The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Oct 17, 2019 - 11:41pm
silver66
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not sure if this article is best here

or on the new forum AM created. Came across this blog and thought the group would find interesting (neither endorse nor dispute :-))

https://straightlinelogic.com/reviews/nonfiction/buy-high-and-sell-low-b...

excerpt

Social mood trends, regulated by their own internal, or endogenous, dynamics and impervious to external influences, motivate social actions. Social mood is the cause; social actions are the effects. Stock markets rise and economies expand because of rising social mood.

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Oct 18, 2019 - 2:38am
Pete
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HUI

The pattern in HUI suggests a bottom has been made. It might be just A of a larger ABC of course.

I'd like to see more of a % pullback of the rally, and lower daily RSI, to be convinced. I think gold will have to be pushed a bunch lower (more shorts covered) to get HUI to move lower too. Gold has hardly retraced.

Should there be lower lows, I'm buying some established miners that have outperformed gold since Aug 2018 low and May 2019 low: AEM, AU, AUY, KL, RGLD, and WPM.

Fri, Oct 18, 2019 - 6:30am silver66
Solsson
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silver66 wrote:

silver66 wrote:

https://straightlinelogic.com/reviews/nonfiction/buy-high-and-sell-low-b...

The picture on my laptop at the moment is a bunch of gnu's lol and the module I am coding right now is called Distribution. Great synchronization there Silver66. However a crash ala 1929 next week is highly unlikely. Is the fuse about to be ignited soon (next week) and we will not experience the "detonation" until next year, as usual I am only guessing of course.

You, Green and Argentus are all part of my enlightenment/alchemical puzzEL, that's crystal clear to me since a year or two, probably the whole setup thread to be honest. Step up to be part of Setup!

Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 2:46am
Pete
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$gold daily/market geometry

What I'm seeing at the moment in $gold (continuation daily chart). The fit of the lines is good, better than in Dec gold.

My circle is wishful thinking and not a prediction. But since corrections often end at reaction lines when earlier pivots have been made on them (referring to the Babson ladder), and also often at the ml or h of the dominant fork (which I believe I've drawn), then who knows?

A Sunday-Monday push lower (Friday was really weak in the futures) might upset the HUI and prevent a confirmation-by-breakout over the important daily downtrend lines of the declining wedge. Time will tell.

Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 4:25am
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The thing about gold is that

The thing about gold is that it's still above support (long term support). This is a more bullish indication than most Elliott Wave interpretations of the pattern in the gold chart support. But EW is working off a wave B, or 4 final upthrust prior to a C or 5 impulsive down. So EW is ultimately bearish in the very long term ie after the rally of the last couple of years ends/is ended.

But what if this is a raggedy topping structure? In general, cycles are more bullish than EW. The big cycles of the recent decade tend to be about 2 years and double that in duration. And there is this: the 2015 significant low for gold is about 4 years in the rear view mirror now.

That makes me look towards timing of cycles, and pivots. Uncle Fester brought up this a few days ago. I think he is right to look for more insight into this.

Well, if that's so has it topped yet? Or .... will/did it invert?

I think the matter is rightly reduced to looking at the medium term pivots and observing which end up with gold over and which pivots with gold under the relevant price leven/trend line. And the sum of the medium term pivots will be the construction blocks that make into a longer term conclusion.

For USD-Gold followers, the point is very easily missed. People elsewhere around the planet are seeing a different story from US centric observers. So US centric observers need to ask this question: is XAUUSD FX the opposite side of the seesaw from EVERYTHING-ELSEUSD FX? Or conversely, is the XAUUSD FX merely the last FX component to fall in line with all others?

I recently junked a lot of gold analysis, and during the past 2 weeks I reworked much to see if recent events validate or invalidate older conclusions. What vagueness has been clarified, and what clear assumptions have now become murky and need to be devalued in the estimation of gold's situation?

So here is one of the takeaways I came up with. Sorry I don't have an internet-sanitized chart so it's in text.:

Gold is where it was in end 2011, Feb 2012 and end 2012-early 2013 versus the capital accounts of the biggest movers and shakers and nudgers of them all.

Now that won't make much sense until you go get yourself a chart eg of gold-US variant with weekly-monthly timeframe and see what those times were all about. I recommend ProRealtime or Netdania.

Remember I speak of both price and time equally when you are looking at the chart, and when this pivot, for it is a big one, will likely resolve from jousting knights in contest, into a victor and loser situation.

This is probably best not set out in simple algo-readable words in public arena. But you can all see what I'm talking about with the minimum of effort. Some will see it better than others. If you feel on the wrong side of that, look longer - things begin to fall into place because the biases fade as minutes pass. Sort of like the calming effects of watching a complete sunrise or sunset.

Nobody takes the time to do good stuff.

If you are very attention span deficient or electronic device (interruption) controlled - consider watching a moonrise, with your device reminding you to take another look every 30 minutes. Going about your evening distractions (work) in-between. A few days of that might bring calmness and clarity.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - 7:38am
silver66
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Hey AM thanks for above post

Solson, funny how one thing leads to another. There was a post of main street with a link to an article by Malcolm Gladwell. I clicked through and after reading went to the home page of the sight. There was an article on Irish Mythology and within the article the author chose to describe 4 time periods as "cycles".

given all the Irish stuff AM has nudge us with to learn about cycle I found that choice of words by the author interesting

https://www.thoughtco.com/irish-mythology-4768762

It is 1 degree here this morning, glorious clear sun rise. Hope everyone has a great day.

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 5:45am
ivars
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Did You know this?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30015061

Solar energy at birth and human lifespan.

Quote:
CONCLUSIONS: There is a statistically significant inverse relationship between exposure to solar energy at birth and average human lifespan. Solar energy by some mechanism alters the epigenome at birth, but the effect of higher solar energy becomes apparent after the age of natural selection.

It is maximums at birth that reduce human lifespan, by about 8(!) years compared to those born in low UV periods-around solar cycle activity minimums. We are in a minimum right now.

Any future development must involve changing something which people have never challenged up to the present,and which will not be shown up by an axiomatic formulation. P.A.M.Dirac
Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 8:17am
Green Lantern
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Every 30 minutes. Maybe a

Every 30 minutes. Maybe a fraction less for optimal attunement to your biorhythms?

Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 12:30pm
Solsson
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Watching, Fantastic Four from

Watching, Fantastic Four from 2015. Dr Doom's homeland is

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latveria

https://tv-tabla.se/tabla/tv6/p/fantastic-four/201910201700/

and then ivars shows up and he is from Latvia haha ...

Got my new watch from Hertz-Direct post office and the collect number was 4794. 47 the sun turn number and 94 is two times 47. Also got a vibration with Pi=314 and Vesica Piscis. It feels that something is about to be born. The question is what?

Played a round of golf with my old friend from Finland and when he watched his golfwatch for the first time, he said 153m left to the hole. Next hole was a par4 with the distance 315m. That is also vesica piscis 153.

Worked a couple of hours today and when I run the name uploader tool it showed 3154 objects traversed. That is both Pi=314 and vesica piscis 153 at the same time, something is brewing here folks.

No brexit this weekend, interesting number that wanted to postpone the decision 322. Where have I seen that number before?

Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 4:09pm silver66
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Solar UV radiation

ivars,I did not know this, but given the huge sample size and the large difference observed the results have to be very significant provided there is no methodological error.

I do know that UV irradiation causes DNA damage, I studied how that damage was repaired for my Master's thesis. I also found that the DNA of dividing cells was about 1000 times more susceptible to damage than non-dividing cells. This was my finding in the fungus I was studying, but the effect should be general for all organisms.

The period of maximum cell division occurs in infants and young children. I suspect that the lifespan difference might well be largely due to an increased cancer risk and consequent earlier death.

BTW: What is this doing here? Oh, I guess it's weekend.

“Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” ― Albert Camus
Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - 5:58pm ivars
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IVARS--- SPN AND LIFE SPAN

That is something very new to my thinking. Born in March 1952 I HAD! to look.

SSN in 1952 was around 10. Every low solar energy output.

Sun Spot Groups in 1952 was around 2. Very Very low solar energy output.

A while back GL did a quick read of my hour of birth, roughly 1.30 AM 3-3-52.

I recall Taurus, Neptune and Pluto figured into my arrival time.

63rd day of 1952 303 remained in the year. MCMLII. A leap year. Solsson?

Pisces too boot

The year of the Water Dragon by the Chinese calendar and Zodiac

The solar sunspot energy minimum for this time period was particularly low, reaching its nadir in 1955 both for total sunspots and groups. It was dramatic low period compared to the period 1910-2010 This century showed 1917-1918 and 2009-2010 being just a tad lower than 1955.

SSN and SSG ramped down and back up a little more quickly off the 1955 nadir but the 3-5 years on either side of 1955 showed very low sunspot and the correspondent UV level

I guess that means I'll live to be 90,3 years or maybe 88.1 yrs or 105.5.

Moral to this

Keep stackin' gold

and

Don't Let The Old Man in (Toby Keith and the Eastwood movie, The Mule Clint Eastwood was born May 31 1930. That was a low SSN and SSG too.

AGXIIK

Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 8:16am AGXIIK
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AGXIIK wrote: I guess that

AGXIIK wrote:
I guess that means I'll live to be 90,3 years or maybe 88.1 yrs or 105.5 ..... Moral to this .... Keep stackin' gold.
Well we use generalities to make demographic forecasts. Is there anything boomers vote for that will change when the bell curve of boomers shifts to the right enough so that the hump shifts to a different plane? Is there anything boomers buy as an inflation/dislocation hedge that the following generation do not? Any size house that the demographic preference will swing towards, or away from? Any implications for real estate, or refurbishing big houses into flats/apartments? The answers may give insight into what is wanted that will be wanted less, or wanted more.
argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 8:50am
AGXIIK
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AM Your comment carried an entire library of thinking,

problems, concerns, solutions and imponderables into one short statement. On a personal level we look at what the next 20 years might bring in our decision making process. On the most personal basis our choices are generally to zig when everyone zags. It's worked out pretty well despite a few speed bumps and pit falls.

At present time the boomers, as a defined age that will be become history and have a historical name tag, we are the consumer and wealth class; the largest population cohort in the US and most of the western world, plus Japan.

Our name implies the boom created as we came of age, gradually replacing the Greatest Generation, a population more accustomed to work and thrift. Other countries likely call their aging population something else but the aging of this, our generation, is shifting the world in ways that are not beneficial to the upcoming generations.

We consume, therefore we are.

It's not the Age of Enlightenment.

Or the Age of Reason.

Even with the bottomless well of information available at our fingertips

Maybe the Age of Sloth.

Or the Age of Entertainment.

Maybe even the Age of the Great Slog.

Depending on a particular Boomer's position in their cohort.

Slouching towards the great beyond, do we have redemption in our ever-increasing consumerism in the Age of Gluttony.

Will that 3,000,000 square mile mid ocean spot, the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, be our epitaph? I recycle, therefore I am.

We're the first generation that consumed on a scale that is unsustainable, driving entire economies to complete reliance on our consumption habits. Medical services in the US cost around 20% of the GDP

Maybe it'll be the Age of the Great Screech. As brakes are applied to slow consumption of everything that the next generations will need to simply survive.

I think the boomers boom will fade to an echo in less than 20 years as we shuffle off the mortal coil, having lived our lives in an era of maximum consumerism. This age is accompanied by great levels of innovation and revolution, designed to increase consumption with a hyper-speeded production and efficiency

More and faster; smaller and better, more exciting and engrossing. It's still consumerism by another name.

Shift happens. Demographic shifts happen in the most profound ways.

These shifts come so fast it's hard to keep up, with head spinning at dizzying rate. What's that old saying? 'Stop the world I want to get off' Technology alone is coming at us far in excess of Moore's Law. Will tech flatten everything in it's path, turning us mortals into gray flat spots in the Mega Mall parking lot? Or pod dwellers cocooned in tiny homes, seldom seeing the outdoors, with autonomous Uber Eats cars and Amazon drones delivering everything we need in our role as high tech Eloi. Not my cup of Earl Grey.

Whether the choices, supplies, availability and quality of stuff the boomers wanted and now no longer want; will that be the lot of the Millennials as well as Gen X, Y and Z will that desire drive the world. We'll be coat tailing that demand. Making the right choices or, at least those that seem to be the best for us today, is a daunting task

Two things come to mind in that regard

How does one plan for one's own financial well being over the next 20 years?

How do we plan so that we can pass something on to the next generation.

Maybe the best pieces of wisdom passed on to us by our parents, products of the depression, was Do not run out of money. What we pass on to the next generations is going to be very different. It's desireability and utility may find an audience that does not applaud our choices. Maybe. Or maybe it's something passed on that's less tangible. Something that brings greater utility to the next Gens. Don't run out of planet. It's the only one we have. Or as a good friend once said Remember, keep a clean planet. You never know when you're going to get run over by God. Time for this Dole Geezer fool to dial off and jet to the medico for ANOTHER semi-invasive process, part of that coming of age that someone assured us will extend our of lives. More time to buy more stuff. If one person epitomizes the Boomer generation it's Elizabeth Warren, trying to speak for the new generations. 57 years ago Everett Dirkson, a congressman, said (paraphrased) 'A billion here; a billion there and pretty soon we're talking about real money' Today it's a trillion here; a trillion there and we sure as hell are not talking about real money. Kind of makes me appreciate my stack of gold even that much more Thank you for all your musings on these pages. They are always appreciated

AGXIIK

Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 11:47am
zman
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"Central Banks Are Out of

"Central Banks Are Out of Ammo- UN Head Demands Immediate Fiscal Stimulus Too Save World From Crisis"

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/central-banks-are-out-ammo-un-head-d...

Well, the UN or peasants can demand all the "fiscal stimulus" they want, but with over $250 trillion of global debt at very low interest rates, it's NOT coming!!!

The Elite will most likely call some program down the road "fiscal stimulus", but it won't stimulate anything. Interest rates need to stay low and no policy can change that outcome.

Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 6:48pm
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Can now search for comments

Can now search for comments across the site using the "Search Comments" link under the "+" menu at the top, the link in the mobile menu on phones, or directly here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/search-comments

Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - 9:04pm
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Kyle Bass with General Robert Spalding

China vs. the U.S. - Trade War to Cold War? (w/ Kyle Bass and Gen. Robert Spalding)
kentucky
Thu, Oct 24, 2019 - 2:56pm
Solsson
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Today is exactly 90years

Today is exactly 90years since the great crash of 1929

The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Stock Market Crash of 1929 or the Great Crash, was a major stock market crash that occurred in late October 1929. It started on October 24 ("Black Thursday") and continued until October 29, 1929 ("Black Tuesday"), when share prices on the New York Stock Exchange collapsed.

It was the most devastating stock market crash in the history of the United States, when taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its after effects.[1] The crash, which followed the London Stock Exchange's crash of September, signaled the beginning of the 12-year Great Depression that affected all Western industrialized countries.[2]

I think my calendar of metaphysics still works Jupiterday in 1929 and a Jupiterday today. Jupiter is a big planet.

Thursday is ruled by lucky Jupiter, the planet abundance and expansion, which makes it the perfect day to learn something new.

Fri, Oct 25, 2019 - 2:10pm
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Update

Real or false breakout...looks like we'll have to wait until next week to know for sure. Cheers, UF

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pK3R4Ls6/

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Sat, Oct 26, 2019 - 2:37am
Pete
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HUI

Here is Andrews evidence that HUI is in a W.3 higher: Monthly HUI

The prolonged W.2 can support a very large move up.

While in no way necessary, it is possible that a w. 2 running correction ended last week: Weekly HUI. If so, price should move easily higher. The form of the 7-week correction from the August high--progressively smaller declines and reactions in a 5 pivot move, seen on the weekly chart--often indicates a major pivot has been formed. The point decline is about equal to the prior correction from the Feb high (typical in a running correction). The bottom was made on the latest monthly ML.

We have a confirmed breakout above the 0-4 trend line of this decline at present on the daily and weekly charts.

Sat, Oct 26, 2019 - 8:15pm
Pete
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Dec Gold 60m

The dramatic fall from high prices on Friday brings up fears of a reversal of the breakout.

Much depends on what lines you believe constitute resistance. It's certainly not a bearish factor that price settled higher than Thursday.

At the 60m chart level the drop looks relatively benign, and even logical, especially given the reality of quick profits and a Sunday night to re-enter the fray if desired. Why stay long in this volatile, uncertain market over the weekend, especially when from overseas an attempt was made to break the upward trend (which failed)?

The turn higher from the mlh followed by hours of quieter trade is encouraging.