The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 9:56pm
HappyNow
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ancient money - re: silver

I’d like to believe that what you started with is all like that but I can’t.

There are still piles of silver available and not consumed. Not counting all the monster boxes at the bottom of lakes waiting for $40 silver to come back.

Paper contracts and manipulation. Sure, but they wouldn’t be able to do it if there wasn’t enough silver....can you believe that somebody, many somebodies, somewhere are paying far over spot, so the paper price can be defended? Said another way, all those uses you listed for silver, are they paying the paper price or $25 an ounce? If they are paying the paper price then there is enough silver for settlement of the real demand for silver, at that price.

The US mint ‘runs out’ of Eagles every year about the same time. Buy Maples. Yes, always a silver coin available. At the paper price + dealer profit. Or if you prefer a bar from a miner like First Majestic at paper price plus profit.

So while I might like to believe it’s as you started, there’s too much silver available, at the paper price, for me to buy in rationally.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Apr 10, 2019 - 10:27pm
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Silver

Ancient,

If you're asking if silver is a good buy at these price levels, where we have arrived at the time where silver is no longer flat lining, a cycle low arrives probably tomorrow, and acknowledging there are factors indicating a steady, but humble rise over the next year or so, than silver is an amazing buy depending on how you choose to leverage it. Even a $2 dollar rise till may is something I wouldn't miss.

If you're asking was stacking large cases of silver at 40 and 50 bucks .... a very illiquid trade predicated on old narratives, hyperinflation, dollar collapse and people are playing catch up and hoping for it to rise to unseemly levels past those levels based on previous expectations/narratives, than all I can say is I'm not on that train and time will tell if the fundamentals have any value. I'll listen but I'll need more than fundamentals.

But a double from these low levels where every dollar is a healthy percentage,, leveraged properly, either through mining, options, futures, or even 2x ETF's then I'd say DEFINITELY!!! Silver might be safer to keep away from government which will do everything to track the yellow metal.

Given the choice between Silver and Uranium which has been bombed to oblivion, and could possibly go NUCLEAR, I'd have to choose Uranium because when it pops, it could really pop. Uranium is a metal just not a very stackable metal.

Thu, Apr 11, 2019 - 2:59am
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I'll do a blog article today

I'll do a blog article today showing status of some of the larger cycles in silver.

It does appear however, that the down pressure has eased off, and this could be a factor which permits medium term range trading to work. i.e. Swing trading on weekly basis. This needs looking in to, but is a different matter, though extremely relevant.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Apr 11, 2019 - 5:50am
HappyNow
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ancientmoney

Whoops. I forgot to say...the price of silver may move, and I’ve got a long position but my long position has nothing to do with the stuff you laid out at the start of your post. I’m a trader and will leave my long position when I think it’s time.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Thu, Apr 11, 2019 - 9:33am argentus maximus
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argentus maximus wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:

I'll do a blog article today showing status of some of the larger cycles in silver.

It does appear however, that the down pressure has eased off, and this could be a factor which permits medium term range trading to work. i.e. Swing trading on weekly basis. This needs looking in to, but is a different matter, though extremely relevant.

Thu, Apr 11, 2019 - 12:12pm
zman
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Thanks Larry!!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-11/kudlow-i-dont-see-rates-rising...

Yeah, but now explain how you're going to slow down the economy (inflation) IF needed in the future since monetary policy is no longer available!!!!

Yes, this is where FISCAL policy comes into play. The Elite control the tax policy and the spending of social services. This will be their only release valve down the road and will/must use it to control the economy.

If anyone thinks The Elite are going to let just sit by and watch bond yields move higher some day as they can't hike rates is completely delusional here. Just look over to Europe, there's no chance in hell inflation is ever going to be a problem.

In my opinion, after the 2020 election is when we see the real spending cuts start taking place. It won't matter who is in office, there's no choice at this point.

Thu, Apr 11, 2019 - 4:47pm
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Happy Now, GL re: silver...

I understand your points. Fundamentals do not matter in gold and silver. They are under constant suppression, as they represent the anti-dollar (anti-fiat to be more exact). So, the government/CFTC/BBs all do the bidding (er, selling) of the bankers.

All charts are painted (by bullion bank "selling" of contracts that bear no relationship to the amount of actual physical available) to keep "real" traders away from aggressive long positions. Yes, I know that is our current reality.

There is some thought that the amount of available silver is dwindling. I think that is true. But, the bankers have created ways to divert investment demand away from physical by such things as SLV (silver ETF), which accumulates silver but does not distribute it to ETF holders. Another paper shenanigan.

What concerns me the most is that JPM appears to have stockpiled 8/10ths of a billion ounces of physical silver (all at prices it manipulated lower through selling of paper contracts).

If the government/JPM are joined at the hip, and are in reality one and the same entity that desires continuation of the status quo, then JPM is likely to dole out the physical to keep the suppression game going as long as possible to keep their wealth and power intact.

Ted Butler doesn't seem to think that is the case. But, it may be simply wishful thinking on his part.

Anyway, so long as the PTB see fit to suppress PMs, and have the dry powder to do so, they will. The big question is, when does the dry powder run out?

Thu, Apr 11, 2019 - 5:52pm
Green Lantern
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Ancient money,

Ancient money,

I think everybody makes their money back and more. I also think that something very interesting is going on with gold and silver right now with cycles converging, and set ups underway with interesting synchronicities in news events, Assange today and earlier this week James Packer/Wynn deal. The cycles probably more important than the fundamentals

My post above about what we were talking about in September was a cute way of saying our own cyclical behavior was an indicator of a turn in sentiment and inflection points approaching . it’s been a long time since we could swing trade silver profitability so that’s a good sign

I look forward to reading AMs blog post because I bet ya he is seeing what’s happening with these converging cycles (gold silver dollar djia ) and how we can profit from it. I had sub 15 dollar price in mind for silver two weeks ago but not all the inflections . So the cycles are in tact and reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Thanks for your post to get the discussion rolling on silver!! Real good timing!!

Fri, Apr 12, 2019 - 12:24am
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Gann #'s Silver and Assange

Assange surrendered to UK police on 7 December 2010 but was released on bail within 10 days. Having been unsuccessful in his challenge to the extradition proceedings, he breached his bail in June 2012 and absconded.[10] He was granted asylum by Ecuador in August 2012 and remained in the Embassy of Ecuador in London until his arrest in April 2019.

August 2012 to April 2019

7 years. (approx)

“7” is the fatal number referred to many times in the Bible and it is ruled by the planet Saturn, which brings about contractions, depression and panics.

Seven times 7 equals 49, which is shown as a fatal year, causing extreme fluctuations.”

Assange will be 49 years old in 2020. 7x7=49

There is another angle to the narrative of the Schemitah. That is that seventh Schemitah (every 7 x 7 = 49 years) can be "a big one"! Pay attention to this period for anniversaries of turbulent events past. Am

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/6216/severn-year-shemitah-or-shmita-...

When did the bear market begin in silver?

U might think it is the first big decline in the pink box but then it became a sideways market.

if I use Gann Rules to determine the trend from his commodities book,

it was not until late 2012 where the Silver market made its first lower top and lower bottom – this is the indication that the trend has turned down and that a bear market had commenced.

There is something wrong with the ratio of the boxes, that could be me choosing the wrong beginning of each phase of the bear, or the long term effect of manipulation on flattening the cycles.... I don't know. But the synchronicity of Assange's release and the arrival of a low in the cycle is coordinated. (doesn't mean additional selling can't occur)

the length of the bear market according to Gann rules, 3 and sometimes 4 waves down is 7 years here, without looking at the longer terms cycles in play

*Year seven is a bear year

* Year eight is a bull year. Prices start advancing in the seventh year and reach the 90th month of the decade in the eighth year. This is very positive and a good advance usually takes place in this year.

I don't believe that the Suppression of prices creates a bear market but flattens the cycle??? There is a 13 - 14 week cycle... as well as a, ~7-Week cycle Progression that has been working fine in this market.

Thus we are looking at a top around 2nd week of may before the next correction.... Requires some more indicators to confirm

Sun, Apr 14, 2019 - 6:34pm
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Weekend post in the AM Blog

I posted an article in the AM Blog today.

If interested, here's a shortcut link :

Popular Sentiment - Psychology of The Zeitgeist.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 8:22am
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Social mood and sentiment posts

Thanks very much to everybody who gave feedback to my request a week ago.

It is very time consuming, but I decided to keep these posts going.

However they are a great distraction from the commodities, charts, gold, silver and all.

So I will separate the sentiment stuff into a different stream. that might be here, but with a readily identifiable header to those posts.

Or I might take them into a different forum thread - not crazy about that - dilution of effort matters.

I am thinking about what alternative is better and will follow up when I get up to date on other pressing matters.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 9:23am
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Weekend Blog article cont. periodic burnings in Paris

We have observed mainstream media not talking about what goes on in Paris (and elsewhere). They're talking about that location now. But the reason is for a different cause.

We know to look at dates and look for rhythmic humanity waves. Think about cycles, and locations. I said as much less than three years ago right here (or in an RNP webinar possibly).

83,901 days to yesterday. Also, within the current year it was 105th day of 2019, while means there's 260 days remaining.

Notably, in only three years time from now it will be 233 years since this:

Three years still to go before that and events have already gotten to this stage. It's likely that 2022 will be something to behold indeed.

Maybe even more dramatic for Japan, but nobody can know these things, right?

November btw.

Sometimes you need to be jostled into thinking bigger than usual day to day clutter and constraint make easy.

Macron, Macron, Macron, clap, clap, clap ....

Last time Notre Dame was damaged was WWII, in 1944 a few stray bullets broke stained glass windows. So let's tie in WWII events if they mesh.

Regarding initiation of WWII, it's 86 years since the burning of the Reichstag in 1933. Afterwards the Nazis blamed the Communists, discredited them, and took control of all of the left and began their takeover of all of Germany.

In three years time, the year 2022 that will be 89 years ago. It will also be 233 years after the storming of the bastille, which initiated the French Revolution, or if initiation is undocumented, was an early escalation in it.

Here is an interesting Fox news clip from Tony Heller:

Fox News Censoring Free Speech

It's almost like the commentator was mentioning possible guilty people to blame, who are not supposed to get the blame. Surely not. Don't be curious. Don't speculate. Wait until the news tells you the thing you need to know.

I'm sure the official investigation will identify the people telling us with clarity and certainty who we can safely assume did the church roof thing. And society can make them pay if they are bad.

The 86 years was 31,468 days ago. Sorry for jumping back and forwards. I'm a bit distracted, being hungry, and am wondering if there's some pie left in the fridge I could have for lunch. Pie, right. Pi ....

How many weeks have the western media been quiet about the French peoples' protests on the streets? They'll cover the story of Notre Dame's fire. But cycles point to interactions between Japan, Germany and France ..... possibly plus other sovereign partners, and with a following wave in 2022.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 9:25am
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Shepard Smith on Fox News shut down a French commentator

who yesterday speculated that the cause was possible the same group who have vandalized French churches. Yellow vests have not come up yet but Macron or his handlers will and soon enough Blame must be laid at the feet of someone.

AGXIIK

Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 9:40am
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@AGXIIK

it may be accident or not. But some will be tempted to place blame upon heads of somebody they don't like, or on a competitor eg in politics. That temptation is always there as evidenced by the well known realpolitik or Machiavellian adage "Never let a good disaster go to waste".

Whatever, the fire can be accidental, a massive workplace incident, since restoration works were in progress, as evidenced by the massive scaffolding around the building.

Such accidents seem to come in rhythmic sequences and that's what I mentioned in my post, especially since there would be a future rhythm three years from now should this eventually be the case with this national disaster for the French people.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Apr 16, 2019 - 4:08pm
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Social trends

Go to wikipedia, look up Gamergate, and read this:

"...The Gamergate controversy stemmed from a harassment campaign conducted primarily through the use of the hashtag #GamerGate. The controversy centered on issues pf sexism and progressivism in video game culture. Gamergate is used as a blanket term for the controversy as well as for the harassment campaign and actions of those participating in it.... "

Well that's a whopper of a lie right in the first sentence. For that I name you "wokipeedya". That opening sentence is a leftist propaganda message.

The information and edit process is controlled by progressivist moderation groups of people, who adjust the story to their wishes. But Gamers were not about to roll over and take it. They lose their only niche if they do. So they dug in and fired back at the attack.

Progressives want to eradicate a remaining bastion of maleness, gaming and sci fi being male users/audiences to a significant (but not exclusive) extent.

So, as with the taking over education to "capture them young", the extreme (far left, loony left) leftist game journalists collaborated with each other in private chat forums to do coordinated attacks on prominent gamers, and games, with the intent of getting game development corporations to alter their product, making it "less mysogynist", or more feminized if you prefer.

Screenshots of these often denied media plottingsbehind the scenes were published.

Thus, for example, comic publishers, recruited diversity hire writers and artists, with reduced skill and expertise, and sales started to fall.

Male hero characters were converted overnight to being female or gay, because writers are too lazy go to the trouble of creating new heroic female, POC, and gay characters. They are political workers first and fiction writers second in their own minds.

For example Iceman, who had girlfriends in earlier stories became gay instantly. This is called retro conversion of characters and it destroys the literature describing the universe of that character by rewriting history.

And rewriting history is an obvious tactic.

And readers reacted. they complained, some stopped buying the products, and later on, stopped going to these "woke" movies.

The feminist media accused protestors of being "hateful" against women, minorities, non white people, etc insinuating that they were white supremacists. by quoting each other's reports they created out of nothing a body of reportage that seems based on real evidence. Also, the complainants are white, black, brown, male, female, gay, everything. But the journalists pretend all those people do not exist because all non white non males are assumed to agree wit them and must not be acknowledged.

The FBI investigated Gamergate accusations and found no criminal activity.

The game and movie journalists still accuse and smear today. The gamers (who stood their ground first in this cultural war) refused to give.

But that first sentence still describes Gamergate in wokipeedya and that tells you all you need to know about relying on it.

That's the history of gamergate in a nutshell, not what wikipedia and it's activist press contributors say.

So. Right now. Would you like to see realtime, a sci fi journalist panic and shut down an interview with a voice actor, that's going the wrong direction?

3.5 minutes - It's about StarWars The Last Jedi, made by Disney, a behemoth the criticism of which can hurt a journalist's career and which has a BIG advertising budget to swing about like a cavemans' club. So the media conform and serve . But their interviews are with real people and sometimes they go wrong.

Enjoy his discomfort and dismay at having to act in the open and be seen doing his thing:

SPEECHLESS!! STAR WARS ACTOR Tom “ADMIRAL ACKBAR” Kane INCINERATES The Last Jedi LIVE ON STAGE!

These media are liars. (Not all media!) However, the time is here, sentiment is mobile for a while. Speak up. Spread the insight via visual examples that work (eventually), not factual arguments (that don't).

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Apr 17, 2019 - 11:38pm
HappyNow
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Because the extreme left

Because the extreme left draws a share of people who seem to care, but are misguided, and it kinda blows my mind (I used to hang with left extreme at one time) I came across this recent piece by Jordan Peterson.

It’s long but the explanation is in the first bit. Also I didn’t know Peterson had done work on The Bible. I’ll look in to that.

Advantage on this link is they have transcribed most of the interview so you can scan/read it.

https://www.dailysignal.com/2019/04/08/jordan-peterson-explains-what-dra...

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Thu, Apr 18, 2019 - 1:42am argentus maximus
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Tom Kane

AM your clip is one of those where the narrator loves to hear himself speak and I never found the Tom Kane bit. I think the following is the kernel where the interviewing journalist reacts by changing topic.

Tom Kane's opinion on the death of Ackbar (TLJ) - Star Wars Celebration Orlando 2019

P.S. I'm still waiting for Mary Marvel to be resurrected!

“Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” ― Albert Camus
Thu, Apr 18, 2019 - 5:29am
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It's called losing control of the narrative

It's called losing control of the narrative in niche areas (where opposition, due to being specialized, is also concentrated).

In military strategy it would be losing pockets of territory to pockets of concentrated resistance.

And it has the same underlying meaning.

Gamergate was the first (societally broad) episode I noticed, then I looked for it to go into StarWars and sci fi movie audiences if it was spreading. And it did. Star Wars the Last Jedi was not a temporary setback failure for Disney, it was an highly damaging failure.

The following Star Wars movie "Solo" lost money. This in a franchise Disney paid four billion to buy! they can't even sell toys from Solo. What's that 4 B worth now?

They forced or negotiated with Rotten Tomatoes to "save" their Captain Marvel movie (in the Marvel Universe) from the same public individual critics. And I watched RT delete 43000 public audience votes overnight for Captain Marvel.

So that's another 43,000 of the public, plus their friends, who know what is going on in this info manip PR mission to push gender weaponized anti hetero male subversive far left memology.

It spreads instead of being contained. Think about this in a military way and what it means to the far leftist strategists.

It's information. If people begin to laugh at them, their messaging will lose potency AND THERE'S NOTHING THEY CAN DO EXCEPT BAN, REMOVE, DELETE THE CRITICS AS FAST AS THEY CAN.

And that is what all this "safe internet" BS is all about. If you understand what inflection recently passed, it is time to do what the people most feared by the far left are doing.

Ridicule their absurdity in public, loud and often,, because that is visible to normies middle who just want to get on with life unbothered by this - just for a little while. But nobody wants to be laughed at. They think twice about allowing that to occur.

Ask them what about Rotten Tomatoes? They won't know. Tell them about eg Captain Marvel going from 18% want to see to 59% approved, by removal of votes in the thousands and posting of thousands of positive 5 star votes that replicated each other. Say you didn't think modern feminists had gathered that much power, and would use in such a ruthless way, and it opened your eyes that they are a different kind of movement, and Disney let it happen, and then shut up!

Remember facts don't work. I have a hard time with that part being data driven but it's feels and personal worth, greed, fear, pride that work.

Go to Vox Day and see how he deals with them. You don't have to like Vox but watch what he does. He classifies them as "Gammas" ie below alpha, beta, delta personality types, and diminishes their social worth though acknowledging their intelligence. (Not all gammas are SJW of course) They leave him alone but hate him with a fervour. Check out his Wokipeedya page. Read the first sentence, hover over the citations to pop their headline up and see the conversion of alt right into far right into white supremacist, via citation selectivity, all in one sentence. That's not a random choice of citations!

By the way, Vox Day's book "SJWs Always Lie" is reading anybody of the centre should already have done by now. His critique of Jordan Peterson is in summary similar to my own estimation of what Peterson is and does. A catch net for disaffected males leaving a toxic far left that rejects their self worth to stop them moving to the right. Peterson attempts to catch the flight, stabilise them, give them individuality , (which stops them moving to any group on the right which would weaponize them as a potent group, army of followers, etc.

What is required is an effective centre group which can ally with the right temporarily to dismiss the extreme left.

And that's something that AI in social media is effectively preventing at this moment, see my AM Blog post Psychology of The Zeitgeist and this graph posted in comments below it:

(Thx for such manipulation Twtr and FBk and mobile device tech! ) This shows clearly that the oligarch-information-managing class (who have alliances in the political class (witness both Rep and Dem parties opposed Trump, Ron Paul, Perot getting media shunning and/or opposition) do not want a strong middle or centre in society. But at inflections it is the job of the aware to pass this on if a window of awareness is open.

Because cycles, as I use them, allow a more independent viewpoint, but I still have to act after waiting for a good time. Being a little independent and less "hooked in to the peer pressure" does not mean taking no action.

And the markets set a level at this time which will take great force to break at later stages.

PS: If going to www.voxday dot blogspot dot com if safe browsing is enabled a warning screen will appear, courtesy of the SJW infestation at G000000gel. Don't be surprised when it appears and learn a bit more from its presence.

Use a different search engine, a different browser than Chrome (or Firefox which is also fully converged and even stated publicly they are no longer a meritocracy). I am currently using Brave which is ok but subject to some Chromefology.

Sheesh! Is this a commodity forum? Real value money thread in it? And I end up talking about this stuff? Society is truly twisted. But it is what it is and we have to live in it.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Apr 18, 2019 - 7:11am
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PS

I know gamma comes before delta in the greek alphabet. Some of these classifications originate in the online dating blogosphere and got shuffled around during evolution of the ideas.

Here is a link : https://voxday.blogspot.com/2010/01/roissy-and-limits-of-game.html

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Apr 18, 2019 - 8:28am
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gamma

Alpha, beta, gamma, delta, epsilon

Nothing new under the sun Mr. Aldous Huxley.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.

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by AGXIIK, Oct 20, 2019 - 5:58pm
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