The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 12:36pm
ancientmoney
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From Egon von Greyerz...

"STOP PRESS

PRESSURE IN PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET & END OF PAPER MARKET IN GOLD AND SILVER

The Swiss refiners in the Canton of Ticino closing due to CV is having a major effect on the availability of gold. We must remember that 70% of all gold bars in the world are produced in Switzerland and that the 3 biggest refiners are in Ticino where the local government has ordered non-essential factories to close.

Since last Friday when the Swiss refiners closed, gold is up $100 and demand is major and frantic. Bid – offer spreads have increased substantially and premiums on gold and silver are very high. Gold in bigger quantities is now very difficult to obtain but not impossible. There is a major silver shortage and virtually impossible to find. Smaller quantities of silver fetch a 100% markup on spot.

With very little physical available and demand substantial, there is soon likely to be pressure on the paper market. Investors who have bought gold and silver futures will be concerned of the contracts being honoured and ask for delivery.

What we are seeing now is probably the beginning of the end of the gold and silver paper market." https://goldswitzerland.com/swiss-gold-refiners-cease-production-end-of-...

Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 3:03pm Solsson
zman
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

Here is another one by Sprott:
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-23/It-s-time-to-buy-gold-miners-price...

and another one predicting gold $2500 this fall:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/get-ready-for-$2-500-gold-price-this-summer---b--riley-fbr-8666873

Anna butterfly 88 haha ...
https://www.kitco.com/reporters/AnnaGolubova/

Do the big banks-kitco-sprott work together to fool the small investor to buy or is it a honest opinion described in these articles? QE to infinity has a nice ring to it if you are a precious metal bull.

"QE to infinity"

We can see that gold isn't really getting very excited about this statement, either is the US Dollar. The QE and "stimulus package" isn't inflationary in nature, it's nothing more than socialism for the banking system and some free money for certain industries. None of those policies put money into the real economy.

I'm sorry to break the news, but putting $1200 into the hands of some broke and debt filled peasants isn't inflationary in nature. In fact, it doesn't even make up for the obvious loss in purchasing power from unemployed workers.

I was correct when I stated there's no white knight coming to save the peasants, all of the money is going to Wall Street as excepted. It's socialism for The Elite and capitalism for the peasants. Anyone still a fan of "capitalism"?

I

Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 5:54pm
Green Lantern
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Those are some really smooth

Those are some really smooth articles from Kitco. Kind of like 20 yr Scotch, goes down smoothly. No concerns about details, moving averages, resistance/support. Just sit back, let us take care of the details, we are here for you if you should need us.

I've seen this strategy someplace before. Can't put my finger on it?

Donald J. Trump

The next 3 years....GOLDEN Opportunities. We can't wait nor should you. We have the best people doing the numbers for you.

--------

Kitco, I wonder where those people come from? Their CV. It's an instructive exercise.

Thu, Mar 26, 2020 - 6:28pm
Green Lantern
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It's the same strategy. It

It's the same strategy. It seduces but it doesn't inform. The bullish headline. Is it enough to suck the average investor in during a down trend simply by calling it a BULL MARKET?

I don't know about you, but it doesn't look like a bull market to me. Looks like a rebound.

Dow Escapes Bear Market With a 6% Rally

The blue-chip index is now up 20% from its low, qualifying as a new bull market

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-3-26-2020-1...

Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 3:12pm
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SLV Weekly update post

I haven't posted a harmonic projection update for a while.

Here is one that seems to be working at the moment. I'll post the other in a while.

Note that the sensitive but less reliable projection, shown in smoky blue, seems to have locked with the silver price (as shown by the SLV fund) lately.

As usual the red is a lesser fit, but when this works I often have expectations of some robustness in what it finds.

There may be a longer cycle.

If this is so, the red arrow pointing down towards the right edge of the chart would have to be moved further to the right by the amount of it's overlap with the rising red arrow during Q1 2018. ie It's arrival with destiny is a little to the right of the edge of the chart.

That suggests something possible later this year, if this continues to hold.

This might be suggesting that downwards momentum presently in the market might take some weeks to fade.

Not financial advice. Not trading advice. I am invested in the asset being discusssed. I try to be impartial but may fail in this from time to time, naturally. For discussion only.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Fri, Mar 27, 2020 - 4:04pm
zman
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Stimulus Package- Dylan Ratigan

I have listen to several interviews in the gold community about this trillions of "stimulus" and they miss the point of it almost all of the time. It's not going to lead to hyper-inflation, hell it's not even going to lead to even slight inflation.

Remember Dylan Ratigan? He explains the whole situation very well.

Stimulus Bill: “An Abomination Beyond Comprehension” - “Bernie Folded”.
Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 5:09am
Solsson
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Swedish elliott wave expert,

Swedish elliott wave expert, super bearish regarding gold. $800 target early 2030. At the same time he is very bearish the dollar, we are at a SC top. That kind of analysis doesn't make any sense to me ...

$ och råvaror inför våren

*https://youtu.be/9oV8EJyETQ8?t=306*

I trust AM, Greg Mannarino and Mike Maloney ok thow in Peter Schiff as well. They all got a very good track record. The Swedish EW'r above said that Russia looked very bearish in all timeframes a couple of years ago. The Russian index rallied +120% after that. So he is a great contrarian source to me. Some of his stockmarket analysis is at the same time very good, but for some reason he doesn't understand gold.

Regarding Gold we might go sideways for a couple of months, before take off. Oh, inflation/shrinkflation is already here, this is just the beginning.

This works exactly as a tsunami, the water pulls back(deflation) before the mega wave of inflation arrives. The more things change the more the stay the same, we have seen this before. In 1929 the major gold company retraced -30% before take off, gdxj retraced -45% recently. During the stockmarket crash when the US index fell by -87%, the major gold company at that time soared with a gain of +775%. I am convinced we will see something similar in coming years.

Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 10:40am Solsson
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The long term EW bearish

The long term EW bearish count .... I remember DANERIC has or had such a count for gold, whereby the long inflation up is done for a long time, and B-E-A-R of duration is coming/here.

He updated his big count 20 March, from which I reproduce two charts below. The post, and Daneric's EW blog is here:

https://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/2020/03/elliott-wave-update-20...

Now that's bearish!

So a big Elliott Wave bearish count. If it turns into that, we will have other large concerns too, because socially a police state, or grand pestilence of some sort enables that possible outcome.

Practically speaking: how to deal with such a possibility?

Well: all counts are contingent, the future is not written according to EW, as long as an alternative count exists. So if his A-B-C for Big B up is the one that manifests, then it can't be a 1-2-3 with rest of 3-4-5 up to follow.

So in that case, safeguard against riding big C, a 5-wave impulsive sequence down to his bluie horizontal target is required.

How to do this? Going below his red A up would pierce the 1 up that that swing might alternatively be, and overlapping a wave 2 is not possible in an impulsive wave.

(I am excluding discussion of an expanding wave for this post but sure I am aware of that possibility, in which 2 may be overlapped by a generally sideways to upwards rising and widening range)

In which case stops at top of his A (which is my possible 1) up cut off a big wave 3 down for capital account purposes. So long term stops are at top of A or 1 whatever it is.

With being the criterion, where do you all think price will be attracted to? I'd be inclined to think somewhere around his blue 1 up, blue 2 down, and it it stops above that the bull is the deal.

In fact the distance between his red A and his blue 1 and where stops of decline occurs - the size of that space will be a measure of bullishness (or lack thereof) for me.

I think.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 12:26pm
Green Lantern
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Very sobering but honest and

Very sobering but honest and meticulous analysis.... by Daneric too. Knows his waves even if the outcome is different.

So a big Elliott Wave bearish count. If it turns into that, we will have other large concerns too, because socially a police state, or grand pestilence of some sort enables that possible outcome.

Troubling indeed!!

I'm obviously playing a very defensive strategy with gold and silver at this juncture.

Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 1:10pm Green Lantern
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Well that's his count. There

Well that's his count. There are others that are equally valid, and not so bearish.

Here is the count from the late Tony Caldaro's EW blog:

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24GOLD&p=W&st=2000-07-01&am...(today)&id=p05112412233&a=67200086&r=28

and daily:

https://c.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=%24GOLD&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p81294718599&...

So is wave 5 of that upwave in yet? It's not labelled. We wait ...

Waiting for mine?

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

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Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 1:22pm argentus maximus
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The key is: did wave 5 extend

The key is: did wave 5 extend or not?

So is this downswing a reversal of the lot, or just the move up off last November?

A careful look at the lows open up these possibilities (to me thus far):

You'll notice that I opened up alt counts as the upswing developed, according to which scale was retraced after two wave 3 highs.

So I end up with three alt counts.

The middle one is a bear, with an irregular correction wave B top to be followed by a nasty wave down to take out last year's range.

But the upper and lower counts are hunky dory!

I make no great claims for it. I threw it together. Stops will tell as they always do.

However, that does look like a wave 2, 97%, retracement low, when you look at it one way.

What could be more bullish than chucking all the bulls off and not making a fresh low?

We'll see soon enough.

Politically, gold is rallying as the globalist's economy wound, the COVID Wuhan flu attack, appear to have failed to derail Trump's reelection prospects. (Questioning that? Who flew infected people through the quarantine curtain? Who got the gestation period for a virus already studied for 6 years in universities and bio-weapons labs around the world so wrong and set in place a faulty quarantine period before letting infected carriers into the populace?)

Therefore gold is going back to a place, where if the unthinkable happens it will be ready to breakout.

In other words, the globalist attack on the Trumpster is being rendered ineffective.

They say every President wants a war. Donald may have won his without invading any other territory.

Any rally of gold shows an incremental defeat of the globalists, central bankers, big finance, the deflationists. Opposite, any decline, indicates incremental defeat of populism (ie democracy and freedom) and inflationism.

Look at gold. It's talking every day to us all.

Am I framing this differently than the news, the authoritative sources, and the other analysts?

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Sat, Mar 28, 2020 - 4:58pm
zman
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"the globalist attack on the

"the globalist attack on the Trumpster is being rendered ineffective"

That's presuming there's an attack on Trump, personally I don't see it. He gave them the largest tax cut in US history and now gave them trillions in free money in the form of "stimulus". Trump sold out to The Elite years ago, he's no different than Obama, Bush or Clinton. I proved Trump's failures to his supporters many times in this forum, the trade deficit numbers tell the truth.

"Any rally of gold shows an incremental defeat of the globalists, central bankers, big finance, the deflationists"

This is absolutely true in my opinion. Until the 2011 high is taken out. The Elite are clearly winning the game.

"Opposite, any decline, indicates incremental defeat of populism and inflationism"

Absolutely true again in my opinion. That's why serious fiscal austerity is likely coming in the next 6 months. That's why the "stimulus package" is all about bailing out Wall Street and sending little crumbs to Main Street. It's amazing how the gold community is all excited about the peasants getting $1200, that's completely meaningless.

What isn't going to be meaningless is renters and home owners getting evicted, landlords losing their rental properties, high unemployment, depressed asset prices and no money available to help Main Street.

So yes AM, you're framing this very well in my opinion. The only manner this changes is IF the peasants decide to hit the streets and protest. The US public is too lazy and stupid to organize any protest against The Elite. They're conditioned to being beaten down debt slaves. They're only solution is to form a Go Fund Me page on Facebook and beg other peasants to pay for their medical bills or some other financial issue in their lives.

The bond market speaks the truth, deflationary depression for many years to come is here for the peasants. The CRB also reflects that reality.

Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:04am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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This is why I am bullish gold

This is why I am bullish gold since 2014, when I bought most of my physical. Liberty Silver had a coin shop in Estonia, but Swedish authorities closed the shop 2 years later.

Gold at 16183SEK a Phi number that means...? Gold coins selling at a much higher price if at all avaliable, 28% higher than spot.

Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:14am
Solsson
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My golden count, we will soon

My golden count, we just entered wave 3 of 5 in major wave 3 up. The future of gold priced in dollars, look at my post above.

or I am totally wrong and we will soon breakdown into horrific wave C down.

Edit,
Hmm, what if wave 2 is at the blue A. Wave 1:3 is blue A->B, wave 2:3 is blue B->C and wave 3:3 is blue 1-5, we are now in a wave 3:4 that will create a long triangle before breaking into a final 3:5, before major 4 and a final major 5 up.

Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:33am
Green Lantern
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Becareful Solsson. AM

Becareful Solsson. AM meticulously put out both the very bullish scenerio, the very very bearish scenerio and the geopolitical narrative accompanying gold at this time.

it took me an hour to read AM's first post sharing the Elliott Wave count to compare the narrative to the count, reference and understand the charts. And today I will review his two follow up posts with the more bullish. Stop losses have never been more important and he told us EXACTLY where to put them if worst case scenerio should occur. It doesn't get better than that. Nowhere.

Re-read AM's post in RnP with Polly about players. READ CAREFULLY!!! NOT HERE!!!!

I've been known to take an entire day attempting to understand a paragraph in a book. Because once I get it, I never have to read that paragraph again.

THIS IS SO IMPORTANT. SO FEW..... Can not ever forgot this and always have to remind myself of the samething.

LunaticTrader

@lunatictrader1

Something that makes sense could be wrong. Something that sounds crazy might be true... Never allow yourself to be satisfied with that one line of thinking you believe to be true. Study some alternatives and less likely scenarios. That will give you an edge.

Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:34am Solsson
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One thing. I noticed, and

One thing. I noticed, and haven't looked carefully into it yet, but gold in Euros made a new low below last November's low.

Not impulsive up. corrective at a higher scale, or tilting downwards. in Euros. For the moment I will take the view that it's a larger corrective structure under construction. If it's wave 1 of something impulsive down in Euros, then stops will settle the matter.

Meanwhile, increased volatility will scare retail investments from markets, leaving pros with the bag. When the big guys own the stuff, that is on balance bullish, absent other relevant factors.

argentus maximus

Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html

This analyst - global markets

Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 7:34am
Solsson
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Jesus coming back in April

Such a great timing old time favorite Bo Polny, not the most accurate dude ot there, but honest and in the long run he is going to be correct imo.

Bo Polny – New Era of Time Starts in April -Jesus Coming Back
Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 10:55am
Green Lantern
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ZMAN,

ZMAN,

Watch the interaction between Gov. Cuomo and Trump. Trump threatened to quarantine New York tri-state area yesterday afternoon.. NYC, parts of NJ, CT. We are the epicenter of the virus in USA surpassing China according to the stats they are putting out. Trump went into extreme negotiation mode. Quintessential Trump persuasion. Cuomo went to battle on MSM calling it a war. Trumps message wasn't to me. There is nobody flying from NYC to Florida. I could get a seat today if I wanted.

Why is Trump now going to battle with NY state (his home)

IS Cuomo a globalist? Did he fight Trump on Paris Accords? China trade? Is he a multi-culturalist? A Kennedy? Pushing the Woo Han agenda? Is he and a bunch of governors that convened at their yearly meeting part of the plan?

Alot of 3D games playing out in the media that's not being spelled out.

Who is intervening in the elections? Nobody. Not Russia this time. Is Big Pharma?

Its difficult to find the truth. WaPo is owned by an oligarch who uses it to peddle Coronavirus porn to boost Amazon sales and its extraction economy model. Bloomberg is owned by an oligarch who uses it in service to the financial interests of its owner in China. What's their gold narrative?

Are massive Euro style taxes coming to the US?

We're watching a political Waar

Sun, Mar 29, 2020 - 12:56pm
GuerrillaCapitalist
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Re: "We're watching a political Waar"

"We're watching a political Waar" Green Lantern

We are in the middle of an everything war. The fronts are amorphous and ever changing. I believe we are in the eye of the storm. The times of extreme change are upon us.

I'm watching the President use his immense skill as a negotiator against powerful and competing interests, while trying to comfort a frightened and befuddled nation. I'm a student of Scott Adams and between he and a select few citizens of Turdville I've learned to deconstruct Donald to some degree. I don't think the world has ever seen anyone with The Donald's particular skill set.

I remember in early 1973 when it was clear we had lost the American war in Vietnam; I was a staff officer at the battalion level in Germany. My colleagues and senior officers and I spent many an extended cocktail hour talking about our experiences and the hard lessons so many of those had seared into our very souls as young officers and platoon commanders that led our citizen soldiers into the red haze of senseless, needless war.

War stories soon led to thought experiments of what the next war(s) would be like. The middle east and oil were front and center, as was the Soviet Union. However what scared us was urban warfare fought house to house, city by city. The Bosnian war showed us how right we were. Iraq and Afghanistan then proved the point of how much blood and treasure must be expended in futile attempts to subdue a guerrilla force.

As the booze flowed, the recent riots and civil unrest on the streets of the USA drew our analysis. My buddies and I saw this very scenario, a break down in civil society brought about by an economic catastrophe and/or an attack by one of our many enemies, foreign or domestic.

What is particularly disturbing to this old warhorse is how astonishingly accurate our war gaming scenarios turned out to be. These war games were run at the senior level as well. In fact I taught a semester at my alma mater and had spirited discussions from the cadets that are now flag officers. These scenarios are deeply embedded in at least three generations of soldiers and veterans.

Now all that remains is to fight our particular battle in the greater world war. I know this community is largely aware of how far this great American experiment of citizen led government has diverged from it's founding documents. What remains to be seen is what hungry and angry folks will do and the response from the best armed, best trained citizenry that hasn't been seen for all of known history. As my great grandson (15 years old) said the other day "This is going to be biblical".

That's my report from Appalachia, the first American redoubt and even more fierce after 209 years. My ancestor left North Carolina in 1811 because he was tired of fighting the English and wanted freedom. I'm the seventh generation to hold this land and I've got three behind me and a lot of neighbors with a similar history.

GuerrillaCapitalist

Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - 2:44am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Sorry I was wrong about Jesus

Sorry I was wrong about Jesus ...

Didn't watch the video until now, Jesus second coming is 2029-2030 not now. He is an interesting fellow this guy Mr Polny. His calls in 2020 is accurate too.

Relax GL, I am your polar opposite remember. You are able to reach your target in many ways. The stuff I post here is just the tip of an iceberg. 60% of my total is not even in the precious market.

Nice to see some action in setup again last two weeks has been great!