The setup for the big trade

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Thu, Nov 15, 2018 - 12:21pm Pete
zman
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Pete wrote:

Pete wrote:

I thought this chart was really interesting. Maybe the LT trend is not yet broken! Yield hit 3.24 on 11/8, has since backed off to 3.12 today (a good pullback).

https://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/almost-there-35-year-trend-revers...

Watching the 2 year bond yield, now down to 2.84%. IF this yield heads down to the 2.60 area, the next bull market move in bond is game on. We can't live with higher rates, not gonna happen.

Fri, Nov 16, 2018 - 12:37pm
zman
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Bond Yields

2 year T-Bond yield down to 2.80%. !0 year T-Bond yield down to 3.07%. What's the deal here? I thought the Fed was going to hike 3-4 times next year and the economy has upward wage pressures. I thought there was too much debt being issued. I thought we had a booming GDP growth economy.

What's going on Bond Bears? I see 2.60 on the 2 year and a break of 3% on the 10 year as being a wake up call. Yes, deflation is coming in a big way.

Sat, Nov 17, 2018 - 5:47pm
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There is a new number in town

There is a new number in town ...

an absolute explosion of 17's today. My broken fridge has been blinking 17 for months now but it didn't fit the numbers I was seeing at the time so I skipped the "sign".

But today, even my dad was surprised, "wow that's a lot of seventeens on the screen Stefan" and he laughed out loud. I sat down in his car at 17:17 today the 17th and it was 17 degrees in his car.

ANGus-ELohim (angel refers to the bull God of the bible) NUMBER 1717

Number 1717 is a blend of the attributes and energies of both number 1 and number 7 appearing twice, amplifying their influences. Number 1 relates to creation and new beginnings, striving towards achieving goals, trying new things, self-reliance and determination, intuition and initiative, raw energy, force and activity. It tells us that we create our own realities with our actions, thoughts and beliefs and encourages us to step out of our comfort zones. Number 7 resonates with seeking knowledge, education and study and learning. inner-knowing and understanding others, compassion and empathy, spiritual awakening, development and enlightenment, mysticism and psychic gifts and abilities.

Angel Number 1717 indicates that you have an important soul mission and life purpose that involves communicating, teaching, healing others and serving humanity in a manner that suits your personality and natural abilities and interests. You are to set a positive example for others and inspire them to seek their own passion and purpose. Do not allow any insecurities to hinder or hold you back from fulfilling your destiny as you have all that you need within you.

Angel Number 1717 also suggests that you may experience good fortune which will lead to the manifestation of your heart’s desires. It is your belief that dictates the nature of your reality - belief and thoughts joined together. Your life changes as you change your inner-beliefs and you have chosen your thoughts and actions to suit your personal truths and values. You are to be commended for your efforts so keep going in this vain.

Angel Number 1717 also encourages you to look to new and different ways of expanding and practicing your personal spirituality. Inspire others to fulfill their highest potential as you fulfill your own.

*****************

I don't know just yet. I am far from skilled enough to teach. I am not even close, I've not started yet, the digging I mean, I see the Phi2 in the algo 33xPhi2=86.4 as digging into esoteric literature and discussing the topic with other people, starting to communicate.

I am warning folks about the stock&bondmarket though.

Sat, Nov 17, 2018 - 5:54pm
Solsson
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Here is another crazy

Here is another crazy synchronicity. I am surrounded by Anna's. After a crazy week with a shit load of work. The contact person at the customer were named Anna. My boss name is Anna. My project leaders name is Anna and my two colleagues are also named Anna. I am an Anna magnet lol. And then I found at that there is a butterfly called Anna and look at the number ...

Sat, Nov 17, 2018 - 6:18pm
Solsson
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and that reminds me of the

and that reminds me of the dance of Earth and Venus. One Anna for every conjunction, there are five of them

Pentogram of Venus--conjunction with Earth's Orbit

I guess this was not the answer zman was looking for hahaha ... I am crawling back under my wierdo stone, that's a promise.

Oh, there is a book called Synchronicity by Carl-Gustav Jung. Vol8 and the price is 88.88SEK that's strange ...

https://www.bookdepository.com/Synchronicity-C-G-Jung/9780691150505?ref=...

Sun, Nov 18, 2018 - 7:12pm Solsson
my mothers keeper
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I am compelled to reply!

Hi Solsson, Anna is a palindrome! And I do enjoy your posts. Thank you for popping up.

https://penlighten.com/palindrome-examples

Mon, Nov 19, 2018 - 1:46pm
zman
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2 year bond yield

Now down to 2.78%. What's going on here, now down .20 points in the last few weeks. I thought shorting bonds here was a slam dunk here.

I say IF it gets down to 2.60%, the bond bull is back in full force. Also, the 10 year at 3.06 today. I guess it will be under 3% in short order.

Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - 4:59pm my mothers keeper
Solsson
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#my mothers keeper

#my mothers keeper

Tx for your kind post I think the rest of the posters/readers think "do not encourage him" lol

Ok, 21st of November in a few hours. Are fast approaching a rumble in the bondmarket?

Martin Armstrong thinks so with his Pi-analysis tool.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/november-21st-20...

Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - 6:04pm Solsson
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Armstrong agrees with ZMAN

Bond market rallies, gold tanks, stocks rally, dollar rallies?

kentucky
Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - 7:54pm kentucky
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kentucky wrote:

kentucky wrote:

Bond market rallies, gold tanks, stocks rally, dollar rallies?

I'm not sold on stocks rallying, but I'm not a bear yet either. I think deflation will tear everything apart at some point, with the exception of US T-Bonds and US dollars.

What I find so funny is the bond bears at this point, did they really think interest rates would trade higher into a deflationary global economy? There's a reason why they are draining the money out of the system, they want permanent 0% to negative interest rates.

The world is going to find out this is the plan sooner rather than later. Bitcoin, commodities, silver and gold are ALL in the same boat, there's less and less money available to enter these markets. Once everyone starts to figure it out, those prices will start the next wave lower.

Will the Fed give the final jolt to the deflationary monster next month with another rate hike? Sure, why not. It's about deflating the debt away, it's fun for the elite, but will be living hell for the rest of the 99.9%.

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 2:28am
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Dec Gold, and crude oil

Gold closed lower Tuesday on higher daily volume after touching or exceeding 3 resistance lines: the upper trend line (purple); the latest minor ml (red); and the Major SH (green). This bearish price action might become a "2nd H-bounce" pivot pattern with potential to move to new lows, should price close under the H shown (green). (Note: the 2nd H-bounce pattern is typically seen as a bottom pattern (a P2 of sorts) at/near the initial MLH, but here it would be at a major pivot 4). If the move continued lower, it could be called a breakdown from a converging triangle pattern (with two 3p lines converging). Such a breakdown could lead to a rapidly unfolding final wave.

A possible reaction line target using a 3p center line (the lower triangle boundary), and the minor 1-3 declining 2p line, describe a possible price and time target that would satisfy cyclical and Fibonacci guidelines for a major low.

On the other hand, if today's reversal is itself reversed, the break of the minor trendline resistance could lead to a strong upside continuation, in harmony with gold's ascending bottoms along the monthly R1 line as presented in prior posts.

Crude oil's close under the last pivot low, made on the long term R1 line, negates the bullish implication of it's having turned there--unless there is a surprising immediate reversal higher (very unlikely; happens rarely). Before a turn higher can be assumed we will probably need to see an upside pivot zoom followed by a successful retest of the seeming bottom.

Happy Thanksgiving to all, wherever you live!

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 2:35am zman
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Hard Brexit

Pete wrote:

On the other hand, if today's reversal is itself reversed, the break of the minor trendline resistance could lead to a strong upside continuation, in harmony with gold's ascending bottoms along the monthly R1 line as presented in prior posts.

Happy Thanksgiving to all, wherever you live!

I am betting hard that this final year would be different, but I don't know. Looking at the miners there has been a termination cycle for the last month. Maybe the miners are still leading the metal?

As a Swede we do not celebrate Thanksgiving, but it's just a matter of time before we adopt that too. Halloween has found it's place in Sweden now.

A SHTF moment arriving soon?

  • Hard Brexit
  • Italexit soon?
  • Douche Bank in a downward spiral

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 12:24pm
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Gold and silver set to dive?

Radomski's TA says so...but then after bottoming for a few months, off to new highs:

"It seems very likely that gold, silver and mining stocks will soon do what bitcoin did recently – they will dive (by the way, we’ve been shorting bitcoin). The difference is that the precious metals sector is likely to form a major bottom within the next several months and then rally above its previous highs, whereas bitcoin’s future may not be so bright. Bitcoin seems to have had its own dot-com bubble, while gold’s trend remains strong in the long run."

https://news.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-forecast-reading-between-candle...

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 4:27pm
zman
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And so it begins!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/theres-a-9-trillion-corporate-debt-bomb-...

Is the MSM preparing the herd now? They're suggesting higher (or the existing) interest rates will cause a problem for corporations, so in other words- we need to have lower interest rates!!!! How do we get lower rates? Deflate the economy and kill demand, but they don't to state that fact.

It's coming guys, they have no other choice. BTW, it looks like trouble is brewing in the Euro high yield bond market and also EU banks. The ECB will have to go back to massive bond buying and no interest rate hikes. This could provide the next lift off for the US Dollar.

Remember, more QE does not cause inflation. The Fed will be next as well, buying all the corporate bonds and stocks that is needed.

Fri, Nov 23, 2018 - 11:48am Solsson
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

an absolute explosion of 17's today...

mmmm, I don't know why I entered the trade yesterday? When I saw 17 I knew it was good 17.71 a mirror.

http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4909/46015701251_a56044a16c_b.jpg

maybe it was related to some sort of an animal?

Nice beaver ...

"Nice Beaver" - The Naked Gun
Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 12:56pm
zman
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The Trump Manufacturing Booming Economy!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/26/gm-lay-off-percent-sa...

Well, isn't this interesting. I was told manufacturing work and jobs in the US was going to be soaring in the months and years ahead, what the deal here?

http://www.autonews.com/article/20141211/OEM01/141219966/gm-to-double-me...

Maybe this investment from a few years ago has something to do with it.

I wonder what Trump is going to say? Most likely what he says about the trade deficit numbers every month- NOTHING!!!!

This Make American Great Again has been a scam since day one, when are the brain dead US citizens going to wake up? Never is my bet.

Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 12:41pm
zman
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Next wave of deflation

Not looking good here. Gold is starting to breakdown relative to the T-bond now, that's the classic deflationary measurement. If this happens we will see the takeout of the 2016 low on the ratio. Where does this put the price of gold? Potentially at all time lows.

The US Dollar is soaring again towards recent all time highs, it's just a matter of time before the dollar takes out the 2017 high and then moves even higher.

All the signs are starting to materialize, the final move should be interest rates trading lower. With that being said, the 10 year bond barely over 3% is not very impressive either.

Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 9:28pm
Solsson
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We've been here before a deja

We've been here before a deja vu ...

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/685067#comment-685067

12x12=144 a double bottom or just the start of a horrific decline?

Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 11:19am
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power plays by the big boys

or just a bad accident

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-28/explosion-rips-through-chemica...

I recall AM posted about explosions at US and Chinese factories a while ago and looked at date and players. I wonder if this is another such incident or if it was just a bad accident

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 12:59pm
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Back from a holiday. There

Back from a holiday. There are some good posts popping up around here lately while the markets are idle-ish.

Just a couple of observations I think might be timely.

if i say I am a bond bear, I mean what I say. HOWEVER BEAR IN MIND my bondish bearishness would "activate" while AT THE TOP OF THE TRADING RANGE. When the (interest rate range lows are returned to a suitable level of bearishness for bonds in a decades long downtrend coming out of a decade wide top will resume.

in short don't take a long term strategic view and confuse that with following momentum. bond buying and selling periods of importance are very clearly delineated. They are (normally) greater than three years and often 4.5 or even 9 years (for "normal" bigger ones) apart. I am already on record as having brought to readers attention, property, war, sovereign, currency and interest rate events currently in action, which remind in ways of similar character events of eg 70, 140, 300 -ish years prior to now. So ..... if that be the case what size trading range should be expected? I propose a range in which "normal" market participants call range swings "bull or bear markets in bonds". naturally once that misclassification has been made, correct analysis of the situation is removed from the options being considered for those players.

Re Armstrong. I don't read his site. The social commentary is not objective enough for me and echoes the sentiment rather that looking into it the way I prefer to do. I do go there when somebody posts a specific link however, so see what is being referred to.

Re the forecasting model of which a nice chart was posted above. I am of the view that it works, but it is a composite of something, or somethings else Armstrong does not mention. I have mentioned these things here many times, and we (I and I hope many of you) now look at those other signals or inputs directly rather than through the Forecasting Model Filter.

There is on record here in Setup a recent time of importance whereby this source was saying "Hmmmm can't see anything much here, wait until "x" later" but the EFFM in question was blaring on all trumpets in a great and impressive fanfare of forecasting volume. But nothing happened until "x" time came along after wards. this might possibly be because this thread is a bit more market oriented in the inputs considered, even if we do get to discuss things seemingly far away from conventional market talk. Maybe those things are less far from the market mechanics than is apparent at first.

When and if you are thinking about markets, and you look at the irrational number Pi, remember that Pi is a rotational measure. That would assume perfect cycles of price or time exist in markets. Have you ever seen me make that claim? Maybe I point out that for one example, the elections of great and powerful people and institutional controllers are equidistant in time, I could have said that. But .... when a new fed Head comes into power and the old one leaves (for a single example) does anybody expect price to return to the level at which ir was at the appointment of the first bigwig, ready for a re-run? So, if Pi represents a perfectly repetitive cycles situation, then for less "perfect" cycles there just might be another irrrational number you want to pay attention to before putting those cycle tools down. I suggest elliptical maths could be a fruitful area to look into if you haven't already done so.

Large timepieces with a friction free perfect mechanism, can measure longer cycles.

A few pics ... they might help kick the 97% unused grey matter in a profitable direction. (actually I don't believe in that 97% unused brain cell thing even a little but, but, hey - it's a saying!

So when we say Pi here we mean something that rhymes with Pi.

We should expect busy times soon. Normal service is quickly resuming in the great halls of money and power.

https://navaltoday.com/2018/11/13/hnoms-helge-ingstad-now-almost-complet...

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
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