The setup for the big trade

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Tue, Sep 18, 2018 - 2:19am argentus maximus
foscotanner
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Quirky trends....

The Christmas v..... I like it.....

I remember seeing the analysis around 2011 that said since 2000, if you bought gold at come open and sold at the close every day you lost money.... But buying at the close and selling at the open and you made over 800%.....

A recent trend I have noticed is that you could do this by buying 6am UK time and selling by around mid morning. No idea why but the UK early hours seems to see a bit of a bid....

Like all of these trends, they work until they don't..... Very useful to be aware of them....

Fair to say we are all itching to find the bottom of ythe v this coming few months :-)

Tue, Sep 18, 2018 - 4:35pm
zman
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Interest rates/ tariffs

Looks like a pretty decent move UP in US bond yields today- 2 year -2.80%, 10 year- 3.05% and 30 year- 3.19%.

If I had to guess we have another 2 months of yields moving higher, they have to let the "shooting fish in a barrel" crowd to get their bond shorts up to their eye balls. Do these people really think we can live with higher yields?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/new-us-chinese-tariffs-could-prolong-tra...

Well look at this, the boys of Wall Street celebrating economic tariffs, now why would they celebrate something that's hurts US companies bottom lines? Because these "tariffs" are completely meaningless in nature, "10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods". This is pure theater and nothing more. This does NOTHING for US workers, no company is bringing production back to the US with this tariff. How much would this reduce the US trade deficit with China? 5% at most, this is a very sad joke.

I will say one thing, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dems do really well in the Nov. elections. What has Trump done for the US working class? NOTHING. If Trump and the R's take a nasty defeat in Nov., I expect to see some market issues as they begin to question the "Trump booming economy".

Wed, Sep 19, 2018 - 7:25am
Wed, Sep 19, 2018 - 10:49pm
Solsson
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Woke up 3:22 this morning,

Woke up 3:22 this morning, that's a first ever I guess. Walked into the kitchen to take a mouthful of milk and get back to sleep when I looked at the microwave own clock 3:22 ...

I knew Bo Polny was up to something ..

Maybe for once he is right ..

Market TOP September 19 - 24 😨 CRASH & GLOBAL AWAKENING NEXT!

#Pining, welcome back hope your foot-toe healed well

Thu, Sep 20, 2018 - 4:05pm
zman
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Dow Hits All-Time High

So after a big 9 month consolidation for the Dow, it just broke out to an all time high. After this type of consolidation breakout, we should see a solid 25-35% move higher in the next 9-12 months. Can you say Dow 35,000? It's coming guys.

I would also expect to see new all-time highs for the emerging stock markets as well, that's where the big gains can be made.

People have to understand, valuations do NOT matter, either do interest rates, yield curves, earnings growth, PE's or even economic conditions. Stocks HAVE to go higher because we can't function without higher stock prices. Stocks have a put option, IF it were to trade lower the Fed has already indicated they will be a BUYER of stocks!!!! It doesn't get any better guys, the Fed has the back of the stock market.

The best part of it, this isn't inflationary at all because most of the stock is owned by the very few. So it's going to be more of the same, higher stocks, low interest rates and low commodity prices (gold/silver). They have no option, all of these markets must stay in that range.

People are wasting their time looking in the past history of financial markets, this is the bubble that can NOT burst and therefore will NOT burst. The best way to look at this is that these are NOT markets, this is central planning by the government with the appearance of free trading markets.

I repeat, the Dow/Gold ratio continues to go higher and will go much higher than most think is possible. There's not point of getting upset and blaming anyone about this whole deal, it's just the way it is. The people in power are in complete control that's just the way it goes.

Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 3:06am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Ray Dalio often knows what he

Ray Dalio often knows what he is talking about, worth listening to imo.

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Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 11:22am
zman
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m

With all due respect, Dalio has been full of poop and wrong for many years now. How many "the sky is falling experts" have we heard from in the past 3-4 years? Countless.

Even the big banks have been putting out all of the warnings the last 12-18 months, what has happened? NOTHING.

What these guys won't tell you is that we do NOT have the luxury of a lower stock market, yes it's a luxury to have markets trade freely, we no longer have it today. We can NOT exist with the Dow at 16000, or the 10 year bond at 6%, or gold at 1600 oz.

The fiscal policies are structured to make sure none of these markets trade in that fashion. It's only going to get worse as the debt grows larger.

Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 11:54am
Solsson
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Let the FRED be your Friend,

Let the FRED be your Friend, just look at the trend. This is a 14 trillion megaton oil tanker and it will not change direction anytime soon. This is M2 money stock:

The tapering that is ongoing now is barely visible. Another interesting fact is how the money stock supply changed gear during the 2008 crisis, it just took off. What would happen if we will experiencing something similar in the near future?

Ask Russia and China why they are buying gold, is it because it's a beautiful metal or is it to preserve their wealth in the future? Maybe both when you think about it lol ...

I think Rob Kirby/Chris Martenson both are on to something here

ROB KIRBY - Foreigners will Abandon the Dollar End Of Fiat Currency
Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - 10:38am
zman
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Trying so hard

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-24/bonds-dollar-dump-draghi-warns...

Wow, sounds so scary there. "As Bund yields (10 year) spiked" to .51%.

It's called talking a big game and making dam sure there's never any form of real economic growth or inflation. Most of the EU bonds trade with negative yields, they're NOT going to inflate their debt away, they decided years ago to deflate it away. They just can't tell the public that's been the real plan.

The same is goal coming to the US in 2019, shorting the US 10 year bond at 3-3.30% is going to look very foolish at same point in the future.

Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - 10:22pm
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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As above so below, look up

As above so below, look up and you will find the answers to what is happening below.

Wow the full moon is a true energizer at least in a low volume, low interest market. Most of my miners is either up 7-11% or down ...

A Harvest Full Moon, I hope the harvest thing really means plant your seed

Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - 7:33am
kentucky
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Post Bubble Contraction

kentucky
Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - 9:42am kentucky
eclectic
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PBC

Note nothing about gold.

e

Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - 11:13am kentucky
zman
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kentucky

kentucky wrote:

https://rambus1.com/2018/09/23/weekend-report-the-post-bubble-contraction-thesis-receives-validation-part-iii/

"The take away is that the entire commodity complex has now embarked on the next cyclical bear market within the context of its long term secular bear....The measured move projects a 50% decline in the price of commodities"

My main issue with the analysis is comparing today to 1937, trying to use market history in today's world is a complete waste of time. The Fed has already clearly stated the will be a buyers of stocks and corporate bonds if needed, that policy wasn't used in the 1930's. Also, they didn't have the amount of debt in the system in the 1930's, we are in a totally different environment.

"Aggressive money printing typically begins 2-3 years into the contraction"

Not this time, the Fed already said they're likely to act very EARLY and aggressive with the asset purchases. None of that money ever enters the real economy, so it's not an issue.

"Prolonged monetization ultimately leads to the public questioning a currencies store of value"

IF they experience INFLATION, that has NOT happened at all in the past 10 years. The average person doesn't know about the $15 trillion of printed money to buy assets and they don't care.

"Ultimately deploying Helicopter money runs the risk of over stimulation and may lead to hyperinflation"

If the money goes into the real economy, that has NOT happened and will NOT happen in the future. I got news for these guys, there's no helicopter money going into Main Street if we have an economic crisis. It's all going to Wall Street and the assets they own.

Could we see the CRB index down from here and the stock markets still at elevated levels? I'm going to say YES. This isn't 1937, this is the new era of "markets" and monetary policy.

Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - 1:32pm
zman
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Getting it half right

https://www.pentoport.com/pentonomics.php

"The Fed will also publicly promise to do whatever it takes to fight deflation"

Yes, we get it. The Fed will buy trillions of stocks and bonds to fight ASSET DEFLATION and nothing more. Remember the past 10 years of global QE????

"Finally, our government will not delay or tinker around the edges when it comes to passing the next fiscal stimulus"

Wait a second here, the NEXT "fiscal stimulus"? Where was the first one? This is where people get very confused, QE was NOT fiscal stimulus, it was monetary stimulus. Big DIFFERENCE.

"It seems both parties have agreed that a massive tax cutting and infrastructure package would be enacted very quickly once the next recession arrives"

Really, both parties have agreed to spend trillions on "infrastructure"? No, Trump talked about it for a few months after being elected and now it's dead. They're not going to create inflation or growth with the amount of debt in the system, not gonna happen.

As far as "tax cuts"? Yes, the elite already got their big tax cut, which has already proven NOT to provide any economic stimulus. News alert- Joe Six-Pack isn't getting any tax cut in the next downturn, in fact he's going to see higher real taxes and a massive cut for social program!!!

Could TPTB give themselves an individual tax cut so they could hoard more money? Yes, but that's not "economic stimulus".

People just don't get it, this isn't some sort of joke. There is no rescue or help coming, the peasants are all going to be on their own in this next downturn.

Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - 4:03pm
zman
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Peter

https://marketsanity.com/schiff-a-divided-government-will-not-be-bullish...

This is where it gets funny, Peter's biggest fear is the D's taking over the Senate and then passing some huge fiscal stimulus plan IF the economy enters into a downturn. The result is a weak dollar and bond yields soaring higher.

Yeah Peter, the bought and paid for D's are going to screw over their sponsors and pass some massive inflationary stimulus plan for the peasants as the elite see massive declines in their assets. He even goes as far to suggest the D's are "socialists" and that's why they would do it.

Did Peter forget about the 8 years under the "socialist" Obama?? Remember the US President the created the largest wealth and income inequality in over 80 years? The "socialist" that did NOTHING for the working class and got the rich even richer!!

Did he forget that stocks went higher and bond yields went lower under Obama, sorry Peter but that's not a "socialist" policy, that's a pro-elite policy.

I didn't know "socialists" let their Federal Reserve buy almost $5 trillion of assets from the elite and watch the peasants see zero wage growth, no velocity of money, more credit card, auto, student and mortgage debt. That's some weird "socialism" there guys!!!

Tue, Sep 25, 2018 - 5:50pm
zman
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Bulls on gold

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-set-soar-above-1300-–-goldman-and-bank-america

Wow, the big banks calling for a soaring move to $1300 oz in the next 12 months!!!! That's almost a whole 10% move higher, what a joke. Even if true, so what?

The Nasdaq went from 1500 to 8000 in 10 years without any downside corrections, no risk at all. Who the hell wants to buy a risky asset like gold for a 10% move higher, does that even cover the premium that goes with buying physical metal? Barely.

The bull market for gold/silver ended in 2011 with a speculate rally based on QE being inflationary, it was a suckers rally and that was the end of it. The last time gold peaked in 1980, it took 28 YEARS to get back to $850 oz. There's not enough time to recoup losses in these markets, humans don't live long enough.

Who wants to potentially wait for 2039 to see $1920 oz again? Many won't even be alive.

Wed, Sep 26, 2018 - 12:41am kentucky
blue pill dreaming
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Post Bubble Contraction

Plunger quotes Dalio saying this about Gold:

Initially there is a large currency devaluation of about 50% against gold.

Wed, Sep 26, 2018 - 10:22am blue pill dreaming
zman
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blue pill dreaming

blue pill dreaming wrote:

Plunger quotes Dalio saying this about Gold:

Initially there is a large currency devaluation of about 50% against gold.

The US is no longer on a gold standard today. How could a devaluation take place in the next few years? We have too much debt in the system and a 50% devaluation would crush bond holders and ultimately make the system less stable.

No, the elite are not going with devaluations or higher interest rates, TPTB are going with deflation and negative interest rates.

What people have to understand, this isn't about helping the economy get better. This is about the elite maintaining power and control. The debt and US dollar must maintain it's value, that's the bottom line. The result is the economy must have no real growth or inflation. The peasants are now official debt slaves and that's not going to change, the current fiat debt system is here to stay.

Wed, Sep 26, 2018 - 12:10pm
zman
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Gold/Bond ratio

It appears the 6 week rally in the gold/bond ratio is already extremely overbought and is likely coming to an end. Yes, the means bond yields could start trading lower and gold also going lower.

This ratio is ONLY 9% away from breaking the 2015 low, IF that low is broken it's game over for the bond shorts and the inflation camp.

Come on guys, we are supposed to be in a rate hiking inflationary cycle and this ratio is almost breaking down to new lows. My predication is this ratio heads lower.

Wed, Sep 26, 2018 - 4:40pm
zman
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Fed meeting

Well, after the Fed claiming it will hike many more times in the years ahead, long term bonds yields went significantly LOWER. I see a rally for bonds starting today.

I'm also going to suggest that the 6 week rally in PM's is also over, gold is headed lower to test the 1160 oz range once again. I do not think it will hold and we will see new lows in the gold and silver market. Look at GDX today, down -2.3% today on decent volume. That's a very bad sign for this market.

Also, the gold/bond ratio took a big move lower today, the rebound is over in this ratio. I see new lows in short order.