The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 1:47am
Pete
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Gold 60m pm

The 60m chart looks bearish to me. The move after the first abc (w.2 or A of 2) (ending at 1456.60) was strong on the first thrust, but then lost steam going into the morning of the FOMC day. This is obvious since it didn't make the latest ml at its 2nd c top, and was well off the pace of the initial ml from the low at 1446.20 (in green). (This is an example of "ml divergence".)

From the c top at 1479.20, the move was sharply lower, and it zoomed the latest ml from pa. Then price rallied and gapped up at the start of evening trade, but turned near uh x ml. There was wl#1 a little higher as well, from the initial channel (from the 1520 area). This wl, or near it, often marks the end of a wave 4 of the initial channel move, with a wave 5 to come.

The zoom rule says that if price zooms the latest ml at a p1, after it retraces, price should return to the extreme of that p1 (and perhaps much further), with about 80% reliability. The other 20% of the time you get a "zoom failure" that usually is a strong move in the direction against that zoom.

If price is starting a third wave lower (to reach 1466.1 at least), it's hard to say price is out of a correction to the first impulse move up out from the 1446.20 low. The price pattern is not impulsive unless we have a w.1 of 3 to start (from 1456.60) and price has chopped out an atypical flat and it's about to go much higher (the zoom failure scenario), or that is just w.A of a more complex correction in progress.

If a correction is still in progress, one place it might go is to 1459-60 area, where there is strong support that should repel a dropping price reaching oversold rsi status. That would be a place to go long. The irregular flat, 90% retracement rule, would be satisfied at 1458.50, not much below the MLH.

On a daily chart level, R1 of the decline from the highs near 1520 awaits, above the last days out of the 1446 low, and that must be exceeded if gold is to have a brighter future more immediately. That appears to be some days away at best. It is trading sluggishly (lots of chop) to the upside and frankly it looks like rough sledding ahead. Now Thursday at about 1430 is the rising, support angle that was Dr. Andrews' favorite. It would probably take quite a few days to get there, but such a break might improve the CoT picture for the bulls.

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 4:24am
CongAu
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This consolidation in my EW

This is my view if this consolidation. I don't think I posted it, so here it is.

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 4:52am
CongAu
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Now up to date.

From the previous consolidation (Feb to May) the low was 66. The rise was then to 57. The 38.2% retrace was 46.02. The lowest of this move is 45.62 which is 3 of Wave C. It could have been "C" and the end of all this. Further moves suggest it is not, and so via an ABC we did a Wave 4 (Which decided to be higher). The W1 at the start of "C" was 81.15 - As 4 cannot pass 1, it is all consolidation (W5 of C) until there is a clear 5 or 4 carries on above 81.15.

And that is my view, until it changes (again).

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 5:10am
CongAu
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Wierd ????

This s what I wrote.............

From the previous consolidation (Feb to May) the low was 1266. The rise was then to 1557. The 38.2% retrace was 1446.02. The lowest of this move is 1445.62 which is 3 of Wave C. It could have been "C" and the end of all this. Further moves suggest it is not, and so via an ABC we did a Wave 4 (Which decided to be higher). The W1 at the start of "C" was 1481.15 - As 4 cannot pass 1, it is all consolidation (W5 of C) until there is a clear 5 or 4 carries on above 1481.15.

And that is my view, until it changes (again).

That is what I wrote, how did it change ? Spooky.

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 5:45am
Green Lantern
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The smaller cycle that I'm

The smaller cycle that I'm following (much smaller cycle that AM's 4 year) gave us a cyclical low in October. So theoretically, the cycle progression which lands in December should take us to a high. But the market already broke that cyclical low in October. This leads me to believe that we could be once again experiencing an inversion in the cycle. Instead of low to high, the cycle could finish on a low.

In other words, Miners setup should have led us to a high and a much bigger trade if it hadn't broke Octobers low but it confirm another operating cycle, approx 18 week cycle. The cycle, which he doesn't talk about, confirmed the set up as much as the Elliott Wave. The best way to know if a trade is about to happen.

While I bought much more silver than I did gold, and it's working out more profitable, I bought a little gold in the possibility that the cycle high gets fulfilled and just hold.

If we break below my next level of support, and since everyone has something different, YOU CHOOSE, because I don't think these kind of details for most are decision makers, (IT SHOULD BE),I'll be inclined to believe the bearish scenario is in play, the cycle high becomes a cycle low. The fact that we are trading below last months low adds to my bearish caution. So this all depends on what goes on in the next few days.

Taking social/political events as an indicator for gold, I guess we could say the continued impeachment process/and especially the testimony of that guy, Mr. Vindman, (whatever his name is) pushes the confidence needle lower. That is somewhat bullish.

And going back to the entire REPO thing, it looks like they are doing everything they can to ensure banks do not go bust because an event like that would totally favor the bullish scenario.

Basically, the entire political process looks alot like ground hog day awaiting for either an event to move the needle either up or down.

However, it seems we have massive violence especially China and Bolivia. The evidence points to a coup in Bolivia, and CCP organizing the burning down of Hong Kong.

I am watching the USD/Yen currency pair because the Yen is a save haven trade and it can give us an idea where money is flowing and for what reasons. Cyclically, it looks like the sell off in the Yen is ready to turn around.

A sudden rally in gold, would mean we could have another surge into March

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 7:32am
Green Lantern
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I guess if we're building a

I guess if we're building a case, bull or bear, using yuse,record low volume (sentiment) tfmetals. The lowest I've ever seen it. Mainstreet, dead zone, and just a few stragglers out there bouncing around looking for words on a written page. Theoretically, I should be selling the farm but Gold bug VIX is a quircky son of a bitch.

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 10:11am
Pete
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Dec Gold am

can't get it out fast enough. ml is possible target. 2nd h bounce pattern on the 60m. or beyond the ml even.

https://i.imgur.com/q3cpzyP.png

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 1:43pm
UncleFester
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Update

Stopped out, now waiting and watching. Leaning toward CongAu's count for one more 5 wave down, but only leaning. A turn up here would put in a symmetric trading range for the year.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j2UibKck/

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 1:59pm
silver66
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This would support Zman's position

Thought I would post for those here to ponder

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-simple-reason-why-americ...

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 2:23pm
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Thu, Nov 21, 2019 - 2:27pm UncleFester
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UncleFester wrote:

UncleFester wrote:

Stopped out, now waiting and watching. Leaning toward CongAu's count for one more 5 wave down, but only leaning. A turn up here would put in a symmetric trading range for the year.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j2UibKck/

I also have those lines. However, the rise from 1160 (Aug '18) to 1346 (Feb '19) is 186.

This rise is from 1266 to 1557, which is 290.

I always feel a larger rise needs more consolidation. (Just a personal thought)

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 1:35am
Pete
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re Gold Thursday and early pm trade (encouraging)

What a hellacious trading session. But here's the good (probably bullish) news. Very zoomed in so you can see where the push lower ended:

Right on the latest m1 daily ml. The rising blue line is the MLH.

Next I wanted to show something really cool (click the pic to expand):

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 5:43am zman
CongAu
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zman wrote:

zman wrote:

Negative interest rates demand even lower commodity prices in my opinion. How do we get even lower commodity prices? Fiscal austerity.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-pensions/netherlands-spar...

"said future cuts and higher premiums are likely" Yes, they bought 12 months before they lay it on the peasants. This is just the start, it's coming to the US and EU in very large fashion in the years ahead.

It will be interesting how the peasants are told there's no money for their pensions as the central banks buy trillions of corporate bonds and stocks to make the billionaires even more money.

It's very simple from here, commodities/PM's must stay in long term bear markets. And stocks/bonds/real estate MUST stay in long term bull markets. There isn't any choice at this point. Fiscal, tax and monetary policy all force the money into the correct directions.

Could the beaten down commodity index have a 20-25% rally at some point? Yes, but it will be beaten down in short order with fiscal austerity.

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Millions of Dutch pensioners were spared cuts to their retirement income in 2020 after the government granted pension funds a year’s grace period to restore sagging coverage ratios, although it said future cuts and higher premiums are likely.

Dutch pension funds hold a massive 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) in assets, including 456 billion euros at the ABP fund for civil servants and 238 billion euros at the PFZW fund for medical workers. Their coverage ratios have been declining for years, despite solid investment returns, as falling interest rates have swollen their future liabilities.

I have copied the above bits from Zman's link, for easy reference.

“Dutch pension funds hold 1.5T Euros”

ABP hold 456 billion and PFZW hold 238 billion.

That is a total of 694 billion...... Almost HALF of the countries TOTAL pension funds.

So half the countries pension funds are for civil servants.

The other half is to be shared out to the rest of the ENTIRE country.

Civil servants create ZERO wealth, so the hard working “rest” have to fund them – and their lavish pensions.

Koolmees said the pause would help as pension funds, unions and the government attempt to move to a new system that will emphasize defined contributions and weaken benefit guarantees.

The people involved in these negotiations were pension funds, unions and government........... Ergo, this was a socialist meeting, looking after socialist workers.

“To emphasize defined contributions and weaken benefit guarantees”

If like the UK, they are unfunded pensions ….... Were the civil servants pay little or nothing in and retire at 60 on big fat pensions.

Looks like they are being asked to contribute some money and their pensions will be slightly less than the total dream. The unions were there to fight any of that.

Essentially, there are not enough working people in Holland, that can be screwed more to pay the civil servant pensions.

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 5:53am
CongAu
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Zmans Dutch piece.

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Millions of Dutch pensioners were spared cuts to their retirement income in 2020 after the government granted pension funds a year’s grace period to restore sagging coverage ratios, although it said future cuts and higher premiums are likely.

Dutch pension funds hold a massive 1.5 trillion euros ($1.7 trillion) in assets, including 456 billion euros at the ABP fund for civil servants and 238 billion euros at the PFZW fund for medical workers. Their coverage ratios have been declining for years, despite solid investment returns, as falling interest rates have swollen their future liabilities.

I have copied the above bits from Zman's link, for easy reference.

“Dutch pension funds hold 1.5T Euros”

ABP hold 456 billion and PFZW hold 238 billion.

That is a total of 694 billion...... Almost HALF of the countries TOTAL pension funds.

So half the countries pension funds are for civil servants.

The other half is to be shared out to the rest of the ENTIRE country.

Civil servants create ZERO wealth, so the hard working “rest” have to fund them – and their lavish pensions.

Koolmees said the pause would help as pension funds, unions and the government attempt to move to a new system that will emphasize defined contributions and weaken benefit guarantees.

The people involved in these negotiations were pension funds, unions and government........... Ergo, this was a socialist meeting, looking after socialist workers.

“To emphasize defined contributions and weaken benefit guarantees”

If like the UK, they are unfunded pensions ….... Were the civil servants pay little or nothing in and retire at 60 on big fat pensions.

Looks like they are being asked to contribute some money and their pensions will be slightly less than the total dream. The unions were there to fight any of that.

Essentially, there are not enough working people in Holland, that can be screwed more to pay the civil servant pensions.

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 6:52am
Green Lantern
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And there you have it, Gdx,

And there you have it, Gdx, GDXJ, SIL,SILj. Garden variety 7 day trade, stop loss triggered on the waning crescent phase and back in limbo again, retesting support but possibly with a little more pocket change than when you started all corroborated differently by three different traders, make it 4, with very different styles. Even moving averages, declining volume all tell the same story.

Okay, not exciting trades, but I think those who occasionally dabble in these trades will tell you how it keeps your head in the game and counters group sentiment. Something about little wins that reinforces a positive psychology toward the markets, and yourself.

whats the difference between the big setup and the dozens of small setups? Big setup gives you more free time to spend at the bar. Little setups gives you opportunity to exercise, and find your weakness's and time in between to study and fix them.

back to the long cycles, the state of the big setup Thanks for coming, please drive home safely

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 10:29am silver66
zman
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silver66 wrote:

silver66 wrote:

Thought I would post for those here to ponder

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/visualizing-simple-reason-why-americ...

Silver66

No, deflation has NOTHING to do with lack population growth. That's pure nonsense. China and India have billions of people, yet they don't consume as much as the US and EU. The US and EU have deflation because of trade, fiscal and tax policy.

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 10:47am
zman
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"civil servants create ZERO

"civil servants create ZERO wealth" Really? Educating children to be functional adults for the next 50 years creates zero wealth???? A criminal justice system that allows for progress to take place creates zero wealth??

I'm sorry to break the news, but LOTS of public sectors do create wealth either directly or indirectly for an economy. Go ahead and privatize everything and see where it goes.

The fact of the matter is there's ALWAYS enough money for military spending, bank bailouts, corporate tax cuts and MASSIVE amounts of central bank buying of assets. Yet, when it comes to money for the peasants that will be used into the general economy, it's never there.

If it weren't for the retired teachers and other public workers in the US, our economy would be completely dead. They SPEND their money, they don't hoard it like the billionaires that you worship do. You do realize the more billionaires create even a lower velocity of money? But, by all means continue to defend the billionaires and piss on the peasants, and they wonder why trickle down economics doesn't ever work.

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 11:01am
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Deflation

... because the kids in their twenties are not buying stuff.

I said in the Zeitgeist forum "Men on strike".

I'll say it here in a different form: People (consumers) are going on strike.

Disney can't get fans back into the dream.

Fascist society can't get young people into consumerism.

Sure they buy the phone, essential tech. but th replaces other older versions that would have done that function. Do they have a TV? Do they indulge in the consumerist way boomers did?

Debt gets paid off. Since debt is money, the money supply evaporates. Central banks pump 100+ Bn a day into markets, and even with all that the whole caboodle just goes sideways.

Doubt me? Where are the new lows in interest rates in a reserve currency publicly traded market?

It's done. It just hasn't gone into reverse yet.

But, stocks can rise if the currency dumps instead of bonds.

And that is the crux - who wins: bond holders, or the nation state that issued the bonds? Now you know why the bonds have been deliberately commingled with and into pensions by regulation.

So: who won? That war is not done. If it was the streets would have armed military of the winning side on them.

Inflation? No

Deflation? No.

Stagflation ... via pulses of inflation followed by pulses of deflation? This is all around us .....

And in saying this, I am repeating myself.

Why is it necessary that I do that? Because people still believe the news and utterances of authoritative sources.

Write this down and repeat it every day:

Assets go down when they are in the wrong pockets, and go up when they are in the right pockets. This is the first principle.

The thing called "News" is a different thing entirely from "asset prices".

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 11:32am
zman
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Dalio

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/bridgewater-associates-bets-over-1-billi... "bets over 1 billion on wintertime sell off"

It looks like Ray is going to lose even more money for this clients. Go ahead Ray and bet against this stock market. Maybe he will get lucky and get a 3-4% decline and cash in and make a profit, but more likely than not he will see those options expire worthless.

News alert Ray!!!! We can't have a stock market that goes down, it is NO LONGER an option. It can't happen, therefore it will not happen. Last December was the last serious decline you're going to see. How long did that decline last? 3-4 weeks and then the massive rally to new all-time highs started. I'm sorry, but all those years of investing in a market that had price discovery is now your worse enemy, those days are over for good.

We are just in the early stages of central banks supporting the stock market. They still have to buy trillions of corporate debt and then the shares. At some point, there will be another corporate tax cut to bring it down to 0%. Shorting stocks and going long gold isn't going to work Ray, get with the new program.

Fri, Nov 22, 2019 - 11:38am zman
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Do I look Stupid.

As always, I will start this with I am in the UK.

Health workers (Our NHS) do a good job. But there are a lot that are admin, who do little.

Teachers do a reasonable job of brainwashing the children. If you want a reasonable education for your kids, then it's a private school ….. Like most of our socialist leaders.

Our legal system consists of private solicitors. Local councils use private solicitors, though some have in house.

If there is a lot at stake, then you need a good Barrister. The one my wife uses (a lot) costs £8,000per hour – no exemptions, £8,000 per hour....... Just like the peasants have to use.

Then there is the VAST army that are there just to raise money – For their selves and their pensions.

This weeks joke - - - A piece of equipment, inside one of my wife's factories needed replacing. To do that, you have to apply for a new license, because the old license did not cover any replacements. Long story short, the latest offer is a little over £31,000 but the council want more.

I say this week, because EVERY week there is something.

Another factory had to have a Thermal Oxidiser for all the air extracted to go through. Then the Carbon Tax is £1,000,000 for running it.

A few years ago, my wife was sorting one of the largest food packing plants in the country. Running 24 / 7 it would need an extra 1000 staff (to start with). The council fees and licenses went way over £3,000,000 – In the end it did not happen. 1000 well paid jobs down the pan. When told this, there was just a shrug of the shoulders.

You want to know why the peasants have low wages …... Their Commie Council....... Well that's until the factory closes down and moves where they are not taxed into oblivion. Then they have nothing at all.

Enjoy your fantasy world – Like all commie ventures, it will fail. The irony is that the retards who believe you, will be the first to suffer.

The latest here, from the commies (see the news) …... Free broadband for every household. 3 day working week – Yep – THREE day working week.

JUST BUY VOTES.

Your retired teachers etc are spending money the rest of us have to pay in …... Some economics.

randomness