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The setup for the big trade

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Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 12:29pm
Bum in the library...
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SI buyer

who's buying silver now? :-)

Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 1:28pm (Reply to #11232)
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Based upon information

Based upon information available now, long term I'll probably wait until Q2 2020 to buy and hold silver in its USD cross. There might be useful swings I can identify sooner that can be accessed. We shall see.

Which seems strange given the large gold inflection this year. I assume that how silver behaves at the gold inflection will tell me something that can be used constructively.

If it stops Dec this year - then about 14.40

but ....

If it breaks that low for this year, and runs until Q2 2020 - then something above 11 bucks that harks back to the 2009 low and respects seniority of that important price level.

Here is a monthly for Si continuation contract:

Two possible price-time locations for a bear ending are marked with pink circles. Naturally the progress of walk forward price action can generate other scenarios.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 1:37pm
zman
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Look at the China stock

Look at the China stock market today, down almost -4%. The China stock market, currency and economy are all going down the tubes here. If they don't purchase commodities here, we're going to see another 2008 or worse.

The China stock market had a great run the past year or so and might be just starting to crack, it's a great short in my opinion.

I hate to say it, but gold and silver will not function in this type of economic environment, unless something changes big time. 

Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 1:43pm (Reply to #11229)
zman
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argentus maximus wrote: Never

argentus maximus wrote:

Never underestimate how creative these clowns can be when using other peoples' money to get what they want.

Consider this as one example of how QE could be given to the public, but at the same time the money is actually given to the banker members of the Fed:

Debt moritorium, or zero interest rates on delinquent student loans, whereby the indebted student takes on more debt eg buys property and then qualifies for the relief on the old never-to-be-repaid debt. Selling points: look how much rent money you will save if you avail yourself of this one time in a lifetime deal. 

Delinquent student loans get exchanges for mortgages, the bad debts are sponsored with taxpayers money, the debt load is sustained thus not reducing the number of dollars in existence, etc.

It could be done with credit card debt. It could be done with free medical care of bankrupt boomer pensioners, sign your house and we take care of you, live in the house till you die, then it goes to us.

There are lots of ways ....

I have no doubts the plan is to establish a whole generation of debt slaves through policy. Is that really a QE for Mainstreet or just a quick grab for the few assets owned by the peasants?

There is no form of financial insurance, when you control fiscal and monetary policy, you control everything. 

Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 6:33pm (Reply to #11235)
eclectic
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Congrats Z-Man

"That a Strong Dollar is used as a Weapon against countrys like Venezuela ,CUBA ,Turkey ..it seems their debts are killing them as the Dollar rises also oil is priced in Dollars so it also gets more expensive for its buyers like China …..

This may be the reason Gold & Silver are weak as the Dollar is being used as a FOREIGN POLICY tool and also may force Turkey to sell its GOLD like Venezuela had to do to pay debts……The Dollar kills those who debts are in Dollars and shakes their Gold loose to pay debts ……When these Foreign Policy objectives are met we can devalue and everything goes into reverse…Gold goes up after Turkey and Venezuela have sold their GOLD….to pay dollar debts..and so it goes…Gold dosent protect those whose DEBTS are in Dollars !Keep your debts in a weak currency ,your assets in a strong one…thats an old adage that many never learned."=====================

This a a repost from another bugs site. Confirms what zman has been saying. I think he has all the macro stuff figured right. I think the end-game is to get as many physical holders to dump their stash b/c they will need it to pay bills. Then buy assets for 10 cents on the dollar. Like the author says about Turkey and Venezuela above. Also like the BOE did in 2001 when they sold their gold. Who was buying I wonder?

Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 6:39pm (Reply to #11236)
eclectic
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Frank Holmes: Post # 11216

Holmes stellar track record continues. When he is trotted out for some comments: sell short and sleep well.

Wed, Aug 15, 2018 - 8:41pm
zman
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Some guys just double down

Some guys just double down when they don't understand what's really happening. 

https://marketsanity.com/category/investment-gurus/others/michael-pento/

"Michael Pento: We will soon see rapid inflation globally"

No Michael, we are seeing the destruction of money (debt) and we are seeing lower prices. Yes, if people own a weak 3rd world currency, basic items will still be a little more expensive. If you own a Euro, Yen, Pound or Dollar- everything is getting cheaper.

TPBT are going with debt (bond) destruction and deflation. Look at the gold/bond ratio, it's just a little bit away from the Dec. 2015 low. Once we break that low, the whole world is going to start noticing that something is going wrong. Even the morons on CNBC and FOX will start wondering what's going on.

Look at copper and oil, this is starting to show the cracks. The money to be made is going to be shorting assets, not owning them. Sorry Michael, there's no stimulus coming to save the day, there's no white knight coming to the rescue.

Trump might end up looking like a fool, but he is powerless to do anything about it. Can this deflation take a break before the Nov. elections? I have my doubts. 

Thu, Aug 16, 2018 - 1:28am
Solsson
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Wow what a smack down

Wow what a smack down yesterday. Isn't there a Phi number hidden in there, Gold at 1161,8 cheeky is this the low for the bear?

I am surprised about the weakness in both Gold&Silver I thought this process was a thing for year end?

Summer doldrum, low volume and interest. TPTB1 taking advantage of the moment while TPTB2 is sleeping.

We will soon find out.

Fri, Aug 17, 2018 - 8:59am
kentucky
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Armstrong

kentucky
Fri, Aug 17, 2018 - 10:25am
UncleFester
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Update

Right now I have this as 3 of 3 wave down, so I'm expecting even lower $ prices in the near future.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Y8RLg4L/

Dave thinks it is coordinated effort by the usual suspects (COMEX/London/BIS) to suppress the "alarm" signal.

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/

Be careful out there!

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Fri, Aug 17, 2018 - 11:55am (Reply to #11241)
zman
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UncleFester wrote: Right now

UncleFester wrote:

Right now I have this as 3 of 3 wave down, so I'm expecting even lower $ prices in the near future.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Y8RLg4L/

Dave thinks it is coordinated effort by the usual suspects (COMEX/London/BIS) to suppress the "alarm" signal.

https://investmentresearchdynamics.com/

Be careful out there!

Who was selling gold this week? Did the bankers start shorting again? We will find out shortly. 

Fri, Aug 17, 2018 - 2:50pm
silver66
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Blow back ...is it unanticipated

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

Sun, Aug 19, 2018 - 4:33pm
Pete
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Dec Gold R1

The Dec Gold chart shows R1 reached last week with signs of a turn--higher Friday settlement led to immediate short covering.

At least a bounce would be in the cards, it seems.

But the R1 line of the continuation chart is lower and has not been reached.

Also, the possibility of a large ABC for Wave Two being completed is remote on the continuation chart; the 90% minimum retracement required per EWave for an irregular flat remains untouched at 1149.60. That level is where I'm looking to buy.

Ewave count of this leg down supports further lows, agreed.

Mon, Aug 20, 2018 - 10:22am
zman
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https://www.zerohedge.com/new

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-20/short-squeeze-begins-treasury-...

The key sign is watching the yield on the 2 year bond, IF the yield starts trading lower it will give the Fed the freedom to stop hiking. It appears the dumb money is stuck in a massive short position in bonds, whatever could go wrong?

I mean shorting bonds with a booming Trump economy with 6 more rate hikes is like shooting fish in a barrel, free money folks- short US bonds!!!! Not so quick. 

Tue, Aug 21, 2018 - 1:55pm
zman
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Look at this, Trump

Look at this, Trump complaining about the Fed. Well, I hate to break the news, but the Fed is making the US Dollar STRONGER, not weaker.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/20/trump-criticizes-powell-and-fed-says-fed...

Who in their right mind really thought Trump was going to implement economic tariffs, spend trillions rebuilding America and have the dollar trade lower? Nice try Trump, but you have done NOTHING!!

His rhetoric about the Fed and the dollar will die in a few days/weeks and the plan will go on as usual. Lets talk about that next monthly trade deficit number, nope not a word.

Thu, Aug 23, 2018 - 10:24am
UncleFester
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zman

A stronger dollar may be temporary, gotta be prepared either way.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eiZCh7mf/

Nice to see you again Pete, thanks for the charts.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Thu, Aug 23, 2018 - 2:02pm (Reply to #11247)
eclectic
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Frank Holmes

The Big Boys want to add to their shorts so they trotted out their favorite water carrier.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

n the coming Fed meeting in Jackson Hole, Holmes said that investors are expecting more rate hikes, a stronger dollar, and hence pressure on gold.

“We see a big futures bet where leverage is 10 and 20 to one, betting that bonds are going to fall further, gold is going to fall further, and the U.S. dollar is going to explode. And when that’s crowded bet, and when we have gold over 12-month rolling for 15 years down one standard deviation, the odds are even greater that we get a big rally,” Holmes told Kitco News.

https://www.thestreet.com/video/can-gold-get-jackson-hole-bounce-14690311

Thu, Aug 23, 2018 - 3:38pm
kentucky
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Ron Rosen, TGD, Randomoski,

Ron Rosen, TGD, Randomoski, Rambus, Ski, AM, all the E-Wave guys, Armstrong, zman, uncle fester, frank holmes contrarian indicator, Stuart Thompson buying puts makes me wonder. I too am very bearish which is really a cause for concern.

kentucky
Thu, Aug 23, 2018 - 3:49pm
zman
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It will be interesting to

It will be interesting to see, but did the bankers just start selling metals again? If so, this is big big trouble for the PM market. If that's the case, the Dec. 2015 low is toast in my opinion. Maybe the speculative money is on the correct side of the trade here with their short position.

The main issue- it appears the US dollar had the "Trump" correction and is now ready to blastoff into new highs once again.

I'm starting to really think there's nothing that can or will stop the US dollar and the global deflationary forces. This is a policy choice by TPTB, they want to deflate the debt away.

Trump is completely immaterial, he's toast at every level. It was nice having a glimmer of hope for the American people, but that pipe dream has been crushed. 

Thu, Aug 23, 2018 - 6:22pm (Reply to #11250)
eclectic
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Z-MAN'S COMMENTS

I hate to admit it but you might be right. This weekend 'wrong way' J.S. and Bill Holter are giving the following presentation called 'when to now'. To wit: "Bill and I have been invited to be interviewed together on this unique connection of the dots by Greg Hunter this coming Friday for weekend presentation."

Well, that should be good for another $200 down. Gawd you'd think they have been bought out by going over to the dark side. What happened when 1650 was supposed to be a floor? He's the Bo Polny of fundamentals. Reminds me of this same time back in August, 1976 but at least then to low came in on the 31st. Can it mean be $961? (a 50% decline)

Here is one gentleman's sentiments, copied from another public blog. 

Jim Sinclair

Posted by eeos @ 15:48 on August 23, 2018

Oh man I hate it when Jim Sinclair weighs in. Seriously gym $50,000 gold no effing way. Now we’re probably open to $500 gold we’re going to get flushed like crazy. I’m very suspect of this rich old fart. I’m not even sure which team he really cheers for.

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