking system in Germany. Thing is, they state themselves in their "about us" page on their website ("über uns"): Vertrauen Sie einem der größten Goldhandelshäuser im deutschsprachigen Raum und erleben Sie pro aurum: Über 100.000 zufriedene Privatkunden, 1.200 Vermögensberater und Verwalter, mehr als 150 Banken und 50 Edelmetallhändler haben die Vorzüge unserer starken Marke bereits erlebt.". So they have supplied at least 150 banks in the past. Thing is, they reopened and are still delivering, but with a small wait time because their 7 physical shops are closed.

Either Martin can't speak German or doesn't have someone in his team who can (maybe Socrates can, I don't know). Which brings me to another thing: since his predictions of a phase transition in gold didn't pan out, he's been VERY adamant about how Weimar-era Germany stopped it's rampant hyperinflation. Real estate. Which is technically true, Germany used certain parts of it's countries real estate to back the Rentenmark in 1923.

But what about regular people? Was real estate the best bet?

German Staaten ("states") often levied taxes on real estate at the time, a "Grundsteuer". Saxony ("Sachsen") for example levied, in 1924 (!), a Grundsteuer that was "in Goldwert erhoben" (literally "raised in gold value").

I'm going to leave you with a question again: when you owned real estate but were taxed on it, and the tax had to be paid in a converted amount of gold value instead of now worthless Papiermark, what were the odds of you having to liquidate that real estate to raise money if you didn't diversify?

Fri, Apr 3, 2020 - 8:17am
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Interesting post above.

Here's a thing for people who study cycles:

Four years ago (presidential cycle) there were two candidates holding mass meetings to rally support for their election race.

The Donald was filling large sports stadia.

The the Hillary wasn't doing as well in that particular department of electioneering. We saw small venues, with close angle shots in (gushing) press coverage that failed to discuss attendance of rallies. But complexion color seemed important to them!

The crowds weren't there for one side. But the crowds were there for the other.

And .... here we are again, four years later. Same cycle, next wave.

And mass meetings are cancelled as the election approaches.

Handy virus. Isn't it? It neutralized an advantage for one side in the battle to rule the worlds dominant country. That ... by product of tragedy ....is very handy for some interests, I'm sure.

"Did you think the hydra would take it lying down? " Dr Fekete once said. He was talking about gold, sound money, and the entities who benefit from fiat currency devaluations when they are at the same time stealing the value of movies saved by the people.

What Fekete said applies to this too.

Coincidentally....

But the cycles tell us where to look in affairs of people. In a fuzzy imprecise way, insight awaits those who look harder than others.

Remember, cycles synchronize with each other, linking different groups of sympathetic interests. Don't forget about the ever present synchrony of cycles.

Everything is connected in a nonlinear universe, according to the scientific understanding.

And the affairs of mankind are no different. Factions, alliances, movements, connections are everywhere. It can be challenging to follow problems back to identify their source, when sources are constantly obscured so much.

But it's possible to draw a few conclusions.

Now the press, remember them from 2016, are shouting at us to "stay away from everybody else". "Don't assemble". And other things like that.

Is that handy for anybody in particular?

https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2020/03/peter-hitchens-yes-coron...

Madness or synchronization of interested groups?

The deflationists vs the inflationists.

Neither group are on my side.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Fri, Apr 3, 2020 - 10:01am
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Timing and synchrony is an

Timing and synchrony is an interesting subject. One I'm looking into more and more. I've been known to post things that were perfectly timed with other things I was not aware of outside of me and inside of me. And sometimes I was aware even if it didn't look like I was.

That's the beauty of looking into cycles yourself. Because facts can reach different conclusions depending on who is drawing the conclusions.

Fri, Apr 3, 2020 - 11:06am
zman
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Martin Armstrong, just

Martin Armstrong, just another incoherent big month who's wrong about everything 95% of the time. It's amazing, all of these guys are always wrong about the economy and markets. Do you know what's really the problem with what they write and their interviews? Nobody questions the nonsense they spew. They wouldn't enjoy an interview from someone like myself, someone who questions their constant inconsistencies in reasoning.

Martin and others have horrible track records, but who calls them out on it? Nobody. I have a decent memory and almost all of these guys have been wrong year after year about most economic issues. The main reason is they really don't understand economics. I'm not just picking on Martin, the whole gang is just like him, wrong almost all of the time.

Fri, Apr 3, 2020 - 2:46pm
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A is for Aardvark, Accurate, Asset, Analysis ....

@Zman: I have some thoughts about analysis and accuracy, track records and the memory of "retail" for comparison of good vs bad performance in the industry.

There is a problem with analysis of markets, sure. Good stuff seems rare.

But I would like to point something out: information about markets is not accurate, despite legislation being in place that it should be.

For example, there are exemptions for corporations to not adhere to conventional accounting standards. So the rot comes from the top, regulation level. Power rules through justice, not fairness.

Central bankers use media announcements to "guide" markets where they want them to go. Power has the megaphone, we don't.

Politicians appear to trade information advantages without repercussions. Often this appears to be legal, due to laws passed in the past exempting these people from the punishments under laws applied to other people. Prosecutions take different budgets for different people, and are extremely delayed for those not with power. Justice for the little takes a lot of time in other words.

So where is the good information to be got, for a sincere analyst to use as his raw material with which to produce good analysis?

Different analysts go to different workarounds for this problem.

I use price, sentiment, and some techniques that I have discovered which cause change in these factors.

It's not easy. Actually it's very difficult. Consequently I am reluctant to point fingers at people who earn their living by what they do.

I prefer to remind people that it is on you to verify results, or lack of them, in the track record of any analyst whose output you plan to use to make investment decisions.

In markets, it is always on you. Everything is ultimately on you.

Not the corrupt banker/politician/market.

Not the broker.

Not the messenger.

Not the news or the message.

They are all doing what they always did, and always will do, and You. Are. Responsible. For. Your. Financial. Decisions.

I understand the problem. I understand the difficulty. I understand the cost. I understand the frustration. I must understand because that is exactly what I had to go through too.

In markets, everyone goes through it.

It's a strange thing. We must be able to take risks. but to survive we must also be risk adverse.

I often think the better traders and analysts merely run faster when things begin to go pearshaped. They abandon ship faster. They don't try to hold onto a failed investment reason longer than the shortest period required to find it is wrong.

They dump theory in the face of facts extremely quickly. No ego investment there!

The market is king. We are its subjects. It rules us.

It never was a 50:50 deal.

It was always worse than a 90:10 deal over 3 years or longer.

It always was a 75:25 deal in any one year.

But, it is possible.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Fri, Apr 3, 2020 - 7:00pm
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Armstrong and Ego

I was going to lay out on this one out but after a second reading, and cross checking Armstrongs posts this comes across as a dishonest hit job, or gross misinterpretation of items that really aren’t that important to a trader who should be asking much different questions.

I watch Armstrong. I watch AM. I watch 1/2 dozen other cycle analysts. I watch guys that track cosmic cycles. I watch anybody that has something to teach me or something that I could glean some information. I used to watch Lawerence Welk when I was a kid even though it was unhip and it was music from generations before.

Why? Because it was 21 professional musicians who had a gig, that probably knew how to play much hipper music than the gig required but they were doing it. Some of those guys could really play, but you would never know it with how square and boring the music was. But everybody else said they sucked. Not that they sucked. They just didn’t like his music. Big difference. In the same way, I’m curious what other professional traders do. What they trade, their trading styles? Techniques etc…

I have watched Armstrong carefully, and I don’t see an accurate representation of his work here.

That's unfair and unjust. So I will attempt to meticulously support my experience with Armstrong.

A family member who doesn’t trade, doesn’t do technical analysis, doesn’t care to (like many here) subscribes to Armstrong and I’m at his house looking at Socrates quite often. The people who I have spoke with that subscribe also do not trade, do not have extensive technical knowledge and very little knowledge of cycles.

Therefore they are ill-equipped to be able to use socrates. I’ve seen at least three people read something that was totally opposite in meaning than what they interpreted it. But it has to be the other guy that’s wrong.

To think you can read somebody elses indicators without basic knowledge of trading and trade successfully is an egregious user error. That’s why he has non-trader level subscriptions. General direction and commentary without the details. That's mostly what gets published on the main page. Socrates has arrays with reversal levels, support and resistance, transverse cycles, wave lengths, volatility indicators etc, etc, etc, Can my brother read it? Nope. He wont' read Murphy's book how is he going to make sense of it But he is diligent reading his summaries and will triangulate with others to ensure he is reading it correctly.

Many Armstrong followers don’t want to trade. They want to lay their money in a market as close to a bottom as possible and let it ride. Like most people on this forum. I've seen comments that require clarification and I've seen overt errors. Do people write in and ask questions? Nope. Human nature I guess. I have scolded my brother numerous times and told him to copy and paste and send it back to them to help clarify. And sometimes they have to change the signal. Whose got our backs?

He has clearly stated to his subscriber base at his meetings that Socrates is a work in progress. Therefore you take the write ups with a grain of salt and you must refer to the indicators which if you don't study TA, you can't read them. Catch 22.

People assume wrongly that he is giving them the key to money heaven. Nope!

Armstrong has his own language, his own way of naming certain indicators, certain type of cycles and unless you take a good amount of time to decipher it, work with it, note where there are errors, and they do show up, you’re probably not equipped to make a proper judgement on it. Otherwise, it’s entirely possible you come out of it putting the blame on him, not you.

I have looked at the cycles which he doesn’t name and looked at it through my understanding of cycles. And because he doesn’t name the cycles, don’t expect you’re going to learn to trade cycles with him. BAD IDEA. An experienced trader might or somebody in the process of studying cycles because they take the time draw a line between the last event and his forecasted event. That's what I do. I study people's work AND I am indebted to them for sharing their work so I can learn.

Do you see any charts with cycles in gold or silver like AM laid out? No Therefore you’re really interested in having somebody tell you what to do. That’s not his fault. That’s yours. Socrates is geared for experienced traders and this post is like other posts of disgruntled users I’ve read on other forums. They lost money diving into the deep end of the pool and blaming the guy for what they didn’t understand.

Does he get it right? You bet he does. The green days are up. And the red days are down. Does anybody mention that??

Socrates is not something I really want to spend time figuring out. It’s somebody else system and I have enough freakin’ work to really learn how to trade and analyze markets. That’s why I belong to a service where I can learn to see it for myself because until I do, I'm not really a trader. Still in process. However, I find his general commentary on the main blog on history, and trends interesting to consider. And sometimes I go... ahhh, I don't know about that.

Socrates actually gets it right a whole lot of the time but often you figure it out after the trade. Apparently, he warned everybody of the crash. I didn’t personally read it. I was already out. I saw alot of people in preparation mode but many people were struggling with timing the down. Not easy stuff.

you have to be so meticulous in working with it which I don’t. And only then would I think it would be fair to discuss his track record but it’s totally fair to address any topic that he brings up. We've done it on these forums many times. Fair game

The thing about critical thinking is that two people with the same facts can reach different conclusions.

Can the UN enforce taxation? obviously not. And? You’re implying his concern, and many others, has no merit?

UN has no sovereignty but that is not the point he is making. Who is the United Nations? We know it ain’t Trump, an anti-globalist.

Didn’t Bloomberg ,Mr. Global warming ambassador to the UN admit on live tv o supporting every leftist congressman? “I bought them” Oops that was a slip

Do they want to tax you with the Green New Deal? All day and all night. . The people behind the UN run the show and pull the strings of the politicians. Why do you think Trump went there and lambasted them?

Who has Greta’s back?How did the US patriots act magically arrive on every continent? Magic huh.

What about the tax you get at the check out in New York and California for a paper bag to save the environment? Ahhh, a hidden tax that goes for what and backed by who?

I didnt' get these questions from Armstrong

They are already taxing you. And if you don’t think Eurostyle taxes are coming to the US, just look around. The last two weeks is the BIGGEST tax EVER.

German gold sales

Here is some critical thinking. I can’t read German either but I can read English.

You are implying he said that they stopped sales of gold in Germany. That’s not what he said. You didn't summarize his statements accurately

Here is what Armstrong says:

They are closing their online shop for three days from March 23rd to 25th 2020. They stated that they will re-open again after that but with a limited product choice, and who really knows? The reason they are giving is interesting:

„We were told today by our logistician service provider, Prosegur (who delivers our physical metals worth 25.000 Euros or more) that until further notice they will not deliver to private persons and private persons can not pick up their orders.“

One wonders what is going on here?!

I'm wondering ... Am I the only one? I'm wondering about those long lines that I read in the Irish Times this morning. The panic buying. Why you guys panic buying? No technical analysis in German?

You left out the part about closing the store for three days. That’s all he said in addition to his companies purchases. Your words implied they closed gold sales in Germany. He didn’t say that.

You left out the part about “Tafelgeschäfte” and the new European Union limits. You left out all the discussion of the melting of the 400 oz to 100 oz and the foreign buying of gold from the COMEX. All which Turd has been laying out on main street. There is something fishy going on with large movements of gold and curious cycles appearing.

The bigger point is we are seeing some interesting developments against all alternative currencies that deserves looking into. This is all he is saying and what a lot of people are concerned with including myself and have been for sometime. And it has come up here years before. Remember?

My reading is he has reached no definitive conclusions on whether that will happen. He is not the only person looking into the situation.

If you’re going to do a hit job on somebody, it would be better to accurately convey what they are saying.

The thing about wealthy people buying real estate in a non-inflationary environment and ignoring the little guy who can’t afford to buy fine art, real estate or other assets in that type of environment is not relevant to todays conditions, nor is it inaccurate to point out that’s what wealthy people did. We used to have a fine art collector in one of the other trading forums.

What you invest in is relative to your circumstances. I bet you he knows that. I know that.

I went back to his 2015 posts. No record of calling for a blast off in gold. Just the opposite. His position doesn’t seem to have changed in regards to timing of a bull market in gold.

I never heard him ONCE use the phrase “phase transition” relative to gold and there is no record of it that I could find. I’ve been reading him for a long time. Possible I forgot? yes. Possible he deleted it? yes

He changed his style. So did AM.

And?

Am used to talk about these things called inflections and directional changes. Now he talks about comic books, video games and movie reviews. Did I accurately represent what he is doing? Not in the least. That's an unfair characterization of what he is doing and what he is attempting to illustrate what is behind all of these games.

I know this technique. I’ve read the books on fallacious arguments. And I was just refreshing my memory the other day. The average person can’t or can’t be bothered with it.

ego and cycles. It's leading. His personality is immaterial. If he helps you make money and he is a psychopath. Job accomplished. You’re not hiring him to be your baby sitter. It’s a non-sequitur and it’s leading. It is the same thing with Trump. Some say very confident. Others call it narcissism or ego grandiose. Does he have the latter? Probably, but I don't get that it is a hardened psychological character structure that merits attacking when a majority of the population harbors the same archetypical structures. According to the literature. I'd rather discuss his policies unless there are extreme personality flaws that would intefere. In our current situation, I don't think the problem is his personality.

It would be honest to say Armstrong rubs you the wrong way. Nobody can argue a subjective opinion. We all have ego’s.

He wrote a letter to the President

So do A million American’s every day and many write notes to El Presidente every day on social media. And some sit by the computer for hours so they can be the first one or two comments including some celebrity social media figures. what do people think will come of it? what are you going to do? Do a personality assessment on each of them?

I have to wonder if you lost money trading his systems.

Many of his long term calls are very consistent with the literature that shows up here. Chris Carolan for one. Did AM TAlk about BRad Cowan? And many other Gann traders that endeavor to follow the cycles.

I am guilty, now and then, of calling out individuals with status on the web but what I attempt to do is address their arguments and support my argument with accurate details. You haven’t done that.

It can be very frustrating to read extreme biases in analysis while everybody watches and says nothing. It will NEVER be the crowd that calls them out. It’s always be the few

This notion that track record is the best way to make judgement about a persons skill becomes cliche when it is asserted but not demonstrated. Here is what I observe.

Peoples’ brains will omit those errors if they have the same cognitive dissonance/bias as the person they follow. That makes the person judging their record equally not credible.

People will highlight one or two bad calls and leave out the rest to strengthen their opinion realizing most won't do the due diligence

If you were to eliminate every forecaster that got it wrong, you’d eliminate everyone. We'd all have to evaporate and disappear.

Is Armstrong, technically bullish or bearish with gold at the moment? Are you aware of his support and resistance levels? Reversal levels? Wouldn’t that be important?

I bet you most people reading, there and here aren't, even aware of the different support levels. Guess what? They are mighty, mighty close to what was posted here. Maybe two or three points difference. That leads me to believe he probably has superior technical skill than 90% of the trading public including myself. My resistance and support are sort of fuzzy. Sometimes close.

So if track record is an important measure for a forecaster is it equally important to use the same ruler for those that review a forecaster performance? I guess that's why we have hat tips. Unfortunately, it's a flawed system. Like democracy. Do I trust the collective to support the most useful comments. I have ten years of observations.

Ever read the reviews on amazon.com. The biggest challenge is trying to figure out whether the majority is correct with a great review or the minority is correct with a bad review. YOu can admit the ones that say package arrived damaged. Or it didn't fit correctly so I give it one star.

Scary how people with the same facts can vastly interpret reality differently.

It was an interesting first performance to say the least.

Reminds me of this movie. Great performance by Al Pacino. I seem to identify with this archetype.

Frank Defends Charlie in Court

Frank Defends Charlie in Court - Scent of a Woman (8/8) Movie CLIP (1992) HD
Sat, Apr 4, 2020 - 5:59am
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delete

delte

Sat, Apr 4, 2020 - 6:11am
Green Lantern
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Addendum

One other data point that I don't think I've seen mentioned anywhere. Get ready for this one....

If somebody claims to have something that is different than what exists anywhere else on planet earth, it is human nature to what to look at it. No?

If you log on to socrates, you see a list of untold 100's or thousands of markets across the world.

World stock indexes, every forex market you can think of, world real estate, agriculture, mining indexes, individual mining properties, metals, world bond markets, energy markets, ETFs... The sheer number of markets is staggering. It is almost inconceivable that one human could update, multi-page premium write ups, multi-page summary writeup, multi-page detailed analysis, and data and indicators across all time frames on a daily basis.

An entire dashboard that's lid up like an airplane controller cockpit, with indicators of prices in all world currencies, indicating ranges, energy indicators, pivot levels, envelopes, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly indicators, technicals with intra-day indicators, reversal levels on all time frames, reversal gap levels, the ability to compare price levels across all markets.

You get my point?

It would be impossible for a human to update so many thousands of markets, all those writeup, and indicators for multiple time frames on a daily basis. I can't conceive how it's possible. NOt to mention, update a public blog with sometimes 3 or 4 entries, and a private blog, write two hundred page reports on various economic phenomena, or markets, I think he has a very lengthy report already done on corona virus. How he can update untold thousands of pieces of data daily (markets are updated daily) is beyond my comprehension.

Even with access to socrates, and I only have access to one premium market analysis of all the thousands available, and ONLY partial data on dozens of other markets, I conclude based on my first hand experience that I am incapable of drawing hard conclusions of what's going on and to make a complete and thorough assessment of his accuracy. IMPOSSIBLE!!! I'm not the man. I just don't have the experience or resources to monitor all that data to comment on his real track record or his computers track record. I can only give you observations. Armstrong asserts that he relies on the computer and translates that data into human writings.

Most newsletter writers track and analyze maybe 1/2 dozen markets for which you might get one newsletter, once a month, with a fraction of the data. Unless you're just a metals forecaster analyzing two markets 24/7, and that doesn't include an entire list of mining properties.

Even with access to some fraction of socrates, because each market has added cost for subscription, I am not qualified to make a complete assessment.

But non-traders across forums feel qualified to make final judgments on what something is, it's accuracy, totally write it off, make character assessments without even having put a foot through the front door to look at it.

I'm not exaggerating when I say it's a bit like telling me you can walk into this place, study all the information and draw conclusions on what it is, and the accuracy of thousands of pieces of data.

And then a guy, gets all this data,untold thousands of variables, cycles of disease, economic forecasts and puts it into a letter and writes POTUS, vs Mr. Social Media Star who writes 10 words based on his opinion on twitter, now lets talk about ego.

To assume that you really can draw firm conclusions either way, bullshit or excellent, without spending a nanosecond looking at the all the data. seems from my vantage point preposterous.

And then posting publicly conclusive opinions on what the hell is going on, and think for a moment it's not you with the ego issue.

If I was to type up a list of all the ego tricks we play on ourselves, all the strategies the ego uses to defend itself, it would be pages. None of us would walk out alive. And believe me it's really hard to look at such a list, if you're honest with yourself, and almost feel good about yourself. Although these type of writings aren't meant to trigger all your guilt complexes, just to enlighten you about the nature of the human mind.

Therefore I conclude, that I am not qualified to draw hard conclusions about his track record, what kind of engine or machinery is putting forth all that data, and come to hard statistical conclusions about his track record. Maybe there is tom foolery involved? Maybe it is what he says it is? But if I was a mechanic, I'd least want to take a look under the hood before coming to hard conclusions.

But we enlightened people can say with certainty it's all bullshit not even having peaked into the control room and I'd venture a guess that most of us wouldn't even understand what we're looking at. And even with all that data, indeed he does change his calls and that can be explained by the multi-universe nature of markets that a market has to exceed a range or be crushed before you can know what comes next. At least that is my understanding to date of how markets work.

I have great reservations that he simply doesn't know what he is talking about and is like everybody else but it has been made clear to me by other traders that 8.6 years is not the only game in town and thus as a forecaster still in diapers, I'm obliged to research all the other possibilities that can be used for long term analysis and some of it, I see with my own eyes but still not far enough long to make judgments with the certainty I read on forums around the blogisphere. Makes me want to curl up, crawl under a bed and never read an opinion by another human again.

I don't know why the subject of Armstrong has been such a touchy subject over the years.

Fair warning. I could be wrong. But so can you.

Sat, Apr 4, 2020 - 8:34am
Green Lantern
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8862
49830

Corona virus press conference?

That's a hell of alot of military brass for a war on a virus. I spy secretary of defense, I spy Navy Admiral, I spy tactical maps, and a whole lot of powerful men who know how to conduct war. A whole lot of war talk during a national crisis.

Iran planning attacks at US bases?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/iran-hits-back-after-trump...

Some behavior psychological techniques that might be useful. It's called a Swish pattern. You exchange pictures. Move your attention from one situation, to another, that's less threatening to you. SWISH.... We do it all the time.

First up, you take a memory that is associated with excitement - such as anticipation of going to a theme park or a party with friends. Concentrate on how you feel, thinking about what might happen, all the promise of adventure - now picture that situation in your mind and SWISH! Quickly swap that picture with the picture of going to school tomorrow. Then, before any feeling of anxiety starts to form, SWISH! Swap the picture back to the good memory.

No corona outbreak maps. No Dr. Fauci. Will we soon see pictures of Mexicans with machine guns?

http://www.islamedianalysis.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/042.jpg

http://www.islamedianalysis.info/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/042.jpg

Maybe one or two of these...

And that's how you do a counter coup swish pattern?

Ya just flip the pictures. Just flip them.

Then we can talk about the sudden rising prices at the fuel pumps. Five waves up baby. Five waves.

Sat, Apr 4, 2020 - 8:50am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
Sweden
Joined: Dec 14, 2013
1177
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I guess MAGA failed ...

I guess MAGA failed ...

Epic chart: US weekly jobless claims data series since inception. pic.twitter.com/G5k24nxJRS

— sᴛᴀʀᴛᴜᴘ ᴅᴀᴇᴍᴏɴ 🇺🇸 (@startupdaemon) April 2, 2020

I am suspicious about the timing of the coronavirus. It is as if "they" wanted to leverage this downturn to the max. We are truly in unprecedented times.

randomness