The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Sep 27, 2019 - 12:59pm
UncleFester
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Phi, Phy, Pho, Phum?

A = B+C and A/B = B/C

PS. I still haven't pulled the trigger on a swing trade yet.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Fri, Sep 27, 2019 - 4:46pm
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Have mentioned this in the

Have mentioned this in the most recent podcast thread, but also wanted to note here that the recent update adds support for animated gifs and memes from GIPHY: https://giphy.com

Search for an image, choose "Copy link", and select the GIF link. If on a mobile device, the "Media > Social > Copy" option is probably easier.

Just paste the URL on to its own line, and will automatically convert once it's saved. Will also post this info in the FAQ. Feel free to share with others in the forums.

Fri, Sep 27, 2019 - 5:46pm
zman
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COT Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

A little improvement in silver, BUT gold is a disaster here. The bankers added a massive amount of short positions and now are at an ALL-TIME HIGH with 345 k contracts.

If I had to guess, we're going to see a massive US Dollar rally in the next 2-4 months, that will hammer the metals lower and let them cover at much lower prices.

I'm sorry guys, but the negative yielding bonds thesis will go right out the window when this happens.

Sat, Sep 28, 2019 - 5:50am
Padd
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Shanghai is closed all next week.

Don't expect any help from China next week. Shanghai is on Holiday. Could be help to the banks as they push price lower.

Mon, Sep 30, 2019 - 9:11am
Solsson
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Thumbs up or thumbs down,

Thumbs up or thumbs down, make a killing or getting killed, that's the question. Doesn't make sense? I will explain later.

What would October bring to us? Isn't this the month of Brexit, is it going to happen?

Many questions few answers ...

Mon, Sep 30, 2019 - 11:19am
zman
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US Dollar Rips Higher, Gold and Silver crushed

Well, the US Dollar hit another recent all-time high today. More rate cuts and more QE will not hurt the US Dollar, another disappointment for dollar bears.

Gold and silver are just starting the downturn with banker shorts still at all-time highs. The dumb money got caught in another bear market suckers rally in the metals, when are they ever going to learn?

What happened to the trillions of negative interest rates thesis for gold? Total bunk.

The last time gold has all-time shorts in July of 2016, gold tanked -18%. Today the short position is even larger, we could see a solid -22% move from the recent top of $1550- or $1210 oz gold before it's over. I don't silver is even worth discussing since it couldn't even break $19 oz in this rally.

Mon, Sep 30, 2019 - 10:21pm
HappyNow
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zman - try this

It seems you call for metals down well enough. Yet the price also rises, if I have missed you calling that let me know. If you haven’t made that kind of call, what prevents it?

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, Oct 1, 2019 - 11:08am HappyNow
zman
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HappyNow wrote:

HappyNow wrote:

It seems you call for metals down well enough. Yet the price also rises, if I have missed you calling that let me know. If you haven’t made that kind of call, what prevents it?

Did I miss calling the breakout move from $1365 oz to $1550 oz or a 13% move? Yes, but bear markets have rallies. I have never seen such hysteria over a little 13% move in my lifetime. What is the QQQ up in the past 10 years? I think over 600%.

What prevents it? Because it's still bear market action until proven otherwise. The basic fundamentals for gold still are bearish in my opinion. I don't feel bad for not calling little bear market rallies that fail in short order because there's no fundamentals behind it.

Tue, Oct 1, 2019 - 12:55pm
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Things I find noticeable in US bonds

I called this in 2015.

I might have got it right for some durations and currencies and wrong for other currencies (the reserve FX) and maturities.

So, given the Fed is printing 75Bn per day lately, what does that buy?

Objectively, it looks like the Fed has bought another crack at making new highs.

However the market is soaking up their money at a great pace.

The things about inflation is itappears where the fresh cash is going.

In this case, I conclude that the cost of mispricing risk (in bonds primarily) has increased alarmingly.

But I have respect for that five wave impulsivle rise in US bonds. So I watch and hide and wait in the long grass, looking with expectation for the 300 year old bondbull to stumble.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Oct 1, 2019 - 7:44pm
HappyNow
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Zman, thanks. You say with

Zman, thanks. You say with consistency that there isn’t a case for metals right now, so your expectation of rallies to fail makes sense. I am pretty sure I saw you post earlier that you would be surprised if silver got past $19 on this one.

Yes some folks thought this might be the big one, not many if any in this thread, but it was the biggest move in 5+ years for gold so I cut slack but note how human nature works and look outside to see if I can figure out what influences were on them.

All that said, I think we see $18 silver again before we see $15, but that’s short term.

AM, thanks for bringing your past work forward and reminding us of time.

75 billion a day. All the King’s horses and all the King’s men eh?

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, Oct 1, 2019 - 7:56pm
zman
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Deflationary Themes

Here are several markets I'm seeing here that are close to breaking key support levels.

1. Commodities- only -10% away from the Dec. low. After that, we test the Dec of 2015 low which isn't that far away.

2. Gold/30 year bond ratio- now only -7% away from the Dec of 2015 low.

3. Energy stock index- now only -8% away from breaking Dec low.

I would expect copper to break down to near the $2 level if this is going to happen.

https://nftrh.com/2019/09/27/gold-silver-ratio-is-a-guide-as-inflation-s...

Wed, Oct 2, 2019 - 3:52pm
Solsson
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Had a crazy vibrational

Had a crazy vibrational experience with 33 for several days. Just like Glen here from 9:11

(TRADE TARIFFS TO TRADE TALKS) MARKET REPORT MON SEPT 30 2019

I found a stock that signaled 3.33 and I bought several shares lol

My new department have 33 people, traveled with bus 33, my task at the moment had 33 steps in it a sequence.

Another number 43 maybe week 43 I do not know. Me and my colleague discussed a proper week for the site testing. We wanted to move it from summer into the fall by using the law of attraction and I picked number 43. I changed my mind, 42 is better it's Pi. When we walked out from the mall we saw a big sign with the number 43 .

Thu, Oct 3, 2019 - 10:33am
zman
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The Huge False Narrative

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-finally-understand-how-destructive-...

"We finally understand how destructive negative interest rates actually are"

This is complete BS, the reason why we have low to negative interest rates is NOT because of QE, it's because the economies are dead due to fiscal and tax policy. If wages were growing, we wouldn't have negative interests rates.

The fact of the matter is that QE only buys a fraction of the overall bonds, it doesn't control the vast majority of the outstanding bonds. The reason why the bond holders don't sell is because they know there's no chance of strong economic growth, inflation, wage gains or strong credit growth.

Could the US have 0% interest rates if we did a $10 trillion infrastructure investment program? NO. What if we gave massive payroll tax cuts? NO. What if we put up high tariffs? NO. What if income inequality turned around? NO.

You see, negative rates are because of fiscal and tax policy, not monetary. So it's not negative interest rates that are destructive, it's the economic policies that are destructive. Do low to negative rates help keep the economy down as well as a result? Yes, but that's after the fact.

Thu, Oct 3, 2019 - 1:06pm zman
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The possibility exists that

The possibility exists that such unusual fiscal and taxations are only possible after a lengthy increase in soveriegn power (for the west). And since sovereign power can be said to have a marker indicator, which is interest rates of the currency for that sovereign power, (reserve FX cash notes being a defacto bearer zero coupon bond), then it follows that such unusual monetary AND fiscal measures only appear after a lengthy bull market for both a sovereign and its bonds.

Which is what we have seen for several hundred years.

The one *is" the other. Or more precisely the one is the coin of the other.

So I don't differentiate. For purposes of analysis. I regard them as synchronized asset classes.

if you want to get into taxation, I posit that it should be possible to trade stocks and bonds using rate of change of taxation rates as a metric. Inflation adjusted governemnt emplyee pay rates could probably also be made to do this.

Anyway, when the state sinks, watch how its bonds go underwater too. In this case, Venezuela's predicament is actual for Venezuela in the short term.

And Venezuela is simultaneously predictive in the longer term for the losing sovereigns in the ongoing contest for global dominance. The loser eats the currency and bond collapse.

That's why they stick together for as long as they can. This collapse will be large enough to engulf more than merely the loser. It's also why the globalwarming scam. The global warming crisis is a psyop strategem to funnel energy demand into one of a very few monopolies. Who sells energy for the next century can fund its military the most.

In which corporation did Biden place his son Hunter?

Who are the directors of Genie Oil?

Who makes nuclear reactors of the newest types?

In the meantime, negative interest rates ARE the default. Risk is now certain even on the best bonds. Total ROI on bonds are the pricing mechanism that will over come all others.

Asset reallocation to protect capital must be overcome by racketeeering regulation extraordinary Central Bank policies.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Oct 3, 2019 - 5:00pm
zman
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"negative interest rates ARE

"negative interest rates ARE the default"

Yet, bondholders still choose to hold and even buy more of these bonds. Maybe they know something we don't know. Maybe they know with the coming deflation and fiscal austerity, these bonds provide long term value. Why doesn't someone interview a big European money manager or wealthy person that owns these bonds, WHY DO THEY OWN it? The fact of the matter is, they can't say why they own it because it's too scary of a scenario to discuss.

"Risk is now certain even on the best bonds"

That's true, that's why the bondholders make the rules. They control the monetary, fiscal, tax and trade policy. If they didn't make the rules, they wouldn't own the bonds. It's very simple, bond yields can NOT move higher from here. No matter what happens, they will keep the fundamentals for these bonds very strong. That means deflation must rule the day.

Fri, Oct 4, 2019 - 9:55am
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My 3820 th post.....

Is in the public sentiment thread here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/708216#comment-708216

Post coming here later.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Oct 4, 2019 - 7:07pm
zman
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COT Report

https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

The bankers reduced their gold shorts by almost 42,000 contracts. So not bad at all, but in all reality, it's just a small start as the overall short position remains very LARGE. Silver got a little worse at the bankers slightly added to their net short position.

Sat, Oct 5, 2019 - 7:12am
Solsson
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Lets W-in some more next week

Lets W-in some more next week!

The gold buying entities is back on Moonday.

Sat, Oct 5, 2019 - 11:14pm
Solsson
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How many potential W-patterns

How many potential W-patterns is about to unfold in this chart of GDX. I see el-even.

Tue, Oct 8, 2019 - 3:24pm
zman
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QE 4

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/08/powell-says-the-fed-will-start-expanding...

Like it even matters anymore. Gold and silver could care less at this point, the same applies to lowering interest rates, it doesn't matter.

So now what PM bulls, you have everything you wanted- lower rates, negative rates and now unlimited QE? And still gold is stuck in the mud and silver can't get anything going. None of this matters until we ever see big changes in FISCAL or TAX policy, and that's NOT going to happen.