The setup for the big trade

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silver66
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why we love golf Solson

It is a game to be mastered but never conquered, just like life.

silver66

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Solsson
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silver66 wrote:It is a game

silver66 wrote:

It is a game to be mastered but never conquered, just like life.

That's the poetic version, but I got a mathematical version.

The construction of the game is fractal smiley it's the Golden game designed by mother nature. I think Argentus agrees.

From my home course hole 11 a par5:

 

Driver 233yards

7-iron 144yards

PW 89yards

end of long game

Short game, missed green chip

AW 21yards

1st putt 5yards

2nd putt 2yards

3rd and last putt 1yard

​​​​​​​It's a reversed Leonardo da Pisa sequence game, cool isn't it yes

... oh a double bogey no that's not so cool.

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Very interesting chart imo,

Very interesting chart imo, we've not broken the main resistance yet:

kentucky
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AM

What do you consider to be a big trade for gold?

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argentus maximus
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Long term indicates entry at

Long term indicates entry at a long term low, reclamation of a previous bear trend in it's entirety, to a price which is approx + 2% annual increase from a previous long term high.

A full upswing from the low minus entry and exit slippage.

Naturally every time is of course expected to differ, but long term gives possibility for such a range return trade.

If this year were to be such a low, then 2011 high 1950 plus 2% annually would place the upper range edge at 1950+17% which would be 2280, plus 2% extra for every year taken after this year to get there. From eg 1100 that would represent 100% gain on spot plus possibly 4-5 years up which would be another 8-10% on spot.

Depends on the low, which may not be in yet or (possibly) was made 2 1/2 years ago, and it's timing.

If we for example next February were below my stops I would recalibrate the dimensions of the bear swing, which is to say I have both price and time stops to identify whether a low is in, or more declines likely or probable.

And I am aware that logarithmic decline of the denominator fiat FX is not built into the above.

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kentucky
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Thank You

Sounds very reasonable to me.  Not super hype.

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argentus maximus
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Ronnie Fattal on silver and

Ronnie Fattal on silver and gold:

It's still about the 1236 price level for gold, and presently gold is under it.

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Merci

I like Elliott wave when it gives you a choice of counts like he has laid out. I also like Craig's outlook re: manipulation which seems to make Elliott wave and TA look bad. But I do think Elliott wave will shine when we eventually break lose of the manipulations and Price Discovery returns. 

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It's the bees knees when

It's the bees knees when prices are trending. Not so much during consolidations. As for every approach, better with EW than without. i find it goes well with cycles, particularly the morphing kind.

I mentioned the catapult pattern above, when discussing stocks.

Here it is:

It's a Point & Figure pattern, did I mention that?

The pullback retraced prior to breakout is the key. Now have a look at SPX...

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argentus maximus
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Two recent bullish catapult

Two recent bullish catapult examples in 2 hour timescale:

This is a brief excursion down the fractal scales for me. In the larger scales I hear a certain fat lady practising her notes in the wings as she patiently awaits her turn.

To reuse that Monty Python phrase ... during the meanwhile .... we are in summer doldrums and counter trend swings can exaggerate, stops at greater distance get hit, all the usual.

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After a while you start

After a while you start seeing it everywhere!

Not because you imagine it, because it was always there all around you; but you just didn't notice it before.

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Another interesting chart,

Another interesting chart, the tricky question is, when is it time to make the shift?

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In my opinion, we could go a

In my opinion, we could go a VERY LONG time in this very low range of  commodity prices.  The amount of debt does NOT allow for higher commodity prices, we must stay in a very low/no growth and deflationary economy.  If commodity prices move higher, bonds yields would also move higher,  obviously that can NOT happen.

With that being said, the ratio could move higher as the SP 500 moves lower at a faster rate than commodity prices.  So the trade is really going to be short the SP 500 and stay away from commodities or hard assets.  

Does anyone ever notice that if we're supposed to be in a booming economy, why are commodity prices still in a massive bear market hardly off the 2015 lows?  

My bet is they're going to let the stock and real estate markets go down, and preserve the bond market.  It's really the only option,  interest rates will go negative and the ability to issue new debt will not be a problem.  All of this will put the general economy into a recession/depression for many years.   If people have cash they will be in good shape because prices will be much lower. 

Trump and his rhetoric will not make any difference at all.  There will not be any meaningful tariffs, trade deficits are NOT going lower.    There will not be any infrastructure spending.  There will not be any jobs coming back to the US.  There will not be any wage growth.  There will still be massive amounts of BOTH illegal and legal immigration.  

Trump can cry about the rising US dollar, but he will be nothing more than a spectator as the dollar hits new highs.   The Euro is still around 1.17 today,  it's so overvalued to the dollar it's just plain silly.  I could see the Euro down to .70 in a few years, where does that put the dollar index?   125 area. 

There's going to be no higher yields, no stimulus, no inflation.  The plan has already been made.  Deflate the debt away.  

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zman welcome back.  Thought

zman welcome back.  Thought for sure you’d given up on this site and left.  US dollar still king, check.

I don’t think the govt has as much control of markets as you give them....they can rig things in a short term but not a long one.

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Only 4% bulls according to

Only 4% bulls according to some sentiment indicators, A start of an interim rally now or do we have to wait until summer doldrum ends.

Or are we about to slide down into the abyss

I think if a debt deflation event is about to happen it will be short lived or the American people will stick a pitchfork in most politicians including Mr Trump.

AM linked to a video with a sell out of US treasuries from Russia. Is it a far fetched thought that they will buy gold with the money acquired? More countries to follow?

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HappyNow wrote: zman welcome

HappyNow wrote:

zman welcome back.  Thought for sure you’d given up on this site and left.  US dollar still king, check.

I don’t think the govt has as much control of markets as you give them....they can rig things in a short term but not a long one.

Thank you, it's nice to be back!     

It's not that I think the govt has the ability to directly "control the markets", I believe they have the ability to push investors into certain areas and out of other parts of the market.

Sending millions of decent paying jobs out of the US and then inviting tens of millions of immigrants into the US labor market is deflationary,  that policy pushed investors into the bond market for many decades.  Is that direct control of a market?  No, but it's a very powerful economic policy that moves a market. 

The people in power are in a corner here because of the debt monster, the options are not good regardless of the direction they chose.  I just heard Trump a few days ago at his political rally saying there's a "shortage of labor" and that he's for bringing more immigrants into the US based "on merit".   That's wonderful, I'm sure my niece with 100k in student debt will love to compete with some highly educated worker from China or India for some position in the medical field.   

In my opinion, they rig policy- which rigs in the markets.  They say one thing and ultimately do another.  

I also could be very wrong,  we could see a downturn followed by some huge stimulus program that devalues the dollar and creates real inflation.  My belief is that we didn't get here by accident,  the greed from the top is never ending and I doubt that they're going to be nice at some point.  Time will tell. 

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Solsson wrote:Only 4% bulls

Solsson wrote:

Only 4% bulls according to some sentiment indicators, A start of an interim rally now or do we have to wait until summer doldrum ends.

Or are we about to slide down into the abyss

I think if a debt deflation event is about to happen it will be short lived or the American people will stick a pitchfork in most politicians including Mr Trump.

AM linked to a video with a sell out of US treasuries from Russia. Is it a far fetched thought that they will buy gold with the money acquired? More countries to follow?

"will stick a pitchfork in most politicians including Mr Trump"

You could be correct here, but I have my doubts.  The elite have absolutely no respect for the US population at this point,  they fear nothing from them.  

At least in Greece, those citizens hit the streets and did things which I won't even mention to stop their potential enslavement.   

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Channels update

In the significant scales with one possible walk forward outcome.

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silver66
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zman

this is one of your better posts

I could conceive of Trump doing a massive stimulus right before the next presidential election, and who knows about helicopter money. Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Scheff said if they  did that, he would change his name to Goldenberg smiley

I guess the real question is are we going to get deflation or inflation??? and are we in the eye of the hurricane right now waiting for the winds to change. Is it long bonds and dividend stocks or equities in general, real estate and commodities?

That is the 64,000 question!!

Silver66

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zman
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silver66 wrote: this is one

silver66 wrote:

this is one of your better posts

I could conceive of Trump doing a massive stimulus right before the next presidential election, and who knows about helicopter money. Dave Rosenberg of Gluskin Scheff said if they  did that, he would change his name to Goldenberg smiley

I guess the real question is are we going to get deflation or inflation??? and are we in the eye of the hurricane right now waiting for the winds to change. Is it long bonds and dividend stocks or equities in general, real estate and commodities?

That is the 64,000 question!!

Silver66

"deflation or inflation???"

I think one of the best measurement tools is the Gold/Bond (30 year) ratio.  If someone wants to put up a chart, it will clearly show that deflation is winning.  We are not far from breaking the Dec. 2015 lows.   

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