The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Oct 8, 2019 - 3:39pm
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I'll play the fundamentals game

A Who thinks that after the election the fed will be printing freshies?

B What are the relevant election dates for De, Fr, Ca, UK at which the establishment does not want to see UKIP, 5Star, AltDeut, et all consolidate and expand their existing parliamentary footprints?

C Are there bond cycles, regular periods of time, that would reach back inot the recent past and might project forwards into the future just a little bit that we might look at?

PS I cheated.

The last one isn't a fundamental strictly speaking - because cycles bridge the gap between technicals and funnymentals. Anyway how far back is that gold low?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Oct 9, 2019 - 7:59am
fahrenheit451
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Please don’t interact with Zman

For Gods sake the guy has been making the exact same post for a year. How many times do you need to hear the same thing. Just ignore him and he will only pop his head in to gloat to himself when the price of gold drops.

Hes been booted from fofoa and multiple sites for being a troll. You guys are getting played by a bored multi-millionaire in Silicon Valley.

Wed, Oct 9, 2019 - 10:37am fahrenheit451
zman
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fahrenheit451 wrote:

fahrenheit451 wrote:

For Gods sake the guy has been making the exact same post for a year. How many times do you need to hear the same thing. Just ignore him and he will only pop his head in to gloat to himself when the price of gold drops.

Hes been booted from fofoa and multiple sites for being a troll. You guys are getting played by a bored multi-millionaire in Silicon Valley.

Why don't you attack the argument and not the person? I've been here since day one just like you, deal with it.

If you disagree with what I'm suggesting, let's debate and maybe learn something from it. Are you open minded enough to deal with the reality that your investment thesis might be wrong?

Thu, Oct 10, 2019 - 4:39am
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I think Zman is interesting because ...

I think Zman is interesting because ...

... of two main features about his posts.

1) Zman comes here and puts out the "continuation scenario case". That is NOT opposite to my preferred long term (LT) scenario.

and

2) Zman uses fundamental facts, of structure not news, to build his case. (Correct me Zman if you are a she instead of a he, I work with what your username suggests)

So what do I mean by Structural fundamentals? Well, this is a way to categorize an argument that goes like this:

>> the fundamentals of this powerbase, and that overhanging debt, and the present course of events, etc ... are all a massive power pushing things everywhere in this direction, and therefore the forecast is for more movement in "this" direction<<

Now I tend to reply to Zman, drawing out some of his thoughts about certain strandsof his case, so we get to see his argument better. Even though I disagree on the usefulness of the technique used, I'm happy to see it used, to have a demonstration here in Setup, and let events play out.

By the way (BTW) if events do not play out to prove Zman correct, that would not in itself prove his technique is "wrong". It would merely be one (admittedly rather big) brick in a wall that would be required to become that proof someday later.

So am I sitting on the fence on this? Nope!

Let me explain:

First I want to say how I perceive Zman's arguments, his case, and technique all of which are different things in my eyes.

He may be right! Why would I debate that possibility? Stops are required in all trades, and I can be wrong on any or all of mine. Only time will prove Zman right or wrong, and even then there may be extenuating circumstances, complicating doubt, vagueness, etc. So I have no interest inaskingZman to shut up, go away, butif his posts were to become a dominant thing in Setup I might (in that case) privately ask him to dial it back a bit, shorten posts, summarize rather than expositing the full thesis. I'm sure you get my stance. he could refuse naturally and I could escalate, but I really doubt any of that is likely, I mena, we haven't rvrn started on that route, and I don't expect to.

So, if Zman is not right what then?

Then his case gets opened upfor post event debate with hindsight. Oooh that hurts. I exposemyself to the possibility all the time. (I try to not get caught out by fate!) But it does hurt less than losing money in the markets I'd propose.

SO how do I stand on Zman's technique?

This is the interesting part, for me.

There are trends of many lengthts. But there is a distrubution for trend length. eg decade long trends are rare-ish, weekly trends more numerous, and hourly trends begin duing many hours of the day and are more frequent than either of the prior examples given.

So, when is a trend most likely to reverse? When ti is older that's when. But that is a generalized, statistical answer. Like saying the average of the next person you meet will be "x" which is the average age of the nation. This has no relevance to the average of the next person you will encounter! If the average IQ of people is 95, the next person could be a dolt or a surgeon. You just don'tknow.

But "statistically" is a way to trade, and contains the advantage forevery winning trading system. On average, the wins pay off losses with a profit.

So long trends are better to get on early, and riskier as time passes and they age, (making more profits). Which is riskier in that case? To guess a new trend or to jump on a trend late, when that cause for it's existence is known?

Most traders are in the middle somewhere. It's a spectrum of trading system time/price change choice everybody makes. Zman is somewhat towards the late-ish end of spectrum, and I am somewhat towards the early-ish end of the spectrum. If Zman has truly picked unstoppable forces he will be right. If I have truly chosen an immovable mass to stop and reverse the unstoppable force I will be right. And everybody is in the spectrum too each in their particular niche according to their own research.

But there is this factor: when the cause of a trend is known, most of those who will "go" for that cause are already in the trade justified by it. If the cause is still "good" but the buyers are all "spent", what then?

If you didn'tget the implication contained in what I just said there, imagine 100 identical houses for sale, in an auction room of 99 buyers. Due to competition price rises per house as the houses sell off, right up to the 98th house. A rising trend! Demand greater than supply? No!

NOW - (A) what price does house #98 sell for? (B) How many bidders? (C) What about house #99? (D) Does house #100 sell? (E) What price direction for those particular sales?

There is a world of knowledge in that answer, and the application of it to markets wherein prices move upwards and downwards searching for activity.

What makes a trend turn? What makes a giant trend turn? What constitutes the immovable mass that will stop the unstoppable force every, single, time? What overcomes structural force in a massive economy?

Lack of consumption of the good in question.

Lack.

Nothing.

It takes NOTHING to stop corruption, neocons, communists, SJWS, empires.

But NOTHING is not "nothing". There is a big difference. After energy runs out. Entropy follows.

Like all the stuff that comes up here, it's meaningless until you get it.

Then you see it all around you. And it's real. At the limits of existence, most of everybody will always say "that's enough", and turn back. Sure, a few will fall off. That's life! The rest is a study of scale.

Now, I have some video editing to do for people who have been incredibly patient with me. I have many weeks of work to finish.

Afterwards I willl pull a chart or two from the Rhythm and Price vids, limit their form for ease of message, and share them here.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Oct 10, 2019 - 10:41am
zman
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Well said AM!!! I'm very

Well said AM!!! I'm very flexible with my viewpoints, if events change then I can change. I just call it the way I see it. I'm not married to any scenario or outcome. I could say more, but I won't at this point. Like I said, if anyone wants to discuss or debate my comments, I'm more than open to do so with no hard feelings.

Thu, Oct 10, 2019 - 1:28pm argentus maximus
ancientmoney
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AM on trends ending...

AM said: "So long trends are better to get on early, and riskier as time passes and they age, (making more profits). Which is riskier in that case? To guess a new trend or to jump on a trend late, when that cause for it's existence is known?"

Not many trends have been longer than the low interest rate trend we have been on for decades. Another trend that is long in the tooth is the one whereby bullion banks create precious metals supply in the futures market well beyond capacity to cough up physical.

Are those trends ending? The rising price of gold indicates that bullion banks and other institutions are recognizing a sea-change that is approaching, as we go to ZIRP, and maybe NIRP in the U.S. Treasuries/dollar reserve currency of the world:

"If the Fed introduces negative dollar rates, then distortions of time preference will take a catastrophic turn. All financial markets will move into backwardation, reflecting negative rates imposed on dollars. Remember, the only conditions where backwardation can theoretically exist in free markets are when there is a shortage of a commodity for earlier settlement than for a later one. Yet here are backwardation conditions being imposed from the money side. It leads us to one conclusion: if negative rates for the dollar are imposed on financial markets, they will almost certainly lead to a flight out of the dollar where deposits become taxed with negative rates, not into other currencies, but into all commodities and future claims upon them. The current situation, where since the 1980s derivatives have inflated commodity supply, thereby suppressing prices, will be reversed. The purchasing power of dollars will be undermined by an attempted flight out of money. And it is unlikely to be long before the difference between negative time preferences between dollars and mildly positive ones for everyday items promotes a similar flight out of retail bank deposits.

That is the black and white of it. But there is a grey area of close to zero rates, when they are less than the implied rate of interest on gold, because of its time preference. Here it should be noted that gold’s interest rate when sterling was on the gold standard generally varied between two and four per cent, using the yield on British Consols as proxy. The Fed fund rate is already testing the lower boundary for monetary gold’s historic time preference, and markets are now expecting the FFR to go lower still."

A very good article, which should be read by people interested in what is very likely coming, and soon, as evidenced by the Fed dumping hundreds of $billions into the repo markets:

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/negative-interest-...

Fri, Oct 11, 2019 - 10:19am
UncleFester
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Update

This captures my current thinking on swing trading Au. I'll be watching $1460 closely. Anyone have a cycle pivot time stamp for late October/early November? Cheers, UF

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jawW2KMX/

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Fri, Oct 11, 2019 - 4:42pm
Solsson
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time to hunt ...

time to hunt ...

Fri, Oct 11, 2019 - 5:36pm
zman
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More QE

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/not-qe-begins-fed-start-buying-60bn-bi...

It's a non-event at this point. Key markets could care less.

Sun, Oct 13, 2019 - 4:05am zman
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Deflation or deleveraging ?

Deflation or deleveraging ? Are they the same ?

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works." - Alan Greenspan, October 2008 WTF ! Now you tell us !!!
Sun, Oct 13, 2019 - 6:58pm UncleFester
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UncleFester wrote:

UncleFester wrote:

This captures my current thinking on swing trading Au. I'll be watching $1460 closely. Anyone have a cycle pivot time stamp for late October/early November? Cheers, UF

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jawW2KMX/

Use the traderview info/trend smart tool and draw a trend line between the August 2018 low and the September 2019 high.

Traderview gives you the count in days. Convert to weeks. It is a number divisible by 7. In this case it works perfectly, usually it doesn't because this cycle ranges, a little longer, a little shorter. But it's 90 degree change on a circle but that's another story. You'll see price has been manipulated PERFECTLY in perfect alignment with natural law. Sweet!! That's how they win. and we loose. They know.

Create a new "info" line and measure that 1/7th from the next day of the high.

Did you get October 24th?

There are alot of inflections coming this week. Multiple change of directions. Choppy weather. 10/24 based on past is a high volume trade. Usually jumps gaps and a low could arrive on Friday.

Support could become resistance any day this week, when a high inflects the next day to a low. That's if you choose the bearish scenario on your chart. I'm using 1464 on futures chart for support. Below that ZMANs' scenario remains in place for a little longer and based on some of the reversal levels I came up with, he gets a few more, see I told you so's.

-----------

2019 Solar minimum. Use the fuller 22 year cycle, not the shorter 11 year cycle.

2019 Trump impeachment fiasco. Subtract 22 years. William Jefferson Clinton impeachment. Subtract 22 years, but be loose, cycles are sometimes eliptical, Nixon.

When Andrew Jackson was impeached was it a solar minimum?

My advice to those of you who are running for President. Dont' run when the sun spot activity is low. People get nasty. Solar min=Psychopath Max

Sun, Oct 13, 2019 - 9:27pm
Green Lantern
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somebody had problems with my

somebody had problems with my directions.

Approximately 7 week cycle from the top brings us to October 24 and 25th for a possible low. There is a bullish scenario but it's going to have really bust through some tough resistance, and I don't see it happening. Most, likely, support becomes resistance and then we're looking at lower levels of resistance at numbers people might not be comfortable talking about.

Tue, Oct 15, 2019 - 7:56am Green Lantern
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24th of October is an

24th of October is an interesting day. I am not going to push it, I've been lucky since mid May, perhaps it's time to move out of precious ...

Mr Randomski is always bearish and he has been wrong for years, maybe this time is different?

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/free-alerts/the-many-alignin...

See the pennant formation for HUI a sharper angel at the top line compared to the lower line, I wonder what that is supposed to mean?

Tue, Oct 15, 2019 - 12:34pm Solsson
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

24th of October is an interesting day. I am not going to push it, I've been lucky since mid May, perhaps it's time to move out of precious ...

Mr Randomski is always bearish and he has been wrong for years, maybe this time is different?

https://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/free-alerts/the-many-alignin...

See the pennant formation for HUI a sharper angel at the top line compared to the lower line, I wonder what that is supposed to mean?

He's likely correct, the gold bulls have everything they wanted now- negative interest rates, exploding debt, a return to QE and a slowing global economy. The result- a strong US Dollar and no inflation. The fact of the matter is the bulls are going to start throwing in the towel when they realize it's nothing more than another failed bear market rally in gold.

The bankers set up the trap and the dumb money chased it like they always do. The unwinding of this massive speculation and short position hasn't even started yet.

The central bankers rule the world and there's nothing that is going to stop it. They control monetary, fiscal and tax policy. There is no such thing as an insurance asset class in this environment.

Tue, Oct 15, 2019 - 1:25pm
UncleFester
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Thanks

Thanks for the reply GL. Aesthetically, one more (5th) wave up would satisfy my current wave count and fill the April 2013 gap on the monthly scale. Can a market be aesthetically pleasing? Symmetric? Interesting food for thought.

Anyway, the intraday Au price swings have increased since June, the bull / bear tug-o-war has amplified a little. It will be interesting to see who wins this time.

Small swing trade disclosure = buy trigger at 1468 and stop loss at 1443 (spot)

Cheers, UF

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Tue, Oct 15, 2019 - 1:41pm zman
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The central bankers rule the

The central bankers rule the world and there's nothing that is going to stop it. They control monetary, fiscal and tax policy. There is no such thing as an insurance asset class in this environment.

zman, I often come away from your posts with the feeling that you are trying to convince yourself of your beliefs.

Tue, Oct 15, 2019 - 3:22pm
Solsson
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zman took the bait?

Wed, Oct 16, 2019 - 5:23pm zman
ancientmoney
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Zman: "There is no such thing...

as an insurance asset class in this environment."

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.19/images/bottomrace.jpg

But in a world with illusive debt and illusive assets, people live under the illusion that it is all for real. How disillusioned they will become in the next few years when there will the most massive destruction of asset values and wealth. Only future historians will see this clearly. But it is of course easy when you have the benefit of hindsight.

It is really incredible that so few people can see clearly today what is happening. All they need to do is to measure assets using gold as the yardstick. Gold is the only money which has survived in history and the only money which has maintained its purchasing power for thousands of years. This means that gold is a truth teller and consequently reveals governments’ and central banks’ deceitful actions in creating false money.

I showed above how paper money lost 98-99% of its value since 1971. It is the same with stock markets. We measure stocks in fake or printed money which has illusory value. If we instead measure stocks in gold, we find the truth. And the truth is that stocks look very different if you measure the performance in real money or gold.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.19/eureka.html

The table below shows that since 2000, gold has outperformed all stock markets significantly. The best performers are the Dow and the Dax that have lost “only” 58% and 63% respectively against gold. The Nikkei and the FTSE have lost 80% and 85% versus gold which is quite remarkable.

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.19/images/stock_indices.jpg

Wed, Oct 16, 2019 - 8:51pm
zman
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"Since 2000"- I'm not

"Since 2000"- I'm not suggesting anyone is cherry picking a time period, but that was the low for gold in the recent cycle. Since were looking at relative performances, one should note that gold relative to stocks is DOWN -72% since Sept of 2011, or over 9 YEARS ago!!! So if "gold is a truth teller", it's suggesting that currencies and financial assets have been gaining in real value for almost a decade now.

It's all about being intellectually honest about this stuff, who in the world would have thought that ultra low interest rates and massive QE would strengthen the US dollar, stocks and bonds, as the CRB Index and precious metals enter a major bear market? Only Big Money did, the rest have been fighting the trend.

So how much longer does this current 9 year trend continue for? That's anyone's guess, but I would suggest it's going to last MUCH longer than most people would ever expect.

Wed, Oct 16, 2019 - 9:53pm
Green Lantern
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I really don't care which has

I really don't care which has out performed as a rationale to get into one or the other or both, stocks/silver-gold.

What I like about silver is that it's $17.00 and moving down toward a nice level. I'm starting to get that same feeling I got back in April, when the cycle low hit, but it kept selling for a time. We got a low coming in for a landing in late October that looks appetizing.

The Dow Jones and SPx? IF I hadn't read so many analysis's of the upcoming cycles compared to 1929, I'd look at that chart and say that's the strongest market I'd ever seen that was ready to collapse.

It doesn't want to quit. The fed is still spiking the punch bowl and Trump ain't given any covert messages yet. While it's loosing it's momentum, and July high still stands, if that mug breaks through resistance, I'm gonna get worried even with all the cycles pointing to a rest period. Should turn back down soon but if it doesn't.....