The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Aug 23, 2019 - 10:18am
SilverSpec
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Getting into a diversified silver portfolio and jurisdic risk

Hi all,

I'm a new canuck here, a stacker and getting into a diversified silver portfolio. I realize that through the next decade there may be circumstances that fall somewhere between SHTF and the status quo. A set of where there may be potential to make tremendous profit in PM spec before the wheels fall off.

I had a few questions if anyone here can help out a newb.

1) Any thought about recent developments in Argentina and the risks for PAAS and SSR? Will PAAS ever be able to get Navidad off the ground?

2) Risks for Mexican operating companies? I realize there is the new rebranded free trade agreement in the works. Is Mexico a 'safe' jurisdiction with the new Obrador government. How much jurisdiction risk is tied to MAG, FR, and EDR?

3) Would anyone have any idea on the break through AISC prices for HL to end the strike and for AXU to develop Keno Hill? These seem like attractive projects and would tilt my portfolio heavy NA because of attenuated jurisdiction risk and more stable currencies. I imagine the AISC is also higher for these projects because labour costs are so much higher in the north. But I look at the grains/tonne and my eyes get green.

4) Would silver streamers like WPM move sideways in a global economic downturn? It's great they have the purchase agreements, but if the market value of copper and zinc decline substantially, they can't stream it if it doesn't come out of the ground.

Obviously all four (SA, Mexico, NA, streaming) would be part of a balanced silver portfolio. Just wondering how you all personally balance these factors to profit from the coming insanity. Would really appreciate your advice and insight.

Thanks,

SS

Sat, Aug 24, 2019 - 1:55pm SilverSpec
SilverSpec
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New Silver Forum

Hi guys,

Instead of hijack this thread, would invite you all to follow and contribute to the new silver mining thread, where we're going to focus on primary silver miners:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/9638/silver-mining-forum-general

My conjecture, probably shared by many of you, is that a lot of capital will flow into primary silver miners (20-25% of the market) as the spot price rises. A lot of projects dependent on marginal revenue and AISC will start to come online, and enough smart capital will follow the momentum trade.

If there is a subsequent global downturn, there is a potential that a lot of silver supply is interrupted as primary copper and zinc projects become uneconomic.

Sat, Aug 24, 2019 - 5:24pm
zman
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Jim Sinclair

https://www.jsmineset.com/

"Fiscal stimulation must occur in the USA...Since the tool of Monetary Stimulation is worn-out globally, these above facts are going to provide a currency event resulting in inflation"

It appears Jim is stealing my material here and he now admits that monetary policy of o% interest rates and QE wasn't inflationary at all.

But I got news for JS, 0% interest rates and high levels of debt do NOT permit fiscal stimulus, it can't happen and won't happen. The only "stimulus" will be bailing out The Elite and propping up their asset prices.

Joe Six-Pack and Main Street are in dire need of fiscal stimulus, but they're never going to do it and would have done it by now. Either way, JS is finally seeing the light on this issue, what took him so long?

Sat, Aug 24, 2019 - 6:33pm
Pete
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Portfolio management tool?

Is now the time to liquidate "general" shares and be very long gold (and silver)? I want more evidence (i.e. data) to be sure, but am having trouble finding it. Please reply to this post if you know where I can get/pay for the weekly ratio data preferably in .csv format going back to 1970. Dow/gold will also do. Thanks.

https://i.imgur.com/8vwL0sK.png

Sun, Aug 25, 2019 - 3:19am
Solsson
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Deflationary Dent

Deflationary Dent

Gold going to $700:

Is it time to secure profits? I've had my second best run in my trading life only shadowed by the IT-boom run in 1999-2000. My portfolio on average was up +680% and I managed to lose most of it with no knowledge, hubris and greed as main drivers for my investing. The good thing is that you got a second, third and fourth chance to make new money and lose it all over again lol ...

The COT for gold looks horrific, look here zman:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=448471

Time to secure profits, what is the current state of the world?

#SilverSpec
I do not have the knowledge to answer your questions, sorry. I own a couple of silver miners and explorers. The only advice I can give is, look at the GSR.

Welcome back Pete!

Sun, Aug 25, 2019 - 8:59pm Solsson
SilverSpec
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Deflation Theory

Okay thanks anyways. Definitely have more research to do.

I believe the fed will go NIRP and buy sovereign bonds before they let the Federal government default on liabilities. Governments have always gone to the printer. If this is the case, gold is nowhere a top.

If we decide to go straight to default, debt destruction, and contagion, then I'd rather be holding precious metals than colored paper as we enter a novel and undefined future economic paradigm.

Mon, Aug 26, 2019 - 4:46pm SilverSpec
zman
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SilverSpec wrote:

SilverSpec wrote:

Okay thanks anyways. Definitely have more research to do.

I believe the fed will go NIRP and buy sovereign bonds before they let the Federal government default on liabilities. Governments have always gone to the printer. If this is the case, gold is nowhere a top.

If we decide to go straight to default, debt destruction, and contagion, then I'd rather be holding precious metals than colored paper as we enter a novel and undefined future economic paradigm.

Greenspan and many others have already discussed "entitlement reform" or making cuts to SS and Medicare. That's NOT defaulting on liabilities. I can assure you the US isn't going to have the Fed to buy bonds to fund these social programs down the road, not gonna happen.

Also, when interest rates hit 0% or negative in the US, they will continue to roll over debt and will have almost no interest payments. Again, that's not defaulting on debt.

The Elite aren't stupid, they're not going to inflate anything here. Not gonna happen.

Tue, Aug 27, 2019 - 12:20am
Pete
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re prior post 11265

Sorry, just figured out how to get much more data from stockcharts.com for the gold/spx ratio, and there are quite a few failed ratio/ma crossover signals looking at 1970 to 1999. My initial enthusiasm has been dashed.

Tue, Aug 27, 2019 - 11:53am
Solsson
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No I like your chart very

No I like your chart very much Pete. Lets use it the old fashion way like the people of mother nature.

you are absolutely correct, lets Win some more!

This is how I trade nowadays, using the same technique as aboriginals, my soulmates as of late haha ...

CG Jung on Synchronicity (Lecture by Stephan Hoeller)
Tue, Aug 27, 2019 - 5:18pm
foscotanner
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Good stops but let it roll....

As far as I can see, there are good indicators to let things roll....

But stops a must.

Gold, silver, miners all pushing onwards... All saying we are climbing a wall of worry.....

But the odds on a Downside attack here... Probable....

But the potential of a break up which runs....

This isn't the time for new positions... But.... This should feel like a top. It doesn't. On a closing basis its making higher highs. On a down basis, higher lows. Silver joining the party... The shit miners still close to lows, so no speculative rally like 2017.... People calling for a crash....

Just be mindful that gold around a level that could attract a lot of resistance... A lot... Miners in gdx at the level that was a top in 2017.... Any reaction down from here could be swift... Decide clear stops in case. No regrets....

Tue, Aug 27, 2019 - 10:18pm zman
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AARP militia?

Octogenarian army descends on Washington D.C., meanwhile every inner city starts looking like Detroit summer 1967.

Tue, Aug 27, 2019 - 10:28pm foscotanner
SilverSpec
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Too much momentum

The only way I see a major back off is if there is a substantial payroll tax coupled with a speedy resolution of the trade war, but this just delays the inevitable (at most) five years as sovereign debts explode higher and the boomer tsunami hits shore.

Of course, there are going to be down days in the coming month but completely agree with your assessment of higher lows. New money to the silver sector will be flowing first into mid-cap and large-cap silver companies with established projects, or those with projects not viable until $24-25 AISC.

Wed, Aug 28, 2019 - 8:16am
UncleFester
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Oh well...

I was expecting a pullback and wave 3 just kept going up instead. Silver has been ripping higher the last 4 trading days and the GSR keeps coming down. Still waiting for a swing trade entry, but that is life. Glad to see PM prices are getting frisky again. Be careful out there.

Hello Pete, good to hear from you again.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Thu, Aug 29, 2019 - 1:00pm
zman
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Why am I not surprised?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-29/dalio-burned-bridgewater-emerg...

"dalio burned bridgewater emerges one biggest treasury shorts"

Yeah, remember inflation was going to be the big issue??? How did that workout Ray? I hope you covered those shorts, see you in negative interest rates in short order.

Thu, Aug 29, 2019 - 3:03pm
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Inflation the big issue

.. oh it will be.

But big trends take long times to turn.

This is still the reversal (bottoming for yields) pattern. Read Edwards & Magee folks!

Waiting until the final, final final swing is so hard to get right. But the breakout swing .... oh yeah ....

On a completely unrelated note (/sarcasm) does anybody know the target dates for the various FX to go purely national-digital in each of the large FX zone nations?

We should be running the first internet countdown to runaway inflation on this forum.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 3:23pm argentus maximus
silver66
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You mean these guys AM

found this pdf

chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/https://vdthangmeomeo.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/edwards-magee-technical-analysis-of-stock-trends-9th-edition.pdf

If they go digital FX then with a key stroke they can give the plebes more "credits" to buy their gruel

sounds like a wet dream for Rogoff

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Aug 30, 2019 - 5:36pm
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I have the printed hardback

I have the printed hardback 5th Edition from 1966 of that book. And also the e-version of the 9th Ed.

The added materials (to the original texts and charts by Robert Edwards & John Magee back in 1948 are not the same in each expanded edition.

A bit of history. The book is now published for 71 years! And it's still applicable to markets.

Looking inside the cover of my hard copy, the sticker says I paid 75 dollars for it which was a lot of money at the time. That was well prior to the crash in 1987, about 1980-1982.

It's a great market analysis book, though in black & white, it's full of wisdom.

Ah, Ken. The cocky chess master economist R&D hitman and novel theory kiteflier for the NWO. I wonder how I would fare against him at the medieval game of kings?

For other readers, Silver66 provides us with a tactful reminder that Ken is the recent years originator of the idea of declining value currency for issuance by the currency printers - ie negative interest rate cash.

The current branch of economics needs a name to descirbe it "school".

I propose Rogoff might be known as a disciple of "The Jolly Roger" school of economics. :-)

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Aug 31, 2019 - 8:39am argentus maximus
eclectic
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E&M in PRACTICE

Tue, Sep 3, 2019 - 1:18pm zman
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Regarding negative interest rates

Regarding negative interest rates and gold: Maybe you guys have already seen this article, it was on ZH. I've actually printed it out and tried to read it carefully, though it is definitely over my head on some issues. For example, I don't understand how bank swaps work, exactly, and how that aspect of the crisis would unfold. The article struck me as well reasoned and thought out, but I would be very interested in the opinion of more knowledgeable folks. I sense a change in the weather. TIA, Lanni

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/negative-interest-...

Tue, Sep 3, 2019 - 6:15pm
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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I do not have a clue my

I do not have a clue my mothers keeper, but a Sun number is present in Gold.

Just woke up and switched my computer on. 11:44 hmm that is 484. 4+8+4=16 that is Phi, that must mean something.

Look at the goldprice 1548.12, 15x48x12= 8640 cool ...

I interpret it as gold is shining right know.