The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 1:35am
Pete
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Maybe we've seen the low in gold

There are some things I'm not comfortable about with this AR interpretation, but it is the most natural center line, even though it might not be Babson's 0-y mpl. Also, the HUI has corrected far less than the historical average of similar advances. Then there's also the CoT problem--OI rising, not falling. The significance of the EFP situation may be dawning in the minds of traders at hedge funds and big banks.

Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 2:23am
Pete
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A quick view of silver

Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 5:29am zman
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"Wealth is a bell curve- A

"Wealth is a bell curve- A few with a lot at the top and the masses with little at the bottom"

Well, that's how it is today, but that's not true in recent decades in the US. It was a much more even distribution. http://apps.urban.org/features/wealth-inequality-charts/ So it doesn't serve any purpose to make a generalization without the facts.

"vote for me and I will give you rich person's money"

No, it's about vote for me and I will return to past distributions of wealth that benefited the vast majority of US citizens.

"where do you get a job when all the bad people are gone"

Is this some sort of argument for the status quo or something? If we don't have massive wealth inequality, there won't be employment? I have news for you, The Elite can stay rich and the peasants can have a decent standard of living at the same time. Do you remember the 1950's, 60's, 70's and 80's????

[/quote]

For a start, I am UK not USA. I grew up and lived in an area known for “King Cotton.” In its time a really wealthy area. I mean really wealthy for all who lived there.

As there were few bosses and lots and lots of workers, politicians found it best to be socialists, communists, whatever, but call themselves Labour – For the people. Yep, they gained power all through the area.

We even became famous for our “Dark Satanic Mills.”

My parents (who owned a shop) could not speak of the fact that I had passed the 11+ exam..... I heard them actually lie, that I had not.

Grammar schools were for the top 10% …... They were all closed the year after I left.

I could take you for a 1 week tour of the area and show you all the great things the people had ….. what a fantastic place. Well actually 50% has been compulsory purchased, demolished and a cheap concrete lumps built, and if you want to start a business – You rent off the council..... The new Surf-System.

Long ago they closed the Abattoir, Wholesale Fruit and Veg Market, Market Gardener's Market and Wholesale Fish Market. We had a market (for the people) by Royal Charter – they all went. Self employed do not vote Labour.

Millions of shops closed, who all employed people. That vacuum opened the way for supermarkets and National Minimum Wage.... NOT the other way round.

Well I could do 10 pages, but I am busy.

Now we all get to pay 30% income tax, with a lump of National Insurance. Then everything has 20% VAT......... I make that over 50% of your wage gone. As there are no good jobs locally, you get in your car and spend 1 hour plus driving 20 plus miles to work.

(A little context) When I got my first car I paid 2/6d per gallon for petrol. My friend brags that he only paid 2/- for a gallon. (For Colonials) 2/6d is the same as £0.12 …. for a gallon. It now costs over £6..... $7.80

For the evil rich the 30% becomes 40% + NI ….... My wife is one of the evil rich. She is neither evil or rich. So all but 70% (inc VAT) of what she earns goes to support those that don't want to work.

So Mr Marx …. be very careful what you wish upon your fellow Merrycans.

10 Commandments – Just like gold – It has worked for thousands of years.

P.S. US of A is the least socialist – Look at price of gold everywhere else. (Gold the antidote to nutball governments)

Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 6:58am
Green Lantern
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There is a big difference

There is a big difference between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth warrens tax the rich and Zmans suggestion. The politicians use it as a conqueror and divide strategy. Zman is just acknowledging the huge inequities in the system and other libertarian minded individuals echoing that sentiment yang, not libertarian, wants to tax google and amazon and give you a 1000 per month

To bring down the ratio of inequities between the 1% and yourself, vote for Bloomberg He and other billionaires of his ilk have a plan to kill some of you off: depopulation, and un sponsored global warming

I hear the medicinal pot is good shit The forced vaccines more potent and with Trump fast tracking Monsanto/Bayer products, the ratio between the billionaire class and you will come down to a more acceptable level

the laws and regulations passed by the political class on behalf of their corporate cronies and banksters are designed to keep you down and the man in charge

Ben Hunter, rabid libertarian, wrote the same idea that Zman did and got a lot of flack by other libertarians

Ben is an eloquent, and very creative writer with some good insights

His conclusion is the best way to resolve the disease in the system is and I quote

”BURN IT THE F$&k DOWN”

All of it

when he writes it, it comes off less vulgar than when I write it

I would describe the nature of the cycle that’s hitting in 2020 and lasting through 2032 as The Burn It down cycle with a nuke cycle

If you are watching what is going on in Hong Kong, these zhonguo people have taken Hunt literally They are actually burning the place down malls, buses, colleges and people too

Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 9:21am
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Update

Some observations...price overshot top fester-fan a little on the way down. And if (a big if I know) this consolidation is over and price rises again, waves 2 and 4 would be almost identical in length (70, 69 days).

https://www.tradingview.com/x/piZKbg9E/

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 9:39am UncleFester
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OMG Uncle, I had been

OMG Uncle, I had been thinking they "should" be same or similar length. I have not counted the days, just the distance on a chart. I was thinking there are about 10 days to go. I even thought there would be a pop up and back down before the end.

Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 5:08pm
Green Lantern
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Ahh yes, the ole Hendrick

Ahh yes, the ole Hendrick Payoff Index. I think that was mentioned a few days back by AM. Put it the ole notebook and thought I'd give it a go. The lesson: There is always a first time for everything and here it is.

It tracks Volume, Open Interest, and Price all in one click. .

The way I read this is all three are creeping lower and lower. Lower highs in volume, price and OI and lower lows. I speculate that is not an indicator of an intermediate bullish scenario?

Moving on.

We spent 20 plus days from October 3rd to November 1st in a side way market. Before the market made a decision to go down.

A market can either go up, or it can go down, or it can go sideways to up, sideways to down, basically sideways.

What are the reasons a market goes sideways?

They use the news as a way to buy or sell the market depending on what they want you to do. Fake news is nothing new and all those old books talk about it.

Markets can move sideways for other reasons. After a bullish climax or a bearish selling climax when the insiders are filling their warehouse or emptying their warehouse as the market makes up it's mind on which direction it wants to take. .

Lastly because markets move sideways when they run into old areas of price, where traders have been locked into weak positions in previous moves.

Support and resistance becomes well defined. The ceiling-resistance, the floor, support, the basement, when the market has breached support and now support has become resistance.

Like this.

Since we last talked about volume, the market has breached support and is now in a congestion area in a lower price area.

These sideways markets are also designed to wash you out. It's basically a psych ops.

Todays reversal, was on average to low volume but closed above another support level which means the market is holding for now and we want it to hold above todays session low to ensure the bounce.

We are still well below the September 9th high for 11 weeks. It reversed it's down trend in October and rallied to Nov 1st and has been in a cyclical downtrend ever since.

Based on all those cycle charts that have been posted here, and there have no been alot compared to any place else publicly on the web that I can find because no such charts anywhere else that you the cycles so plainly, we could descent for the next 10 weeks until the next major cycle inflection. It's a high probability

The 1200ish support line I drew in black is a very valid possibility considering the amount of time the market can descend to reach it's next inflection. Obviously, we can regain territory, and then entertain a bullish scenario but the current indicators, and there are bunches of them.

There should be a couple of highs this week but as we move to later in the month, and early december look like we have significant wide range periods with lows.

There are two ways to be deep in a forest. One is without a compass trying to find your way out. The other is tracking your whereabouts, having good sense of direction. Two people can be in the same situation, but one is lost an the other is not victim to his circumstances. The one with a compass has no real worries.

I don't mind if gold goes lower as long as I have a sense of the general direction, best times to expect a change of wind, because as long as I have been following markets, I know things will change and there are opportunities to make money. However, if you are more into less liquid ways to be involved in gold and silver (just as bad. absent sentiment), you just have to suck it up a little longer.

But there is a large segment of the metals analysts saying we are approaching a never to return bull market very shortly.

I don't see it. I simply don't. With all the tools I've been collecting, I can't apply any to see that we are at the crux of a multi-year bull market in metals and commodities, JUST YET.

If you have ever been in the performing arts, you really really want more time to prepare. So I don't mind the blowing off of steam in ALL MARKETS everywhere so I can get my bearings.

There is two way the indexes can come down. Most people are expecting a hard, straight down. But I have to wonder, if they are engineering a soft landing over time. They keep squeezing just a little more out by fractions.

Wed, Nov 13, 2019 - 5:36pm
Green Lantern
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Just yesterday a "deal was

Just yesterday a "deal was close" , and POTUS said "China is Dying For A Deal.." now this.. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/us-china-trade-talks-hit-snag-over-agric... The banksters and their MSM cronies use the news to buy and sell the market. Did you notice the inflection point in AU?

This for me confirms the reversal for those making a swing trade here and completes your Elliott Wave pattern back to the September high, for what should be a decent trade without too many bumps until gold reaches it's fib retracement level. then back to the accumulation phase for the bankers.

But this is how the Bankers restart the distribution phase (selling stuff to you, emptying their warehouse). Going to bounce you around in a sideways to up pattern, and then wash and repeat. You'll have taken profit but it will trap unsuspecting traders in a bad position and drop the market into a new price range. That's what the literature says. Thus, reading the ticker because Livermore wasn't caught in too many down drafts, says the manual. The amazing thing about it is it correlates with the astro factors, you never hear a Elliot Wave person yelling, they sucked me in, and fibonacci retracements usually work just as well. That makes the bankers cyclical too. using the news to buy and sell. Standard Practice for ages! Just can't figure out if POTUS is actually helping the "woke" traders by giving such signals or he is just playing his crowd and totally clueless that majority of savvy traders figured it out. Guess I'll have to wait for the book.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 4:52am CongAu
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CongAu wrote:

CongAu wrote:

OMG Uncle, I had been thinking they "should" be same or similar length. I have not counted the days, just the distance on a chart. I was thinking there are about 10 days to go. I even thought there would be a pop up and back down before the end.

I will clarify my “ten more days.”

I tried to impose an EW solution on the chart – and it was wrong.

So I re-did it and it was wrong again ….. do it again – and again.

I am now at the point where Wave C is a 5 waves down.

As soon as you say Wave 4 cannot go above Wave 1, then you cannot have done a Wave 4.

Ergo the last low of $1445 could only have been Wave 3 and this rise cannot go above (about) $1480. If all that comes true we will have done Wave 4.

I have marked Wave 5 bottoming $1430. It does not have to go that low, but is a (not so) simple guess.

A reasonable time for this is about 10 days.

EW works when it works and when it does not …......

Having done EW on gold (and I only do gold) for the last 17 years, I have got a few home made rules. One of them says that $1445 is low enough for Wave C. $1430 is a reasonable distance below 3. W5 can finish early if it wants.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 10:50am
zman
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Wealth Tax

OK, here's my opinion on this subject. The Elite didn't care about redistributing the wealth from the peasants with the Reagan tax cuts, global trade agreements, shipping millions of jobs out of the US, allowing tens of millions of immigrants into the US and now with a massive corporate tax cut.

Now that the wealth inequality is at a 90 year high the billionaires are claiming "capitalism" is still in the interest of the peasants and a wealth tax is "theft". If The Elite didn't care how they stole the money to produce the inequality, why should I care what it takes to bring it back into proper balance? If a wealth tax is needed, SO BE IT. If a UPI is needed, SO BE IT. If Medicare For All is needed, SO BE IT. Myself like most others, just want a return to where we were in the 1950's, 60's, 70's and 80's. I don't care what it takes to bring is there, just like The Elite didn't care to bring us where we are today.

Zman, you're advocating for socialism and the destruction of capitalism!!!! No, I'm advocating for economic nationalism and a return to the best days for the US working class. If that means taxing the very rich and more social programs for peasants, then SO BE IT.

I didn't destroy the US middle class, I didn't destroy capitalism, I didn't create the massive inequality, I didn't create a generation of debt slaves, I didn't ship industry into third world slave labor nations, I didn't allow tens of millions of illegals into the domestic economy, I didn't give the very rich massive tax cuts. Now that a wealth tax is NEEDED to bring some imbalances back into line, it's NOT my fault!!!

So Sanders' and Warren are actually correct, we should be taxing the wealth of these people. Just because it's against some ideology you may hold tight, it doesn't mean it's not a great idea. What I'm finding is that most people hold on to out dated ideologies just from their big ego. The world is moving at a very fast pace and the peasants for getting screwed BIG TIME. The "capitalism" of the 1980's is NEVER coming back, it's over.

It's funny seeing the peasants STILL defending billionaires and "capitalism" because of ideology, The Elite are sold you on another religion against your own interests. The only thing holding on to it is their egos, time to let it go.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 10:59am
Green Lantern
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Al Jolson - By The Light Of

Al Jolson - By The Light Of The Silvery Moon 1946

By=Buy.

Check all your silver charts and mines.

Anybody notice that Silj has been stronger than GDXJ

Since the people here that trade are swing traders and the long term analysis in the metals has no sex appeal.

This strategy has worked 100% in 2019.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 11:54am zman
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Phew Zman, get a grip on your

Phew Zman, get a grip on your envy.

the peasants for getting screwed BIG TIME.” Do your friends know you think of them as Peasants.

If The Elite didn't care how they stole the money to produce the inequality”

Did they actually steal their money ? Can you prove that.

It is all just a clever ploy to get voted into power.

There are 2 parts (Not halves) to this Socialism. (I will now speak of the UK, because I don't follow Merricans )

There is the Socialist Elite, Educated at Oxford / Cambridge etc etc.

Let's do ex-PM Tony Blair. At last count he had about 4 multi-million pound houses. His net worth is about £80,000,000. He is a qualified Barrister and so is his wife. What on earth has he got to do with the working classes.

Ex-PM Gordon Brown - Phd at Edinburgh (Scotland's most elite university). Became advisor to Pimco (largest bond dealer). He has his hands in other international bodies – He will be OK financially.

My nearest Socialist MP – again a Barrister, flooded the town with immigrants and on leaving office, move a few hundred miles away, to a “nice area.” His wife was given a seat on the board of British Airport Authority – Then they sold it to Spain (Yes really).

We had a Socialist leader locally. While in office, he lived in a little terraced house, with “his people.” When he retired from office, he just sank away from sight – To a big detached house, in its own grounds, down by the river.

NONE have anything to do with your peasants – They are simply using them as a conduit to their own wealth and power.

Go through some of your own Socialist leaders, do it your self.

Check the Clinton's wealth, then Obama. When you find what a mug you are being taken for, you will be embarrassed.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 12:45pm
Green Lantern
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Tweet

Tweet

Conversation

Oh my goodness. Identical to yesterday. Turn on The Machines and let them do their business. Note the time stamp. #AlgoHell

Turd,

Gann intra-day harmonics. We be trading with them. I tried to tell everyone.

Any religious Jews here that pray intraday?

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 1:16pm
zman
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@CongAu

"get a grip on your envy" I pointed out the massive change to wealth inequality in the US and the methods used to produce that change. That's not envy, it's pointing out the statistical FACTS on the issue.

"Did they actually steal their money?" Indirectly, yes they did. Do the very rich not buy off the government for favorable policies which enhanced their wealth? Why do global corporations spend tens of billions in Washington every year? Did the peasants vote for a corporate tax cut that gave trillions to The Elite at the expense of the working class? Again, did the peasants vote for their jobs to move to China and Mexico? NO. Did they vote for 20-30 million illegals to dilute their wages? NO. Did they pass the Reagan tax cuts which started this whole massive inequality? NO. Did they have central banks print over $20 trillion to flow into assets mainly owned by the Top 1%? NO.

So since Obama and other leaders are sell outs, there's no way to reverse wealth inequality? That doesn't make any sense. Guess what? They're own by The Elite.

BTW, Obama and the gang you listed are NOT "socialists", they're capitalists that favor some social programs, BIG DIFFERENCE. They're also phonies that are sponsored by The Elite.

Do you really think I like the Obama's and Warrens' of the world? Not at all, but I do like the concept of a wealth tax in this current environment. Would I like the concept of a wealth tax in 1985? NO, because it wasn't needed because it was a completely different environment.

Trickle down economics has been a complete failure to the working class for the past 40 years, this is a statistical FACT, it's not up for debate. What your solution are reversing the current trend?

I have never seen so many people that are being destroyed by billionaires that will defend these same billionaires and their wealth. It's all about ego and ideology. It's time to admit trickle down economics is a proven failure, the statistics don't lie.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 3:54pm
Green Lantern
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Obama and Clinton are SOOOO

Obama and Clinton are SOOOO not socialists. That's the crap they feed their minions. And then the opposing side holds up for you so you can join their team and have a boogie man to yell at. The truth is actually worse than the lie.

Obama and Clinton are OLIGARCHS. Besides Trump, Obama might be the second most powerful OLIGARCH in politics today. The Shadow dancer

I said months back that the world of politics and voting citizens would never enter a dialectic conversation about politics again until Clinton and Obama disappeared. Well, they didn't and they won't. Since then dialectic conversation never returned to TF forums. We are the Zeitgeist of the times

What's amazing the supporters of the Obama cult, don't see it, not sure the otherside does either.

If Obama was a good socialists, after complaining about the strest and hardship of the job, he would have returned to the farm to help the cause. That happened in the old days, but not today. You return from politics LOADED. AOC won't return to her old walk up apartment but might find a nice luxury condo on Park Ave. Jamie Dimon's street.

Well look at Obamas' farm. Nice huh? So much for an altruistic human looking to help others. He made that loot off the back of you. Not fair and square. Through manipulation of the collective psyche.

The reason people voted for Obama was because he promised to do away with this stuff and take on Wall Street, NOT take it in. Obama was the setup for Trump in the area of persuasion. He's no slouch and that's when I started paying attention to NLP again when I saw how good Obama was at hypnotism. Who knew 8 years later, his skill set would be surpassed?

They use the word socialism to hook their audience but money is dying. And without money, socialism doesn't work. You can't pay for programs w/out money. They know this but the public doesn't.

Zmans' solution is not my solution but it's offered in good spirit. Hunt calls it rent seeking. I have another name for it that Turd might not appreciate. So we will stick with Oligarchs got their rent seeking share via the manipulation of tax, trade, and monetary policy and so did the managerial class. A true tax on them would wipe all their rent seeking policis out and then, we wouldn't need to tax them.

I suggested you might want to take a look at Epsilons Theory discussion of the same discussion you two are having.

so to make things easier, I'll just lay it right here as invitation to contemplate somebody who has already contemplated the subject.

If you're a big MAGA supporter, let me provide a spoiler. You won't like Hunt. You might even hate him because he redefine's the MAGA movement in a way...well that's not too flattering.. But he gives Obama and Clinton the same treatment. So take a taste, if the flavor doesnt' appeal to you, spit it out.

But if you're the type of person that dislikes all Oligarchs and nudgers, and is concerned about your future, you might find something here for you.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-rake/#.Xcw4X_XGvi5.twitter

"One day we will recognize the defining Zeitgeist of the Obama/Trump years for what it is: an unparalleled transfer of wealth to the managerial class."

we all seem to have a different sense of what the defining Zeitgeist is of the time. Well, there was a forum set up for it. But in short, the above is another opinion on the subject. Mine is a bit different than AM and Hunt, not because either is wrong. Not in the slightest. I just think there is a bigger umbrella that all the smaller Zeitgeists fit under. One is a more social definition and the other a more financial definition.

Right now-Obama/Trump are defining the themes of the discussion for maybe 90% or more of the public follow. But both fear the samething....the GREAT WAKEUP. Those were all those posts by AM on all the nudging, all the Rotten Tomato's,the great wave that will wake up gold for real. Armstrongs calls it his ECM Pi cycle but that's a cycle rabbit hole that might be boring.

When everybody wakes up and says, they all been pulling my strings. Gold will start rising for REAL. Until then, it's take whatever swing trades you can and turn the fiat into whatever you fancy.

That's why we're NOT in a gold bull market. And that's why 1430 will not likely hold because the last year of discussions. You wonder why I wonder if anybody REALLY pays attention. I know you're reading but the absence of reiteration often leaves me scratching my head.

Thu, Nov 14, 2019 - 5:33pm
zman
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Well said GL and trust me, a

Well said GL and trust me, a wealth tax is the LAST thing I EVER would have thought of to help reverse this massive inequality. I wanted economic nationalism, I wanted economic opportunity for all US citizens, I wanted a normal credit cycle available for all businessmen, I wanted a government not taken over by corporations. I wanted a government that didn't try to destroy the middle class just to help just the .0001 of 1%. But guess what? None of that is changing.

IF anyone thinks a market EVENT is going to save the peasants and bring in a form of justice to this inequality, they're delusional. It's never going to happen. Market events will not happen, those days are long over. Gold isn't going to save investors, it that was the case it would have moved many years ago.

The status quo is the new normal, I suggest to people to just accept it for what it is. There's nothing people can do other than hit the streets, but the US population is much too divided and stupid for such a movement.

Fri, Nov 15, 2019 - 1:35am
Pete
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Gold chart from 2010

Here's a daily continuation gold chart from 2010 with a little personal story. It might apply to today's market (see next post).

https://i.imgur.com/hhC0ZsW.png

Fri, Nov 15, 2019 - 1:39am
Pete
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Present time daily continuation gold

Here's the current price chart with same AR method applied.

https://i.imgur.com/dFVuEHb.png

It should be mentioned that there's no need to nail the low, because probably (as at the August 2016 low, and the May 2019 low) there will be a base-building process that allows one to enter.

Fri, Nov 15, 2019 - 2:03am
Pete
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Dec gold 60m

My last post before bed...a simple short setup at key resistance (Hxh). My guess is that this will decline to test the daily/weekly chart MLH (green line on this 60m rendition). https://www.tradingview.com/x/bra61SsW/
Fri, Nov 15, 2019 - 4:53am zman
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Socialist outbursts

Well Zman, I thought I was replying to the rants of a child with an overdeveloped sense of entitlement.

I explained that all the “leaders” are not socialist, but are there for the wealth and power. They gain power by pretending that they will give you more (than you are entitled to). There is not enough money to ever give you what they say they will.

I sound like I hate socialists – which I do. What I did not make clear is that I actually hate all politicians. We (here) have seen the damage they do and the first step in breaking free is Brexit. Which they will not do.

There is a secret to telling when they are lying to you, if you look carefully, their lips move.

From the way you ignored everything I said, it is clear that you are not one of the public that has fallen for the lies.

Do you actually have political affiliations ?

I am here for the gold, not to be sold socialist propaganda. I have seen it all, up close and personal, from those with a Phd in the subject.

I will just stick with the 10 commandments.