The setup for the big trade

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Fri, Jan 4, 2019 - 12:41pm
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A brief update

The first 2019 RNP webinar's in a couple of hours from now are in you should have got an email with details.

We have guests at home and time allocation is more constrained than usual. Apologies for the intermittent posts over XMas - to - New Year "gap". But ... is New Year now or three months from now? That depends upon which calendar you use. Which one is best? All of them! Refer to "calendar posts", and think about some of the major religions, and societies before religions, and the great timepieces they built.

Normal Setup posts will resume then, and I have a draft essay for the AM Blog in the works - I should finish that one tomorrow and I'll post a link here in Setup.

Markets may be lively for a while. Funnymental valuation factors are shifting.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 7, 2019 - 12:00pm
zman
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Thanks for the warning!

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-fat-years-of-high-tax-revenue-are-over-fi...

Well, as asset prices decline and the economies slowdown, we're going to see a massive decline in tax revenues. So are we going to see big deficits to makeup the difference? Not in the EU, we're going to see massive cuts for social programs.

But the US would never cut off the peasants and will just run $2-3 trillion deficits to makeup the difference, right? Nope, not this time around. The bondholders will make the rules, their goal is fiscal austerity- not "printing money" or "inflating the debt away".

I wonder how happy EU citizens will be when they get cut off and have to share the crumbs with millions of migrants that don't even belong in their nation. Everyone is charitable until it hits their own lifestyle.

Mon, Jan 7, 2019 - 1:39pm
silver66
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interesting resignation

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Mon, Jan 7, 2019 - 9:24pm
Pete
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DX today

Following up to a prior post: DX today closed below the turn at R1 level, negating immediate dollar bullishness to new highs, and opening the way for a possible decline to the ML (typical target in a 2nd H bounce pattern at the MLH) and maybe even further.

Should prove helpful to gold bulls.

Retest of the Sep 2018 low in DX?

Tue, Jan 8, 2019 - 5:55pm
zman
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Weaker dollar??

For the sake of argument lets say the US dollar is starting a new downtrend, would it be gold bullish? Not really in my opinion, just because the Fed is claiming to stop hiking rates- that doesn't mean there's a need to buy a inflationary hedge at almost $1300 oz.

A weaker US dollar would most likely bring the US stock market to new all-time highs and help the global stock markets as well. That would also flow money back into stocks and out of gold.

IF there was inflation that the Fed couldn't defend with higher interest rates, THEN gold could move into a bull market, but that's NOT the case today.

I just can't understand the fear of run away inflation from the gold "experts" here, the elite are NEVER going to let money flow into the real economy. In fact, the plan is the complete opposite. People have to realize that the elite control BOTH fiscal and monetary policy today, they're not going to screw themselves.

Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 1:21pm
silver66
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good short video

Hope everyone finds this of interest

Two things that caught my attention this week, 1/6/19

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Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 1:37pm silver66
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It seems that behind the

It seems that behind the facade staff lines are being redrawn and across every facet of empire - governments, militaries, intelligence bodies, politics and religions, rather than merely the World Bank.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 2:00pm zman
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zman wrote:

zman wrote:

I just can't understand the fear of run away inflation from the gold "experts" here, ....

I don't understand it either.

Because there is no substantial sentiment to that effect in this thread.

The long term uptrend in gold, money, versus currency, is 2% per annum. This is the figure admitted publicly by Central Banks as their targeted increase in the money supply.

However, there are other figures, also from Central Banks, which are in the public domain, but not public knowledge. There are other targeted Central Bank money supply increases of 8% during stagflation with short unwarned pulses to 12%, to wind down excess public debt.

So the assumption in this Setup forum, is that during stagflationary times gold will rise afterwards to reveal a constant 8-12% per annum price increase during eg the previous decade. Let's say 9% for this accellerated growth in gold's price. But probably not visible until normality returns.

So the question is: how long a period for debt unwinding? The next question: which currency will be strongest and therefore be used to price the gold. Next question: which currency will be weakest and therefore maximize the gold hedge requirement? Finally: when will this set of non normal circumstances prevail?

Yuan-Yen-Ruble. It's a military verdict unachieved as of now.

USD. It's still undecided too, but my current working scenari0 after all is done.

2000 - 2036 in a series of trading range swings during which alternate waves Wall St makes it's money.

Next alt swing into the low 2020s, I have mentioned 2020-2023 in this connection and shown a few charts of cycles proposing that possibility.

The war period to resolve victors' status for the new paradigm, late 2020s, already being fought in proxy for, with actual imperial troops face to face on just about every commodity bearing national land on the planet.

In other words there is an old fashioned resource war going on between the major power blocs and alliances, that decides who gets the resources cheapest, and that decides whose FX falls the most, and that decision is in the future.

Until then regression to the mean of an assumed 9% medium term trend is my working assumption.

So "run away inflation" .... no! That would be misrepresenting the vast majority of posts in this forum I think. There could be a post or a few to that effect, but exceptionally rather than overall that way.

And .... 8%-9% is a central bank originated figure for targeted annual stagflation wealth seizure policy ( see Reinhart, Rogoff, IMF, BIS et al) .

It's actually the price of democracy. You see, when inflation runs lower than that,and those in charge keep wasting-stealing , money at their accustomed rate, growth falters and unrest on the streets results.

Thus lower inflation or deflation leads inevitably to authoritarianism and police states, and we see this sub trend clearly during the period since 2009 when inflation was controlled while prices of government gatekeeping services . They have to trade higher security cost against inflation to wind down debt which works against their bond portfolio values. In which case there is a new thesis: cheaper security acts to remove democracy

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 2:31pm
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Hyperinflation...

I agree that regular old inflation will be kept under control by the central banks.

What is in question, in my view, is hyperinflation--which is loss of value of the currency.

Why do Russia, China, India, and many other countries continue to buy gold (and silver)? Why do they seek and create ways to get around use of the USD in their transactions?

What if the BRICs decide that they will only sell goods on the basis of receipt in gold in return payment?

Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 10:58pm
silver66
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you may or may not find

this video to be interesting

The Secret of the Universe Finding the Clock Cycles, Series 1, Part 2/7.

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Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 10:53am
Pete
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response to AM viz. RNP webinar

I took another look at the Andrews fork from the $100 low in gold, but used the "orthodox end" of the bear market vs. the "nominal price extreme" (to use RN Elliott's words). The result is here.

Tim Morge has presented work with this approach. My own limited research with this suggests it may be useful especially when the subsequent price action finds support along the Lower MLH (as in this case), and perhaps also when an important pivot lies on or very near the early part of the ML as it moves through the price action. (This would be the June 1982 low in the gold chart.)

The termination of the parabolic wave on the Upper MLH after so much time elapsed is quite surprising--not unlike the recent wave 3 top of the ES chart (which has a perfect "Babson Fork"--an echo of the important pivot on the ML).

We might well find that a return to the long term ML is in the cards, but I would only use it as a target (for a hedge or short) if other "local" lines confirm (i.e. create a confluence). We shall see!

And yes, perhaps a drop to the Lower MLH of this grand fork is in the cards too--or perhaps to the Lower MLH of the fork using the "nominal price low".

Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 12:19pm
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Styxx gets it - GV will time it - cycles are due

Possibly readers are not paying attention to the StarWars Hollywood (who lecture us on how to live !!) +Establishment battle vs fans affair and how that is going for the monied classes after 42 years. I did draw this to the fore during last year and ongoing watching has been like watching a slow motion four billion dollar chauffer driven limmo driving slowly and carefully over the only cliff in a thousand miles.

Or the Doctor Who neo-(4th wave anti men) feminist makers + BBC + Establishment vs fans and how that is presently going for anti white anti male anti-feminist neo feminists. (anti feminist because they are rabidly anti-independent females and want to silence successful women too)

Check out a visual synopsis, for a quickie take.

But to not watch this regularly is to miss the lessons provided by this dynamic process of the social dimension to cycle analysis in the markets I bring here:

Anyway the snapshots:

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/star_wars_the_last_jedi

that's after some serious remedial actions. Check the audience reviews if required. Low scored are accompanied by opinion and justifications and expressions of disappointments. Tops scores are sort of very very brief, as if somebody was short of time in their workplace and just wanted to get it done, or possibly was not a fan in the first place.

Onwards we go:

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/doctor_who/s11/

Here is the end of season finale which used to be the prime viewing day at Xmas but was deferred to New Year (to avoid a disastrous embarrassment (I presume)

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/doctor_who/51697

This is the fans standing up to those who order them what to think and replying "FU we've had enough". Ordinary fans. Average people, not activists.

And in France on the streets (everywhere though the media would have us believe it is just in Paris) the people who run things so incompetently for everybody other than themselves are getting ready to crack some ... fadeout here for good reasons.

And in London ... well the UK government is having a tough time reconciling globalist EU forces with the half of the population that prefer Britain to be ruled from within Britain. Some deep thought as to ultra high alliances here is fruitful but I'm not going to go there in Setup!

So ... look at the press critic scores in the above links. As the public rate the movies goes lower, the press critics have gone to 100%.. Invert the audience scores to get a vote of criticism. eg 100 - 15% positive = 85% critical in the scoring.

So ... over less than a year, in two western countries we see this:

Press support ----Public Criticism

91--------------45 (=-55)

93--------------22 (=-78)

94 --------------15 (=-85)

Now I mention that the only reason the press support in Dr Who Resolution is not 100% is because one press critic rated it down after 7th January, and after it was abundantly clear audiences and fans hated it.

And I also mention that many public who rated the last so low are female fans (who are clearly say they are disappointed that the first Dr Who with a female in the lead role was so crassly politicized, and so shallow. it's not a male misogynist fan thing, though the press love to level that accusation.

So, as the public sentiment turned away from the official narrative, the media, in Spinal Tap style, "turned it up to 11".

To no avail.

And London. And Paris. And around the globe, sentiment swings away from the people in charge who have screwed up so monumentally, and so stunningly failed at their jobs.

Styxhexenhammer666 tends to get some and lose some when measured by my market calibrated filter. But he sees through the glossy facade usually and "gets" more than a whole lot of other social commentators. So his droll sarcasm tends to hit the mark pretty well.

Anyway this one is quite interesting:

Gilets Jaunes! French Protests Continue to Grow as Macron Does Dumb Stuff

The first ten and last 30 seconds are priceless.

And .... this is all occurring 8 years after the 2011 top in gold, and as gold rises towards next confrontation with the last three years trading range highs.

It's time for the establishment's financiers to double up their bet or walk away. But they can't. So, will the best rearguard action, no doubt began with shock and awe, stop gold or not?

The real players are coming onto the stage to sing. It could be a fat lady (to reuse the old showbiz term) or it could be the stormtroopers choir's first performance.

Time for waiting for the next phase to arrive is up. We get either return of democracy or cranked up authority - starting imminently. Gold has already moved into position for whichever choice manifests.

Which means that GV effect from here on .... well ... it could be turbo charged for a while. Approx dates will be posted in Setup.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 1:06pm Pete
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@Pete: I appreciate your taking a

I appreciate your taking a looksee and your comments.

I have bisected the channel and ratioed it for shorter term insight into longer term of the fork. The prime ratio, as discussed ta the webinar is quite proximate to price, this is handy given the "important time".

So as long as price gets/stays above the prime ratio support.resistance sub channel I can have a bullish stance, and below it .... ugh, but that insight is useful too because the major channel edges are as you have shown, and become the downside breakout scenario in that case.

Isn't it hilarious how the conventional fork meshes with my less conventional one from the webinar? (That's no coincidence) There is a sort of crosshairs effect created by the two interacting together that hopefully can help us.

I think your lower sub channel green up goes back to the 2006 high reasonably well.

Whichever way the world chooses to go, "it" will tell us what we need to know about what "they" have decided.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 6:03pm
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AM et al.

you may find this video interesting particularly about historical events

Two things that caught my attention this week, 1/13/19

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Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 7:57pm
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Social mood and corporate misreading of it

This preachy misandrous ad from Gillette already has 31000 dislikes to 4000 likes already.

I expect it will get "ratioed" ten down to one up.

It is difficult to believe they are so self sure in their anti men bigoted politics that they actually went ahead and published it.

We Believe: The Best Men Can Be | Gillette (Short Film)

Try to imagine how the opposite would be received if for example women were accused of being abusers with a need to behave better (which sounds just as wild) and the following outcry.

I see from the comments section that some people are coming back to repost complaint comments they made earlier that have been deleted. I will have to do this too myself I imagine, as I posted that I will avoid all their brands from now on incl Proctor & Gamble toothpaste, shampoos ,etc. They seem to be deleting (including polite but critical) comments aggressively.

The common people are beginning to refuse to accept this rubbish and speak out against it in greater numbers. And a gaffe like this is useful in marking stages of the normally obscured economic cycle.

This can turn markets, overthrow governments (London, France street protests), and more. Watch sentiment and how it's change eventually alters the global power structure, cascading down to the price of houses, interest rates, pay increases or their size, etc which all affects everybody directly.

Although it seems "wrong" until after you live through a few instances - seeing emotional change can help you to correctly time big life purchases. This trend has been a long time in growth and was first mentioned in Setup months ago. But it takes achievement of a critical mass to enable a matter to gain general attention.

Critical mass is arrived. Decisions must be made on a plethora of fronts.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 8:13pm
silver66
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Hey AM

what do you think of the "gas explosion" in Paris

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/13/paris-gas-blast-death-toll-h...

pretty wicked damage for a gas leak don't you think?

Silver66

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Mon, Jan 14, 2019 - 8:37pm
zman
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Trade war?

Wow, this is one hell of a trade war, not.

https://moneyandmarkets.com/us-trade-deficit-china-record-high-323b/

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/14/china-2018-full-year-december-trade-expo...

"grew 17 percent from a year ago"

Hmm, that's one hell of a trade war, thankfully Trump is protecting the US worker and bringing jobs back to the US.

Wed, Jan 16, 2019 - 6:39pm
Pete
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TRX weekly

Since my brother owns the shares, I thought I'd take a look. Looks like there could be an outstanding buy opportunity for a trade (or long term hold?) by mid-year as price works over toward R1. A mid-February dip to new lows (at MLH x R1) at about .22 could be a steal.

Thu, Jan 17, 2019 - 5:49am Pete
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Tx for the tip Pete, nasty

Tx for the tip Pete, nasty dip there in the chart. There is definately a different vibe among many miners (not all). Breaking out of super long extremely boring consolidation patterns. We are going to have so much fun here in 2019. Maybe not so much outside in the society.

Finally we got a new globalist friendly government in Sweden, after more than 4 months of negotiations. I truly bizarre constellation with communists-social demonrats-left globalist builderburger liberals trying to work together. What a nasty cocktail.

Here is a masterpiece by Styx:

Populism and Nativism Have Already Won This Generation: You'll See What I Mean

Embrace populism (in latin it means by the people) now or we will take the risk that a new Napoleon-Stalin-Hitler-Pol Pot is born in Europe.

Thu, Jan 17, 2019 - 6:15pm
silver66
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Interesting signaling

Hey AM sounds like he is getting positioned for events in motion??

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-17/billionaire-investor-sam-zell-...

Silver66

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