The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Dec 30, 2018 - 6:59pm
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AM, 

AM, 

Wishing you a Happy New Year.  I wanted to offer youa big thank you for all the information that you've put out here for everybody for the past few years.  

It all took! Or better yet, it took me.  Hours rummaging through angles, aspects, midpoints, numbers, fans, squares.... You turned on some lights.  

I understand that one of Gann's motivations for writing TTTA because he knew that he had to pass it forward.  That's an edict of natural law. 

I've spent the better part of the year watching all sorts of traders.  Fibonacci, wave traders, astro traders, Sol-lunar model, standard TA.   And some of them do quite well with just those tools.   

I've not found anybody, anywhere, that has put all these tools together in one cohesive system and pubcily demonstrates to others.      

There are several years of extremely valuable writings, tools, thinking process that AM has left on this site that are invaluable.  Many quotables and pearls of wisdom regarding markets that MOST people ignore.  Especially when it comes to forecasting.  

So if you're only watching,  waiting to see what happens next, and haven't taken the time to harvest the pearls of wisdom that are already here, you're cheating yourself.   It's all here.  

I decided to take a little day trip to visit a part of New York City I hadn't visited before.    I had a little nudging from somebody too.   

Looks like even in his death he was giving lessons. He died at age 77.  

He picked a good location.  On top of a hill, facing the statue of liberty and his old offices in Wall Street, over the river, 45 degrees.  

It's also the site of the largest battle of the Revolutionary War,  Battle of Brookyn. Yeah, the English kicked our butts, but in the end, we won anyway:)

Anyway, Thanks. 
 

View of Wall Street Area from Green-Wood Cemetary
View of Wall Street Area from Green-Wood Cemetery
Mon, Dec 31, 2018 - 6:43am (Reply to #11652)
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Green Lantern wrote:

Green Lantern wrote:

AM, 

Wishing you a Happy New Year. 

 

I wish you all a Happy New Year smiley I will get back to you GL, silver66 and Silver_Surfer.

Went to the post office to pick up a package on Saturday. I've had some weird experiences with queue ticket machines the past year and on Saturday was no different.

At first I was relieved, number 495 totally irrelevant. Then something woke me up at 3 a clock in the morning. A loud noise, the sound of moving furniture. When I was awake it was silent. I started to think about the queue ticket and then it hit me. If I reverse the number 495->594, that number is a very familiar one.

Funny thing is this mathematical operation is talking about reverse numbers, strange coincidence and the guy leaves the answer 495, my queue ticket number ...

The number will be 3 digit as its differs 3 digit(594)
Let original number be 100x+10y+z
Reverted number is 100z+10y+x
At the question
Original Number=Reverted number+594
which means,
original number-reverted number=594
ON PUTTING VALUES
100x+10y+z-(100z+10y+x)=594
100x+10y+z-100z-100y-x=594
99(x-z)=594
Therefore x-z=6
This means ones and hundred digits have difference of 6
Therefore we can substitute any values of x&z to satisfy the condition and y=any value
Like if x=9 therefore x=3
903–309=594 {9–3=6}
812–218=594
862–268=594
Means you have to make x and z as difference 6 and you can substitute any value of 6
Therefore this question has more than one solutions.
S.nithya Sri, mbbs Studying & Studying, Maharishi Vidya Mandir, Hosur (2020)
Answered May 22
495

Just for fun I took the number 594 and subtracted it with 495:

594-495=99 another familiar number, the number of Amen or the number of the Egyptian Sun God Amen-Ra.

Why Amen is said after prayers [ Nubian Origins of Amen (Ra) ]

2019 is going to be very interesting.

Mon, Dec 31, 2018 - 12:17pm
zman
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I'm confused

https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=68

"The biggest difference  between now and 2008 is back then money flooded into the dollar in order to buy Treasuries, but this time round that does not appear to be happening"

Wait a second,  we have seen a very strong bond rally the past 8 weeks and the US dollar is -2% down from recent all-time highs. What difference does it make who is buying the debt?    It doesn't, Russia and China aren't needed to buy it. 

"What we are seeing is an intensifying buyers strike with respect to Treasuries"

Again, that's not the case. 

Why is being intellectually honest so difficult today?     If stock markets continue to decline, investors will continue to go into US T-bonds.  It doesn't matter if there's $40 trillion of debt, if the conditions point to deflation and economic weakness- investors will even settle for 0% or negative yields.  

There's not going to be any dollar collapse, hyperinflation or even slight inflation. We are going to get more to what we have been seeing- investors going into the US dollar and US T-Bonds.   At a certain point, investors are going to be asking themselves if buying gold at $1300 oz makes any sense when there's no inflation. 

Mon, Dec 31, 2018 - 6:47pm
zman
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Yield curve

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-31/1y-2y-treasury-yield-curve-inv...

"the 1s2s curve has inverted to a whopping -10.8 bps"          The last time was Oct. of 2008., yet we have nothing like that time period today.

BTW, 1 year T-Bond 2.63%    7 year T-Bond 2.59%.  Things aren't really adding up anymore.   Does any of this stuff even matter?  I'm starting to wonder. 

Tue, Jan 1, 2019 - 3:49pm
Pete
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Worth watching: belangp's video on QT

Found this very enlightening.  I had no idea.  Despite the "press" about QT and how the sky was going to fall as a result, it turns out the adjusted monetary base and M1 just keep on rising.  (And the Fed is still monetizing the debt.)  QT has been and continues in "excess reserves" only, which  never went into circulation anyway (never spent, no contribution to monetary velocity).  Basically book-keeping.  

Quantitative Tightening Isn't What Everyone Thinks
Tue, Jan 1, 2019 - 3:59pm (Reply to #11656)
zman
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Pete wrote:

Pete wrote:

Found this very enlightening.  I had no idea. Despite the "press" about QT and how the sky was going to fall as a result, it turns out the adjusted monetary base and M1 just keep on rising.  (And the Fed is still monetizing the debt.)  QT has been and continues in "excess reserves" only, which  never went into circulation anyway (never spent, no contribution to monetary velocity).  Basically book-keeping.  

Quantitative Tightening Isn't What Everyone Thinks

Pete,  I watched this video a few days ago and I think he's wrong on a few points.  Checkout the comments section below his video on Utube, many others also take issue with it.

The Fed is NOT buying T-bonds will freshly printed money as he suggests, the Fed balance sheet is shrinking.   He also suggests it's inflationary, but we all know the trend is deflation (commodities and bonds).  

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL    It started at $4.5 trillion and now is down to $4 trillion.  

Most of the money is in the hands of the very few, they don't spend the money because it's impossible to spend that much money as a individual or small family.  Maintaining or increasing the existing wealth and income inequality is a key aspect to making sure inflation or economic growth never materializes, but Trump or the Fed can NOT say this to the public for obvious reasons.  

The Fed is going to continue to sell bonds into the market to ultimately send developed economies into a big deflationary recession.   The money supply is meaningless at this point,  most of the money went into assets (real estate., bonds and stocks), not the real economy.  Once the deflation takes over, money supply will likely shrink as well.  

Tue, Jan 1, 2019 - 5:50pm
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Happy New Year

Happy New Year to everybody.

Your contributions, comments, support and readership are greatly appreciated.

@GL Thanks for your kind comments. Your post about W D Gann's final resting place was very interesting.

@The regular contributors to Setup who add so much to the content here and its scope is due a very special thanks to each of you for your efforts, and interest and generosity with your work.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 2, 2019 - 3:31am
Solsson
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Wow the new year here in

Wow the new year here in Sweden started of with a bang.  Nearly 42m/s in some parts of Sweden that is a hurricane. Symbolic thinking this may be a stormy year?

If you think that I've run out of 8's you are badly mistaking. I will run out of 8's when zman says he is convinced that inflation is coming haha ...

an example, one of my favorite miners that Argentus recommended a while ago:

I am up to 88% allocation right now, brutal recovery in miners the last two days.

I am planning to play a lot of golf in 2019. I ordered this forged Canadian test iron before Christmas and I will pick it up today.

188:881 another mirror and a final reference, a Swedish technical analyst. He has not posted a new video since 9th of Dec 2017, then all of a sudden he posted a video with an.

88analysis

I just laughed out loud. He is familiar with WD Gann uses his square of 9 method.

Wed, Jan 2, 2019 - 4:39pm
zman
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Bond Bears

Just another day of new recent lows on bond yields.

5 year-  2.48%   10 year- 2.65%   30 year- 2.97%

Good thing the bond bears doubled down on the recent move in lower yields. crying  They can't just believe that soaring deficits and debt can still mean lower yields.  They're going to get an economic lesson of a lifetime before it's all said and done.  

When will they realize they made a big mistake?   When the gold/30 year T-bond ratio takes out the 2016 low is my bet.    

Thu, Jan 3, 2019 - 4:39pm
zman
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Just starting to cover?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-03/2-3-and-5-year-treasury-yields...

I would hope so that this point.  Wow, check out the drop in yields.

2 year- 2.37%   5 year- 2.35%  10 year- 2.55%  30 year- 2.90%

How low do we go?     Look at Europe and Japan.    Perpetual low growth (recession) and deflation coming to the US now.   There was never really any other choice. 

Fri, Jan 4, 2019 - 12:41pm
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A brief update

The first 2019 RNP webinar's in a couple of hours from now are in you should have got an email with details.

We have guests at home and time allocation is more constrained than usual. Apologies for the intermittent posts over XMas - to - New Year "gap". But ... is New Year now or three months from now? That depends upon which calendar you use. Which one is best? All of them! Refer to "calendar posts", and think about some of the major religions, and societies before religions, and the great timepieces they built.

Normal Setup posts will resume then, and I have a draft essay for the AM Blog in the works - I should finish that one tomorrow and I'll post a link here in Setup.

Markets may be lively for a while. Funnymental valuation factors are shifting.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Jan 7, 2019 - 12:00pm
zman
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Thanks for the warning!

https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-fat-years-of-high-tax-revenue-are-over-fi...

Well, as asset prices decline and the economies slowdown, we're going to see a massive decline in tax revenues.   So are we going to see big deficits to makeup the difference?    Not in the EU, we're going to see massive cuts for social programs.

But the US would never cut off the peasants and will just run $2-3 trillion deficits to makeup the difference, right?  Nope, not this time around.   The bondholders will make the rules,  their goal is fiscal austerity- not "printing money" or "inflating the debt away".  

I wonder how happy EU citizens will be when they get cut off and have to share the crumbs with millions of migrants that don't even belong in their nation.   Everyone is charitable until it hits their own lifestyle.  

Mon, Jan 7, 2019 - 1:39pm
silver66
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interesting resignation

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Mon, Jan 7, 2019 - 9:24pm
Pete
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DX today

Following up to a prior post: DX today closed below the turn at R1 level, negating immediate dollar bullishness to new highs, and opening the way for a possible decline to the ML (typical target in a 2nd H bounce pattern at the MLH) and maybe even further.

Should prove helpful to gold bulls.

Retest of the Sep 2018 low in DX?

Tue, Jan 8, 2019 - 5:55pm
zman
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Weaker dollar??

For the sake of argument lets say the US dollar is starting a new downtrend, would it be gold bullish?     Not really in my opinion, just because the Fed is claiming to stop hiking rates- that doesn't mean there's a need to buy a inflationary hedge at almost $1300 oz.

A weaker US dollar would most likely bring the US stock market to new all-time highs and help the global stock markets as well.  That would also flow money back into stocks and out of gold.

IF there was inflation that the Fed couldn't defend with higher interest rates, THEN gold could move into a bull market, but that's NOT the case today.   

I just can't understand the fear of run away inflation from the gold "experts" here, the elite are NEVER going to let money flow into the real economy. In fact, the plan is the complete opposite.   People have to realize that the elite control BOTH fiscal and monetary policy today, they're not going to screw themselves. 

Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 1:21pm
silver66
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good short video

Hope everyone finds this of interest

Two things that caught my attention this week, 1/6/19

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 1:37pm (Reply to #11664)
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It seems that behind the

It seems that behind the facade staff lines are being redrawn and across every facet of empire - governments, militaries, intelligence bodies, politics and religions, rather than merely the World Bank.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 2:00pm (Reply to #11666)
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zman wrote:

zman wrote:

I just can't understand the fear of run away inflation from the gold "experts" here, .... 

I don't understand it either.

Because there is no substantial sentiment to that effect in this thread.

The long term uptrend in gold, money, versus currency, is 2% per annum. This is the figure admitted publicly by Central Banks as their targeted increase in the money supply.

However, there are other figures, also from Central Banks, which are in the public domain, but not public knowledge. There are other targeted Central Bank money supply increases of 8% during stagflation with short unwarned pulses to 12%, to wind down excess public debt.

So the assumption in this Setup forum, is that during stagflationary times gold will rise afterwards to reveal a constant 8-12% per annum price increase during eg the previous decade. Let's say 9% for this accellerated growth in gold's price. But probably not visible until normality returns.

So the question is: how long a period for debt unwinding? The next question: which currency will be strongest and therefore be used to price the gold. Next question: which currency will be weakest and therefore maximize the gold hedge requirement? Finally: when will this set of non normal circumstances prevail?

Yuan-Yen-Ruble. It's a military verdict unachieved as of now.

USD. It's still undecided too, but my current working scenari0 after all is done.

2000 - 2036 in a series of trading range swings during which alternate waves Wall St makes it's money.

Next alt swing into the low 2020s, I have mentioned 2020-2023 in this connection and shown a few charts of cycles proposing that possibility.

The war period to resolve victors' status for the new paradigm, late 2020s, already being fought in proxy for, with actual imperial troops face to face on just about every commodity bearing national land on the planet.

In other words there is  an old fashioned resource war going on between the major power blocs and alliances, that decides who gets the resources cheapest, and that decides whose FX falls the most, and that decision is in the future.

Until then regression to the mean of an assumed 9% medium term trend is my working assumption.

So "run away inflation" .... no! That would be misrepresenting the vast majority of posts in this forum I think. There could be a post or a few to that effect, but exceptionally rather than overall that way. 

And .... 8%-9% is a central bank originated figure for targeted annual stagflation wealth seizure policy ( see Reinhart, Rogoff, IMF, BIS et al) .

It's actually the price of democracy. You see, when inflation runs lower than that,and those in charge keep wasting-stealing , money at their accustomed rate, growth falters and unrest on the streets results.

Thus lower inflation or deflation leads inevitably to authoritarianism and police states, and we see this sub trend clearly during the period since 2009 when inflation was controlled while prices of government gatekeeping services . They have to trade higher security cost against inflation to wind down debt which works against their bond portfolio values. In which case there is a new thesis: cheaper security acts to remove democracy

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 2:31pm
ancientmoney
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Hyperinflation...

I agree that regular old inflation will be kept under control by the central banks.

What is in question, in my view, is hyperinflation--which is loss of value of the currency.

Why do Russia, China, India, and many other countries continue to buy gold (and silver)?  Why do they seek and create ways to get around use of the USD in their transactions?

What if the BRICs decide that they will only sell goods on the basis of receipt in gold in return payment?

Wed, Jan 9, 2019 - 10:58pm
silver66
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you may or may not find

this video to be interesting

The Secret of the Universe Finding the Clock Cycles, Series 1, Part 2/7.

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

randomness