The setup for the big trade

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Sat, Feb 9, 2019 - 1:02am
Silver_Surfer
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While AM and GL are better

While AM and GL are better traders than I, I have to admit I'm still in the bear camp. (A man most trade on his own judgement doesn't he. :) )

Log chart looks like a rising wedge to me, both attempts to break the upper resistance have failed. Head and shoulders top is likely imho. Weekly candle has an ugly upper wick but hasn't decisively broken lower timeframe support.

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Sat, Feb 9, 2019 - 8:48am
Green Lantern
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Hi Silver Surfer,

Hi Silver Surfer,

Thanks for sharing that. I will work on some charts this weekend. Looking at past and future pivot points, there looks like a major change of direction on march 12th. And there are smaller pivots this month including a possible decline moving into Mon. 11th with the opposite trend after into Tue. 12th??If this decline extends beyond 3 sessions, then I'd worry about a correction phase.

For now, I'll just highlight 2 of Am's comments.

Geopolitical actions will congregate in that region now.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/us-in-talks-with-india-over-mi...

and secondary signalling, confirmation, or even overcoming of the signals thus far present.

Hmm... Other than or including pivot and reversal levels??

alot of exercises involved here...

also, maybe at some point we can toss around how these geopolitical realities translate into currency issues, capital flows, market realities etc.... Because Am is one of the few people you'll hear incorporating them and u don't get them in any technical analysis books. With all the focus on Trunp/Pelosi and similar, there is almost a blackout on evolving geopolitical realities, and me thinks the guy who knows where to look is the guy that finds the good trades.

Elections coming up in India and I see no two Indians can agree on what it means. Kind of like American politics.

(i have no idea why some of the words got bolded. No emphasis intended)

Sat, Feb 9, 2019 - 12:34pm
Solsson
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My 2c

I am just guessing of course. The Swedish EW expert is short term bearish India, but a long term super bull ...

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7872/46986887002_41a84f37c7_b.jpg

Sat, Feb 9, 2019 - 7:03pm
HappyNow
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Solsson,

Solsson,

I am jealous that you see the Northern Lights so frequently. I live in Canada, but too far south and have only seen them twice :(

Also, a ghost pattern, the best to scare us away! Totally original. Thanks for sharing.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Sat, Feb 9, 2019 - 10:02pm
Green Lantern
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Solsson,

Solsson,

Silver66 posted about alot of people having sleep difficulties and not feeling right in the other forum. People might be feeling general "malaise" Irritable etc... Those lights have an electromagnetic effect on people( which comprise markets. ) my anecdotal survey, same as Silver66

Sat, Feb 9, 2019 - 10:08pm
Green Lantern
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Well, the reason I say that

Well, the reason I say that the market is in a bullish tone is because of these Gann Sections on a monthly . Instead of using Elliot Wave, which is inside the sections, to simplify, Gann describe the market movements in “sections” whereas Elliott referred to them as “waves” which included the movements that were made against the trend. I just block off 5 waves up, and 3 waves down. If I did it correctly, the last box would have to be significantly shorter in price and tine to indicate a change in trend. Not clear yet if that box is growing or we get three waves down but it's big enough already which implies upward momentum.

I started noting sone “biblical” cycles which are all over the place, and extended it out to the future, which looks like it got cut off.

here is the March 12th, change of direction (angle)/inflection. Obviously have to look at price factors.

There is another head in shoulders in there but, it’s inverse.

I an just trying to confirm the direction of the trend and right now until it breaches the daily, the market is bullish on daily, weekly and monthly.

I would give 3 non-technical reasons why I believe this market remains in a bullish tone although needing to watch for pull backs and violating resistance……

1)Given Festors post on the lowering of interest rates, the correlation of SPX (which everybody is yelling it’s fake) which implies CB’s have fun in India too????although not exactly sure what’s going on there and all the geopolitical implications. .

  1. Coincidentally, One of the traders I read on occasion, magically put out a similar riddle a day apart from Am where he purchased 35 contracts-somebody estimated .7 million dollar trade, obviously see’s something too. Two professional traders, not including all the full time Indian Nifty analysts, see something big happening here. So whichever way this market flies, there is sone serious bullion looking at this trade and it ain’t the chicken type. Unfortunately, trading view has no volume charts for Nifty. His Readers look like they are split between bullish posture and bearish posture, however, when I see bears posting wedges with only 3 contact points, I’n inclined not to listen. Silver Surfer had the requisite 5 contacts for that pattern.

3.) When somebody has been posting in a forum (5 or 6 years? ) primary gold, with some coverage of other markets, and suddenly places a foreign trade riddle with supporting evidence of something big happening, your ears perk up because it’s out of the ordinary. And, there is always a rhyme to his reasoning.

I’ll watch what happens Monday. We’ll see if that fourth box is expanding, or we have three waves down before the next leg up. But if that box expands, we have something really serious going on in that market and it looks like possibly out to 2020/2021, possibly sone kind of unusual event that happened in the DOW in 1920’s. And maybe 4 or 5 tines since.

I think the answer to this riddle, lies in figuring out what’s happening in that red “tunnel” which I marked on Am’s chart. Looks pretty happy in that channel and not looking to crawl out below. But I have to figure what those to lines represent. Guesses for now.

Sun, Feb 10, 2019 - 9:55pm argentus maximus
SteveW
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Hoaxed

"Controlling exactly what people think, and that's our job" Mika Brzezinski; morning Joe.

Mika Brzezinski Our Job Is to Control Exactly What People Think

I'm glad they included this clip. I couldn't really believe it when I originally saw it, thank goodness for live TV. It's so flagrant, outrageous and so true.

“Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend.” ― Albert Camus
Sun, Feb 10, 2019 - 11:29pm
Green Lantern
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An interesting find as I was

An interesting find as I was researching long term cycles in the Nifty market. One to ponder..... Back in 2014, one Norman Greene put on the public record, that" Nifty could be one of the greatest trades of our lives" It came along with some references to invisible cycles operating in that market.

The natural question seems to me, did we all miss an opportunity whose time has come and gone? It has been an impressive run , OR did a black cat just enter the matrix

The Matrix - Deja vu

Has anybody ever heard of Constructive Interference when two waves come together, interfering constructively, and then continuing to travel as if they'd never encountered each other?

It happens in the case of Gigantic killer waves and even in markets.

The funny thing about tsunamis', even with the warning signs, most get caught off guard and never see it coming.

automation-induced complacency

Mon, Feb 11, 2019 - 6:34pm
silver66
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Hey AM et al

Is this how you envisioned gold being positioned for events in the pipeline?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-11/salvini-suggests-seizing-contr...

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 1:19am
Pete
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gold uncertain as the USD strengthens

The USD is looking much stronger now that some technical bearish patterns and possibilities have been negated by last week's trading. Meanwhile, gold trades narrowly, bouncing around in AR patterns per this hourly chart. Some daily lines are coming up from below and gold may get a stronger bid off of them.

Nothing has yet developed to put 1370.50 (the 2018 high) out of gold's reach.

Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 11:19am
Green Lantern
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nifty now bearish on the

nifty now bearish on the daily.. correction phase...good bearish set-up. Golden Cross, the 50 d moving average crosses above the 200. 2 directional changes ahead bringing us to the main turning points. yearly bullish patterns don't change.

Longer implications of this market still unresolved.

Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 11:59am
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It's pivot creation

It has capacity to harden the price level

Of course, this has quite different implications flowing from the status of whether price is above or below the pivot.

VAP will inform as time passes. But the wedge can be a topping pattern, or a cascading 1,2,i,ii preparing to go into iii, of 3 up. In which case the punters can be in a 50:50 balance. That would be important because it is the unfortunates that find themselves on the wrong side buying or selling to get out, and then buying or selling to get back inline, it is those extra trades and their volume that cause a significant price swing to emerge from a smaller break ignition stage.

Getting back to the wedge formation. Wedges as I said can be continuation or reversal patterns. But wedges also have a tendency to morph via small false breaks into becoming a bigger wedge, before resolution.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Feb 12, 2019 - 2:37pm argentus maximus
Green Lantern
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argentus maximus wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:

Getting back to the wedge formation. Wedges as I said can be continuation or reversal patterns. But wedges also have a tendency to morph via small false breaks into becoming a bigger wedge, before resolution.

my guess was a continuation making the 5 waves up longer, than this morning, I was thinking reversal. So I gotta watch and learn.

Thu, Feb 14, 2019 - 9:52pm
silver66
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sometimes a Keynesian and sometimes an Austrian

Bloomberg is reporting the Oracle of Omaha has made some interesting moves.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/buffett-doubles-down-...

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Sun, Feb 17, 2019 - 4:32pm
Silver_Surfer
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Do or die

Do or die for the S&P. February 13 was a possible inflection day and price closed higher. However, we are still under the January 16 2018 close (Carillion's collapse) which I view as a crucial date/price level.

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Wed, Feb 20, 2019 - 1:19am
Pete
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my 2c

ESH9 ends with essentially a doji today (ignoring US holiday trade) under key line confluence. RSI 14 hit 70. Latest ml divergence. Also just inside the typical Fibonacci time and price zone for a wave 2 terminus relative to wave 1 (per Robert Miner). We shall see.

Wed, Feb 20, 2019 - 9:14pm
Pete
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FWIW

Miles Wilson Walker published a CD in 2007 called Gann's Master Time Factor, which included several ways of using astrological data in trading. The simplest of the methods on the CD might apply to the current situation in ES.

The attached chart shows the position of the planets on the day of the recent weekly low, Dec 26, 2018. The method has one identify the very close aspects to the slow planets on that day; then one watches day by day for when the faster moving planets (Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter) make a conjunction with the slow planet that was in "hard" aspect the day of the low. The moon is not used.

There can be more that one hard aspect to a heavy planet of course. The primary concern with this method is shorter term cycles. In this case, hard aspects were made to Pluto, Uranus, and the North Node, but future conjunctions by fast planets to the latter two are too far away in time.

With the software (free download as Astrolog 5.40), one can progress the chart day by day. In this case, the Sun and Mercury reach Pluto in succession, and then Venus. The key is when the last of the fast (and available) planets reach Pluto, in this case Venus, the trend may reverse. MWW calls this "the last to come round."

I note that on 1/11 and 1/19, the days that Sun and Mercury reached Pluto, the uptrend stalled for at least two trading days. These two planets are not the last to "go round" (Venus is), but the hesitation in the trend enhances the probability that Feb 23, when the last to go round reaches Pluto, there will be a more significant turn--even maybe a major top.

This tech may be a useful adjunct to other methods.

If the "last" conjunction happens on a weekend, one uses the Friday before or the Monday after as the possible turn day. MWW's trigger for a short position was a violation of the intraday low of the peak day. In this case, his method has us watching for a new high on either Friday or Monday, followed by a break of the intraday low of the high day.

Tue, Feb 26, 2019 - 4:17am
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The culture war has entered a new phase

It must be almost a year since I first brought this to the attention of you, here in Setup forum. (In the Star Wars discussion)

And I also said that massive change should be expected at end of 2018 to mid January 2019. Been saying since 2013 we would have to wait till now for the next phase.

Now I appreciate that tunnel vision (a "Just tell me what to buy what to sell and then shut up!" attitude) can prevent many from seeing the plethora of signs showing what and when to invest in and these signs are ALL AROUND US ALL THE TIME.

So with that in mind, let us go to the upcoming Captain Marvel movie, which stars the outspoken feminist Brie Larsen in the titular part.

This is the same Brie Larsen who has hated on white men for a year, and continued to do so while touring the pre-release promotion interview circuit.

... and white men and all men comprise over 60% of the audience for super hero movies .....

So how is that going for Marvel and Disney?

Well, yesterday, on Rotten Tomatoes, the vote for "Want to see " or "Don't want to see" was hitting a low 26% want to see with over forty three thousand votes cast. That's down from an original 96% want to see vote before Larsen shouted her sexist mouth off at the audience.

96% support to 26% support is some achievement for an SJW in full rampage mode. And she is trying to dial it back now, saying "What I really meant was .... ". Yeah sure. We got the message loud and clear what you and your anti men sexist feminist ideology really want Ms Larsen, SJW, millionairess, actress.

And, Brie Larsen and Marvel, who put her up to this - to grab leftist feminist side viewers in a cynical political voting audience marketing ploy - what we no longer want is your contaminated movie.

There are other better movies to watch, and Alita Battle Angel, with a different better female super hero is totally going down as the exciting successful movie you wanted Marvel to be with male and female audiences.

So in the meantime readers you might like to be aware that yesterday the Rotten Tomato website showed the Captain Marvel movie with 26% "Want to see". Those are not reviews by the way but votes of intention by audience members before the movie comes out, and "Don't want to see" had 30000+ votes yesterday.

Not today!

The RT website is changed overnight. The Don't want to see vote has disappeared.

Spread the message far and wide that Rotten Tomatoes - a vote aggregator site - deleted 30000 audience votes to save this racist bigoted clique of hollywood freaks and their 100+ million dollar product from economic destruction.

Even the movie cat is more popular than Brie Larsen at this stage.

Captain Marvel Rotten Tomatoes Silenced! Is The Audience Score Next?
BRIE LARSON IS KILLING CAPTAIN MARVEL BEFORE IT'S EVEN OUT! ROTTEN TOMATOES DOWN TO 27%!
Captain Marvel Being Protected - Rotten Tomatoes Gives Laughable Explanation

You see .... the war in the gold market is also on the street, in the cinema, in boardrooms, and even being fought on battlefields.

I could have posted about hostile intervention within Venezuela by large empire building neocon controlled entities. But that while different words would be duplication, because as the crazy racist SJWs get called out and rejected, so are the warmongering Neocons getting the same treatment.

I told you long ago, and repeatededly that things are interconnected like it's hard to believe.

Here is the truth. All is connected. You just didn't notice that before now because you (and I and everybody) were educated to put things into separate (mental) boxes or categories before weighing their merits.

So The Mouse has spoken to Rotten Tomato and the tomato went splat on us

Expect mainstream media to run stories supporting RT's action to push back against bad fans, bad trolls, russian bots, sexist male aliens etc etc etc. Mark who does that and know that this also informs you about their reliability for business news about finance. Block their ads, never click on their links, observe prices decline as they praise the asset and remember that, and move to a higher level in your own investment cycle.

... and ... since normal anti racist anti sexist people can no longer disapprove of this racism and sexism behaviour by actors and actresses on Rotten Tomatoes, pass the message on to your friends directly. Alita is the female superhero movie to pay to see, not Captain Marvel.

Starve the enemy. And, it's a pity, it might have been a good movie if they hadn't crapped their (misandrous) sexist + inverted-KKK bigotry message all over it.

But above all, notice the willingness of ordinary people to accept this since 2019 began. In Radio Times, feminist Dr Who is now promoting a lesbian relationship storyline between the woman Dr Who who can't act and her companion who can't act.

Nothing wrong with that, until you remember this used to be family viewing and sex, politics had no place in it. They said all they wanted was a female in the Dr Who main role. How long was that enough? Sorry hetero ladies, it's not your TV series either unless you're a smaller subset of women. They took it from you too.

There are financial cycles in these entertainment train wreck events if you look for them. I'll give it to subscribers directly in finished form, but Setup readers actually have the necessary raw material if an investigation of the history of the corporations and brands in question is made. Comparisons to stock prices, bond prices and gold prices confirms which dates matter.

(I know only a few will bother. So here is a lick of the ice cream for the lazy to encourage doing some looking and thinking. A carrot of positive kind to motivate.

Star Wars began 42 years ago and became a dumpster fire recently.

Which would be 2 x 21 year cycles.

Which could have something to do with 4 x 10.8 year cycles.

And a 10.8 might have 2 x 5.25 year cycles inside it.

Now go to gold, or eg US stocks and see what you see.

Of course a 5 1/4 plus a half of the next 5 1/4 would be : 5.25 + 2.6 = something getting close to eight years. When did gold top?

This does not certify to the lazy that a a bottom is made, rather an opportunity for a minor low to evolve and grow up into a larger low is present. Watch it grow and be aware of it's potential. And be aware then (to borrow from the plant world) not every acorn becomes a giant oak tree. But every giant oak tree was once an acorn. That's how it is.

And that's how these popular pushbacks of sentiment against corporate and political and militaristic corruption are too.

When I posted this discussion it was off the charts info last year - going onto the charts now.

How is that Disney stock doing? Is there a Brie Larsen stock? A Dr Who stock? What would be connected to it if there was. Do Marxist professors have a tradeable asset? The UK state owned BBC who Tommy Robinson exposed for fake news creation last weekend (search the video and watch it or a precis as it won't make the MSM news and will be suppressed)? How about Neocon owned entities .... ? Who serves those groups and stands to lose? MSM?

Remember the pig won't leave the trough without a struggle and a lot of noise.

Investment is like that but we get lured into observing reports so much we fail to notice the farmer's hand grabbing the pigs one at a time. Amazingly.

But that's what all the perception work is for. I know the lazy dismiss it as not actionable information but that's life. You see, everything I posted here, though apparently varying subjects, that's all connected too.

Today SJWs going full retard, tomorrow people who were intimidated into silence are speaking out, afterwards corporation are having to change or go bust.

Inflections.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Feb 26, 2019 - 5:08am
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A good video comment on feedback loops

A good video comment on feedback loops as the SJW Marvel Captain Marvel movie fire engulfs Rotten Tomatoes.

Captain Marvel VANQUISHES Rotten Tomatoes!!!

By the way , if my commentary on feminism seems negative to the sensitive of emotion I want to be absolutely clear:

I'm all for treating women as equals. I don't agree with positive discrimination which is repeating an earlier mistake in inverted form.

I regard feminism as a movement taken over and converted to serve social justice politics, and my comments therefore refer to neofeminism.

Unfortunately this leaves feminists without a movement controlled by themselves. But like many perception matters, most feminists have not yet noticed this change for the worse in the people who claim to represent them, and what is being done with feminism by it's new Marxist leadership.

Vox Day's book "SJWs Always Lie" might be informative on this subject, as does his book "SJWs Always Double Down".

Note that I reached to the right to find an observant author on the problems of SJW captured neo-feminism which is leftist.

The politics of the author does not invalidate his accuracy on the subject matter.

As it happens in the past I have reached to the left to find observant commentary on matters that are right-side dominated. And I noticed a certain reluctance by some readers to accept the comments advanced at that time. if the knowledge is good take it regardless of the source.

If you only look at half of the knowledge available out there, you're 50% less likely to find the bit you really want or need to find. Don't censor your eyes or mind in the future because somebody in your past caused to to do this.

Did that really need to be said? Apparently yes.

Whatever, Jesse Milestone's video crosses boundaries between movie reviews and real life, and Vox Day's observations on SJWs are the best most succinct I have found, and all feminists should read them

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Feb 26, 2019 - 4:05pm
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GLD VAP hints

If you look carefully, it can be seen that at the end of 2018, when I hoped for a low and second prime entry price, GLD broke through the VAP resistance (which is not all that visible using technical analysis).

The breakthrough occurred at exactly the time I had previously told readers of Setup to pay special attention.

The VAP 119.58 is now is hardening into support.

So the realtime (monthly) trading range is possibly now between the VAP peak and the VAP low above it, but the upper range edge is not precisely indicated by this particular tool, merely hinted at.

The Andrews forks and other tools may (hopefully) help confirm this hypothesis before the next retracement to buying levels.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets

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