I posted this in January: https://s.tradingview.com/x/GXNNct0C/
Fast forward to today and zoom in: https://www.tradingview.com/x/lmhInO0W/
Just one scenario I am considering. Keep in mind this is weekly spot$, wave 3 down could already be complete. Will watch the rest of the week to see how it plays out.
volume reversal day too
Hindsight: The Babson projection method of an impulse wave (using the R lines of the relevant prior correction) proved accurate. R3 is often the target. Price went but 2.25 pts above R3.
Foresight?: R2 has been a soft support area recently. Watch the obvious intersection of weekly lines for a low reaching the prior swing low at 2552 in Sep ES, in about 7 weeks. The 3p line is very strong. A break below would be a violation of key support.
Up 43% Tuesday. This drug could change the face of CNS diseases.
This could help mankind.
Let's be ballsy about this. Here is spot gold versus the US dollar:
I put in the long term bear trendline (descending from 2011 in blue) and also the recalibrated version of this (descending from 2011 in red) across the mid 2016 high to illustrate where the buyers and sellers come out to trade.
The medium term trends are also shown as they govern the smaller price swings.
Now here is the question: Has there yet been a serious (long term or high volume or both) retest of that descending red-blue pair showing the bear ?
If not, and we are hoping for a bull, why would such get going before the retest of the bears' powers?
And if that is the case, and a retest is going to materialize, and this should coincide with a certain time which happens to be the right hand edge of this chart, then would the green projection not be possible and something to consider seriously?
And if the blue were to be the one retested, would that involve a new low, briefly, not followed through, just to break sentiment and collect the gold sold by the lambs occupying the slaughterhouse that day? And such a low would be a little lower than the one shown in green, just under the Dec 2015 bottom.
The prices are on the chart. The last is unmarked for some reason or other, but still clearly visible.
If this proceeds, the summer 2018 gold bulls of this trading range low, are way off the mark.
Using a pitchfork approach there is a fascinating descending range bisection during 2017 which has been retested, and can form the base of a pitchfork.
I show it here, and left my crosshairs at the date the next projected low, where it meets that pick pitchfork.
More needs to be done on this, as price walks forwards, but it's a less bearish way for a four year reversal bottom pattern to be created, and it has a quite attractive fit with prices since 2015 going for it.
Basis weekly GLD:
There is also an intriguing fractal shown, which appears to have flipped into inversion. the next turn would be proximate, but different, to the low of the projection.
There is certainly a lack of interest in the gold market in all it's forms. An initial pop and drop would make one of the declines fit with the summer swoon. The stock market is much more interesting. JMHO
That long gold forecast could go wrong at any pivot. Any time during 89 months. Even now, or tomorrow it might diverge from the Big Setup forecast. But not thus far.
It has been amazing to see it stick on track all this time. It is still not yet there, but at last I am now drawing buy stops downwards above the current trading levels as it calibrates (during the next rally) before the next (hopefully downwards) swing.
The stock market. Totally scary. I have a sense which could be described as walking on a frozen lake with thin ice, and more and more people coming out onto the ice. A few look big of frame, some others are gathering in tight groups rather than spreading out. There are funny noises coming from the ice. Nobody wants to be the first to go back in to dry land.
But it's melting.
Time has arrived to sell rallies incrementally via upwards tracking stops I think. Not simply sell, but track up and be taken out high by the market. Time to rework the stops to their next optimal function.
Watch utilities. Watch income generating assets. There is a rotation in hand.
The arbitrage algos are tight, the ratio in the middle is showing very small differences. Then there is the curious matter of the discontinued FRED chart. Possibly some lifeboats are being quietly lowered out of view on the other side of the ship. Against that the central bankers do take turns spending our money to get the results they desire. A partial low grade bonds exit? What afterwards?
It's a curious thing....
kentucky wrote: There is certainly a lack of interest in the gold market in all it's forms...
There is certainly a lack of interest in the gold market in all it's forms...
Well isn't that the time to be really interested, buy low sell high. I've been excited to pick cheap miners for most of the year. Do not care about the stockmarket, that is a thing of the past I am looking forward.
Lets compare First Majestic Silver with the all mighty stockmarket since I made my move early February.
S&P500= (2760-2533)/2533=+9% (2533 the superlow from 8th Feb)
First Majestic=(10.83-6.24)/6.24=+73% (6.24 from the very same day)
Another thing is that FM has a possible bright future looking at global fundamentals, stockmarkets not so much ...
That is one solid trend. It looks like FM has put on the boots and is out on a long march, left-right left right ...
Another march in the GDX/GLD cross. I've added a H&S pattern and a simple EW count.
Sorry for the nazi parable marching thing, but everything these days are either left-losers or if you like precious metals and wants to keep the country pattern that has been forged into Europe for a millennium or two, reasonable intact, you are considered a nazi.
Big BATTLE today SWEDEN (EU) - ENGLAND (non-EU)
Good Pick. Congratulations
Silver has not benefited but good to see you are up nicely.
Tx Kentucky I actually sold all my FR+K92+Aurania a couple of weeks ago what was supposed to be a mid year high.
I re-entered some of my positions at strawberry full moon. Maybe another low is lurking in the woodwork.
We are entering summer doldrums, with low volume.
Congratulation to England, they got a strong team this year. Sweden looked tired with low energy. England fully deserved the win!
Mass Sentiment Change update:
I think today's post can be filed under the heading of "Establishment Leftist+Neocon-Media market share slide continues- Empire Strikes Back"
Their actions reveal their distress .......
On June 27, 2018 - 6:57pm in this post #11104 I said (emphasis added today):
argentus maximus wrote: ...The thing about ths is, this is not Trump supporters standing up to SJWs. It's people of all sorts. Trump talks to the right. Jordan Peterson talks to the left and calls them to move centrewards ... It's still well below the water level and invisible to normies, but the activists, the far right and the far left are acutely aware that they are coming increasingly under attack by the middle. A middle that ... Far left-ism has reached its social boundary, and is becoming frayed at the edges like a cabbage leaf being nibbled by thousands of caterpillars. The activists, the controllers of the activists, will need to go Spinal Tap and "Turn it up to eleven". We get to see where the reinforcements come from if we pay attention at this point.....
It's still well below the water level and invisible to normies, but the activists, the far right and the far left are acutely aware that they are coming increasingly under attack by the middle. A middle that ...
Far left-ism has reached its social boundary, and is becoming frayed at the edges like a cabbage leaf being nibbled by thousands of caterpillars.
The activists, the controllers of the activists, will need to go Spinal Tap and "Turn it up to eleven". We get to see where the reinforcements come from if we pay attention at this point.....
The above post is an example of kicking the matter up to a higher level and "turning it up to eleven".
Escalation under dire need by the political class establishment is under way. We will see more and more will be thus revealed. In this case Google reveals as mainstream media partner rather than competitor and disruptor of media. Well I expect most of Setup readers had that figured, but now it's right there stage centre for the normies to see and think about.
Meanwhile, as the political class (right and left) conspire to screw the masses, the conspiracy from above them both to pull their teeth moves forwards.
Let me cast the German and French gyrations within their EU in a different light to the way it is usually discussed: If you happened to be, say, an oligarch: would it be better to negotiate with a regional power institution - the powerful committee members of which you could bribe, corrupt and win over - or to deal with smaller but powerful national governments which require the same treatment but multiple streams of it and with multiple agreements?
On the other hand: if you happened to be, say, a member of the political class eg a prime minister or his/her secretary - and you are negotiating with an oligarch for eg a supply of oil or natgas or to sell your stuff to - would you prefer to be a national representative or a part of a bigger regional representative government?
Both want big government. Both want power as distant from the people, the consenting origin of that power, as possible.
But oppositional politics, the binary team league of political parties the people live within, is a national game, and impedes the drawing of power to higher levels. Having taken power from the people (by the party hacks) it is now the political class' turn to lose power to the selected few pre-oligarchs among their numbers who were always working for themselves. The readers of Foreign Policy don't like it, but they blame the wrong culprits, as did the people at street level before them.
It is merely one way to look at it. There are others and they all have some value for interpretation of the dynamic forces in inter-play.
So .... getting back to the gamergate, comics=-gate, starwars-gate dynamic. Now we have Google using Youtube openly to support the media. It's time for opposition to YT to bloom and grow exponentially, hopefully not too late to matter.
And - for those who appreciate that numbers matter and are interested in some of the decent numerology sources on YT - Martyleeds33 channel is dead, (yes - just now by coincidence ...) move your sub to Marty Leeds Live instead. He posted on WHalbig recently with documentary evidence that some would prefer remain unknown, (you might want to see where the kiddies milk and food was delivered that day and how many addresses their place of learning had for that month) and also has tugged at a mediterranean perception curtain that prefers to remain firmly drawn closed. So it won't be long for that new channel either I think. Get Gab. Get Bitchute. Get Steemit. If you haven't got time, with info saturation from YT, possibly declutter by disconnecting some of your less relevant YT subs to make brainspace and time for a better source.
But you know I'll cover the key parts here, and I'll find ways to make the trackers not get it when they scan for their trigger subject matter content. But it means I occasionally won't talk straight and linear or concise as those in a hurry might prefer. And you might need to look in a chart or read yesterday/tomorrow to find the key to what seems incomprehensible in a given post today.
I presume my intended purpose for doing it this way since day one in 2012 is now apparent to all.
For those US-side readers, I hope you had a nice long weekend.
Chart updates shortly.
to get the assets into the right hands ?? https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-16/forget-football-its-market-tha... Get the masses to sell before a rise in the market?? or maybe time to get out Silver66
Silver66 Rage against the dying of the light
Ronnie Fattal moves towards the possibility of this being an interim rally within a larger dimension downswing.
Which fits the Setup main forecast quite well.
Spot Au, weekly basis. Looks like price sliced cleanly through the 1250 fibo in this wave 3 down. Here's the updated chart.
With all the anti-russo propaganda swirling around the retail media, and since I attempt to look a little deeper for causes and effect of events, here is another little piece of the jigsaw:
And so much of what happens suddenly becomes a lot clearer.
Massive volume in NUGT yesterday, marking an interim low? I just couldn't resist to buy some bombed out explorers. I am back at 80% allocation. Lets see if the 4th wave up is about to get going.
Some miners holding up very well, others not so much.