The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Sep 9, 2018 - 8:04am Solsson
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I'm sure it makes sense to someone

but just can't wrap my mind around the stuff. Thanks for posting the silver chart. Looks like we bounce into October then crash into the end of the year.

kentucky
Sun, Sep 9, 2018 - 10:43am
kentucky
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Bearish

Just looking at when most people joined. 11, 12, 13 is the most common. Gold been bearish since and is still. Most pundits are like AM looking for a rally short term up into wave IV then down hard to wave V. It is almost universal.

kentucky
Sun, Sep 9, 2018 - 7:08pm
Silver_Surfer
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Who would have thought... The

Who would have thought... The Netherlands decided to stop supporting Syrian opposition. Looks like Europe is turning.

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Mon, Sep 10, 2018 - 6:35am zman
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ZMAN DEFLATIONARY SCENERIO

I felt compelled to post this piece which seems to dovetail w/Zman's recent narrative. Interesting perspctive on gold.

https://rambus1.com/2018/09/09/weekend-report-part-ii-the-coming-global-...

Mon, Sep 10, 2018 - 7:06am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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"So that’s what we are going

"So that’s what we are going to do. Go to cash. Now I understand that like me, you probably own some issues that you just don’t want to sell even though you are underwater. That’s ok we will make a few exceptions. But for the most part it’s time to sell and wait for the bottom to present itself. In the mean time here is what I am doing":

hmm ... time to sell...it's like a natural law to wrong foot even the clever ones if they do not look at the right place. I am not smart/skilled enough to figure this one out, that's why I am long already, looking at the bigger picture.

My spider sense tells me something is up, rather sooner than later imo.

I admit this is very tricky ...

Mon, Sep 10, 2018 - 10:16am Solsson
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Slolsson....TRICKY INDEED!

With Rambus calling for 915? Will it happen first? Or is it already discounted. As in real estate: trade location, trade location, trade location.

Mon, Sep 10, 2018 - 1:16pm
zman
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Fed response-

Fed response- https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-10/fed-should-buy-stocks-next-rec...

I have always stated the Federal Reserve response to the deflation will be to save the elite and destroy the peasants, but the deflation will still remain in the general economy.

"Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren- if we need it, we could clearly double it and nothing terrible would happen"

He's actually correct, if the Fed wants to buy $4 trillion of SP 500, I doubt much of anything other than getting the rich even richer will happen. The funny this is, the US public is going to see the massive corporate tax cut and then a massive QE stock buying program while they see massive cuts to social security, medicare, food stamps and every other social program.

It's coming folks and the elite aren't afraid of the US public. The bailout for the elite will make 2008 seem like nothing, but the difference this time will be the pounding for the peasants. Every media outlet will be telling Americans it's the patriotic thing to do and they must save the financial system. Hell, they'll even use politicians like Elizabeth Warren telling the US public 'it's the only thing we can do'.

They're not even hiding it, it's for all to see.

Mon, Sep 10, 2018 - 9:22pm
zman
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tax cuts??

Tax cuts for Joe Six-Pack? Not a chance in hell. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/10/house-republicans-target-more-tax-cuts-a...

The pathetic crumbs for Joe Six-Pack can't happen now because 'we can't afford it'.

Like I said- "tax cuts as a giveaway to big corporations and the rich that will lead to cuts in Social Security and Medicare", very sad but true.

When the Fed starts buying trillions of stocks and corporate bonds, they're going to need to give counter it with the massive cuts for the public.

This isn't any sort of secret anymore, the elite are telling everybody what's going to happen. There's no helicopter money coming for Main Street, it's only going to end up on Wall Street. The American public have proven themselves to be compliant victims of abuse, I really don't even blame the elite anymore. Why wouldn't they continue to do what they do?

Tue, Sep 11, 2018 - 9:59am
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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#zman I agree with you, but

#zman

I agree with you, but ...

"He's actually correct, if the Fed wants to buy $4 trillion of SP 500, I doubt much of anything other than getting the rich even richer will happen. The funny this is, the US public is going to see the massive corporate tax cut and then a massive QE stock buying program"

That would be beneficial for precious metals I guess, dilutes the dollar or do you mean they already printed the 4trillion dollars?

A 911 moment in Silver today GSR at +85 indicating that something is up or going down ...

Tue, Sep 11, 2018 - 10:40am Solsson
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Solsson wrote: #zman I agree

Solsson wrote:

#zman

I agree with you, but ...

"He's actually correct, if the Fed wants to buy $4 trillion of SP 500, I doubt much of anything other than getting the rich even richer will happen. The funny this is, the US public is going to see the massive corporate tax cut and then a massive QE stock buying program"

That would be beneficial for precious metals I guess, dilutes the dollar or do you mean they already printed the 4trillion dollars?

A 911 moment in Silver today GSR at +85 indicating that something is up or going down ...

When a central bank buys assets (stocks/bonds), does that benefit precious metals? I think the evidence is clearly NO. Look at Japan, how is gold priced in Yen doing today? Bad.

Buying financial assets with printed money does NOT dilute the currency because those assets are owned by the very few, and when they receive the cash for the stock or bond that money NEVER enters the real economy. The only reason why they used QE in the first place is they already knew it wasn't going to be inflationary.

Also, when or if it happens, ALL central banks will be doing the same thing. The US dollar won't be any different than the rest of the gang.

Ask Eric Rosengren- if instead of buying trillion of SP500, the Fed buys trillion of student, credit card, auto debt and "nothing terrible would happen"? Or maybe even better, stop deducting Federal and SS from payroll taxes and have the Fed make up the difference!!! You know, have the money enter the real economy. NO chance in hell!!!!!

There's a reason why PM's are trading down here, investors already know IF there's ever a need for stimulus, it's not going to be inflationary in nature.

Tue, Sep 11, 2018 - 4:08pm
zman
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aa

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-11/race-top-how-fed-unleashed-glo...

Yes, US global money supply continues to drop. "the Fed's tightening campaign... is provoking a 'race to the top'"

This isn't any brainless policy, they know exactly what they're doing. King Dollar and deflation is the plan.

Why choose this path? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-11/budget-deficit-soars-895-billi...

"net interest on public debt jumped 25%"

How in the world could they manage growing debt and higher interest rates? Basic math tells us that can NOT happen. The fix is too drag this mess on for another 10 to 20 years? Negative interest rates!!!

Tue, Sep 11, 2018 - 5:46pm
Solsson
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Ankeborg
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Nothing goes up or down in a

Nothing goes up or down in a straight line, is this time different? A turn now would be nice.

is this the infamous "hanging-dick-pattern"? Looks like a running of stops- Who is painting this chart?

me thinks Mother Nature will crush the nuts of the guy's who tries to play fake Gods in the not so distant future. When Mother Nature says hello no one can take the heat. Not Mr Trump, not Mrs Merkel and not the FED-Wall Street bankster cabal.

Edit:

I just love these frequency numbers, they are so spot on. I really do not know what I am talking about. I rely solely on intuition, that is true and that is what I call spider sense.

"Number 909 encourages you to follow your gut instincts and listen to your intuition. Your intuition brings you inspiration, guidance, visions and ideas to ponder and pursue that are intended to guide you in the direction of your highest good. Be in touch with your intuition as this is your inner-guidance system. Your inner-guidance system speaks directly to you through all of your senses."

Tue, Sep 11, 2018 - 6:43pm
silver66
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interesting interview with a mathematician

turned hedge fund guy

Billionaire Mathematician - Numberphile

Enjoy

Silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Tue, Sep 11, 2018 - 7:44pm
zman
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gold/silver ratio

https://goldstockbull.com/articles/alert-gold-to-silver-ratio-spikes-to-...

Yes, another ratio screaming deflation, now at near 85 today. Could we test the 1990 ratio of 100? I'm sure we will this time, if not higher. So are we talking $900 gold and $9 silver, or even worse?

The next ratio to watch is the Gold/Bond (30 year) ratio. Today we are just a few (7%) points away from taking out the 2015 low. I said a while ago if we break that level, even the morons on TV will know something is very wrong. It's coming and it's likely to happen in the next few months, if not sooner in my opinion.

Wed, Sep 12, 2018 - 2:16am
foscotanner
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Could do with a turn.

Interesting close for miners yesterday....

Some interesting points or opportunities today and tomorrow to gap price....

Its very due. Might be short lived, but if its going to go down hard.... Then you squeeze the shorts first to shake a few out. They have not been squeezed....

Lots of people waiting for the rally though. But most are waiting to sell it... Sub 1000 here we come.... Only if we were to pop up then all and sundry will be looking to sell the rally for the nosedive... Good conditions for a surprise big rally. Its just it doesn't feel right time wise.... But....

Wed, Sep 12, 2018 - 4:41am foscotanner
Solsson
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foscotanner wrote:Lots of

foscotanner wrote:

Lots of people waiting for the rally though. But most are waiting to sell it... Sub 1000 here we come.... Only if we were to pop up then all and sundry will be looking to sell the rally for the nosedive... Good conditions for a surprise big rally. Its just it doesn't feel right time wise.... But....

My point exactly, what if it just takes off, that would wrong foot most I guess ...

Gold&Silver can still rise even if GSR gets higher the so called TSHTF scenario. I've never been in this situation before so I have no knowledge or wisdom, just guessing with my intuition as a source.

Wed, Sep 12, 2018 - 11:16am
zman
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Socialism

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-12/chicago-task-force-looks-imple...

As we approach the Nov. elections we are going to keep hearing more about "socialist" programs for the broke peasants. I have news for everyone, none of it is ever going to happen!!

We didn't get here by mistake, the people in power didn't accidently get Americans filled with unpayable amounts of debt. They didn't accidently ship tens of millions of jobs out of the US. They didn't accidently allow tens of millions of illegal/legal immigrants into the US.

There's not going to be any free UBI, free college, free health care or anything else. In fact, with the massive amount of debt in the system, we're going to see the opposite. They're going to start CUTTING social services!!

People don't understand the economics at all. They're not going to go to a voting booth and elect someone who's going to destroy a tens of trillions of wealth from the elite, NOT going to happen!!

There's a reason why despite huge deficits, QT, reported GDP of over 4%, "low unemployment", "higher wages", oil over $70 per barrel and the Trump booming economy the 10 year bond is STILL UNDER 3%. Why doesn't this add up? Because the very smart money knows is mostly BS propaganda and what's coming is highly deflationary with no stimulus for the real economy.

The ultimate goal is the preservation of the debt and currency, so that means no "socialism" programs for the peasants, not going to happen. The MSM will portray it like it's a real debate taking place, similar to the "trade wars, tariffs" but it will be a big nothing burger.

Wed, Sep 12, 2018 - 6:26pm Solsson
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I have not been able to play

I have not been able to play with the charts.... But if you look at the gold bear from 1980..... It has a nice dip at the end..... Something argentus drew my attention to when looking at something else....

So you look at bear from 2011. It has the nice dip in gold and silver recently..... Kind of got my attention.

What's missing is the impulse move out of it.... If its a really key bottom, then it would be nice if most of the dip was reversed this month.... Otherwise, we my well be heading down.... But there is scope to kind of just go up, up and up.... Since there are shorts to cover....

Thu, Sep 13, 2018 - 1:12pm
UncleFester
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Gold $ price has been

Gold $ price has been stubborn, I might have to modify my last count.

I have a set of walking liberties silver coins that I play with like gamblers do with their poker chips, is that weird?

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Thu, Sep 13, 2018 - 9:22pm UncleFester
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"I have a set of walking

"I have a set of walking liberties silver coins that I play with like gamblers do with their poker chips, is that weird?"

It's no weirder than Uncle Fester!