argentus maximus wrote: By the way. If you look at that outrageous upwards spike during the South Sea Bubble, the digi-FX charts make more sense in that they are not unprecedented. The central bankers have to put some of that freshly printed fiat into inflation hedges, and they know when the rug will be pulled, so can entertain holding assets with thin liquidity due to being able to plan on getting out before the rush.
By the way. If you look at that outrageous upwards spike during the South Sea Bubble, the digi-FX charts make more sense in that they are not unprecedented. The central bankers have to put some of that freshly printed fiat into inflation hedges, and they know when the rug will be pulled, so can entertain holding assets with thin liquidity due to being able to plan on getting out before the rush.
Time for editing ran out.
Silver_Surfer wrote: Alternative scenario: ....
It's a funny thing, that for all the analogs we ok at, the key factor always seems to boil down to which way the next inflection breaks !
That is of course a value characteristic of technical analysis. It may give multiple interpretations leading some right and others wrong. But if you look at charts with trend lines on it that you drew, and your asset is the wrong side of those lines, it does make staying in that bad trade a more obvious error!
This morning I browsed through some of the earlier AM Blog posts. I am aware that some of the images used were in photobucket, and these are now shown as a ransomware "pay to upgrade" message instead of the original photos and charts posted by myself. So gradually I am uploading the same or freshly made copies (can't get it off PB) and repairing these damaged blog posts. It is tedious but needs doing.
Anyway, today I recreated the chart from this blog: Interesting People: Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian
This one goes to the heart of your post, and it also goes to a reply to all those recent internet posts everywhere noting that the bond market bull market is over and a new bear in bonds has begun.
The AM blog telling readers the bonds are approaching a red light preceded this week's flurry of bond observations by quite a bit. I posted it September 28, 2014 and before the yields bottom.
And the chart for that article that I redid today is still very apt. Here it is:
To my fellow superhero GL, who has migrated to DOTS but was still posting here when I first arrived. For the interesting peeks into the esoteric.
Thank you. Glad you found something interesting. I still read and enjoy AM and take all his reading suggestions to heart. It's a pity that some here take the free wisdom for granted.
However, I've made a rare decision among gold bugs and I moved alot of my leverage in the metals into the stock market and applying these principles in a different market. Obviously, discussing the DOW on a metals forum is not appropriate and there is little interest by others and this is not what this forum is about. While I am still long term bullish gold, I've been watching socrates and the major market and it's been on the money the last 6 months. Thats 40 grand I wouldn't have had just watching gold.
Yes, I am aware of the possibility that we could have a correction but that's not certain. And I won't complain if there is a re-entry opportunity at a lower level. Then I might become more of a heretic around here and transfer more depending on where we are at in the metals. So it makes no sense to contribute when my $ focus is in a different space. I even made some money back on large losses in silver. I can feel satisfied about that.
I've not seen an argument that says money won't be made in both the metals and the market in the next few years.
Randomnity and recalibrating is important in investing.
I did not get filled last week, as the Au price did not pull back to my buy level. So I wait. I have noticed some minor bullish signals from Ag recently in the chart below. A double bottom or slightly higher one in December and an inverted H&S looks to be forming.
haha Silver_Surfer I didn't know that Scottie Pippin was playing with shirt 33, epic...
A fantastic post by AM, I knew it was meant to be that I showed up here with a Swedish centralbanker got his head chopped off. Karl Dozen was the warrior king. He went out for war just fifteen years old. Ruining the country. but he is a hero for neo-nazis.
My trade sure as hell feels uncomfortable, got stopped out with a 10% loss, but I am stubborn, so I will re-emter later.
Isn't the dollar in a Bull?, time to bounce imo.
My point is, we are not there yet, another 10months before the breakdown in the dollar?
Goldcorp was up 7.25% today (at one point, 8%). The 2017 Financials are not due till Feb 14th. Hopefully, they will provide a further boost; we'll see. Today's move may have been due to a confirmation that Q4 production targets were met.
Nice to know that a miner can generate such a move up in a day.
It's still over 70% down from its highs, but as a HUI shareholder, I am starting to take interest again in the share price. :-)
The large corrections in the bull mkt came after prices exceeded the monthly parallels. We're there again, at WL#1. Today I read at Zero Hedge that Morgan Stanley reco's buying puts...as call and put positions go to historic (and opposite) extremes.
Are we near the end of the 5th wave? Could price reach WL#2 (not drawn) on a price surge to Dow 30K+?
Here are the support and resistance lines I am watching in spot Au. I suspect price will fall below 1330. It may bounce at the 1.33 line...but then again I have been wrong for over a month.
Jim Rickards, in Road to Ruin (published in 2016), said that because gold and TIPS have been rising while the 10 year Treasury is also rising, the forces of inflation and deflation are both strong in the mindset of the world's wealthy.
Well, here we are about 18 months later. Gold has continued higher while the US 10 year bull market topped months ago and appears likely to maintain or accelerate its downtrend over the coming months in a big C or 3 wave. Since the B wave took a very long time to form, the C wave will either be prolonged in time or sharply downward in price.
This would imply that the world's wealthy are discounting deflation and concerns have shifted toward inflation (or monetary disorder) since Trump's win. At least we can say the US Treasuries are indeed falling out of favor as is the "stock" of the USA. Gold is gaining favor.
US 10 year monthly
Something I warned about in precious metals happened in stocks at end of year.
Check out that futures short squeeze covering during the final weeks of December:
Trader Joe's chart shows futures trading at a discount (backwardation) to the S&P500 cash for the last two years. But in December the futures surged past the cash value into premium (contango) over the cash equivalent.
He remarked that tax may be behind this, but rising interest rates would be shifting the contango-backwardation balance or neutral point from the recent past balance levels.
When this kind of change catches hedging or other big players unawares, and the change persists, big problems can arise for those who get caught out. Remember what happened to Metallgesellschaft and the 1.3 billion dollars that disappeared? If not, here's a link:
Or try this one for less technical language: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metallgesellschaft
The amount of SJW "GirlPower" inserted into the recent Disney Star Wars movie has inspired a critic with film editing skills to produce a review called " The Last Jedi: De-Feminized Fanedit (aka The Chauvinist Cut)".
Now sane people, readers here will instantly recognize this for what it is: not a "chauvinist cut" (well, it is as a byproduct) but actually an elaborate troll of the social justice extreme feminists the kowtowing to whom resulted in a Star Wars movie where neophytes with little or no training in use of the force suddenly and inexplicably perform amazing feats impossible to lifelong students of the force in earlier episodes of the same franchise. These are described critically as a "Mary Sue" character, (can be a Gary Sue if it's a male with superpowers and no background in the plot to explain them). ie revisionary characters in a badly written script.
So here is why Gamergate matters: The gamers take their technical skills and use them to ridicule SJWs who infiltrate their number but have no skills of their own worthy of comparison. When told they are not PC are male or while and should shut up, they don't. They parody the SJWs instead making them into the no sense of humour clowns they really are as these killjoys try to browbeat everyone around them into submission.
Let me mention what social cycle is going on here: modern drinkers are standing up to modern suffragettes who want alcohol banned. Can you see the dynamic now? Think 1930s Chicago and alcohol crime. Banning things that are mainstream is just wrong and people will support criminals who buck the trend and make what has become illegal available again.
So have fun. he goes on a bit, the best is in the first half:
Here's a short rundown of changes - plenty of triggers to troll the SJWs
(spoilers! full list in description.txt):
- No whiny/reluctant/murderous psycho Luke.
- NO HALDO! She simply doesn't exist. Her whole subplot doesn't exist. The Kamikaze is carried out by Poe. ( = Poe dies.)
- Leia never scolds, questions nor demotes Poe.
- Lea dies. Kylo kills her.
- Kylo is more badass and much less conflicted and volatile.
- Kylo takes on more of Snoke's guards, Rey struggles with a single one.
- No bomber heroism by china girl in the beginning.
- No Canto Bight.
- No superpowered Rey.
- Luke is not a semi-force-ghost and is smashed by the first laser cannon shot. (sorry, I just had to!)
- Phasma is finished after the first blow by Finn. (Women are naturally weaker than men, she isn't force-sensitive, and we know nothing about any exo-skeleton in her suit)
- Asian chick speaks less, doesn't bully Finn, Finn doesn't try to escape, she is never formally introduced. She is just there and occasionally smiles at Finn or screams "Finn!". She has no sister. Serves her right for all the heinous stuff she did.
- Lots of little cuts reducing the number of female facial shots. Too many to count. (Pun intended.)
- Quite a few scenes rearranged so that the flow of the shortened movie is still somewhat coherent.
From "The Daily Caller": >>>
BuzzFeed editor Miriam Elder proposed banning men from the next Star Wars episode in response to the edit. .... The Last Jedi’s own director, Rian Johnson, laughed at the edit. It was one of the few sane responses buried within an avalanche of outrage. ... Over on Twitter, Dragon Age writer David Gaider complained that the edit made him physically sick.<<<
From FastCompany's Joe berkowitz: >>>... The most telling part of this foolhardy, childish, and deeply misguided endeavor is that what I am dubbing “the James Damore cut” of the longest Star Wars movie to date .....<<<
Pedestriandottv's Ben McLeah: >>> ... It is utterly tragic that MRAs aren’t given the respect they deserve. It’s truly galling that just because their entire worldview was formed around a profound sense of entitlement .... no one takes them seriously. It’s heartbreaking to think that people dismiss them out of hand just because – instead of addressing actual issues like the rates of suicide and depression among men – they focus on dumb shit like editing out all the parts of The Last Jedi that aren’t centred around men. <<<,
Well Mr McLeah, in answer to your open statement and embedded question: I think they have thought about suicides and depression among men under a pretend-it's-equal-but-discriminate-against-majorities SJW society and I think they are doing something positive about it - provoking PC social change supporting media people like you, and making you look like idiots!
I think the maker of this fanedit version hit his or her mark pretty well indeed! I am sure that most normal women won't feel insulted (by this troll version) to the degree that they must move from centre towards the looney left SJW side. The SJWs on the other hand, I hope they are triggered so much that they do lots more revelation of the predatory mindset that lurks under their progressive mask, by publicly freaking out even more than they have done to date.
Better not link it here on TFMR, the owner has enough issues without adding SJW reaction to his daily joblist, but a little searching in a www bay known for pirate vessels might locate hidden treasure, if that's what you want.
Do you like seeing the occasional social commentary post here at Setup?
One way to look at it is these are off topic. But In tracking social mood change, which sentiment rides upon like a horse, there could be a benefit.
I have put them here and not in the AM Golden Quarter Blog as separate article-essays because they seem to me to be a tad short or basic compared with the material I would rather produce specially for the blog.
Please reply and give some guidance as to whether you wish to see more posts along the lines of the above here in the future or not. We won't "lose" market content posts to make space for them. It's additional material, or not. AM
Logged in just to tell you I personally enjoy the social commentaries. It provides context. Raw numbers (financial data) with context is much more valuable IMO. I think the backlash from the SJW is just beginning. They are the loudest minority at the time, but they are a minority...a modern 'squeeky wheel gets the grease' movement. It looks like some parts of the world are preparing to push back like Sweden, Poland, Hungary...in addition to what has already occurred (Brexit, Trump, etc). I suspect merit-based immigration policies will catch on. Look out for key words like merit, meritocracy, transformational, high caliber, the best...in the near future. Also, see if people start to question the MSM in their countries. Does it really add any value to society? Are the personalities really worth what they are paid? Isn't social media doing to the MSM what Napster did the music industry? Are the status quo, self-anointed neo-liberal media elites completely out of touch with the rest of the population?
As for GV context...I don't know whether the "New Middle East" is still moving forward at this time. Turkey will not give up any land for Kurdistan. She is a member of NATO, so I can't imagine the discussions behind closed doors. House of Saud is in clean-up corruption mode, so it has internal issues. And Trump just stopped paying Pakistan. Does that mean Oded Yinon is on hold too? Ultimately the West wants more influence over the "land island" known as Central Asia. Do they have a weaker hand now that the New Middle East has faltered? If so, I suspect we might see a new Central Asian trading bloc form soon. Something Russia has been pushing for.
Just food for thought.
Probably massive moves on by every wannabee top sovereign right now to gain (greater) control of India ...
I did a G-V long range scan .... no attempt to locate your average crisis moments like, well you know by now, but more a look at possibility of the kind of super high G-V plateau, during which massive global projects get started. Formative events that have lasting effects, and ordinary peaks afterwards have dramatic importance as a consequence. I take it you know what events I am not mentioning as examples.
Came up with a couple of candidates, to be verified later naturally. One stands out a lot.
Q2 2019 ......
A good way away from now, but REALLY VERY BIG. And so much will change between now and then.
And we are on a G-V peak today also, one I mentioned a week or two ago. What will it bring? Where will price be relative to the levels after the close? Let price wave to us and just watch.
@UncleFester: If you'd be so good as to contact me directly, there is something I'd like to talk about off the open forum. My signature has my email for the moment.
I'll PM you later this evening.
By the way, do you have December Au move as a completed 5/5? If so, this January action looks eerily similar to last August. If memory serves, you had that bull run labeled as an extended wave 5. If that happens again, price could break through last years highs and reach toward 1420.
The December low at 1240 doesn't 'feel' like that late 2017 early 2018 pivot you were looking for. But what about a run to 1420-1470 by mid-February?
This has been bothering me. (Comments welcome, please. Some of my information may be wrong.)
Glen Neely (whose work I respect) has said that a third wave in an impulse wave should not trade under the 0-2 line. I think he considers this a rule vs. a guideline.
In gold, this rule would invalidate a weekly chart 1-2, 1-2 count because the recent Dec low penetrated the 0-2 line of the lesser degree count (see chart).
If he's right, price can't be in a third wave of an impulse wave. So it's something else.
(I put two choices for w.1 tops because I think those are (albeit faint) possibilities depending on how one counts corrective waves.)
My best guess is that gold made its major low in Dec 2015, at the point of onset of the extended fifth wave within its parabolic rise to the all time high made Sep 2011. See Elliott Wave Principle, page 29.
Since the July 2016 top, price has been in a corrective mode with months yet to go, probably. If this is correct, it would seem to be very good news for stackers as lower prices lie ahead (assuming physical is available!). I believe at this point that the coming true wave 2 bottom will be an extraordinary and last chance to buy low before the start of a massive rally to new all time highs. Using the 90% minimum correction of w.a for w.c of 2 (for a possible flat), the nearest futures price should reach 1150 or lower (and probably triple from there in dollar terms to 3450 or higher).
In this piece Mickey Fulp makes the case that the Plat-Pall ratio has reached half century range edge. That makes it time to watch this carefully from this stage onwards.
I think he's right. Maybe a tad early but it justifies a good amount of research. (which I will do)
Yamana - the 2o17 call:
I posted here about Yamana last year from about middle of the year, and also in RNP from about March onwards.
Here is a chart which was posted in Setup:
The chart file is dated 30 June.
So how did it work out?
Here is an update, with a couple of possibly interesting future times marked:
We have a breakout on weekly scale. It got to the February 2017 trading range high before being stopped. It is presently just under that price level in a position where raising of stops to enclose profits not taken might be a good idea.
Gold bullion has done a little better over the period, indicating the time for stocks is arriving but not proven to have arrived, since AUY is (in my way of thinking) a mid tier producer. It's still individual plays rather than across the board.
Here's gold for comparison, in weekly, with some price levels I am watching marked: