The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Dec 27, 2018 - 8:19am
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Gold as represented by the GLD fund

This is a monthly scale VAP quite proximate to the year end:

I have removed the price numbers so it's impossible to let attention drift to the wrong side of the chart.

Look very carefully at what prices above average business is being transacted in recent times, and at what happened in the past when these prices were encountered, and my recent posts.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Dec 27, 2018 - 3:07pm
Solsson
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It looks like a wedge with a

It looks like a wedge with a flat top ...

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4822/45766834154_375a89b24a_b.jpg

I am bullish a knock and a higher low, another knock and a higher low, we are expecting another knock soon followed by a higher low and after that ... I think the chart is brewing a cup of coffee.

Bob Dylan - Knockin on Heaven´s Door
Thu, Dec 27, 2018 - 10:01pm
silver66
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Hey AM

I think you will enjoy this video

Peace,joy and prosperity to all in 2019

The Cosmic Christmas We Missed - Bill Donahue (Mirror)

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Fri, Dec 28, 2018 - 2:19am
Pete
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Feb Gold

In a correction, the intersection of the far 2p and latest ml often marks the time, +/- a day, of its terminus, and sometimes the price. Feb Gold rebuffed a mid-day selling spree from that intersection and is now trading at new highs. This kind of action is suggestive of a 3rd wave higher.

My fantasy projection for price going forward is suggested by the Fibonacci expansion ratios. If you grant a running correction (the abc), the chart shows some Fibonacci confluence levels, and with the warning lines (parallels) they become potential target areas from which a greater correction is possible. The minimum target for this move per the long term weekly R1 line 1377.50.

Sat, Dec 29, 2018 - 10:29am silver66
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Thanks for the link S66.

Thanks for the link S66.

He does it well - explaining important matters which have been omitted, lost, forgotten, hidden by the religious bodies who administer the descendent beliefs of the original Nazarean Judaism which is also called early Christianity.

He brings information to the front, while not criticizing anybody, and leaves the viewer to decide the merits of the information, and the implications for the other purveyors of information who for some strange reason seem to not talk about these important aspects of that great book. There is no need to denigrate anybody, (also no benefit to be gained by doing so) merely a wish to better inform people who have never been treated to the full picture before now.

In that way he comes across to me as helpful and positive in the field of deciphering what the bible actually is. It is important that he draws a parallel between what is above and the human mind and it's development.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Dec 29, 2018 - 11:05am Solsson
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

It looks like a wedge with a flat top ...

I am bullish a knock and a higher low, another knock and a higher low, we are expecting another knock soon followed by a higher low and after that ... I think the chart is brewing a cup of coffee.



Do note that in your GLD chart, price enters the formation from the top and not from the bottom.

Personally I'm expecting a fake-out to trap early bulls in losing positions. 1040 and/or the inside diagonal off the 2008 high should be retested before we can have another bullrun imho.

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Sat, Dec 29, 2018 - 1:01pm silver66
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silver66 wrote:

silver66 wrote:

I think you will enjoy this video

Yes I enjoyed it very much and learned that the Sun is born in September, and so am I

JESUS IS THE MYTHICAL SUN
BORN INSIDE OF YOU FROM
THE SOLAR PLEXUS

The word Jesus is a Greek word whose numerical
value is 888 (oh please not that number again) which in Greek mythology
is the mythical Sun.
Truly Jesus is the Sun in the sky and in you,
and on Dec 25th that Sun will rise out of the solstice .
It will right ascend to sit at the Eastern Sky,
and right hemisphere of the brain,
and bring us all new life.

Sat, Dec 29, 2018 - 3:27pm
Pete
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The PPT does it again

Remember the evening when Donald Trump won the election and the ES futures were plummeting that night? What turned that around? Probably the PPT. It looks like they started to buy the futures contract when price touched the reaction line shown here.

Well maybe the same crew did it again in the evening session after the Christmas day market holiday. Look at this reaction line here. Very similar setup as in 2016, using the pz (high) as the action point. Note that the 2p line used this time as center line did act as support for a couple of minor pivot lows on the way down, making it "multi-pivot". This naturally strengthens the probability that the reaction line will be strong to end the decline.

So does this mean the market decline could be over for now, and we will see a return to the highs? Maybe.

There are other pivots to consider as Y, such as this one. Here, the further-away high is used as the action point, more in keeping with Babson's R1 method. Here, closes couldn't be maintained below R1, and thus this interpretation is valid for a turn higher, too.

Considering the brief length of time to correct such a large rally, which is itself a fifth wave of a larger impulse out ot the 2009 low, this could easily be just Wave A of an unfolding correction, if W.A is complete. We shall see.

The timing of Trump's admonition to buy the dip couldn't have been better. Wonder if he was advised by the PPT's market technicians?

Sat, Dec 29, 2018 - 3:37pm
Pete
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The "Babson Fork"

I've made up this name, Babson Fork, to describe a class of Andrews' pitchforks where the median line and the 0-4 line are the same, i.e., where price turned at the reaction line.

The parallels of these forks are especially powerful. Check this out for grins. And this.

I did not keep up the necessary lines on the ES chart, but felt in January that the rally was going parabolic and coming to an exhaustion point. That sure was a nice point to buy some puts!

Sat, Dec 29, 2018 - 5:02pm
zman
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Bond Bears

Well, new recent lows on bond yields.

2 year bond- 2.51% Was up to 2.97% in November.

10 year bond- 2.71% Was up to near 3.25% in November.

So where's the inflation concerns, what about too much debt? No, yields could go even lower as the global economy shows a major slow down.

How much more pain do the bond bears want before they wake up and get the deal?

Sun, Dec 30, 2018 - 6:59pm
Green Lantern
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AM, 

AM,

Wishing you a Happy New Year. I wanted to offer youa big thank you for all the information that you've put out here for everybody for the past few years.

It all took! Or better yet, it took me. Hours rummaging through angles, aspects, midpoints, numbers, fans, squares.... You turned on some lights.

I understand that one of Gann's motivations for writing TTTA because he knew that he had to pass it forward. That's an edict of natural law.

I've spent the better part of the year watching all sorts of traders. Fibonacci, wave traders, astro traders, Sol-lunar model, standard TA. And some of them do quite well with just those tools.

I've not found anybody, anywhere, that has put all these tools together in one cohesive system and pubcily demonstrates to others.

There are several years of extremely valuable writings, tools, thinking process that AM has left on this site that are invaluable. Many quotables and pearls of wisdom regarding markets that MOST people ignore. Especially when it comes to forecasting.

So if you're only watching, waiting to see what happens next, and haven't taken the time to harvest the pearls of wisdom that are already here, you're cheating yourself. It's all here.

I decided to take a little day trip to visit a part of New York City I hadn't visited before. I had a little nudging from somebody too.

Looks like even in his death he was giving lessons. He died at age 77.

He picked a good location. On top of a hill, facing the statue of liberty and his old offices in Wall Street, over the river, 45 degrees.

It's also the site of the largest battle of the Revolutionary War, Battle of Brookyn. Yeah, the English kicked our butts, but in the end, we won anyway:)

Anyway, Thanks.

View of Wall Street Area from Green-Wood Cemetary
View of Wall Street Area from Green-Wood Cemetery
Mon, Dec 31, 2018 - 6:43am Green Lantern
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Green Lantern wrote:

Green Lantern wrote:

AM,

Wishing you a Happy New Year.

I wish you all a Happy New Year I will get back to you GL, silver66 and Silver_Surfer.

Went to the post office to pick up a package on Saturday. I've had some weird experiences with queue ticket machines the past year and on Saturday was no different.

At first I was relieved, number 495 totally irrelevant. Then something woke me up at 3 a clock in the morning. A loud noise, the sound of moving furniture. When I was awake it was silent. I started to think about the queue ticket and then it hit me. If I reverse the number 495->594, that number is a very familiar one.

Funny thing is this mathematical operation is talking about reverse numbers, strange coincidence and the guy leaves the answer 495, my queue ticket number ...

The number will be 3 digit as its differs 3 digit(594)
Let original number be 100x+10y+z
Reverted number is 100z+10y+x
At the question
Original Number=Reverted number+594
which means,
original number-reverted number=594
ON PUTTING VALUES
100x+10y+z-(100z+10y+x)=594
100x+10y+z-100z-100y-x=594
99(x-z)=594
Therefore x-z=6
This means ones and hundred digits have difference of 6
Therefore we can substitute any values of x&z to satisfy the condition and y=any value
Like if x=9 therefore x=3
903–309=594 {9–3=6}
812–218=594
862–268=594
Means you have to make x and z as difference 6 and you can substitute any value of 6
Therefore this question has more than one solutions.
S.nithya Sri, mbbs Studying & Studying, Maharishi Vidya Mandir, Hosur (2020)
Answered May 22
495

Just for fun I took the number 594 and subtracted it with 495:

594-495=99 another familiar number, the number of Amen or the number of the Egyptian Sun God Amen-Ra.

Why Amen is said after prayers [ Nubian Origins of Amen (Ra) ]

2019 is going to be very interesting.

Mon, Dec 31, 2018 - 12:17pm
zman
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I'm confused

https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=68

"The biggest difference between now and 2008 is back then money flooded into the dollar in order to buy Treasuries, but this time round that does not appear to be happening"

Wait a second, we have seen a very strong bond rally the past 8 weeks and the US dollar is -2% down from recent all-time highs. What difference does it make who is buying the debt? It doesn't, Russia and China aren't needed to buy it.

"What we are seeing is an intensifying buyers strike with respect to Treasuries"

Again, that's not the case.

Why is being intellectually honest so difficult today? If stock markets continue to decline, investors will continue to go into US T-bonds. It doesn't matter if there's $40 trillion of debt, if the conditions point to deflation and economic weakness- investors will even settle for 0% or negative yields.

There's not going to be any dollar collapse, hyperinflation or even slight inflation. We are going to get more to what we have been seeing- investors going into the US dollar and US T-Bonds. At a certain point, investors are going to be asking themselves if buying gold at $1300 oz makes any sense when there's no inflation.

Mon, Dec 31, 2018 - 6:47pm
zman
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Yield curve

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-31/1y-2y-treasury-yield-curve-inv...

"the 1s2s curve has inverted to a whopping -10.8 bps" The last time was Oct. of 2008., yet we have nothing like that time period today.

BTW, 1 year T-Bond 2.63% 7 year T-Bond 2.59%. Things aren't really adding up anymore. Does any of this stuff even matter? I'm starting to wonder.

Tue, Jan 1, 2019 - 3:49pm
Pete
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Worth watching: belangp's video on QT

Found this very enlightening. I had no idea. Despite the "press" about QT and how the sky was going to fall as a result, it turns out the adjusted monetary base and M1 just keep on rising. (And the Fed is still monetizing the debt.) QT has been and continues in "excess reserves" only, which never went into circulation anyway (never spent, no contribution to monetary velocity). Basically book-keeping.

Quantitative Tightening Isn't What Everyone Thinks
Tue, Jan 1, 2019 - 3:59pm Pete
zman
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Pete wrote:

Pete wrote:

Found this very enlightening. I had no idea. Despite the "press" about QT and how the sky was going to fall as a result, it turns out the adjusted monetary base and M1 just keep on rising. (And the Fed is still monetizing the debt.) QT has been and continues in "excess reserves" only, which never went into circulation anyway (never spent, no contribution to monetary velocity). Basically book-keeping.

Quantitative Tightening Isn't What Everyone Thinks

Pete, I watched this video a few days ago and I think he's wrong on a few points. Checkout the comments section below his video on Utube, many others also take issue with it.

The Fed is NOT buying T-bonds will freshly printed money as he suggests, the Fed balance sheet is shrinking. He also suggests it's inflationary, but we all know the trend is deflation (commodities and bonds).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL It started at $4.5 trillion and now is down to $4 trillion.

Most of the money is in the hands of the very few, they don't spend the money because it's impossible to spend that much money as a individual or small family. Maintaining or increasing the existing wealth and income inequality is a key aspect to making sure inflation or economic growth never materializes, but Trump or the Fed can NOT say this to the public for obvious reasons.

The Fed is going to continue to sell bonds into the market to ultimately send developed economies into a big deflationary recession. The money supply is meaningless at this point, most of the money went into assets (real estate., bonds and stocks), not the real economy. Once the deflation takes over, money supply will likely shrink as well.

Tue, Jan 1, 2019 - 5:50pm
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Happy New Year

Happy New Year to everybody.

Your contributions, comments, support and readership are greatly appreciated.

@GL Thanks for your kind comments. Your post about W D Gann's final resting place was very interesting.

@The regular contributors to Setup who add so much to the content here and its scope is due a very special thanks to each of you for your efforts, and interest and generosity with your work.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 2, 2019 - 3:31am
Solsson
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Wow the new year here in

Wow the new year here in Sweden started of with a bang. Nearly 42m/s in some parts of Sweden that is a hurricane. Symbolic thinking this may be a stormy year?

If you think that I've run out of 8's you are badly mistaking. I will run out of 8's when zman says he is convinced that inflation is coming haha ...

an example, one of my favorite miners that Argentus recommended a while ago:

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4882/44749497370_654fec92ac_b.jpg

I am up to 88% allocation right now, brutal recovery in miners the last two days.

I am planning to play a lot of golf in 2019. I ordered this forged Canadian test iron before Christmas and I will pick it up today.

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4865/32693750808_160bbf09dd_b.jpg

188:881 another mirror and a final reference, a Swedish technical analyst. He has not posted a new video since 9th of Dec 2017, then all of a sudden he posted a video with an.

88analysis

I just laughed out loud. He is familiar with WD Gann uses his square of 9 method.

Wed, Jan 2, 2019 - 4:39pm
zman
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Bond Bears

Just another day of new recent lows on bond yields.

5 year- 2.48% 10 year- 2.65% 30 year- 2.97%

Good thing the bond bears doubled down on the recent move in lower yields. They can't just believe that soaring deficits and debt can still mean lower yields. They're going to get an economic lesson of a lifetime before it's all said and done.

When will they realize they made a big mistake? When the gold/30 year T-bond ratio takes out the 2016 low is my bet.

Thu, Jan 3, 2019 - 4:39pm
zman
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Just starting to cover?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-03/2-3-and-5-year-treasury-yields...

I would hope so that this point. Wow, check out the drop in yields.

2 year- 2.37% 5 year- 2.35% 10 year- 2.55% 30 year- 2.90%

How low do we go? Look at Europe and Japan. Perpetual low growth (recession) and deflation coming to the US now. There was never really any other choice.