The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 2:37am
foscotanner
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😂

I suspect A. M. Included the arrows for a reason.....

If it was an ABC and we are off again, it feels as if Mr market doesn't want to let you in....

I always looked at that 1550 level that held for a couple of years until it didn't. We blasted down through it but never retested it. Which makes me feel that we should visit it...

But I would expect an amount of selling at it if we approach it in an orderly manner.

Given that we never revisited it and given that Mr market is not wanting to wait for long at any platforms.... This does throw open a possibility of a gap straight through it similar to the gap down. But I hadnt contemplated that until now....

And the fact I am contemplating it throws open the possibility of a bigger ABC to take more time since the possibilities are becoming too bullish.....

Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 9:47am
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GSR

Silver continues to lag and the GSR grinds higher. In 100 years the ratio has never gone much higher than 100. Any thoughts on a pivot date near late 2020 or early 2021. Or is it "this time is different"? I would be interested in hearing everyone's take. The funny thing is.... $4/oz wasn't that long ago, yet I now think $15/oz is screaming deal. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Q6xgRpR3/
Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 10:03am
Green Lantern
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Foscotanner,

Foscotanner,

Not sure, but for your consideration.

maybe forming a 5 wave impulse to Mid-July inflection point w/ 2 a,b,c corrections? this would mean net up until end of week.

The cycle is bullish until Mid-July and $1550-$1570 looks good. I take the 1667 on Am's chart to be the highest bearish reversal possibility.

Silver is dirt cheap, but sane as gold see Mid July as a cap and then reversal. So I wait. Could run to 16??

------------------

"When a market makes a historic high, it is telling you something. No matter how many people tell you why the market shouldn't be that high, or why nothing has changed, the mere fact that the price is at a new high tells you something has changed." - Larry Hite

Ed Seykota's partner

Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 10:50am
Green Lantern
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31.940-year cycle

31.940-year cycle international battles?

Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 11:08am
zman
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This is where it gets funny

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/blain-biggest-question-facing-...

"Under Draghi, the ECB's QE averted ongoing debt crisis, but has not stimulated the economy. Instead its pumped money into financial assets. Lagarde's challenge will be to meld fiscal policy into the ECB's monetary mandate"

Is this a joke or something? After a decade of getting The Elite even richer with QE and bringing the EU economy into a almost 0% growth rate, something is going to change because of Legarde? I don't think so.

"The big question for Legarde will be how to stimulate Europe"

Let me guess, trillions more of QE to buy assets and then called it "stimulus". The Elite aren't going to do anything to "stimulate Europe", just look at the bond yields. BTW, it's really not hard to stimulate the US or EU today, but they're NEVER going to let it happen because of the obvious reasons.

Legarde will be a buyer of EU stocks in the years ahead as the general economy remains in a perpetual recession. It's no different than what's coming to the US.

Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 1:44pm
zman
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Trade War? I don't think so.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-deficit-jumps-84-in-may-to-hi...

"U.S. trade deficit jumps 8.4% in May to highest mark of 2019"

That's one hell of a "trade war". Bottom line, there is no trade war taking place, this is pure nonsense.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-03/trump-says-us-should-join-grea...

Trump made no mention of devaluing the dollar, it's not gonna happen. In fact, he doesn't even have the power to do it.

Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 2:49pm
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Yes

They're all terrified of a trade war. Cooperation is they way they stay owners of society. It's also why Brexit, and Italexit are so feared, and so opposed in a certain way. France is going to go full authoritarian before the establishment relinquishes control.

And in so choosing, the elites are birthing and making their worst fear materialize.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 2:59pm zman
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France

France/Germany/EU will be in an unusual state-to-people behavioural status, with factional jockeying for power, in 2-3 years time if I remember my dates correctly. And the event triggered can provoke a war 5-6 years after. (mid-late 2020's). I'd rather be wrong on this analysis but doubt it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jul 3, 2019 - 7:04pm argentus maximus
zman
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argentus maximus wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:

They're all terrified of a trade war. Cooperation is they way they stay owners of society. It's also why Brexit, and Italexit are so feared, and so opposed in a certain way. France is going to go full authoritarian before the establishment relinquishes control.

And in so choosing, the elites are birthing and making their worst fear materialize.

Yet, the financial media already claims we're in a "trade war". If the US was actually in a real trade war, we would see the US trade deficit down at least -40% to -70%, not exploding higher!!! That is NOT a "trade war".

Look at this- There's new "socialist" in office. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-parliament-president/italian-socia...

Yet, his only concerns are letting in more migrants and stopping any Brexit from taking place.

And look at this, populist Italian government giving the EU Elites anything they want, what else is new other than fiscal austerity? Bond yields headed even LOWER. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit-conte/italy-confident-bruss...

Thu, Jul 4, 2019 - 8:59pm
Green Lantern
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Good work Zman!

Good work Zman!

FSO TOUR 2018-19 / "Theme" - Born of the Fourth of July (John Williams)
Fri, Jul 5, 2019 - 8:09am
Green Lantern
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You are currently watching

You are currently watching Ganns’ 9th year, jubilee year, in SPX. 9th year of the decade is the strongest of the bull markets. It is also the beginning of the end and then the cycle reboots. 2019 + 11 years = retirement. Trump, the fed, the population so far haven’t messed natural law because they are just the actors They do what is right and wrong according to the higher forces that run them. Only an individual has the sovereignty to override their own personal cycles(as far as I can tell) large groups are immobile

Fri, Jul 5, 2019 - 6:14pm
Green Lantern
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gold/silver ratio hit an all

gold/silver ratio hit an all time high!!

That's exactly not the direction you want it to go. That's what you would also call a sign.

So if Central Banks are fighting each other buying gold that sent it up, they don't give a hoot about silver. (for now)

It's a sign something is brewing behind the geopolitical curtain, and both gold and silver are not ready for prime time. August is generally not a good time for gold. July isn't finished yet.

I'd like to make one more trade this summer but if it violates my lower resistance lines, than I'll nix that. So far, nothing called off.

Jack be nimble,

Jack be quick,

Jack must have been watching

those candlesticks.

Fri, Jul 5, 2019 - 7:40pm Green Lantern
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So much to talk about in just

So much to talk about in just that.

Have a great weekend all of you.
argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Jul 6, 2019 - 7:29am argentus maximus
Solsson
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Indeed, I got kicked out of

Indeed, I got kicked out of Golden Predator yesterday. I saw 47c as a turning point as in 47degrees for the Sun. So I put up my stocks for sale. I never thought it was going to be filled.

Then I looked at the GSR and Silver looks undervalued compared to Gold, that's an understatement.
Doing some DD on silver miners at the moment.

How about inflation, baltic dry index is moving up and the Russian funds are also moving up, a resource rich country.

IT IS TIME FOR SILVER TO BLOSSOM I wish Silver to breakout to the upside in 2019. The sooner the better!

Sun, Jul 7, 2019 - 1:53pm Solsson
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Is this worth considering as

Sun, Jul 7, 2019 - 9:11pm
zman
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DB

The hysteria and conspiracy theories with DB just never end. It's a bank and it can always be nationalized if needed. It's a human choice, not a market event. The days of market events changing the status quo ended over 10 years ago and it's never coming back. DB = Nothing Burger.

Mon, Jul 8, 2019 - 11:16am
Solsson
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47 a turning point?

47 a turning point?

https://se.investing.com/equities/northern-tiger-resources-inc

no it was just plain luck

DB is not a nothing burger, it's a crime. Just look at the stock chart. Europe's largest bank for now?

Mon, Jul 8, 2019 - 6:24pm
Green Lantern
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I think the chance for a new

I think the chance for a new high in gold this week was taken out with an inside reversal. Silver even less of a chance.

Hope you enjoyed the early summer activities/profits. Please drive home safely.

Mon, Jul 8, 2019 - 8:29pm
zman
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"Interest rate suppression"???

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-08/shelton-fed-realization-liquid...

"Shelton, The Fed, & The Realization Of A Liquidity Trap"

"The reason you know the Fed is caught in a 'liquidity trap' is because they are being forced to lower rates due to economic weakness"

That's correct, interest rates are NOT being suppressed, bond yields trade lower because of the lack of liquidity. There's a reason why investors accept negative yields on so much sovereign debt, they know the economic future is extremely bleak. This is NOT manipulation of the bond markets, it's manipulation of fiscal, trade and tax policy.

The US 30 year T-Bond hit an all-time high as the Fed was a seller of US T-bonds, not a buyer. This is the market, not "interest rate suppression".

Banks don't want to extend credit into the general economy because long term growth is weak, so interest rates trade lower. When interest rates are low, asset prices soar higher. If the private sector doesn't provide the proper stimulus for economic growth, the public sector should pick up the difference with investment. The US and EU governments REFUSE to do so because it would cause The Elite to lose their wealth and power.

My prediction- more of the same. This means lower bond yields, weaker economic growth and even lower inflation. Will governments come in a make up the different and stop the liquidity trap? Nope, the only liquidity provided will be The Fed and other central banks buying financial assets.

So we really don't have anything new here at all, we have had negative yielding bonds and QE for year after year now. As far as I'm concerned NOTHING has changed at all.

Bond yields couldn't trade lower or negative IF commodity prices trade higher, if real economic growth was taking place, if wages were growing or if the velocity of money was moving higher. There is no "suppression" taking place.

Tue, Jul 9, 2019 - 11:36am
Green Lantern
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Epstein….. That’s what

Epstein….. That’s what everybody is talking about so I thought it would be apropos to discuss it in a trading forum focused on gold, Fibonacci.

What if, (all speculation here), the USA is experiencing the largest private financial scandal in history at the moment and nobody knows about it….yet? Larger then Bernie Madoff #2, arrested same year as the 2008 financial crisis when monthly sunspot number reached a minimum and there was a solar eclipse in the neighborhood.

Bernie Madoff was celebrity wealth, this is the wealthiest hedge fund owners in the world, CEO’s and, politicians (both sides of the aisle) now foisted into the spotlight because one guy on twitter decided to file a freedom of information petition….. Cernovich..

The perb…a former Wall Street exec at Bear Sterns.

What if the sex scandal has a larger umbrella…a hidden financial dimension? A high tech financial blackmail scheme using young girls to lure billionaires into your web of deceit? Hedge fund execs, corporate CEO’s, and the political class. Apparently, the guy used to trade commodities.

Have them send a check to your offshore account the size that would make Madoff look like a peasant.

Then have the state try the case, let him off because if it is discovered who he is controlling, well then the house of cards begin to fall. Then trick the public w/a hoax, Q-anon style, to get everybody off track including all the dark web crusaders going after the liberals . You know sex scandals and lizards,PizzaGate, to take the public off the trail of the real scandal. But unfortunately for Epstein, lightening has struck twice.

You have the politicians in your pocket, so you think nobody is going to prosecute you while you runaway with billions of dollars and maybe some tax payer $ too and control the politicians that you elect.

And all of this is ignored except by some alternative guy on twitter, who forces the hand of government by filing a freedom of information case, and now gov including the republican attorney general, and other complicit cabinet members are being thrown around. For the record, I mentioned this connection two years ago, but I don’t think Trump fell for the trick because his needs were well taken care of by himself. Just a gathering of the elites as elite people tend to do. Not quite the everyday mens club.

And here is where I diverge with Vox Day who decided that the solution was the center joining the right Introduce stage left, Maria Von Franz and Carl Jung who discussed the larger Zeitgeist of our time before most people even thought about it.

Von Franz was a Colleague/disciple of Jung and prolific writer who wrote about Jung’s archetypes in a way that made it a bit more accessible to the average person by revealing the archetypical component in children’s fairy tales and showing how it was playing out in the collective unconscious.

Phi isn’t just a boring # It’s an archetypical expression of the dynamic of reality. It’s all over Jung books, not just trading books but presented in a way that u might not recognize it.

The “widening gyre” , Ben Hunt” would be called a “spiritual crisis” by the Jungians. The extreme polarities of thought serve to produce an unseen third factor as a solution. Not the parts, left/right, but the invisible force which produces balance in markets, politics and social affairs. A crisis produces a solution and thus a crisis is necessary in society because it is not man’s nature to deal with imbalances. The collective are problem avoiders and thus nature has a build in safeguard against our terminal condition. Sorry heavy reading but it explains it well….. Von Franz, This is the golden ratio discussed in a psychological way.

https://issuu.com/lewislafontaine1/docs/marie_-_louise_von_franz_-_archetyp

this would make Cernovich archetypically, the savior that messes everything up for the “group” who prefers secrets. By the way, the King w/gold, prestige, power, the solar element is never the solution in fairy tales. It’s usually the simple person that people under estimate or misjudge. You know like a carpenter that creates problems for the establishment of the time.

If you use Scott Adams, most likely outcome technique to predict the future, and you add the archetypical element, then the movie ends in a way that the audience doesn’t suspect. Otherwise why watch the movie? Jung taught that societies spiritual transformations could be seen in advanced with the aide of understanding the archetypical behavior of the collective. Like predicting the end of the movie. But isn’t that the lesson that Am is teaching you as you await for some unknown factor to make your stacking right? He is giving you something tangible that you can relate to …movies, colleges etc…and pointing out the archetypical process in a user friendly way.

all great writers are well versed in Jungian archetypes because I once was shown the list by an employee of Dream Works, former co-worker, who showed me all the human archetypes known to man that they use in the movies. Pretty much Shakespeare covered most of them. I should have copied it. The SJW has subverted those archetypes by tapping into the dysfunctions of the collective unconscious which is a corruption of this feminine principle.

if you are the curious type and decide to read on, you realize the left’s SJW politics is an expression of psychological aberrations in the collective anima/female/yin.lunar principle. The response, the right, creates more and nore disturbances of the opposing force.

The most basic/fundamental/rudimentary archetype at the top of the heirachy of all archetypes is the king/Queen archetype or the yin/yang, female/male, sun/moon which are the two parts of the golden ratio seeking balance and the arrival of the invisible 3rd force which science still has yet to recognize,

The King looks over his kingdom and realizes all is not right in his kingdom and things are in disarray. But the more he tries to put things in order, the law of reverse effects takes over, and things get more chaotic. Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. All the Kings Horses, and All the Kings Den couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty together again.

Hunpty Dumpty is an Egg? A representation of something much deeper symbolic. Fairy tales and rhymes were known for their symbolic meaning and thus it requires symbolic language to decode.

Or the hero in a story like Odysseus who realizes his wounding and just take a journey to heal himself. Society is in that process. similarly,Cancer is the last stage of imbalance. It is when all systems have been in a state of imbalance, possibly for years, that critical mass is reached and brought into the waking consciousness that a person now is forced to embark on a spiritual transformation.

we have cancer appearing everywhere in society and the imbalance of this lunar principle, some of you call it the divine feminine, some of you relate to the Virgin mary and maybe something else like the corrective phase of a wave. The same principles are embedded everywhere but hidden from plain view. Archetypes is a wholistic approach to understanding things and noticing where it shows up in all things, otherwise, it is not a holistic approach.

Thus ,the problem state of the body, or the collective, that we all complain about is actually the solution. The divergence of polarity is what the Jungian called differentiation or alchemy. Evil, which is also the what Chinese acupuncturists call when bad energy invades the organ systems, And the archetype of the solution in fairy tales is never a king with lots of gold. It’s the unseen simple man. You know, like a carpenter.

Acupuncturists work differently. Some focus only on balancing the imbalances, yin/yang (the polarities) and some work at bring back into balance the 5 elements which is depicted as a pentagonal/five star/Venus like cycle. As above, so below. Or wheels within wheels because the larger cycle is the moderator of the smaller cycles….in markets and in the body. Holistic health is not listing a bunch of herbs and alternative agents for your arthritis but addressing the fundamental imbalances which unbeknownst to most using them are addressing these invisible cycles in the body. You can do it without the herbs if you understand the inner processes and know how to work with them.

As another great thinker and writer, little known, once said, your problems whether they be your health, relationships, $, are a reflection of the problems of society at large. That’s why Socrates was the smartest man in Greece. He understood that the key to understanding reality was understanding thyself.

Yesterday, Chiron went retrograde. That probably means nothing to you. But it's a cycle too. The archetype of Chiron, the wounded healer, might have been Jung’s greatest claim to fame by people. At least what most people know. yesterday, Chiron went retrograde. Just when Society is grabbling with putting meaning to a very dark episode and the solar and lunar ratio (gold and silver) are diverging. I'm sure Jung would have made the connection between societies private knowledge coming into the light and what it means for societies future transformation coinciding w this archetype. All patterns are connected in some unseen way. It also relates to the "healing waters" (billions of dollars of damage to Americas' heartland with record flooding?) Ice storms in Mexico and record heat in Alaska. Polarities....Divergence? Breadth? All trading terminology. Meet

Chiron, the wise elder, who oversee's Percy's studies, the hero/savior archetype, taking on Athena (the left, the wounded feminine) in battle, defeated and wounded by the left, Neptune (the god of the waters of life) gives himintuitive guidance to get up and fight. Neptune in Pisces archetype....society today going through a polarity split, while nature and the force, the law of three, will bring the resolutions needed in ways not seen.

Society in battle. Alchemy and water.

Percy Jackson & the Olympians (2/5) Movie CLIP - The Water Will Give You Power (2010) HD

The yin/yang synbol is not 50/50. It's phi.

https://tomajjavidtash.com/2014/12/30/yin-yang-the-geometric-equivalent-...

Little did they tell you that Greek and Ronan mythology had real life applications

Thank Yahweh that Am held the field of this forum down a lesser traveled path and talks about golds path in ways others don’t and can’t.

randomness