The setup for the big trade

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Sun, Aug 5, 2018 - 4:35am
Solsson
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#zmanWhat would happen to the

#zman


What would happen to the value of all of the federal, state and corporate debt which is mainly owned by the elite? It would be destroyed, not gonna happen under their watch."

Debt destroyed for the elite, I think they would embrace that outcome. Maybe Mr T was hired to destroy US debt?

"Do you really think the elite are going to let the peasants inflate their trillions of mortgage, auto, student, and credit card debt away? No chance in hell. "

Maybe if they still came out on top gaining 1000times more than us. How about an asymmetric debt deal by the elite. We keep the old currency for our savings and get our debt re-structured with a new currency haha ... where is my pitchfork again,

"Yes, over a very long period of time the devaluation is obvious for all to see. The problem is that people don't have a long enough life to invest against that loss of purchasing power. In my opinion, there is absolutely no pure hedge against the higher cost of living in a first world nation, it doesn't exist. Yes, if one were to own gold for 50 plus years, they might be able to at least breakeven at best. "

No in just 10years! Look at the charts I posted, gold went from $350 to $1900, that is +400%! With a little bit of knowledge you could have gained a fortune for the last decade and a half. The Swedish government introduced some very aggressive reforms regarding capital management a decade ago. For a Swede with a little bit of interest in cap.management it has been quite easy to do great. It is as if they wants to create a society with extreme class distinctions. See the elite and a reasonable informed middle class gaining together.

Gold has been the answer to devaluation for the last 18years, look at the charts again. Gold will still be the answer for the decade to come.

Here is a camp3 dude, SHTF scenario:

https://goldswitzerland.com/hyperinflationary-gold-at-175-billion-dollars/

I am not sure about this, but are all the money that has been printed the last decade already being spent? I don't think so, it is still sitting on major banks balance sheet. Ready to be injected into the economy when we will get the next credit freeze, debt implosion. The big banks are not allowed to use the money. They are waiting for a signal from the CB's.

Sun, Aug 5, 2018 - 6:07am
Solsson
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The Bearish camp (the moving

The Bearish camp (the moving average gurus) are growing:

Aaron Christopher = at iGold is Bearish

Jordan Roy-Byrne = The Daily Gold is Bearish

Rombus = at Goldtent is Bearish

...

Sun, Aug 5, 2018 - 7:35am
Solsson
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Ronnie Fattal is bearish

Ronnie Fattal is bearish ...

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold & Silver as of 4th August 2018

the path to $1000 gold is open ...

Edit:

Oh, Bo Polny was wrong about a gold&silver spike in July. He is now pumping bitcoin only

Who Wants To Be A Bitcoin MILLIONAIRE? (Bo Polny)

Jim Willie is on fire, he thinks that US needs to source gold a.s.a.p

To Prepare For The Transition The US Must Source Gold Or We Fall Into A 3rd World Nation:Jim Willie
Sun, Aug 5, 2018 - 7:48pm
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Nice comments on QAnon

Thoughts on QAnon by Lee Stranahan.

This is a nice summary of a good chunk of my thoughts on this Trump/Republican administration psyop.

People get "educated" by this new Q, who is NOT the original Q, in the things we are already aware of. And due to their "new patience on account of the ongoing invisible progress behind the scenes" the administration gains more time to achieve its work. So instead of being critical at lack of effective change, they wait. Who does that benefit?

Got to give Stranahan credit. He introduces the cold reading phrase in this video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCwAWxJUAOc

I wonder how many Q enthusiasts will suddenly see the phraseology used in Q reports that went unnoticed before, for what it is, after watching this. probably not that many.

Here is a hint: Whenever you notice the words "Yes, but ..." coming out of your mouth, you need to stop and have a re-think of accepted (as true and reliable) narratives within you that are of dubious quality.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Aug 5, 2018 - 9:55pm
zman
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@solsson

"Debt destroyed for the elite. I think they would embrace that outcome"

I can't see how large owners of bonds would what to see their value cut by -50% or more. Deflation allows for high bond prices and a some form of interest payments. What more can you ask for as an elite?

"asymmetric debt deal by the elite"

For sure, if there's ever an official currency reset, the peasants are stuck with the same debt burden if not multiples more in real terms.

"Ready to be injected into the economy when we will get the next credit freeze"

Oh, I'm sure they will bailout the bond defaults of credit cards, auto loans, student loans, mortgages and even state and municipal debt. But that money already entered the economy, as we know bailing out bondholders does NOTHING for the real world economy.

Will they inject money into the real economy? I doubt it. The only reason the US got out of the depression was because of WW2, there was no other reason. Otherwise a downward credit cycle can last many decades, we are only 10 years into this cycle.

If investors truly thought there was going to be even a small chance of massive money to be injected into the real economy, hard assets would already be trading at least double the current price. Hard assets are telling us what the future holds if we enter a economic slowdown- there's no white knight to save the day. Deflation is the best option and that's what TPBT have decided.

Mon, Aug 6, 2018 - 7:35am (Reply to #11196)
Mon, Aug 6, 2018 - 9:58am
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Silver66's post - inflation or deflation?

As a follow up to Silver66's post regarding the elites making a choice between inflation or deflation:

In my view this will not be a choice but a Hobson's choice, and both sides of the elites will be making a different choice, and there is currently an argument as to who gets what they want.

The right+ left (the political class of the right and the left) are going to get put out of power by rising democratic movements (which they call populism), these populist parties being also right and left but composed of new individuals. There are some Trojan horse faces among them who represent the old guard but hope to capitalize on the rising new parties rather than the older established ones.

The elite above the political class and beside them (the corporatist, globalist and oligarch (=individual corporatist) ) factions observe a greedy and aggressive political class grabbing a larger slice of the economic pie than they used to get in the past, and are happy to clip its wings before such a class can threaten them.

So those are the powers contesting this. And their lines are confused. eg the EU is a body of political class who want more power to enable them to withstand multinational oligarch-corporatist powers better. Only they become globalist to do so, and they are heavily infiltrated by communist and US influence. This means the EU is a divided house with some purification phases in its' future until one component becomes dominant. Populism emerging above a certain threshold could be a good thing, but could also trigger a punitive reaction from the higher elites, which would replicate the causes of the Spanish Civil War.

A visual reminder from Wikipedia's page on SCW:

That was began 1936, from the middle and lower class gaining the balance of power, and the establishment, church and land owning elites preparing a coup to use arms against the democratic government of Spain. The coup was prevented, and shortly after it went to war.

- 1936 + 75 and 82 and 84 and 89 years

- which are the relevant periods would give

- 2011; 2018, 2020, 2025

One of those dates has been passed, one is current and one is in the medium term future. So take a look at Spain and also Europe and see for yourself if unrest has similar characteristics. Also, by implication, a move towards greater war over larger regional territory would follow - historically WW2 erupted three years after the Spanish Civil War began.

We approach one of the deciding moments at which we elect the chosen path forwards. A decision, or conflict resolution between ruling factions will decide this inflection in the context, inflation for asset owners or deflation in favour of the indebted. This will be shown at the end of this 2018 by the gold price either hitting bottom and bouncing, or by gold breaking down to significantly lower long term trading range, and trading there until the next inflection os similar importance.

During the coming six months the inflections roll by with different specific dates for the different assets.

By the way - to those who follow ,y work with closer access, my next Rhythm and Price (RNP) webinar is next Thursday 9th of August 21:00, GMT / 16:00 EDT / 14:00 MDT / 13:00 PDT, for EU residents 22:00 CET. I and about 15 to 20 people who are more interested than the average will be considering this kind of stuff, using markets at measuring tools, and I will be answering questions for a half hour or more.

If you don't follow my work directly there will always be posts here in The Setup For The Big Trade, with the occasional front page blog article to read.

As the chart above demonstrates, trading often is sometimes better avoided. Always provided that there is a method when foregoing every single breakout, to not miss those which will grow later on into big moves. This is a reliable recognition of scale, which I have always said is one of the most challenging problems we must overcome within markets.

So I have to make a lot of posts here at times when I am decided to do nothing, take no actions in the market. Sitting still is actually a conscious action as it happens. I hope that the posts I make during these long waiting periods are worthy and beneficial to you my readers, and I try to make them worth your time.

I do think the coming 12 to 25 weeks will be rather busy. Unlike the last 104 weeks of sideways ranging action, , there will be several opportunities to either get it nicely right or very wrong placed in front of us by the market, and I hope to continue making good decisions during this period too. And naturally always acknowledging that I can so so easily make a mess of it, I remind you that correctly placed stops - always important - will be absolutely crucial, in every asset class, from this month onwards.

Best of luck to everybody for the coming campaign.

And ... consider this:

what would the world be like for gold to break down for eg a multi year period? And what would things globally and nationally have to be like for gold to bottom in a few months time and then rise from that low for multiple years? Big changes are coming whichever way this goes.

(edits: usual typo elimination!!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Aug 6, 2018 - 11:13am
zman
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http://charleshughsmith.blogs

https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2018/08/heres-why-rip-roaring-infl... "To quell the revolt of the many, the Powers That Be will create trillions in new money and helicopter-drop it to the masses" Another "helicopter" money guy here. If TPTB injected some money into the real economy "to quell the revolt", it would most likely be crumbs in my opinion. The main issue I have is that there's too many calling for "helicopter money" and the markets are calling for the complete opposite. What did they do in 2008 for the real economy? Absolutely NOTHING, I expect the same if we have a repeat.

Mon, Aug 6, 2018 - 11:43am
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The view from the right of the strategic value of QAnon

Vox Day talks about the value of QAnon to the right.

Whether or not QAnon is genuine is immaterial to Vox.

Vox looks at the effectiveness of QAnon and does a cost benefit analysis as eg might be done by a commanding officer upon subordinates and their missions..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSjwVJESJD0

So are you a recruit of QAnon, or an opposer of QAnon, or are you a neutral observer of what is happening on the battlefield in front of you, and always considering what you need to do next?

NB Note that Vox does not agree with Scott Adams persuasion filter of reality, and says he doesn't buy it. Sure! While he is using rhetoric himself to recruit and persuade.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Mon, Aug 6, 2018 - 7:15pm
zman
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https://www.gold-eagle.com/ar

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/verge-next-major-gold-and-silver-pric...

I recommend checking out the gold/sp500 ratio chart, we are getting close to testing the 2005 levels. At that point, most of the gold outperform relative to stocks are gone.

The gold/bond chart is also looking very weak, the next level of support is the 2006 level.

The long term US dollar chart, it appears the next move is higher and moving towards the 2001 levels of 118.

It's looking more and more that the strong PM's move in Dec. of 2015 was a giant suckers rally. The charts are pointing to a new bear market move lower.

A good bet here is going long the 30 year US bond.

Mon, Aug 6, 2018 - 11:13pm
HappyNow
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AM. That video is a nice

AM. That video is a nice deconstruction of what’s going on with the right that’s been reaching here lately. Justifying deception, untruth, etc because it will lead to the truth (as defined by who? I think they’re letting each believe it is the truth each wants to believe). This sounds exactly like the left.

First it was just free speech, it’s good to be unpolitically correct. Now it’s doing wrong ‘but’ for the right reasons. What’s next?

Has someone got a MAGA scorecard? How we doin on that? Or is that too factual and not emotional enough?

Further to your post on Civil War. Apparently it’s not enough that the right has the political lead in the USA. They won the federal election and control government at the Federal level. Despite the power of owning it all, the political victory, supporters are still spoiling for some kind of a fight, you can read it in the language. Just waiting for left to provoke enough to feel justified, or maybe a few lies (see above tactics, see also Spanish Civil War) will do instead.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Tue, Aug 7, 2018 - 8:58am (Reply to #11202)
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Why should it merely be in

Why should it merely be in the US?

The world is all connected now. So ... everywhere? .

I am just watching this and wondering how far it can go this time. We possibly haven't seen anything yet. It all depends upon how many inflections we sail through without reversal. And long cycles are very bearish on this matter. But it would still be up and down for a few years each swing as society proceeds along its path into its future.

When I post Vox, I am ambivalent about his messaging, but his analysis and strategizing is usually good prom his sides point of view. He talks about the manipulation and corralling of those in the middle, which is why he lacks popularity. Some things are not spoken about by the groups who indulge in those practices. Vox on the other hand is rather more open than the average eloquent recruiter-persuader for the two sides politics league.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Aug 7, 2018 - 9:31am (Reply to #11202)
UncleFester
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HappyNow...

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Tue, Aug 7, 2018 - 3:34pm
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Lara is going for a bounce in

Lara is going for a bounce in gold:

Gold Elliott Wave and Technical Analysis by Lara Iriarte, CMT

It would be nice if it came to be, but it's not the scenario I am expecting. We shall see.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Aug 7, 2018 - 4:05pm (Reply to #11205)
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argentus maximus wrote:...

argentus maximus wrote:
... it's not the scenario I am expecting. ...

From about 8 minutes in for the following 4 minutes she is singing something a little more like my tune.

Importantly, this can still be a 1 down, 2 up smaller 1 down, smaller 2 up, still. That extension wouldn't be nice. Expect that if the central banks still need to sell bonds and continue the deflation swing to do that.

Moving to stocks:

What to do? Well the unloading of QE stocks requires high stock markets, so if the central banks are over the weighting they desire, we can look for stock rallies, and inflationary story kite flying exercises to generate buying interest ( for them to sell into).

Just keep raising those long term stops. Setbacks from the next rally ... well such price swings could extend and accellerate. Support of the durable kind is a long way below.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Aug 7, 2018 - 4:49pm
zman
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"Moving to stocks" It appears

"Moving to stocks"

It appears the Fed's balance sheet and the US stock market have decoupled. It doesn't have to make sense, but my guess is that the US stock markets reach higher levels than most people think is likely.

One of the main problems is that tax revenue is now directly correlated with asset prices, if asset prices (bonds, stocks and real estate) drop in value, that's big trouble for tax receipts. So what does that tell us? The pros know stocks can not enter a bear market. That's why long and strong is not going away for a long time.

The nice thing about QE, share buybacks and the propping up of stocks is that it's not inflationary. It gives the perception that the economy is strong and it doesn't cause any issues. The rich get richer and life goes on.

Will the US market stay decoupled from the rest of the world's stock markets? If the US dollar remains strong and deflation remains the global theme? The answer is yes.

So where is the Dow/Gold ratio headed? Currently at 21, could this ratio head towards the 40 level again? Was 6 on the ratio in 2011 the low for this cycle? It's starting to appear on time and price action that it might be the case. Are we talking about $900 gold and 35,000 Dow? I never would have thought it, but it very well could be the case in the next few years.

Tue, Aug 7, 2018 - 9:08pm (Reply to #11204)
HappyNow
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UncleFester wrote: Did you

UncleFester wrote:

Did you mean this scorecard https://www.magapill.com/

or this one https://www.sunfishsales.com/product/trump-maga-sc-holder/

Haha UncleFester, sort of, I don’t know about score cards where you live but here they don’t allow you to just remove all the marks you don’t like and leave only the A+

Its good to see there’s more going on than the foreign affairs though, we don’t hear as much on domestic policy. Thanks much.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Wed, Aug 8, 2018 - 5:39am (Reply to #11208)
UncleFester
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HappyNow...

I'm glad you found that humorous, never can be too sure these days. "Cherry picking" data to fit a narrative is all the rage! Come to think of it, the "mainstream media" used to be the gatekeepers of that technique, but now anyone can do it thanks to the internet and social media. Now there is a push to have the tech companies censure content in order to close that Pandora's box.

Just because I'm paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get me.
Wed, Aug 8, 2018 - 7:09pm
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GV update

G-V is way up there for the coming five days.

Up 7-8th, holds on plateau, up 11-12th, some mid and some end of August stuff, but back up extreme 4th-8th Sept and continues re-peaking for the rest of Sept.

So this should be a lively week. Just for a start.

What's interesting is another repeat at the same time in September. Think of how a bolos or lariat works and how the rotation accumulated the stored power for the catapult and also temporally precedes the throw. Think about that happening in global geopolitical events.

Consider this phrase: "event nexus". In dominoes, to give you an example, the event nexus would be a hand touching the first domino. For a grenade it would be somebody pulling the pin.

Globally.

Watch it happen, or alternatively see if I've got this completely wrong. Hindsight makes things that are vague at the time a lot clearer, when we get to use it later.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price https://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Aug 10, 2018 - 12:03am (Reply to #11210)
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comment on G-V

As I have posted over on DOTS, dad is losing his battle with dementia. He has good days and bad days, tonight was a bad night.

Got a call from the hospital tonight and dad was extremely agitated and belligerent, wouldn't take his medication, they thought chatting with me would help. This behavior is uncharacteristic of him, but given the elevated G-V makes sense.

All I can say is I am grateful that AM posted the rise in G-V, it gave me perspective in chatting with dad and fortunately I was able to get him calmed down and he took his medication and let the nurses put him to bed.

I don't mind the calls , because some day I won't get them

silver66

Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light

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