The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Nov 28, 2019 - 6:51pm
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To Stateside readers of the forum ....

Happy Thanksgiving

AM

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - 1:40am
Pete
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Feb gold Thursday night

A blessed Thanksgiving to all.

Meanwhile...Feb gold 60m chart

Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - 1:51am
Pete
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Here's the chart

Couldn't edit my post above to change a notation on the chart.

Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - 5:44am
Solsson
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Great posts GL&Pete I pushed

Great posts GL&Pete I pushed the right button, too busy to post stuff until JuEL holiday, (the Scandinavians invented Christmas)

Just an off topic (or not) to silver66. Hmm, since I mentioned Toronto Maple Leaves, up until then they lost every game. Since my post they've won every game haha and guess what, they have a babyfaced Swede with the number 88!

Miners superstrong and bouncing, nice to see.

Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - 8:34am Solsson
silver66
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Amazing Swede

That is you Solson and not Nylander

However, we will take any help to win games even if it is esoteric and voodoo

med goda hälsningar tack

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - 11:12am
Green Lantern
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It's your responsibility to

It's your responsibility to confirm a breakout into December with whatever indicators you use.

There are two basic cosmological cycles at play, at least, that could be used as a confirmation.

If things should go the other way, any stop loss is better than none. If you get stopped out of a good trade, it somehow motivates you to look deeper into the subject.

Another use of Solssons' approx 13 week biblical cycle. Or is it 7?

The Lord loves prime numbers. Go figure.

Fri, Nov 29, 2019 - 11:19am
Pete
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To chart or not to chart holiday trading

Can't answer that question, but it makes a real difference, at least to me. With Thanksgiving trade included, the daily chart upper parallel--the strongest resistance level--is at 1468.40. With the holiday trade excluded, the dUH is at 1470.90. Monday, the dUH would be at 1468.40.

Cmegroup has been including some holidays as trading days in some of their charts, some contracts and not others, etc. It is not consistent. It makes for great confusion to a traditional guy like myself. My EOD data vendor, Pinnacle Data, folds the holiday prices into their no holiday charts, and that's been working nicely for years.

The high today so far, which is a shortened day, is 1469.40. The upthrust has stalled some with 2 hours left in the session. If combined into Monday's data by Pinnacle, that would show as $1 above the dUH. I'm not sure how Pinnacle is going to fold this data in. We'll see.

After the zoom at a possible p1 on 11/26, price naturally would want to get back to this level, and perhaps well beyond in a 3rd wave. That's where the dUH would be broken.

Sat, Nov 30, 2019 - 8:37am
Green Lantern
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Gann fans/trendlines

These are not my charts. These have been publicly shared for everyone to view. First one by Olga Morales, Second by an anonymous Gann Trader who goes by a penn name who likes to share his work publicly.

You can see how BTC is stuck in between a 1x1 and 1x2 Gann fan in a sideways pattern that Olga is predicting will last until December 2020 because she has other techniques that can be used to make such a determination.

She has the expensive software that does it all for you.

Gann fans with Gann inflection points.

Social media can be a cesspool of idiots trading political jabs, disinformation, shadow banning.

However, I am not going to be dogmatic and throw out everything, be nudged away or shamed into not utilizing it as a resource when other very passionate, experienced traders enjoy posting their material for me to learn. I have arranged my news flow so that ONLY the information that is most useful is in front of my eyes. I can ban advertisers, and identify people who follow me that don't have good intentions. It's easy to identify these people even before they talk.

I don't even watch the alt political pundits. They are earmarked in my head. Therefore not even their nudging is seen regularly unless I make it a point, pro-active, to read what a they are saying. It distracts me from my goal. But I do read them but I control when.

_________________________________

Speaking of Scott ADams new book, "Loser Think" I read most of it in the book store, and listened to two or three interviews on youtube where he gives the major points away, and having read enough of him, it's enough

My review is different than what you'll find on amazon. It says, it's usefulness is relative to the person reading it but isn't that true of most things?

If you have ignored these principles to date, if you can't identify errant thinking especially on financial forums, than it is probably a 5 star book worthy of your attention.

The more you have endeavored to understand, incorporate dialectic/logical thinking in your own live, it's value will diminish because it is repetitive, but nonetheless has some very good points. And, he has once again put Trump/left as an example. That's good for sales, but bad because in 50 years the book will be dated. But he is not concerned with that because NOW it's in the top selling book list.

He taps into Jungian thought and syncronicity but doesn't identify it as such simply because he doesn't know what is happening. Therefore he is a bit guilty of coming to conclusions on things he is under informed in. See how easy, even for a good thinker is to be guilty of Loserthink??

But he is tapped in to understand the value of coincidence in his live. 5 stars especially for people who don't get it and ignore things they haven't been exposed to. If you don't recognize it happening, it's immaterial what you think it is.

Relative to our purpose here, Scott is a MBA with business experience and writes about all those financial forecasters out there. In general, he's right. Your willingness to fork money over to somebody that will predict the future you is often a scheme. Again, his take away of technical analysis, which he has mocked in his cartoons, does not include the type of stuff that has been featured here.

There are ALOT of people who can predict the small changes in direction of the market. That is a learned skillset. However, there are MUCH fewer people that can predict with accuracy the day the market is going to crash. BUT, they have a much more informed idea than people who just use their perma bear or perma bull bias. A good analyst will say, the date past or we have to becareful because there are multiple scenario's. The con jobs don't do that. There is always a tell.

So again, I doubt Adams has any experience with the type of analysis that has been posted here for years and you can't speak to things that you don't understand. BUT his basic principles of investing and listening to authorities on what you should do with your money are APPROPRIATE.

So like anything, the advice and the value will be relevant to your experience

I paraphrase: Once you have put down money into an investment you automatically develop a bias in the direction of that investment and are likely to make decisions in the future based on that bias.

Common sense is definitely over rated. Good sense is rare.

Think of it this way. Being an independent thinker and making decisions on your investments, along with anything else, is probably the domain of very small percent of the population.

George S. Patton says it well.

"If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking."

"

Sat, Nov 30, 2019 - 1:56pm
Green Lantern
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I finished the morning

I finished the morning plotting some long term cycles in silver. And along the way, I found some Scott Adams coincidences. Like I said, it's just a coincidences. Just plotting highs and lows, it's almost as if the silver market has a favorite number and that you can predict the dates highs and lows will appear using....well, let's call it magic. For those that read DOTS and copied how to calculate your best days of the week, this should be a refesher.

Sun, Dec 1, 2019 - 1:30pm
zman
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FISCAL AUSTERITY

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/14/senate-democrats-join-gop-b...

"senate democrats join gop back automatic austerity bill would get social programs"

But I was told a "socialist" would get elected and spend so much money that The Fed would print money and then massive inflation would take place. That's NEVER going to happen.

The fiscal hand cuffs are coming guys and there's nothing that can stop it, you didn't think the bond holders were going to get screwed by some peasants "voting" in some "socialist" did you? Nope, massive cuts to the social programs are inevitable. This is what happens when The Elite implement 0% and negative rates of interest.

This is why interest rates continue to trade lower and why the dollar goes higher, Big Money already knows what's coming and now it's going to be written into law. If a recession happens and tax revenue has a big decline, the US will NOT be running large deficits, the massive spending cuts will be AUTOMATIC!!!

This is just the start of the austerity and that's why gold can not function in this market, there's no devaluation to hedge against, there's no inflation to protect against.

Sun, Dec 1, 2019 - 10:24pm
Green Lantern
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$SILJ,$SIL and GDXJ.

$SILJ,$SIL and GDXJ. BREAKOUT HERE because lines.

I put a wedge thingie in there. Easier for people to recognize although top line is not an officially sanctioned trend line.

Statistically, as long as it stays above that floating red line-UP

If you prefer, an Elliott Wave A,B,C correction already completed. Using Volume Price analysis, already popped off the line of control, and average volume increasing and more stuff

Mon, Dec 2, 2019 - 8:12am
Green Lantern
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Do any of you remaining DOT

Do any of you remaining DOT members remember all those conversations about Marty Leeds. AM's posts about ISRAEL. All the weird stuff he did by turning letters into numbers?

That was gold too.

PRETIUM = 9 Gold = 6 = 15 =6

See my buy and sell DATES. (READ CAREFULLY). Last purchase was November 6

Do you notice that this stock wildly fluctuates between $6 and $16. Hence my warning to those who would use this as a buy and hold strategy unless you don't mind that kind of stuff.

This would be appropriate listening music if you're trading Pretium because of it's volatility and it makes you bob you're head up and down.

Today

Earth, Wind & Fire - Jupiter (Audio)

I showed this to a family member back in May when I first posted this stock here.

He ignored what he refused to try to get his head around.

Did I push him? No

But his authority didn't say it, and I am nobody compared to his authority. His ole mighty gold and stock God.

Sometimes the universe is strange. It really is simplicity. Sometimes I don't understand why refuse simplicity.

Mon, Dec 2, 2019 - 8:26am
Green Lantern
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#15039Thu, Aug 17, 2017 - 8

#15039Thu, Aug 17, 2017 - 8:19am https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/668264#comment-668264 The window opened and closed. That's often how the universe works. Miss an opportunity, you have to wait. Anyway, it's an important book
Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 4:11am
Pete
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A couple of charts

I believe these breakouts are the real deal and shorts will be covering on the way up, not down, this time.

GDX

GCG0

Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 6:15am
Green Lantern
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The Juniors are leading the

The Juniors are leading the pack on yesterdays slingshot. one more possible before time expires on this trade. Could be today

On GDX hourly (not shown) it hit resistance (past high volume trading area) 3'x's. It will not stay there and time has not expired.

GDX vs GDXJ

SILJ (silver juniors) made a long term break out vs silver.

Based on my levels of support and resistance, I do not seeing gold or silver blasting through september hi's based on a midpoint inflection next week (14 week) of an approx. 28 week cycle. I see it coming down on the inflection and then returning to bullish stance into early next year. There are the other long weekly inflections AM posted that land around those times as well.

But the case that the 4 year presidential inflection in Nov. gave us the low is pretty solid now. The correction will give ME confidence that is the case.

These are hedge funds throwing big money into these trades, not Joe Goldbug. Not sure of the psychological reason for their interest in the juniors.

I understand (but don't know) gold production is at an all time low. Would make sense if there is a correlation between sol. min and gold production. That # would make venturing into explorers highly, highly risky unless you know exactly what you're doing and most non-geologists don't. People buy into the hype, not the geology. Hype can make you money, if you get out of dodge quickly.

Based on that stat,

I'm sticking with companies with existing resources, and charts that show large percentage moves in the past. I have two future dates where I expect slingshots for Pretium but will be seeing if I can find the same type of thing in a $KL which I havent' projected into the future like Pretium. Interesting that it went on sale as others were moving. I want to look at that closely.

Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 6:30am
Green Lantern
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Trade deal now put off until

Trade deal now put off until 2020 election. It's such a game. I'm looking at the next two week window. Dates are good for staying regular unless you're trading it. While I am not of the same believe as Zman that they will NEVER correct, it's like they are engineering a soft landing. Good sign that DOW didn't go higher yesterday making a stronger case for an impending correction.

Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 7:50am
Solsson
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Keep it simple with track

Keep it simple with track record combined with symbolism. 3-4weeks ago during a golf tournament in South Africa the Swedish commentator started talking about The Palace of the Lost Cities. The day before I had a look at an old favorite of mine, Aurania. They are looking for an ancient mine called Lost Cities ...

Sash! - Ecuador (Official Video)

https://www.avanza.se/aktier/om-aktien.html/261050/aurania-resources-ltd

Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 9:36am
Green Lantern
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Ratchet up those stop losses.

Ratchet up those stop losses.

What a joy it is for traders having Donald Trump as US president as he delivers a never ending source of volatility to the markets. It is a truly wonderful gift. And what is even more delightful is the short-termism of each and every tweet, as the market swoons before recovering. In many ways it is so predictable and what I refer to as the souffle effect. What goes up comes down just as fast and vice versa and this simple principle can be applied to the daily charts for all the US indices, and for my example, I have taken the YM emini, but both the ES and NQ three mirror the effect perfectly. And to cut to the chase, expect the markets to bounce back quickly from this short term effect.

For the daily chart of the YM emini, this effect is clearly signaled in two different ways. First, consider the volume for today. It is extreme, but more importantly, the reversal has already begun with the heavy buying coming in late the session and denoted with the deep wick to the lower body of the candle.

Second, the volatility indicator has been triggered which signals a move in price action outside the average true range with the consequent expectation of either or a full reversal as we expect the price action to trade back inside the spread of the candle.

Over the next few days, expect to see risk-on sentiment return, gold to fall, bond yields to rise and the Japanese yen to sell off as this short term knee jerk reaction is seen for what it is – an opportunity for the market makers to accumulate in a wave of panic selling.

By Anna Coulling

Trump is one step ahead of the markets, ahead of his competitors, and ahead of the voters, both his supporters and his enemies. Somebody with deep experience whispers things in his ears.

Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 10:38am
zman
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Cut off the peasants!!!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-04/trump-administration-...

"trump administration moves to end food stamps for 750,000"

Must make sure demand remains weak for the real economy as The Elite give themselves trillions in tax cuts. The fiscal austerity is just warming up, permanent 0% to negative interest rates demand it.

Wed, Dec 4, 2019 - 4:54pm
Solsson
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Miners are strong on a day

Miners are strong on a day when the metals are weak, interesting ...

Victoria and Leagold are up +10-12% that is rare if I've ever seen such a pattern.

randomness