The setup for the big trade

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Tue, May 14, 2019 - 6:15am
Green Lantern
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"Both Xi and Trump are

"Both Xi and Trump are classic state mercantilists"

Ben Hunt

Tue, May 14, 2019 - 7:06am Green Lantern
Green Lantern
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mentioned last week as a very

mentioned last week as a very profitable trading gold stock. Given the right circumstances, it exhibits wide range, high return, for low capital trades. This found in back testing how this stock behaves according to the work of Louis McWhirter Theory of Stock Market Forecasting. https://www.amazon.com/McWhirter-Theory-Stock-Market-Forecasting/dp/0866...

It has been hypothesized that he, she was WD Gann based on the gematria of the name =9. Back testing this stock shows that it is highly responsive to certain cycles when they hit. Based on the same system this IS NOT A BUY AND HOLD STOCK based on it's first trade chart which exhibits ALOT of volatility.

Tue, May 14, 2019 - 4:42pm
zman
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Gold/Silver Ratio hits another recent high

https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

Yesterday, the Gold/Silver Ratio hit 88. This is just another piece of evidence that deflationary forces are in full force. It's at the highest level since 1991 when it hit 100 on the ratio. I see this ratio going higher, maybe even past the 100 level in the years ahead.

Tue, May 14, 2019 - 5:38pm
zman
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The Elite are already sending the message

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/14/feds-williams-says-policymakers-need-to-...

Isn't this interesting, the Fed is already preparing the public that 0% interest rates won't help growth for the US economy!!!! The long list of excuses is beyond pathetic, but what else would we expect from these crooks?

So what have I been saying for months now? We're going to 0% to negative rates of interest and we're going to live in a dead economy at the same time. What did Williams just prepare everyone for? The exact same point I have been making.

It's really not to hard to figure out what they're going to say next, they're very predictable. So there we have it, a Fed member warning the public that low interest rates won't make any difference at all for them. But for The Elite, it's going to workout just fine, watch and see!!!!

BTW, the Fed Fund Futures are already pointing for more than a 1/4 point cut and is getting close to a full 1/2 point cut. It's a done deal folks, it's time to get on the deflationary death train, it's not going to be a pleasant ride for the bottom 99%.

Wed, May 15, 2019 - 3:11pm
zman
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Calling All Bond Bears???? The Bond Bull is BACK!!!!

Where did they go? Remember the heavy all-time shorts when the 10 year was trading with a 3.25% yield? Yeah, the Fed was going to "normalize rates" with at least 4-5 more rate hikes , Trump was going to create economic growth with tariffs and trillions of infrastructure spending, wages were going to soar higher, business investment was going to soar higher, what the hell happened?

Oh I forgot, massive deficits were also going to make yields go higher, what happened? Also, the Fed selling hundreds of billions of bonds (QT) was going to make yields go higher, again, nothing. Oh, the Fed told the world they "wanted 2% inflation", again, nothing.

So the next rationalization of yields going lower was the sell off in the stock market, remember the 10 year yield hit 2.37% in Dec. of 2018 during the LOW of the stock market? So today with the stock market indexes near all-time highs the 10 year yield hit 2.37%!!! So another theory goes out the window.

Then the next rationalization was when the Fed can't hike rates the US dollar will trade lower, well that hasn't happened. Then it was when the Fed is forced to CUT rates the US dollar will trade lower. Well, the market is already pricing in almost a 50 basis CUT- and the US dollar is trading HIGHER!!!

Then it's going to be, well when they start QE again- then the US Dollar will trade lower. Sorry, been there done that. That's not going to do anything.

Now the last desperate theory is "Modern Monetary Theory". I'm sorry folks, IF anyone really thinks The Elite are going to flood the general economy with money by funding the peasants, I have some bridges for sale for them. This is pipedream city, never going to happen.

Will The Elite use MMT to enrich themselves with printed money like they have in the past? Yes. Will they suggest it's to help the peasants? Yes. Will money ever go to the peasants and enter the real economy? NO.

So what happened when we saw weak retail sales and industrial production today on Wall Street? Yes, the boys on Wall Street are celebrating economic weakness, this is just the start to the deflationary party.

Thu, May 16, 2019 - 2:14pm
Green Lantern
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(No subject)

Thu, May 16, 2019 - 3:46pm
zman
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Gold Ratios

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-ratio-charts-offer-keys-bull

The charts and ratios don't lie, it tells the whole story.

Like I have been stating, the 30 year bond and gold are pointing to even more deflation. Lower bond yields and lower gold prices.

The SPY/Gold ratio also points to new lows. Which ultimately means higher stocks and lower gold prices.

Sat, May 18, 2019 - 4:14am
Solsson
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While we wait for gold to

While we wait for gold to recover from the full moon smack, we can take a look at the treasury notes:

The price of the precious metals often confuses you. I look at a basket of miners to get a clearer view. Looking at miners I am tempted to say that we soon will have a rally.

Looking at bonds I am not impressed, they look long term bearish and short term bullish. The 30y could make a double top (a lower one) but I doubt it will get that far before something fundamentally bond bearish happens. Listening to the heavy rhetoric language by my favorite commentators, we are getting closer to a precious moment.

Sun, May 19, 2019 - 11:06am
zman
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30 Year Bond

I'm sorry Solsson, but I don't find anything chart bearish about the 30 year bond. It's around 5% from the all-time high of 2016. So after a 3 year consolidation, we should see very strong move from that high.

Check out the link I posted on the gold and bond ratios, it tells the whole story.

"bond bearish happens"

I'm all ears, I posted all the reasons why I'm bullish on bonds, what's your bear case?

Sun, May 19, 2019 - 3:52pm
Green Lantern
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Gold over the next weeks

Gold over the next weeks/months. While the inflection points work (change of direction), and I have the tabulation of all solar/lunar Combinations for the last 40 years, and I check in with other top cycles analysts including Am,and the other guy we post on RnP (EH), I try to do an Elliot wave analysis, look for set ups etc... Something is wrong in a different way.

I've noticed EH has recalibrated along the way, changed price levels, Pm(Gann guy) has totally recapitulated from week to week for the last month (these are the guys whose technical analysis books I study so I respect their experience enough to learn their methods but they are struggling too. They seem to be getting the indexes much better than gold and silver.

"Since the US trade war with China has really gotten underway the best fit cycles for gold and silver have not forecast as accurately as they have in the past before the trade war started."

He goes on to imply the active cycles have been shifting.

I have seen the gold and silver cycles invert, and I saw it in crude all around the same time span.

The cycles were working fine late 2018 into the Feb high. So if you going to tell me it's because it's all manipulated than you'll tell me why it's different now? It looks like cycles are being amputated/flattened?? But if different cycles are becoming active which I'd have to spend a long time looking at it, then I'm out until there is a clear direction. I'm not into 2 day trades.

Theoretically, tomorrow is a change of trend, there are lunar/solar positive factors on Tuesday that have traditionally had 4% or greater reversals in gold...so technically next few days should be bullish but prices should have been rising from a higher zone.

Sun, May 19, 2019 - 7:34pm
zman
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Why believe a liar?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-05-19/fed-lie-day-low-inflation-one-...

You see, when you do something but don't want people to know it, you claim you're attempting to do something else.

Of course The Fed is going to claim to want some inflation when the game plan is deflationary fiscal and tax policies. It's not that hard to reverse wealth inequality and create purchasing power for the peasants, but they don't want to do it for obvious reasons.

So the questions remains, why do gold bugs cherry pick what they believe from The Fed? I got news for all of them, there's not going to be any inflation. Wages will continue to stagnate and taxes will continue to rise (for the peasants), and social programs will experience massive cuts.

We're going to 0% and negative interest rates, you can't have those levels of interest rates and any level of inflation. There is no interest rate manipulation, just deflationary policies.

Tue, May 21, 2019 - 6:58am
Green Lantern
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Gold....I digress....

Gold....I digress....

Somebody, not saying who, dumped 38 million shares of bitcoin creating a flash crash.

Again, the cycles were working fine. I watch. I don't play.

Bitcoin rallied. Alot of big eyes. Then came a Bit-con Whale who dumped about $38 mil in coin and it collapsed the market by $1000....no liquidity............hmmmm?

https://gizadeathstar.com/2019/05/cryptos-flash-crashed/

It is more interesting that it collapsed the price targets.

A popular idea is that fiat, the US Dollar, is backed by nothing. It ain't so. It is still backed by the willingness of the population to work for it. What you do with it, how you exchange it, afterwards is your business. But most people still accept it except a few rigid crypto traders trying to nudge the population into crypto's by not accepting anything else for his product. Outlier.

U.S. Dollar is backed by the productive capacity of it's human population which is the most valuable resource of any country. Until the population decides otherwise....

Whereas bitcoin is backed by 1's and 0's.

Which one you want?

Tue, May 21, 2019 - 12:34pm
zman
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Bitcoin or US Dollar

It really depends on the environment. Today, I'll take the US dollar because of the massive deflationary policies taking place. If that were to ever change, hard assets like gold and bitcoin would work.

I wouldn't say bitcoin isn't back by anything, it's encryption and a lot of energy that goes into it. There's also a very limited supply.

Wed, May 22, 2019 - 6:38am
Green Lantern
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Things are quite normal.

may snows blankets the west.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-05-21-late-may-snow-colorado...

30 plus tornado's plus continued rain, eclipse season, inundate the plains.

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2019-05-21-severe-thunderstorms-f...

Top Miner BHP Sees an End to the Era of Coal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-22/top-miner-bhp-sees-co...

This is not the time to close your coal fired power plants as keeping warm will be the most important issue ahead of us.

not much doubt t that as we enter into a mini ice age, while parts of the west sit in 9 inches of snow in late may, we will see an increase of hunger, disease, and difficult economies.

No spring wheat has been planted in Canada and darn little in the U.S. Too wet, too cold. And not much corn.......

https://www.agprofessional.com/article/rain-could-cut-3-million-corn-acres

....soybeans still have a window. They just won't be eating US soybeans in China. Rough road ahead for men of the earth.

Wed, May 22, 2019 - 11:29am
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Scott Adams

Watch and feel Scott tweak your perceptions as he does what he does best - jump to about 36 1/2 minutes in if the link takes you to the beginning:

Episode 535 Scott Adams: Persuasion Lesson on Nuclear Energy, Plus Reframing Headlines

Now after experiencing the benefits of that mind massage, remember that the elites need cheap energy more than ever after their ME wars failed short of full confiscation of somebody else's resources.

And Venezuela is not a done steal yet. Sorry, I mean to say "deal", possibly.

Scott failed to mention resource wars, cost of energy to us vs our colleagues on the other side, and who owns controlling interests in both competing forms of energy.

Naturally it couldn't be about who gets paid trillions for energy for the coming century.

Not that I favour pollution by burning "fossil" fuels, but I remember that nuclear fuel makes polluting residues too. Waste that remains toxic for a really long time. Unless we go thorium-nuclear or fusion.

Did Scott mention thorium-nuclear? (It's a really common element, found in coal of all things, you know that black stuff that regulations are making fall in value so that ... err .. .let's move on, so there would be no centralized controlling of thorium sources, no commercial monopolistic advantage to be gained). Quite a tougher mission to make ALL the money in that business.

He said SAFE in nice big reassuring capital letters. Did you subconscious 7 year old self like them? Did the conscious say to the sub conscious "That's just Scott playing with your natural innocence"?

Learn training skills from a pro as he trains you, for somebody.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, May 22, 2019 - 11:40am
zman
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Don't say you were not warned

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/potential-fed-nominee-shelton-wants-a-ch...

They keep on sending the puppets out to prepare the peasants. We're going to 0% and negative rates on a forever basis.

From Trump's potential Fed nominee (Shelton)- "no longer uncomfortable with low rates and their potential for helping wealthy investors" .

Of course not, low rates mean deflationary policies, which ultimately means massive wealth and income inequality. This is where we are headed and there's no stopping it.

The bond market is already showing us, the 30 year bond is just 5% away from an all-time high and the Fed has NOT even started cutting interest rates yet. The Fed still can cut rates 9 TIMES in the coming months and years ahead.

Thu, May 23, 2019 - 6:53am
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US Bonds

Last high 2016. That's all that matters.

I merely await the next appointed time, being aware that short term notes were not in sync with long term bonds at the last major inflection.

Sovereign cycle rules central banks or regional powers, the next higher fractal rules the alpha sovereign.

Period of that cycle is talked about openly by central banks. They talk about a 36 year cycle, which might be an historical average of several interest rate waves/swings.

Would a reversal of the higher wave induce an inversion of smaller fractals nesting within it? Probably.

I have dates, several, which intrigue me and await figuring out. In context of this post, May 2019, and Jan 2020 are possibles for forced actions by central bank leaders.

May 2022 and Nov 2025 are also large enough for me see substantial dislocations from here.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, May 23, 2019 - 12:51pm
zman
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Bond Yields - New Recent Lows

Well, it appears the bond market just blew through the Dec. lows on yields. What is this telling us? Real economic weakness and no inflation.

I'm going to make a prediction here- The Fed cuts interest rates by the end of August. We have to remember, the Fed just stated this week that they are neutral at this point and find no need for further rate HIKES!

So if we see a rate cut in the coming months, what will the stock market do? I assume much higher levels without a doubt.

Also, check out the commodities index, I see a new downtrend coming in the weeks and months ahead. It's all spelling the same theme, deflation and no money to the rescue.

Thu, May 23, 2019 - 10:15pm
Solsson
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zman wrote:

zman wrote:

I'm going to make a prediction here- The Fed cuts interest rates by the end of August. We have to remember, the Fed just stated this week that they are neutral at this point and find no need for further rate HIKES!

I am bullish on gold and the thing you mention is very bullish for gold! You know Gods language is symbolic, do you not read the news zman? Mr Bond broke is foot and he is hospitalized for a while.

Theresa May goes away in May and that is today. Not going to miss her. She always was a knee dog to the EU elite, claiming a new Brexit referendum what a moronic move.

Then we have Deutsche Bank, I feel a cosmic slap is about to hit the financial sector soon, what would that make to the bond market?

Ok so the forum is not impressed with my queue tickets, lol I love them and I gave the phenomena a thought the other day. The place that gives me the esoteric numbers is called Hertz car rental and we all know that Hertz is the unit for vibration, a metaphysical symbolic place. The place is also known as the crownprince building and I live at the crown street and my first name means crown. Sorry to say that the Swedish crown is not that valuable anymore.

What if you add the numbers together, 23+111=134, do you see it? It's Pi 314 hidden in there, nice.
And 3x14=42. Hmm I've got 42 in my street address and in my phone number. You will always find what you are looking for right, or I/we do not have as much free will as we think.

Talking about 111 that reminds me of MartyLeeds33 latest video showing three spines:

https://martyleeds33.com/

I've only listened for 10min but I guess it's worth listening to. He is an interesting chap.

Fri, May 24, 2019 - 1:09pm
zman
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"The Fed cuts interest rates"

"The Fed cuts interest rates".... "is very bullish for gold" Well, I really don't think that's the case anymore. Gold needs much more than lower interest rates and more QE, been there-done that. All of that does nothing to spur inflationary trends. Gold needs the velocity of money to move higher, that's only done with FISCAL and TAX policy.

When we had a normal credit cycle, lower rates meant more lending into the general economy, those days are far gone. Lower rates now means even less credit into the general economy. I mean really, just look at the EU today with negative interest rates, how's that been working for gold priced in Euros? A massive nothing burger.

I'm sorry, but the gold bugs just don't get it at all. Negative interest rates and QE do nothing for gold. Gold needs money that enters the general economy, The Elite are NEVER going to allow that to happen. The bond market is now telling us that they're going to drain even MORE money out of the economy, it's going to get ugly.

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