The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Sep 16, 2018 - 4:10am (Reply to #11343)
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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foscotanner wrote:I am

foscotanner wrote:

I'm as bullish as they come on gold. For me it's a matter of when it turns.

Tomorrow?

My dad's 80 year birthday tomorrow the 17th, 1+7=8 + 80= 8+8=16 the magic number for Gold, 1+6=7 the fatal number, time for a turn!

Yes look at Venezuela, one of the richest countries in the world and totally destroyed by communism/socialism.
Rates in Venezuela are skyrocketing and the currency is complete trash, we are heading into something similar I guess ...

Sun, Sep 16, 2018 - 7:55am
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Fiscal austerity causes

Fiscal austerity causes repercussions. "Democracy" has a price. It gets paid or it does not get paid. Non payment causes different repercussions. Some repercussions are good for some of the people in charge, while other repercussions are good for different people in charge. Likewise with the downside effects of the various repercussions.

In simple words, we get more democracy and pay the price or we move to true democracy and pay the price. Is the democracy we have worth its cost?

During "austerity", have any sectors not been cut back? This is a clue as to the policies you should be looking at, not the tripe in the news. BE FORWARD LOOKING. You can't evaluate the duration of current price swings from data in the news! Every swing ends sometime. Even every retracement.

Use three, six, ten, fifteen, and twenty year chart widths.

A place to start if you want data about what is not discounted into price yet. What departments of your local government are recruiting, wherever you are? Are regional wannabee empires like the EU opening up, or closing off, free speech in their unruly provinces? Which faction is in the ascendant curve? Can you predict the next clash of factions?

I suggest forgetting the funnymental data. Somebody else always gets that before we do if it's worth having. What isn't, we are better off not hearing. Look at the fundamental structure of the participants self interests rather than what they announce.

Fundamental structure: Have bonds topped? If yes, where is the retracement rally from the first decline? If yes, what would deflation do for bond prices? What does deflation do for the people who sell bonds to raise funds? Where will those people deploy such funds? Remember they are short bonds! But they still require rallies (a bond bullish wave) to short more bonds at overvalued prices. Who are they?

Not on your charts yet, soon to be.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Sep 16, 2018 - 8:47am
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Catherine Austin Fitts

Catherine Austin Fitts - We’ve Reached “Never Never Land” Accounting
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Sun, Sep 16, 2018 - 10:44am
zman
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Sprott

Then a guy from Sprott writes a piece completely filled with holes. https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/when-us-stock-market-crashes-buy-gold

His first mistake is claiming that issuing more US bonds will make yields go higher and calls it based on supply and demand. I'm sorry, but it doesn't work in that manner. Either way, he makes the case for gold because the Fed will buy bonds with another QE program. Did he forget how ineffective global QE has been for the price of gold the past 8 years?????

So he's basically suggesting a global slowdown and weak stock market will kill the bond market forcing the Fed to start another QE program. My point to him, so what? Investors aren't going to flood into hard assets because central banks are buying bonds again, been there done that.

One would think that after 10 years of monetary policy people would have learned a few basic lessons, but that's obviously NOT the case at all. A central bank buying assets from the very elite is NOT an inflationary policy, it makes no difference.

The only fashion we could see inflation and a higher velocity of money is with a radical change in FISCAL POLICY!!! Did you notice these fools never mention fiscal policy?

IF the stock market goes down hard, the Fed will buy the SP500 and most likely corporate bonds as government bonds will have plenty of buyers at low yields. None of this will be inflationary, people need to get used to the new world of monetary manipulation.

I stand by my original thesis, they're going to deflate the debt away. Only a few can see it today, it's just a matter of time (6 months) before it becomes obvious.

Mon, Sep 17, 2018 - 5:07am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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"When deflation hits, stay

"When deflation hits, stay out of precious metals markets" I hear that a lot at other forums.

In 2008 that was true, but I am not so sure this time. Take a look at Gold now and compare it with the situation we were in 2008, it's almost a polar opposite.

I do not know, I am only guessing of course, but it feels different this time lol ... time will tell. I might be 2-3months early. The turn is not primarily in the metals, but the miners. Just to make things clear.

Mon, Sep 17, 2018 - 10:37am
zman
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Metal bounce

I also think metals are due for a slight bounce in the next few weeks/months, but will it hold or just breakdown even lower?

The Dow/Gold ratio just broke out to ANOTHER recent high last week, now at almost 22. https://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-c...

We can see on the long term chart that this ratio is likely headed much HIGHER in the years ahead. Which means stocks will continue to outperform gold. It appears the ratio is headed back to the 40 ish level once again. How do we get to Dow 36,000 and $900 gold in the next few years?

Mon, Sep 17, 2018 - 11:05am
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Trading the Vee strategy

Just throwing this out there for consideration.

What if I gave you a simple, specific formula when to short then go long, then sell, and I gave exact dates every year to do this... could you make money in the volatile, unpredictable gold markets? Well you could have over the last five years, each and every year... Here is the formula:

(1) Go short the first week of November

(2) Cover that short and go long the second week of December

(3) Exit the trade the second week of February.

Crazy as it sounds, this takes advantage of the repeating V pattern that we have seen basically every year for the last five years, going into the end of the calendar year. Check it out:

Those are unleveraged gains, no idea what it would have been if you played futures and options (many times greater, of course).

The question is, do we see this for a sixth year in a row? Not one of those prior times did the chart look like it does now, with 5 straight months of merciless decline (except maybe 2014, where the end-of-year bottom came a month early)... that might suggest an earlier V. Also, the COT report has never looked this bullish so early- the COT structure now looks alot like those that appear at the prior V bottoms in early Dec. So maybe our V is early, or maybe the worst is yet to come. Food for thought...

Mon, Sep 17, 2018 - 11:16am (Reply to #11358)
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Nice to see you back posting Pining!

It works, trading the seasonal during highest seasonal volatility.

Would it be better on eg silver? Possibly with a 1 month shift of the dates if testing demanded?

Also, what does it do in a bull market? You are optimising a seasonal trade for the bear. But a downtrend is only one of the four market types: trend up, trend down, ranging less volatile, ranging more volatile. Does the seasonal generate profits in the other phases of market? My guess would be the date might move 2 weeks earlier, then do a double bottom, but I haven't looked in recent years to see it is still that way.

This will be a good year, providing the support holds. If it doesn't this system becomes a JS trade. For which stops can be used of course.But I have reservations about stops where central bank hedge trade markets are concerned. Can you get GTC ATZ stops? (good till cancelled all time zones) Even by entry into al alternative hedge asset. Got to respect that 2 AM shift, Far East holidays, etc, etc .....

It's nice to see you're perusing the page and tossing (good) ideas into the ring.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Sep 17, 2018 - 11:49am
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Thanks AM!

I always lurk and read everything, but between a personal commitment to trading (I've discovered about myself that publicly posting about trades etc has a bad effect on my ability to respond to the markets and jump in/exit... the human desire to be publicly right alters my judgment) plus major (good) things happening for me in my "real job". So I've been just trading and working.

But I have been keeping my eye on the upcoming Dec-March timeframe for years now, thanks to a certain analyst ;-) so I do expect big changes in the way metals trade. Bear or sideways churn market techniques may not work going forward. As always, the tricky part is identifying and catching the turn... then deciding on what vehicles are best suited to your own personal trading style/preferences, in order to maximize returns. Not sure if I have this one yet, aside from the widow-makers NUGT and JNUG.

And no, with my current broker I cannot get overnight stops to be honored, and am thus subject to the London stop-runs... only way I can figure to avoid it is be right!

Mon, Sep 17, 2018 - 4:20pm
zman
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Pento missing it here

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/reality-check-now-progress

Correct me if I'm wrong, but "These central banks are being forced into a tightening monetary policy due to rising consumer prices"

Really? Of all the major central banks only the Federal Reserve has hiked rates, but was it due to "rising consumer prices"? The CRB commodity index is still down -50% from 2011 and near -75% from 2007. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gsci

"and asset bubbles that have become a major risk to economic stability"

Really? The Dow at 26,000 and Nasdaq at 8000 is a problem now? The risk is a low stock market, NOT a high market.

No Micheal, the reason why the Fed decided to hike rates was to keep the dollar strong and then have an excuse to go to negative interest rates and buy corporate assets (stocks and bonds).

"The truth is as long as the bond bubble kept inflating it was able to mask huge imbalances"

I have news for him, he hasn't even seen a bond bubble yet. He's going to be surprised when it sees the US debt at $30 trillion and the 30 year bond yielding 1%. Yes, deflation is going to really make the bond bubble, but the problem for him it's going to take decades to burst.

Tue, Sep 18, 2018 - 2:19am (Reply to #11359)
foscotanner
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Quirky trends....

The Christmas v..... I like it.....

I remember seeing the analysis around 2011 that said since 2000, if you bought gold at come open and sold at the close every day you lost money.... But buying at the close and selling at the open and you made over 800%.....

A recent trend I have noticed is that you could do this by buying 6am UK time and selling by around mid morning. No idea why but the UK early hours seems to see a bit of a bid....

Like all of these trends, they work until they don't..... Very useful to be aware of them....

Fair to say we are all itching to find the bottom of ythe v this coming few months :-)

Tue, Sep 18, 2018 - 4:35pm
zman
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Interest rates/ tariffs

Looks like a pretty decent move UP in US bond yields today- 2 year -2.80%, 10 year- 3.05% and 30 year- 3.19%.

If I had to guess we have another 2 months of yields moving higher, they have to let the "shooting fish in a barrel" crowd to get their bond shorts up to their eye balls. Do these people really think we can live with higher yields?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/18/new-us-chinese-tariffs-could-prolong-tra...

Well look at this, the boys of Wall Street celebrating economic tariffs, now why would they celebrate something that's hurts US companies bottom lines? Because these "tariffs" are completely meaningless in nature, "10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods". This is pure theater and nothing more. This does NOTHING for US workers, no company is bringing production back to the US with this tariff. How much would this reduce the US trade deficit with China? 5% at most, this is a very sad joke.

I will say one thing, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dems do really well in the Nov. elections. What has Trump done for the US working class? NOTHING. If Trump and the R's take a nasty defeat in Nov., I expect to see some market issues as they begin to question the "Trump booming economy".

Wed, Sep 19, 2018 - 7:25am
Wed, Sep 19, 2018 - 10:49pm
Solsson
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Woke up 3:22 this morning,

Woke up 3:22 this morning, that's a first ever I guess. Walked into the kitchen to take a mouthful of milk and get back to sleep when I looked at the microwave own clock 3:22 ...

I knew Bo Polny was up to something ..

Maybe for once he is right ..

Market TOP September 19 - 24 😨 CRASH & GLOBAL AWAKENING NEXT!

#Pining, welcome back hope your foot-toe healed well

Thu, Sep 20, 2018 - 4:05pm
zman
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Dow Hits All-Time High

So after a big 9 month consolidation for the Dow, it just broke out to an all time high. After this type of consolidation breakout, we should see a solid 25-35% move higher in the next 9-12 months. Can you say Dow 35,000? It's coming guys.

I would also expect to see new all-time highs for the emerging stock markets as well, that's where the big gains can be made.

People have to understand, valuations do NOT matter, either do interest rates, yield curves, earnings growth, PE's or even economic conditions. Stocks HAVE to go higher because we can't function without higher stock prices. Stocks have a put option, IF it were to trade lower the Fed has already indicated they will be a BUYER of stocks!!!! It doesn't get any better guys, the Fed has the back of the stock market.

The best part of it, this isn't inflationary at all because most of the stock is owned by the very few. So it's going to be more of the same, higher stocks, low interest rates and low commodity prices (gold/silver). They have no option, all of these markets must stay in that range.

People are wasting their time looking in the past history of financial markets, this is the bubble that can NOT burst and therefore will NOT burst. The best way to look at this is that these are NOT markets, this is central planning by the government with the appearance of free trading markets.

I repeat, the Dow/Gold ratio continues to go higher and will go much higher than most think is possible. There's not point of getting upset and blaming anyone about this whole deal, it's just the way it is. The people in power are in complete control that's just the way it goes.

Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 3:06am
Solsson
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Ray Dalio often knows what he

Ray Dalio often knows what he is talking about, worth listening to imo.

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Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 11:22am
zman
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m

With all due respect, Dalio has been full of poop and wrong for many years now. How many "the sky is falling experts" have we heard from in the past 3-4 years? Countless.

Even the big banks have been putting out all of the warnings the last 12-18 months, what has happened? NOTHING.

What these guys won't tell you is that we do NOT have the luxury of a lower stock market, yes it's a luxury to have markets trade freely, we no longer have it today. We can NOT exist with the Dow at 16000, or the 10 year bond at 6%, or gold at 1600 oz.

The fiscal policies are structured to make sure none of these markets trade in that fashion. It's only going to get worse as the debt grows larger.

Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - 11:54am
Solsson
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Let the FRED be your Friend,

Let the FRED be your Friend, just look at the trend. This is a 14 trillion megaton oil tanker and it will not change direction anytime soon. This is M2 money stock:

The tapering that is ongoing now is barely visible. Another interesting fact is how the money stock supply changed gear during the 2008 crisis, it just took off. What would happen if we will experiencing something similar in the near future?

Ask Russia and China why they are buying gold, is it because it's a beautiful metal or is it to preserve their wealth in the future? Maybe both when you think about it lol ...

I think Rob Kirby/Chris Martenson both are on to something here

ROB KIRBY - Foreigners will Abandon the Dollar End Of Fiat Currency
Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - 10:38am
zman
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Trying so hard

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-24/bonds-dollar-dump-draghi-warns...

Wow, sounds so scary there. "As Bund yields (10 year) spiked" to .51%.

It's called talking a big game and making dam sure there's never any form of real economic growth or inflation. Most of the EU bonds trade with negative yields, they're NOT going to inflate their debt away, they decided years ago to deflate it away. They just can't tell the public that's been the real plan.

The same is goal coming to the US in 2019, shorting the US 10 year bond at 3-3.30% is going to look very foolish at same point in the future.

Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - 10:22pm
Solsson
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As above so below, look up

As above so below, look up and you will find the answers to what is happening below.

Wow the full moon is a true energizer at least in a low volume, low interest market. Most of my miners is either up 7-11% or down ...

A Harvest Full Moon, I hope the harvest thing really means plant your seed

randomness