The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 8:56pm
Pete
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Dec gold

I think that if this multi-month trendline is broken to the upside gold will not make new lows into December; the potential for the 2nd H bounce pattern with follow-through to the downside will be taken off the table. Had price continued lower to close under the green H, downside pressure would have proved much stronger. Maybe it will still happen. With the late December inflection time frame passed, odds strongly favor that gold will rise back toward 2018 highs.

Fri, Nov 30, 2018 - 11:28am
zman
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deflate

Oil traded under $50.

US Dollar trading over 97 on dollar index.

US 10 year T-Bond- barely above 3.00%.

Silver- barely above $14 oz.

CRB commodity index only 20% above the low from 3 years ago.

It's all here, this is not the sign of stimulus and a booming economy, this is the sign of weak demand and money drying up around the globe.

Sat, Dec 1, 2018 - 3:03pm
Solsson
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It must be snowing in hell,

It must be snowing in hell, Ronnie Fattal is bullish Gold

Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver & Gold as of 1st December 2018

Welcome back Argentus, yes a holiday is a good idea. Another 2½ week and I am off work for three weeks, very nice indeed. It seems that the Gold low is in and we are looking forward for a multi week/month uptrend.

Gold is super solid and Paris is burning ...

Sun, Dec 2, 2018 - 3:13pm
Pete
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GLD weekly (review)

On the GLD weekly chart, Roger Babson's 0-Y R1 line concept strongly supports the probability that gold has bottomed, and the next big swing high will be at or above the Jan 2018 high. It is interesting to see the much increased volume in GLD the week that price actually touched the R1 line. (The August low was made, in the lead Dec contract, at the Dec contract R1 line).

Mon, Dec 3, 2018 - 3:15pm
zman
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Bond Yields

2 year- 2.83% 5 year- 2.84% 10 year- 2.99%

How's this looking bond bears? Flattening curve. This isn't good for the bears, it's inevitable that yields MUST go LOWER. How do we get to o% or negative yields? Deflate the money out of the system and destroy demand.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/france-anti-tax-protests-leave-gas-st...

Why put a massive energy tax on an economy with o.4% GDP growth? To save the world from pollution? No, it's actually to help destroy demand and throw France into even deeper deflation.

Yes, this is what is coming to all developed economies- cutting social benefits for the peasants and also hiking their taxes. The elite have no choice, bond yields must stay at all-time lows.

This is what is coming to other EU nations and also the US. My guess is the peasants in the US will just take it and blame some "group" for the problem.

Tue, Dec 4, 2018 - 6:57pm
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December is here at last.

It's seemed to take forever.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 5, 2018 - 6:48am argentus maximus
kentucky
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Looks like anarchy

I leave it up to you to decide what it means.

kentucky
Wed, Dec 5, 2018 - 10:53am
Pete
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Blu Putnam of CME group mentions....Gold!

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/videos/will-us-dolla...

so now you have your fundamental reason for a gold rally

Thu, Dec 6, 2018 - 10:50am Pete
zman
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Pete wrote:

Pete wrote:

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/videos/will-us-dolla...

so now you have your fundamental reason for a gold rally

But the question still remains, why would the euro, yen, pound and other currencies outperform the US dollar? Isn't some of the other central banks still at 0%? YES. Isn't some of the other central banks still using QE? YES. So if the Fed stops hiking rates the dollar trades lower? I doubt it.

The point is, there's no solid reason for the dollar trading lower. Also, even if the dollar traded lower, that does NOT mean gold would rally at all. Gold needs to see inflation and can not be defended with higher rates, that inflation is not here. That's why the people in power are going with deflation, low rates and low commodity prices.

If policy makers ever decided to stimulate the real economy, then gold is the perfect investment. If the velocity of money started moving higher, if demand were to increase, if inflation were higher than interest rates. But none of those things can or ever will happen because there's too much debt in the system. They're not going to blow up tens of trillions worth of bonds to help Joe Six-Pack out, not gonna happen.

Fri, Dec 7, 2018 - 3:36pm
Solsson
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I am relying on my creepy

I am relying on my creepy crazy unconventional method, seeing a number combination for more than 10times in a couple of days.

It's basically the same number repeating. from before 17=8 17:17=88, the last couple of days a crazy amount of 188,188,188,188... my new functional description 188pages. Number of IO-signals 188 and so forth.

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4845/46170207132_46dc543989_b.jpg

Okey number 188 meaning, I guess it's related to financials ...

Angel-Confirmation Number 188

This number (188) is a powerful number symbolizing great power. And Financial affluence. You are empowered in what you are doing to make a living, keep up the great work and know that your light working has a purpose and you are not limited.

Namaste,
Quornesha S.

*** *** **

cool, Gold broke 1250 today 1+2+5+0=8.

The bounce of Phi squared of 1161,8 makes a 1250-1161,8=88dollars

Have a nice weekend

Edit:
188=1+8+8=17=1+7=8

Edit2:
Angel number 188 is a number of great material influence and success.
When this vibration storms into your life, you will attract a high level of abundance and wealth in a surprisingly brief amount of time.
Angel number 188 also comes as a warning from the angels and spirit guides of the potential for developing an over-attachment to materialistic outcomes.
***

I don't care, show me the money

Sat, Dec 8, 2018 - 6:34am Solsson
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Picked up a letter from

Picked up a letter from Postnord today. I've got a mysterious package that I've not ordered. It is sent from an foreign country. I've ignored it bcos my last name is misspelled, but Postnord is persistent. They extended the timeline to collect it for another month.

Look at the letter and the import Tax I have to pay:

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4891/31289377717_b541660b25_b.jpg

Creepy, I wonder what is hidden inside it ...

Sat, Dec 8, 2018 - 9:26am
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Photo taken last week

Just before dawn, one day last week:

A pretty sight! The planet Venus orbits the sun in 5/8th of the time the Earth does, so a Venusian year is between sixty one and sixty two per cent of an Earth year in length. About two hundred and twenty five days which would be about 160 business days. But due to it's shorter orbit than ours, Venus passes the Earth out when looked from above our Solar System (eg from a viewpoint above our North Pole and also above the Sun). So Earth and Venus become closest to each other every approximately one point six years.

These are all periods at which cycles of nature might be found.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Dec 8, 2018 - 2:40pm
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Just some chart ....

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Dec 8, 2018 - 7:04pm
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VAP is dropping hints

If I had to do without everything, all the fancy schmancy tricks.

If I could merely see the price and one other things. What would I choose?

I suspect it would be an effective support and resistance measuring tool.

Possibly VAP.

Now any tool is pretty much useless until the user reads the manual and has practised with it to achieve proficiency.

I introduced this technique here several years ago, and have always demonstrated by realtime use so the results could be rechecked afterwards. So by now those who will do that have done so, and those who won't, well probably haven't.

That is a very revealing chart above. Basis the GLD price it shows the price at which the whole table will alter its tilt, and all the odds alter substantially. Currently GLD is below that level, which is a sell for possible drops to lower prices. BUT! BUT! BUT! GLD was down there before, and couldn't be kept down, and it climbed upwards to where it is. So in the light of that it might not be a wise sell this late in the game.

Say you bet money successfully on the champ beating the newcomer. The champ has always beat newcomers until now. And you won the bet when wannabee champ got knocked down. But unlike all the previous wannabees, this newcomer after taking a huge hit shakes his head, squints and starts to look more determined than before. He DIDN'T STAY DOWN. He looks meaner not damaged. He gets up without looking beaten. And comes back kind of soon after being knocked down.

Well. What does that do to the odds for repeating the same bet and winning again? Whatever way it will go, those win:lose odds are different this time. The players are the same, but the odds not so.

Champ has to be favourite until he's not the champ. Due respect to power. But he's a lot older now, carrying some signs of wear and tear. His tactics are better known. This gold haired wannabee is a big fella. Needs to be put down regularly just to keep him in his place. Unruly independent type. Strong. His track record of making winning comebacks goes back a long way. Extra respect due to this one.

Also it's time to keep an extra eye on those fight organizers. They have control of the ring, the glove checks, judging, regulatory and referees, the time, maybe they could pull some sudden last minute rules changes. Plenty of room for cheating there by the champs' insider buddies.

That's all right there in that chart above, plus some more. But you knew that already. But there's a related fight in the next ring. Let's check it out.

Here's the TBond. You can see a little exploratory wave work also, with a timeline after which some inversionary moves are proceeding for the upper two scenarios. So far that is. That's of debatable value. And there's VAP also. Are we looking into the future where one fight is a few minutes ahead of the other? Lots to wonder about that possibility. Care advised certainly. There is a sense of we could be looking at big betting punters lines in the sand to either double up or to alternatively cut and run.

Have a good weekend everybody.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Dec 8, 2018 - 8:52pm Solsson
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88 ... 89

You're an interesting chap, Solsson.

I didn't see it the first time, but when I scanned your post later Hah Hah!

88 months after 6 September 2011

89 months after 6 September 2011 (a Fibonacci sequence number)

.... from 6 Sept 2011 the gold bull high that year ...... would be either the first week of Jan or Feb next.

And I'll put this one out also. Seven point two years from that high was passed about three weeks ago. That marked a second higher low for gold following the August bottom.

PS : Video to elaborate something big in P&F for subscribers before this weekend's over.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Dec 9, 2018 - 2:07pm
Pete
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Trader Joe

Just checked in with Trader Joe's blog and glad I did. Very interesting monthly view of crude oil, and of course ES.

http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/

Sun, Dec 9, 2018 - 5:20pm
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I second what Pete said. Plus

I second what Pete said. Plus this: Joe has a very clear focus on one of the possible scenarios in play right now. Look at the direction of the last completed 5 wave swing. Consider the matter of stops carefully.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Dec 9, 2018 - 7:26pm
Pete
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Over at King World News

Michael Oliver Just Predicted Gold Will Take Out 5 Years Of Highs In 50 Trading Days!
December 07, 2018

https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-just-predicted-gold-will-take-o...

Mon, Dec 10, 2018 - 10:42am
CaptK
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Gold Hurst Cycles

SentientTrader Market Update - 9 November 2018 (Gold)

Market Update - 9 November 2018 (Gold)
Mon, Dec 10, 2018 - 11:35am
UncleFester
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Speaking of Oil

USGS just revised its numbers for the Permian shale patch. Gave recoverable oil a 2x (46 Bb) and recoverable natural gas a whopping 10x (280 Tcf). Numbers will change should price fall below $30pb. US is now net exporter of energy for first time since the 1970's I think.

Energy data junkies might like this link, can't speak to its accuracy...

http://www.tsp-data-portal.org/Breakdown-of-Energy-Production-Statistics...

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
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