The setup for the big trade

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Mon, May 6, 2019 - 9:28am
Green Lantern
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Recalibrating gold-not

Recalibrating gold-not purchasing until bull trend is confirmed in 1290ish area. Below 1230 area, rethink it all. Still a run to 1330ish area likely but too many inflections points to put on a multi-week trade. Probably wait until may 15-17 for confirmation. Once it reaches it's high, it's scalping for the rest of the summer until August when all bets are off-at least for now.

Silver, if it doesn't turn this week and rally into may 13th will revisit trade late may.

Good setup in the Euro forming.

Mon, May 6, 2019 - 4:10pm
UncleFester
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FWIW

I have noticed some tug-o-war days that seem to be following this arc, but not sure what to make of it. And there is a potential support line nearby that could coincide with GL's short term bull thesis.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zltAm6uH/

And here is a bigger picture.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/M0BghSzo/

Cheers

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Tue, May 7, 2019 - 3:12am
Solsson
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Ciao bella, I am back from

Ciao bella, I am back from Rome stayed at Hotel Fenix so I've got a new reborn mind. Remember I am walking forward in an alchemical process, more on that later.

Great posts lately, I hat tipped them all. I am super busy at the moment and/or too lazy to contribute more, but I think that would change in a near future. I've got plenty of things to post, really weird stuff. How about an analysis of my keychain (bunch of keys) haha ... it's a mini version of the Solarsystem. I told a colleague and now she is not talking to me anymore. She thinks I've completely lost it.

  • Then we got the strange spotlight phenomena
  • Room 23 very odd kundalini giant snake message
  • Room 804 Solar phenomena, what if you add a small line to the zero you will get 864, thats a Sun number.

I do not know what to call it, metaPhysics maybe. I am just a crawling baby at the moment regarding these issues.

However...

Ok this looks interesting, Silver Bull one of my 3 silver holdings:

Waiting for a new monthly doji. I think this is a good buy if you got a 2-3year investing horizon.

#Uncle F,
Isn't that a beautiful cup&handle shaping up in your chart. That looks bullish to me.

Arrivederci

Wed, May 8, 2019 - 12:29pm
zman
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Cutting off the Peasants, it's coming sooner rather than later

https://slate.com/business/2019/05/trump-poverty-line-food-stamps-medica...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-06/trump-poverty-line-in...

Yes, it's time to "Redefine poverty". The Elite aren't messing around at this point, they MUST start draining money out of the general economy to get 0% and negative rates of interest.

Does cutting off $50-100 billion per year from the spending budget really make any difference for the deficit and total debt? NO, but that's not the point here.

The point is to slow down the economy and make the velocity of money to head LOWER. It's going to be fiscal policy that pulls interest rates lower, NOT monetary policy. There's a reason why bond investors are buying bonds here, they already know what's coming because they're the one's lobbying in Washington for these policies.

What many people (most gold bugs) don't understand, bondholders aren't stupid, they actually hold the keys to the castle. They're not going to get screwed, they do the screwing. They don't get dictated too, they do they dictating. They want highly deflationary policies, so that's what we're all going to get.

First it will be cutting off the welfare/food stamps/medicaid, then they will go after social security/medicare. They have no choice in their minds, it's all about maintaining the value of debt and currency.

It doesn't even matter who's in office, there's no stopping this mission. Hell, half of US citizens will be stupid enough to cheerlead the beginnings of this "fiscal responsibility". It will be all fun and games until it hits everyone, by then it will be too late.

Check out the Gold/30 year bond RATIO, this tells the whole story. Debt is winning over hard assets and will continue to win, it has too. Once we break the Dec. 2015 low (just 8% away) the whole world will know the plan.

Wed, May 8, 2019 - 7:30pm
silver66
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Ya know Z man

when you present your arguements like you just did, you are very compelling

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Thu, May 9, 2019 - 4:30am
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Here is Zman's scenario with

Here is Zman's scenario with one addition.

As the establishment loses power to populism, they MUST reduce pressure against their system, or lose the political class who operate it for them to populists who won't cooperate.

Inflation relieves and preserves the system for political class. However, as Zman says the bond holding class want deflation.

So, if both sides get what they want, and they tend to do so, then we will have pulsations of inflation - deflation - inflation - deflation and so on in a trading range until the debt subsides or is defaulted via TIME.

Stagflation, or a beautiful deleveraging, depending upon who you happen to be: Harry Schultz or Ray Dalio.

And that's has been happening since the year 2000.

The stock market, since 2009 has absorbed fresh fiat given to corporate and banking. The bond market has absorbed the fresh deployed directly by the central banks most of the time, with stocks receiving their excess fiat flow.

Their problem? Due to asymmetrical market size, the bond market being gigantic, stocks can not contain the volume of money flowing out of bonds should that begin.

That leaves forex ...... where it is likely that historic long term volatility records will be exceeded.

In other words what they want and what they get are going to be two different things.

Zman sees this as a (economic) seige with the elites resisting unbowed. I see it as an orderly retreat from the peak of empire. but I think my scale of view is somewhat longer, so different interpretations are to be expected.

For instance: in a 150-300 year bond top - how many business cycles would pass during each individual high comprising the top? As for price, such a topping pattern would be expected to have large price swings constructing it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, May 9, 2019 - 11:22am silver66
zman
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silver66 wrote:

silver66 wrote:

when you present your arguements like you just did, you are very compelling

silver66

Thank you, but I'm just looking at what The Elite are slowly leaking to the public and nothing more. What have they said in the past three months?

1. Fed official states- 0% to negative rates should be a US policy going forward. Well, since then the Fed has gone from 3-4 rate HIKES to most likely cutting rates. And the bond market? Yields continue to go LOWER.

2. Just two weeks after giving the largest corporate tax cut in US history, puppets like Greenspan are demanding entitlement cuts because the deficits are too large now!!!

3. Janet Yellen now states the Fed should be allowed to buy corporate bonds and stocks, wow, like is there ever going to be a large PUT OPTION on the stock market?

4. Trump promises highly inflationary policies- (economic tariffs, massive infrastructure spending, immigration deportation), yet his supporters get NOTHING!

5. The Trump "booming" economy now has the velocity of money headed LOWER as Trump demands a 1% rate cut just to start.

6. Time to cut off the peasants with "redefining poverty", but wait a second- IF the economy is slowing down, wealth inequality is at a 80 year high and the velocity is header lower, shouldn't we INCREASE social spending, not DECREASE IT!!!!

7. People (most gold bugs) actually believe The Fed when they state they have a 2% inflation mandate. Why in the world would I believe these people? If I'm going with deflationary policies- of course I'm going to claim otherwise. It's called playing dumb. Do you know how easy it is to get inflation going? Just change the tax code and use fiscal policy, boom inflation!!!

As the debt grows larger The Elite must get more aggressive. When we go to permanent 0% rates, we must have a dead economy with no chance of any inflation. This means all of the "socialist" rhetoric must remain nothing more than rhetoric. Do you know who The Elite are going use to announce the news when it comes to massive social benefits cuts? A "socialist" elected politician!!!!!

How would we know if The Elite are failing with their deflationary plan? Very simple, look at the gold price and 30 year bond, or even better- the Gold/30 Year Bond Ratio!!!! It's headed lower and needs to break the Dec. 2015 low at some point down the road. My bet, it's going LOWER.

Thu, May 9, 2019 - 11:28am
Solsson
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As a Swede I am happy with

As a Swede I am happy with Gold at the moment. It's a grinding game. I've got infinite amount of stamina thanks to my new Alchemy book I need it bcos I just logged in to my portfolio and it is down -23% I have a beef with that number.

All time high for Gold priced in Swedish pesetas. My golden coin is happy at least.

Fri, May 10, 2019 - 11:11am
AccidentalTourist
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GoldMoney

Don't know if it's a harbinger, but I tried to take some funds out of my GoldMoney account but was shown "Fund Withdraw Unavailable"

Fri, May 10, 2019 - 11:58am
ancientmoney
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Fed policy has been destroying the middle class for decades...

Inflation, as we know, is NOT rising prices of goods and services.

Inflation is destruction of the currency's buying power. The Fed claims to want inflation at 2%. But this is bullshit.

If you use the true inflation statistics from the 1980's and early 1990's, before hedonics, "inflation" or rather, buying power destruction, has been between 10 and 15% per year.

Meanwhile, real wages, if you use the government's 2-3% "inflation" figure has been flat since the 1970's. But if you use pre-hedonics "inflation" figures, real wages have been driven backwards.

This is why when I was growing up, moms stayed home and raised the family. One wage earner could support a growing family. No longer.

Now, it requires two incomes to support a family--and many times that falls short.

Falling interest rates/negative interest rates do not happen in a vacuum. Many financial institutions get eaten away from the inside out. Insurance companies, banks, etc. They fail, if it continues too long (unless bailed out, and they become zombies). The middle class then gets hit once again.

At some point, the whole enchilada comes crashing down, and all your monetary "assets" revert to their intrinsic value of zero.

Fri, May 10, 2019 - 12:28pm
AGXIIK
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Starvation by Hedonics: How Chained CPI will kill millions

Leaving the doom porn headline aside, what we see in poverty line redefinition means hundreds of thousands of families will be forced off the SNAP/EBT Section 8 housing and what we derisely call the free shit railroad

The fact that a family of 4 can barely make ends meet or even wave as they go by, when the government defined inflation by hedonic adjustments to consumer good such as replacing hamburger with chicken, chicken with hamburger helper and hamburger helper with dog food, the cost increase of food and other consumables can be bent down to 2%. Try to eat on 2% inflation.

Replace new car with used; replace used car with much older used car; replace older used car with ride sharing, replaced it in the end with public transport or a bicycle. Apply enough pressure to the cost curve and it can go negative. Negative does not pay the rent that increases double digits.

The increases tucked into $2,000,000,000,000 of public assistance, public pensions, social security, medicare and other government entitlement benefits ranges from 0 to 2.7%, all based on the CPI inflation chained calculations

Reality bites when you see food going up 6% at a minimum, health care 9-12%, health and other insurance 12-25%, rent 15%, home prices 5-10%. John Williams of Shadow Stats claims inflation is 9% I tend to see that as realistic

Talking to the street; see how it impacts 45,000,000 on public assistance and 65,000,000 on social security and medicare and you have 50% of the US population cooked alive with inflation, unable to gain income traction or a means to mitigate inflation. Even the few among the lower and middle classes get, at most, 1% on their savings If they have savings . 75% of the US population doesn't have $1000 in savings.

Most people of a certain age, 60 or older, have been frog marched through 3 major wealth destruction cycles from 1992, 2001 and 2008. 3 cycles in which half of a retired person's net worth in stocks and real estate was vaporized means most people from age 45-50 and on cannot endure another major crash.

It's nearly impossible to earn your way out of a double networthectomy via salaries, pension contributions and real estate bubbles. What we see today is a cohort of 50 million Dole Geezers who are almost completely reliant on social security. SS is slated to be cut by 25% by 2034 or sooner. Medicare will be on life support by 2026.

There is another group of people on public assistance who are condemned to a lifetime of poverty. Pulling yourself up by your bootstraps works if you have boots. Millions people are homeless and and wearing Crocs found in a dumpster. Public education pulls people down. Public assistance keeps them there.

When the government, lead by Trump or some other POTUS, decides to balance the budget on the backs of the poor, touting purported savings of $200 million, that sum might seen huge to government bean counter.

To a family about to be dumped off of their meager assistance, shackled to the streets by the callousness of Chained CPI or made homeless by Torquemada's hedonics, $5-10,000 loss is monumental

Starvation by hedonics simply means that inflation eats out the substance of any government check when that check increases a stupendous 2%. The poor class cannot eat out and likely cannot eat in as the price of food rises in direct relationship to the decline in its quality. Misses meals becomes commonplace.

The hollowing out has been in play for 10 years. While the .1% rentier class has done nicely in the stock market, rise in bond values and property prices ripping higher, the 99.9% are sinking further into abject penury.

When the income gap between the top and bottom grows daily, the wealth divide turns into a Grand Canyon

The people will not stand idly by while Marie A tells them to eat day old Hostess Twinkies

Do I care about the velocity of money?

Only if I can chase it down like a Highwayman from The Good, The Bad and the Ugly, filling my saddle bags with gold and silver from the stagecoach that I arrested at gun point on a dusty wagon trail

AGXIIK

Sat, May 11, 2019 - 8:18pm
zman
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"Fed policy has been destroying the middle class for decades"

No, that's not true. The Fed didn't create the 39 year bull market in bonds. The reason why yields went down was because of deflationary policies. Globalization, immigration, tax and fiscal policy did it.

The Fed only reacts to economic conditions, it can't create it.

1. When you ship millions of good paying jobs out of the US, that destroys the middle class.

2. When you open up the southern border and allow 10-20 million illegals in to undercut wages, that destroys the middle class.

3. When you pass massive tax cuts (Reagan) and now Trump for the very rich, that destroys the middle class.

This is how the Fed funds rate went from 20% down to 0%, it's just a reaction to deflationary policies.

So now we're going to be at permanent 0% or even negative rates, this means no chance for any form of economic stimulus. This means the bottom 90% must consume even less resources. This means even more deflationary policies (cutting social benefits). Look over at the EU today, that's the US in a year or two.

Sun, May 12, 2019 - 10:47am
Solsson
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Three synchronicities this

Three synchronicities this weekend. It started on Friday I looked up my compensation hours 44.44h I looked up the number and it meant that I would be able to finish projects with great success. I've been struggling with the acceptance of my software the whole week. 20min after I saw the number 4444 the customer accepted all changes and wished me a happy weekend.

Yesterday I got the BEEF number. I had a nasty grin on my face. This time, finally I am going to beat the number 23. The girl picked up my package and asked for an ID, then things went wrong. I took out the drivers license from my wallet when I traveled to Rome. I was not able to receive the package, I went home with nothing. Number 23 won again ... sigh!

Today I went to the post office again and I really didn't want a new esoteric number so I tried to cheat the queue number machine by letting people push the button before me. I recieved number 111. 3h ago I watched the end of the European Tour with a Swede in the lead. All of a sudden the commentator said. If Marcus Kinhult wins today it's going to be the 111 Swedish victory at the European Tour.

I emailed my golfing friends about the synch, right after I sent out the email, Marcus made a back to back bogey and he was out of the winner circle, then a miracle happened and he WON ...

OMG, should have put in a major bet like 1000 pounds, 10-20times the money in 3h.

Mon, May 13, 2019 - 9:58am Green Lantern
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Green Lantern wrote:

Green Lantern wrote:

Recalibrating gold-not purchasing until bull trend is confirmed in 1290ish area.

Buy signal triggered.

Mon, May 13, 2019 - 12:43pm
ancientmoney
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"Fed policy has been destroying the middle class for decades"

Yes, it is true.

Saying the Fed only reacts to conditions does not absolve the fact. And, it has been the leading CB for the last 8 decades, since the end of WWII, so it does not just react.

The Federal Reserve was created so that the bankers and politicians they paid off (and continue to pay off) could consolidate and grow their power and control over the economy and the people.

The fiat money system is at the heart of the issue. It allows, no, requires inflation in order for the debt-based monetary system to exist, and by existing, it moves wealth from the people to the elites at the top of the system. So, removing gold from the system was another Fed (banking system) tool to maintain and grow power, control and wealth.

Sure, some good things came out of the excess creation of money, such as technological breakthroughs that actually help people live better lives.

However, the debt-based system, which was fueled by cheap oil, caused growth to far exceed what would have been called "normal" a century ago. It also caused the problem we have today of the bottom 95% owning about as much of earth's wealth as the other 5%.

If you look at the earth's population growth over the last 200 years, you see a staggering increase that coincided with the discovery of large amounts of oil and its uses, along with the fiat money system.

We are close now, I think, to the end of that money system, as it is reaching the end of its life. Debt service is approaching, if it has not already reached, it's maximum, as proven by negative interest rates in Europe, and an inability to raise rates elsewhere.

The current system, which has been called a bond bull market for the last 30+ years, is about to turn into a global jubilee, it seems, either peacefully, or not.

Mon, May 13, 2019 - 2:01pm
UncleFester
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S&P

Here is my current count on the S&P, completion of wave2 down should take us into the summer.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7yhNntzY/

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Mon, May 13, 2019 - 5:21pm
Green Lantern
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Zman,

Zman,

My only comment to the entire ‘they won’t let gold and bonds....” thread is SHOCKS to the system. Tony Plummer”Life Cycles” reviewed in the book section

Shocks, black swans, hide behind corners. They are doing nothing more than postponing economic shocks Timing of these things seem elusive

looking like indexes in steep 2 month correction Let’s see how gold moves in relation. There is a forex relationship too. It’s looking like both gold and silver have inverted cycles in short time Nobody seems to know when that is going to happen

Lets see what all those soybean farmers discuss with the family now that they don’t have China to sell it to

Lets see how many towns get completely wiped out along the Mississippi exactly 92 years to the last great Mississippi flood oF 27

Let’s see if China has any say in price while battling Washington

lets see where money comes in from shocks with euro that seem close to inevitable in the future Believe me it’s not all love between Germany France and italy

Some of these events won’t be shocking in terms of predictability but they will have wide range effects You also can’t plug a hole in a boat that you don’t know is going

Mon, May 13, 2019 - 7:37pm ancientmoney
zman
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@ancientmoney

"removing gold from the system was another Fed tool to maintain and grow power, control and wealth"

I agree 100%, it really enables the massive trade deficits and government deficits. What if US bondholders demanded gold for bonds like Germany and France did? The gold would be gone in short order. The trade deficit is a key component for creating and maintaining the massive wealth inequality.

"end of that money system, as it is reaching the end of its life"

But is it? There's only ONE thing that can hurt it- INFLATION. There's no signs of it anywhere. Also, when you have total control of fiscal and tax policy, there's no chance of inflation is you don't want it. They all know the system can't last forever, but the goal is to maintain it for another 25-30 years with deflationary policies and 0% interest rates.

"proven by negative rates in Europe"

I think it actually proves my point. Why can't they keep rates in the EU and now the US at 0% or negative for another generation? They are basically going to kill the growth and inflation rates to basically nothing. They will do this by hiking taxes and cutting benefits for the peasants. It will be a perpetual recession/depression for the bottom 85% and great times for The Elite. It's been the plan for a long time, so far it's been perfect execution.

"inability to raise rates elsewhere"

Which is perfectly fine, when rates are at 0% there's no interest payment issues. Why would they need to hike rates in the fact of the deflation they have created? They won't.

Mon, May 13, 2019 - 11:59pm
HappyNow
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I believe all this tariff

I believe all this tariff play really tax disguised as a trade war. Quite a windfall for Governments. Just another way to tax.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, May 14, 2019 - 4:38am HappyNow
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HappyNow wrote:

HappyNow wrote:

I believe all this tariff play really tax disguised as a trade war. Quite a windfall for Governments. Just another way to tax.

That.s a nice way to consider it. HappyNow.

I see a certain aspect drifting out of view in the conversation. It's this: the business cycle is a central bank cycle. The 9 18 36 cycles are sovereign cycles that cause central banks to make decisions. That is, these entities react to those cycles, they do not make them. Cause and effect must be understood.

Those sovereigns are bossed around by the biggest sovereign, and that is the source of the medium length cycles. This is saying that smaller sovereigns, weaker nations and states, are agitated by the bigger ones, which themselves have their own heartbeat.

Now.

With talk of inflation, deflation, and what "elites" want, don't forget that the last 100 years was a century of inflation.

Deflation after that is the most natural thing, UNLESS, new energy (literally energy, but wealth, or growth in people numbers can substitute) is added to the system.

But it is not reasonable to think that deflation follows inflation right away. One downswing can follow an upswing, but the bigger gestalt is for a topping period as it all grinds slowly to a stop.

Central banks, elites, governments and all the bunch of leaders of people have not the slightest control over that process. They are reactive to that which they see coming. but they may at times have "longer eyes" than we have, due to the great resources they can deploy. They are also extremely talented at ignoring their own research, their own whistleblowers, their own warning signs.

So remember: CENTRAL BANKS AND ELITES ARE REACTIVE.

If creative they would not create the stupid scenarios they themselves set up all the time, and all the tight spots they have to manipulate a way out of all the time.

Groups of humans are human. They expand to absorb opportunity, and adversity pushes them back.

Some individuals within those organizations are not a part of that "on autopilot" whole.

And the sovereigns are subject to, and not controlling, eg (rounded off) 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 150, 300 year cycles.

The tide turns and goes out after coming in. The central banks are wave machines it is true, but they are located in swimming pools, within bigger pools, within the ocean. We individuals don't have ability to get beyond their reach - police and armies and navies do what they want - but bigger waves constantly sweeping in from outside against which these central bank have machines are powerless.

Let them swing things to the wrong side of range and simply do your thing being prepared for the cheat and crooked moves as they begin to lose. Watch for fresh resources being accessed because that can prolong their game.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
randomness