The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 2:28am
Pete
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Dec Gold, and crude oil

Gold closed lower Tuesday on higher daily volume after touching or exceeding 3 resistance lines: the upper trend line (purple); the latest minor ml (red); and the Major SH (green).  This bearish price action might become a "2nd H-bounce" pivot pattern with potential to move to new lows, should price close under the H shown (green).  (Note: the 2nd H-bounce pattern is typically seen as a bottom pattern (a P2 of sorts) at/near the initial MLH, but here it would be at a major pivot 4).  If the move continued lower, it could be called a breakdown from a converging triangle pattern (with two 3p lines converging).  Such a breakdown could lead to a rapidly unfolding final wave.

A possible reaction line target using a 3p center line (the lower triangle boundary), and the minor 1-3 declining 2p line, describe a possible price and time target that would satisfy cyclical and Fibonacci guidelines for a major low.

On the other hand, if today's reversal is itself reversed, the break of the minor trendline resistance could lead to a strong upside continuation, in harmony with gold's ascending bottoms along the monthly R1 line as presented in prior posts.

Crude oil's close under the last pivot low, made on the long term R1 line, negates the bullish implication of it's having turned there--unless there is a surprising immediate reversal higher (very unlikely; happens rarely).  Before a turn higher can be assumed we will probably need to see an upside pivot zoom followed by a successful retest of the seeming bottom.

Happy Thanksgiving to all, wherever you live!

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 2:35am (Reply to #11557)
Solsson
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Hard Brexit

Pete wrote:

On the other hand, if today's reversal is itself reversed, the break of the minor trendline resistance could lead to a strong upside continuation, in harmony with gold's ascending bottoms along the monthly R1 line as presented in prior posts.

Happy Thanksgiving to all, wherever you live!

I am betting hard that this final year would be different, but I don't know. Looking at the miners there has been a termination cycle for the last month. Maybe the miners are still leading the metal?

As a Swede we do not celebrate Thanksgiving, but it's just a matter of time before we adopt that too. Halloween has found it's place in Sweden now.

A SHTF moment arriving soon?

  • Hard Brexit
  • Italexit soon?
  • Douche Bank in a downward spiral

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 12:24pm
ancientmoney
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Gold and silver set to dive?

Radomski's TA says so...but then after bottoming for a few months, off to new highs:

"It seems very likely that gold, silver and mining stocks will soon do what bitcoin did recently – they will dive (by the way, we’ve been shorting bitcoin). The difference is that the precious metals sector is likely to form a major bottom within the next several months and then rally above its previous highs, whereas bitcoin’s future may not be so bright. Bitcoin seems to have had its own dot-com bubble, while gold’s trend remains strong in the long run."

https://news.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-forecast-reading-between-candlesticks/1049

Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - 4:27pm
zman
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And so it begins!!!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/21/theres-a-9-trillion-corporate-debt-bomb-...

Is the MSM preparing the herd now?   They're suggesting higher (or the existing) interest rates will cause a problem for corporations, so in other words- we need to have lower interest rates!!!!    How do we get lower rates?     Deflate the economy and kill demand, but they don't to state that fact. 

It's coming guys,  they have no other choice.  BTW, it looks like trouble is brewing in the Euro high yield bond market and also EU banks.   The ECB will have to go back to massive bond buying and no interest rate hikes.   This could provide the next lift off for the US Dollar.  

Remember,  more QE does not cause inflation.   The Fed will be next as well, buying all the corporate bonds and stocks that is needed. 

Fri, Nov 23, 2018 - 11:48am (Reply to #11564)
Solsson
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Solsson wrote:

Solsson wrote:

an absolute explosion of 17's today...

mmmm, I don't know why I entered the trade yesterday? When I saw 17 I knew it was good smiley 17.71 a mirror.

maybe it was related to some sort of an animal?

Nice beaver  ...

"Nice Beaver" - The Naked Gun
Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 12:56pm
zman
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The Trump Manufacturing Booming Economy!!!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/26/gm-lay-off-percent-sa...

Well, isn't this interesting. I was told manufacturing work and jobs in the US was going to be soaring in the months and years ahead, what the deal here?

https://www.autonews.com/article/20141211/OEM01/141219966/gm-to-double-m...

Maybe this investment from a few years ago has something to do with it.  

I wonder what Trump is going to say?   Most likely what he says about the trade deficit numbers every month- NOTHING!!!!

This Make American Great Again has been a scam since day one, when are the brain dead US citizens going to wake up?  Never is my bet.  

Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 12:41pm
zman
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Next wave of deflation

Not looking good here.  Gold is starting to breakdown relative to the T-bond now, that's the classic deflationary measurement.  If this happens we will see the takeout of the 2016 low on the ratio. Where does this put the price of gold?   Potentially at all time lows.  

The US Dollar is soaring again towards recent all time highs, it's just a matter of time before the dollar takes out the 2017 high and then moves even higher. 

All the signs are starting to materialize, the final move should be interest rates trading lower. With that being said, the 10 year bond barely over 3% is not very impressive either. 

Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 9:28pm
Solsson
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We've been here before a deja

We've been here before a deja vu ...

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/685067#comment-685067

12x12=144 a double bottom or just the start of a horrific decline?

Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 11:19am
silver66
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power plays by the big boys

or just a bad accident

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-28/explosion-rips-through-chemica...

I recall AM posted about explosions at US and Chinese factories a while ago and looked at date and players. I wonder if this is another such incident or if it was just a bad accident

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 12:59pm
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Back from a holiday. There

Back from a holiday. There are some good posts popping up around here lately while the markets are idle-ish.

Just a couple of observations I think might be timely.

if i say I am a bond bear, I mean what I say. HOWEVER BEAR IN MIND my bondish bearishness would "activate" while AT THE TOP OF THE TRADING RANGE. When the (interest rate range lows are returned to a suitable level of bearishness for bonds in a decades long downtrend coming out of a decade wide top will resume.

in short don't take a long term strategic view and confuse that with following momentum. bond buying and selling periods of importance are very clearly delineated. They are (normally) greater than three years and often 4.5 or even 9 years (for "normal" bigger ones)  apart. I am already on record as having brought to readers attention, property, war, sovereign, currency and interest rate events currently in action, which remind in ways of similar character events of eg 70, 140, 300 -ish years prior to now. So ..... if that be the case what size trading range should be expected? I propose a range in which "normal" market participants call range swings "bull or bear markets in bonds". naturally once that misclassification has been made, correct analysis of the situation is removed from the options being considered for those players.

Re Armstrong. I don't read his site. The social commentary is not objective enough for me and echoes the sentiment rather that looking into it the way I prefer to do. I do go there when somebody posts a specific link however, so see what is being referred to.

Re the forecasting model of which a nice chart was posted above. I am of the view that it works, but it is a composite of something, or somethings else Armstrong does not mention. I have mentioned these things here many times, and we (I and I hope many of you) now look at those other signals or inputs directly rather than through the Forecasting Model Filter.

There is on record here in Setup a recent time of importance whereby this source was saying "Hmmmm can't see anything much here, wait until "x" later" but the EFFM in question was blaring on all trumpets in a great and impressive fanfare of forecasting volume. But nothing happened until "x" time came along after wards. this might possibly be because this thread is a bit more market oriented in the inputs considered, even if we do get to discuss things seemingly far away from conventional market talk. Maybe those things are less far from the market mechanics than is apparent at first.

When and if you are thinking about markets, and you look at the irrational number Pi, remember that Pi is a rotational measure. That would assume perfect cycles of price or time exist in markets. Have you ever seen me make that claim? Maybe I point out that for one example, the elections of great and powerful people and institutional controllers are equidistant in time, I could have said that. But .... when a new fed Head comes into power and the old one leaves (for a single example) does anybody expect price to return to the level at which ir was at the appointment of the first bigwig, ready for a re-run? So, if Pi represents a perfectly repetitive cycles situation, then for less "perfect" cycles there just might be another irrrational number you want to pay attention to before putting those cycle tools down. I suggest elliptical maths could be a fruitful area to look into if you haven't  already done so.

Large timepieces with a friction free perfect mechanism, can measure longer cycles.

A few pics ... they might help kick the 97% unused grey  matter in a profitable direction. (actually I don't believe in that 97% unused brain cell thing even a little but, but, hey - it's a saying!

So when we say Pi here we mean something that rhymes with Pi.  smiley

We should expect busy times soon. Normal service is quickly resuming in the great halls of money and power.

https://navaltoday.com/2018/11/13/hnoms-helge-ingstad-now-almost-completely-sunk-norwegian-navy-photos-show/

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Nov 28, 2018 - 8:56pm
Pete
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Dec gold

I think that if this multi-month trendline is broken to the upside gold will not make new lows into December; the potential for the 2nd H bounce pattern with follow-through to the downside will be taken off the table.  Had price continued lower to close under the green H, downside pressure would have proved much stronger.  Maybe it will still happen.  With the  late December inflection time frame passed, odds strongly favor that gold will rise back toward 2018 highs.

Fri, Nov 30, 2018 - 11:28am
zman
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deflate

Oil traded under $50.

US Dollar trading over 97 on dollar index.

US 10 year T-Bond- barely above 3.00%.

Silver- barely above $14 oz.

CRB commodity index only 20% above the  low from 3 years ago. 

It's all here,  this is not the sign of stimulus and a booming economy, this is the sign of weak demand and money drying up around the globe. 

Sat, Dec 1, 2018 - 3:03pm
Solsson
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It must be snowing in hell,

It must be snowing in hell, Ronnie Fattal is bullish Gold

Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver & Gold as of 1st December 2018

Welcome back Argentus, yes a holiday is a good idea. Another 2½ week and I am off work for three weeks, very nice indeed. It seems that the Gold low is in and we are looking forward for a multi week/month uptrend.

Gold is super solid and Paris is burning ...

Sun, Dec 2, 2018 - 3:13pm
Pete
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GLD weekly (review)

On the GLD weekly chart, Roger Babson's 0-Y R1 line concept strongly supports the probability that gold has bottomed, and the next big swing high will be at or above the Jan 2018 high.  It is interesting to see the much increased volume in GLD the week that price actually touched the R1 line.  (The August low was made, in the lead Dec contract, at the Dec contract R1 line).

Mon, Dec 3, 2018 - 3:15pm
zman
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Bond Yields

2 year-  2.83%      5 year- 2.84%    10 year- 2.99%

How's this looking bond bears?      Flattening curve.  This isn't good for the bears, it's inevitable that yields MUST go LOWER.   How do we get to o% or negative yields?   Deflate the money out of the system and destroy demand.  

 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/france-anti-tax-protests-leave-gas-st...

Why put a massive energy tax on an economy with o.4% GDP growth?   To save the world from pollution?   No, it's actually to help destroy demand and throw France into even deeper deflation.

Yes, this is what is coming to all developed economies-  cutting social benefits for the peasants and also hiking their taxes.   The elite have no choice, bond yields must stay at all-time lows. 

This is what is coming to other EU nations and also the US. My guess is the peasants in the US will just take it and blame some "group" for the problem.  

Tue, Dec 4, 2018 - 6:57pm
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December is here at last.

It's seemed to take forever.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Dec 5, 2018 - 6:48am (Reply to #11587)
kentucky
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Looks like anarchy

I leave it up to you to decide what it means.

kentucky
Wed, Dec 5, 2018 - 10:53am
Pete
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Blu Putnam of CME group mentions....Gold!

Thu, Dec 6, 2018 - 10:50am (Reply to #11589)
zman
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Pete wrote:

Pete wrote:

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/videos/will-us-dollar-keep-its-momentum-in-2019.html

so now you have your fundamental reason for a gold rally

But the question still remains, why would the euro, yen, pound and other currencies outperform the US dollar?   Isn't some of the other central banks still at 0%?  YES.  Isn't some of the other central banks still using QE?  YES.  So if the Fed stops hiking rates the dollar trades lower?   I doubt it.

The point is, there's no solid reason for the dollar trading lower. Also, even if the dollar traded lower, that does NOT mean gold would rally at all. Gold needs to see inflation and can not be defended with higher rates, that inflation is not here.  That's why the people in power are going with deflation, low rates and low commodity prices. 

If policy makers ever decided to stimulate the real economy, then gold is the perfect investment.  If the velocity of money started moving higher, if demand were to increase, if inflation were higher than interest rates.  But none of those things can or ever will happen because there's too much debt in the system.  They're not going to blow up tens of trillions worth of bonds to help Joe Six-Pack out, not gonna happen. 

Fri, Dec 7, 2018 - 3:36pm
Solsson
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I am relying on my creepy

I am relying on my creepy crazy unconventional method, seeing a number combination for more than 10times in a couple of days.

It's basically the same number repeating. from before 17=8 17:17=88, the last couple of days a crazy amount of 188,188,188,188... my new functional description 188pages. Number of IO-signals 188 and so forth.

Okey number 188 meaning, I guess it's related to financials ...

Angel-Confirmation Number 188

This number (188) is a powerful number symbolizing great power. And Financial affluence. You are empowered in what you are doing to make a living, keep up the great work and know that your light working has a purpose and you are not limited.

Namaste,
Quornesha S.

*** *** **

cool, Gold broke 1250 today 1+2+5+0=8. 

The bounce of Phi squared of 1161,8 makes a 1250-1161,8=88dollars

Have a nice weekend smiley

Edit:
188=1+8+8=17=1+7=8

Edit2:
Angel number 188 is a number of great material influence and success.
When this vibration storms into your life, you will attract a high level of abundance and wealth in a surprisingly brief amount of time.
Angel number 188 also comes as a warning from the angels and spirit guides of the potential for developing an over-attachment to materialistic outcomes.
***

I don't care, show me the money cheeky

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