The setup for the big trade

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Silver_Surfer
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Solsson wrote: Bitcoin

Solsson wrote:

Bitcoin collapse?
Just as a sidenote, I think the stories about Uncle Scrooge and King Midas is false in order to try to keep the sheeple away from the real stuff.

Reports of Bitcoins demise have been greatly exaggerated. wink Looking at the price action of the past 24 hours... I believe we're going higher.surprise Critical support held, in BTC and especially in the market cap of all crypto.

Looking at the way the market has been going up on low volume, abysmally low volume if you subtract the wash trades, I've come to suspect... that there might be very limited supply. Shaking out current holders looks nearly impossible to me. They're religious about this asset. Everybody's used to 40% drops and shrugs them of as if it's nothing. Only thing you can do to get a hold of people's bitcoin is create a load of shitcoins and do pump n dump schemes with them, and create futures that deliver exposure to the price changes in bitcoin.

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argentus maximus
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If futures market shorts (are

If futures market shorts (are the insiders) and are unable to dump hard enough to break BTC down, and it rises against them, then that will be a modern day replay of the Hunt Bros in silver. Remember what Volcker did, and more recently Draghi said "Whatever it takes". They will change the law, change the rules, tinker with compelled margins for fully paid up holdings at midnight, print whatever fiat it takes, use military resources, activate punitive revenue legislation, and the one that is really easy for them to do - regulate the bejazus out of BTC holders and exchanges.

Summary: if you're long BTC better hope that the shorts in a rising bear squeeze are deep pocketed amateurs the cabal is happy to see burn.

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Market depth as a key dynamic

When Bitcoin first hit $9k, I wrote upthread how it had surpassed the nominal market cap of the silver market. It since doubled from there, and hit $360 billion or so. 

So a reminder to self, these were not like for like comparisons. I subsequently learned that regardless its then $360bn cap, that only $6bn had ever been invested into bitcoin. The market cap was based on all bitcoin valued at the extremely  marginal current trade. I guess, this is the equivalent of the real estate market, and stocks, where valuations are made entirely at the margins, though likely more heavily traded in those latter markets. How heavy does trade have to be, to constitute a proper market? 

I do not have info as to how marginal the bitcoin valuations are, compared to real estate and stocks, but a commodity, like silver, is not based on marginal trade, but the market cap is traded in its entirety through the year; possibly several times over when futures are taken into account. Gold is more mysterious, with a different stock to flow ratio, but seemingly still very heavily traded.

That's quite a difference in the basis for valuation between various assets; volume. I'm not sure that this is a surprise to any of us per se, but it is a good reminder of how transitory, current valuations can be. I recall in the past, Argentus saying to ignore the PM price during quiet periods when the large players were absent; and that price without volume is to be treated with a pinch of salt. 

It could be that real volume buying in Bitcoin is yet to come, and the fireworks too. But likewise, absent that volume, only a fraction of current holders, will ever be able to cash out. And few are inclined to cash out, in a rising market. 

I finish with a quote (as recalled) from an ex ZeroHedge contributor called Cheeky Bastard.  In response to popular enthusiasm that public buying could break the banks control over PM prices, he retorted that this displayed total ignorance as to the depth and scale of those markets, and that public activity in that space, was an epic irrelevance. If true, worth bearing in mind; it cuts both ways. 

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argentus maximus wrote: If

argentus maximus wrote:

If futures market shorts (are the insiders) and are unable to dump hard enough to break BTC down, and it rises against them, then that will be a modern day replay of the Hunt Bros in silver. Remember what Volcker did, and more recently Draghi said "Whatever it takes". They will change the law, change the rules, tinker with compelled margins for fully paid up holdings at midnight, print whatever fiat it takes, use military resources, activate punitive revenue legislation, and the one that is really easy for them to do - regulate the bejazus out of BTC holders and exchanges.

Summary: if you're long BTC better hope that the shorts in a rising bear squeeze are deep pocketed amateurs the cabal is happy to see burn.

I consider it unlikely that the (whole) cabal would be net short BTC. What we see so far is that authorities, at least in the US, haven't shown any real commitment to banning or overly regulating BTC. In fact, the magic internet money got added to Bloomberg terminals in 2014, to unicode in 2015, exchanges got banking licenses, an ETF was approved, and futures started trading in 2017. This could be a sign that whoever is holding BTC, has enough influence to not get the project killed.

Of course "the cabal" is not always monolithical entity. For the largest part of any civilizational cycle it might be (to a degree), but at the inflection point, where the unwashed masses cannot be taxed more heavily, the different factions of a socio-political-economic elite will have to take-on each other. Logically this will impact many axis. Tech vs bankers, west vs sino-soviet, consumers vs resource economies, etc. (all of this is seeing the system(s) at their current levels of socio-economic complexity)

The reason I mentioned the futures is that it makes people buy and sell "exposure to bitcoin price" instead of "bitcoin". It may allow the parts of the cabal that were cut out at first to buy actual Bitcoin at lower prices than otherwise would be the case. That said, I'm not an expert on the effect that future markets have on spot prices so I might be totally off here. Scenario B would be that they have to run it up to unsustainable highs so that it can be massaged down over time, similar to what has been done with gold, as described by "another" commentator.

If the pro-BTC factions still have whatever they mined/acquired in the beginning stages (Satoshi alone seems to hold about 1 mln BTC at least), the rest of the cabal would be screwed, and forced to move with the development at some point. That said, some countries seem to be less comfortable with BTC, China for example, or the Franco-German axis. (Hints with regards to who's in, and who's out?)

Looking at the US internal politics, it is interesting that Trump's "wizards", guys like Cernovich, Seaman, Posobiec, and Hotep Jesus are nearly all shilling crypto. With those hints, do you think that Trump'll give Merkel & Macron what they want? Continuing on that note, on the last page I mentioned a book from James Dale Davidson & William Rees-Mogg as being possibly the first attempt at introducing crypto to the public consciousness. That name Rees-Mogg sounds familiar...

 

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Byzantium wrote:When Bitcoin

Byzantium wrote:

When Bitcoin first hit $9k, I wrote upthread how it had surpassed the nominal market cap of the silver market. It since doubled from there, and hit $360 billion or so. 

So a reminder to self, these were not like for like comparisons. I subsequently learned that regardless its then $360bn cap, that only $6bn had ever been invested into bitcoin. The market cap was based on all bitcoin valued at the extremely  marginal current trade. I guess, this is the equivalent of the real estate market, and stocks, where valuations are made entirely at the margins, though likely more heavily traded in those latter markets. How heavy does trade have to be, to constitute a proper market? 

I do not have info as to how marginal the bitcoin valuations are, compared to real estate and stocks, but a commodity, like silver, is not based on marginal trade, but the market cap is traded in its entirety through the year; possibly several times over when futures are taken into account. Gold is more mysterious, with a different stock to flow ratio, but seemingly still very heavily traded.

That's quite a difference in the basis for valuation between various assets; volume. I'm not sure that this is a surprise to any of us per se, but it is a good reminder of how transitory, current valuations can be. I recall in the past, Argentus saying to ignore the PM price during quiet periods when the large players were absent; and that price without volume is to be treated with a pinch of salt. 

It could be that real volume buying in Bitcoin is yet to come, and the fireworks too. But likewise, absent that volume, only a fraction of current holders, will ever be able to cash out. And few are inclined to cash out, in a rising market. 

I finish with a quote (as recalled) from an ex ZeroHedge contributor called Cheeky Bastard.  In response to popular enthusiasm that public buying could break the banks control over PM prices, he retorted that this displayed total ignorance as to the depth and scale of those markets, and that public activity in that space, was an epic irrelevance. If true, worth bearing in mind; it cuts both ways. 

So with the exclusion of (possibly) Gold, all commodities clearly have way higher volumes relative to the stock? Could it be that the stock to flow ratio is the big difference between "money" and "commodity"? Gresham's law at work.

AM's advice to ignore periods of weak volume definitely sounds like sound advice... for established asset classes (gold). I'm unsure whether I would apply this heuristic with an asset class that is new and not readily accessible to institutional trading. Personally I compare btc trading volume with past btc trading volume, not with the institutional (currency)markets. Seeing volume high during the dumps, and low on the green bars is something that gives me confidence that we're going even higher.

The finishing quote is very interesting, especially with regards to depth and scale, could it be that BTC's far smaller depth and scale, might make it "successful" where gold wasn't?

It is definitely true that the exit door is quite small in case significant holder want to exit, but isn't that always the case with a high stock to flow ratio? Isn't that always the case with "real" money?
 

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Silver_Surfer wrote: Reports

Silver_Surfer wrote:

Reports of Bitcoins demise have been greatly exaggerated.  

Yes every collapse has a B wave, BTC is probably going up from here for a while at least before heading down again. I would not touch BTC with a ten inch pole though. It's slow, high on energy and it's backed by nothing. 

Byzantium wrote:

It could be that real volume buying in Bitcoin is yet to come, and the fireworks too.

So exceeding the tulip bubble isn't enough, btc is now the biggest bubble in human history and yet the bubble is growing even bigger ... 

Argentus so you do think the Earth is flat? I guess I have to ask Mr Fugelsang (birdsong) about it.

NASA sure as hell spent many dollars to prove the Earth is a sphere. That take away isn't easy to fake even if they spent billions on CGI.

It's nicer to think that mother Earth got some curves to be honest.

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You could very well be right

You could very well be right (with regards to B wave), I'm not that enamoured by today's price action either. #WeWatch

With regards to Bitcoin being high on energy; how does this compare to the gold mining sector?

Backed by nothing? What is backing gold? Isn't all value subjective in the end?

For good measure: I'm not advising anyone to buy here. Deciding what to do at this price level if you're not owning BTC is far above my pay grade. I accumulated at the levels I did, to avoid that choice. Most likely it is far overbought and it is better to wait for better prices. If you're already holding however, reasons to sell are not that apparent to me... yet.

 

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Solsson wrote: So exceeding

Solsson wrote:

So exceeding the tulip bubble isn't enough, btc is now the biggest bubble in human history and yet the bubble is growing even bigger ...

To some BTC is the bubble. To some it is the pin. #WeWatch

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hmmm interesting, never

hmmm interesting, never thought about it this way ...

That's why the South Korean flag looks like this:

it explains the rotation of the firmament, but how do the flatters explain eclipses?

Then we have the epic Mr Red&Blue, or Kal-El. Kall is cold in Swedish, it's cold at night. El the old Hebrew God El, the El-ectric or Eluminated one.
 

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This thread often looks at

This thread often looks at media in unconventional ways. I like to measure "media volume" or "newsflow" as if the subject matter of "media" is secondary in some way, compared to the subject pressure/force/persuasion. And it can be.

I look - to some degree - at information reaching out towards me. My ego being touched by projected egos elsewhere. This occurs so that my ego can be converted, absorbed, converted and employed, lets say enslaved, by those other big egos "out there in the world".

You see, if buying or selling is all we can do, how come MORE THAN 50% of people fail at trading?  Allow for commission costs? ok I agree with that, but it doesn't account for the difference. Something else is going on you see.

And I describe that something else, those something elses, here regularly. It takes unconventional writing to do this, and usually I try to create a situation whereby readers will learn a few things, then look at the world a little differently, and suddenly see or realize something that wes invisible to them prior to that moment.  Because it takes skill to do some things and until you get the skill you can't see what you're doing wrong.

Which is why I sometimes mention books like eg  Zen in The Art of Archery - a short book by Herrigal - and similar, which appear to be nothing to do with the value of gold.

So in that light ... introduction over .... we look at the ship of controlled media making a turn due to having projected a story that is wrong for 18 years, and even the dumbest are beginning to move away from its hypnotic power. Something had to be done. On climate warming, which is of course merely one branch of the tree. A decision was made behind a curtain. The subsequent changes caused by that decision are fnow lowing into view if we look to see them.

So here's the content of a post I made in the DOTS thread earlier, without the preamble above.

Media change .... why?

This commentator notices the use of specific language and keywords in media as it makes a 180 degree turn on climate warm-ism to cool-ism.

1.jpg

The particular story is interesting naturally. One piece of information about reality and how it's ... described. But watch how it's done. That is likely to be a more universal process, applicable elsewhere and possibly also on small timescales too.

Study how they reverse and reposition. What processes must be done to accomplish it without loss of face ,, leadership and power over the crowd or media consumers.

Later on, when they or someone else's projected ego does it to you, you might notice the signature, even though your ego could be fixated on the hook within the matter.

And you may see that investment a little differently then. And value it differently. And buy it lower and sell it higher because the clarity with which you see some things has improved.

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Interesting conflict between

Potentially interesting relationship between predictive programming through algorithms as described by Ice Age Farmer video, and predictive linguistics algorithms such as used by Cliff High. Do they impose a reinforcing feedback on each other?

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For sure there are other

For sure there are other linguistic algos scanning retail internet, as well as professional internet. Even if there were not, experienced investors have "sniffed out" sentiment forever.

If a revolution were building up, a political war type revolution, wouldn't small rebellious episodes increase and become more frequent beforehand? So if that idea is acceptable, here's a question: what amount of anti establishment graffiti on lampposts, walls, bridges etc would be required to forecast a revolution breaking out?

Scanning internet is exactly the same. before a bear move ends the number of bulls will gradually increase "below the waterline and out of sight", and then they will spring into action at some time when bears are overextended. That would be buying into a spike low for example.

So erewenguy I agree with your point.

Here is a counterpoint, not in disagreement, rather in agreement with my +1: Momentum divergence quantifies the same thing as linguistics quantifies when we confine our attention to a single asset.

But for a big thing like reversal of fake climate scientific claims made over two decades, without losing control of peoples' trust in the process, into making new fake claims that suit reality more acceptably while still serving the masters, even linguistic sampling, unless by very advanced AI systems, could be inadequate for purpose.

Just watching the social communications behemoth slow down and turn without running aground is what I'm (figuratively) doing. I'm curious can they achieve it.

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I sold out 30% of my

I sold out 30% of my portfolio yesterday, nice to have some dry powder in the coffin.

If geopolitical violence is marker for a turn in gold markets, we got a change yesterday. Another gang-rape in Malmö (4th in a month) and a couple of hours later the blew up a police car … Sweden R.I.P, welcome to Swedistan angry

Sorry to bother you with Swedish problems but it might be interesting to follow for other western countries. I got this link from an American, never heard of Bilyana before nor Charles:

Look at the faces of the Americans when Bilyana describes the second latest gang-rape. Sorry for the dark post but this is really dark times. Swedish common people are all boiling of anger towards the politicians.

Like GL said in dots, be a bamboo. Maybe this is a game being played by the dark forces of society I don't know. I am disgusted either way! 

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... and 23.6 years prior to

... and 23.6 years prior to 2018, (1995) Sweden joined the EU .....

Wait and watch. That social turn, or breakdown, is coming too. Look:

That is within 0.48% of a multiple Fib. - an extreme level in my estimation.



Curious about this. Is "It will continue to get worse because nobody is doing anything to stop the crazy policies" about to reach peak?  People wake up when the pain level gets high enough, though that is always pitifully late. Will Sweden and gold bottom together. Buy both Sweden and gold during 2018? That would suggest a long term turn in the fortunes of the EU's neo communist parties (self described as social democrats naturally).

How does one bet financially against an ideology reaching an extreme on an unknown scale? The armaments expenditure required to rectify the situation possibly. The inflation caused by printing and paying to repair the damage and restore industry. Funeral parlours to bury the dead, or legal firms who gain from the subsequent lawsuit accumulation being contained at the moment by censorship?

Change comes when ordinary people stop doing nothing and form groups to oppose the existing groups running away with their stuff. You can bet on it or participate in it or both.

Maybe bet on the number of Swedish police and army members ....

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I like Macleod

for a fundamental, credit-cycle-based view regarding timing of the next global credit-crisis phase.  Given Macleod's perspective, should I wish to purchase more gold, it will probably have to be done by later 2018.  Should tptb in concert with bullion banks pressure gold lower in 2018, that would be the key opportunity.  If Macleod has it right.  Meanwhile, I'm sitting on my hands, and building up my reserves.

Balangp's YouTube videos have been a good learning source for me of late.  His analysis of a saver's portfolio is particularly worthwhile (the ratio of gold to other assets), and its performance under different scenarios.  At the moment I am in cash (T-bills) and gold.  I am considering short-term US Treasury notes as a balance (held to maturity).

I was holding a small portfolio of junior miners and explorers, but found I didn't have the time or energy to commit to its management.  So I sold it all near the recent bottom!  It will be much easier for me to just buy GDXJ and/or GDX if I wish exposure to the mining sector (I do think we will see an astounding bull market in both ETFs over the next 10 years).  I have instead put more energy and attention to my work/business, and it's paying off very well.

Happy New Year to Setup readers.  May we all enjoy a safe and prosperous 2018.  Thank you, Argentus, for keeping the blog going.

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I wish all Setup readers

I wish all Setup readers A Happier New Year in 2018 smiley It's going to be a very interesting year for sure!

Ronnie Fattal's latest:

From Hills Street Blues, be careful out there ...

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Climate change

Take a look back in time, back to the 1970's.  The alarmist media was clamoring about global cooling.  They even suggested that governments should spread black soot at the poles to warm them.  By the 1990's it was global warming.  Now it is simply climate change because...well, you see, the climate changes.  Pure, unadulterated cockamamie bullshit.  Looks like the media is on an 18-20 year cycle of cockamamie bullshit.

Nothing about solar cycles, sunspots, van allen belts, ionosphere, earth's electromagnetic field, sol's electromagnetic field and how all of them interact and dance with each other.  And did you know the solar system is passing through the galactic plane?  What happens when the magnetic field flips and your compass points south? That little cycle is recorded by iron particles in the rocks.   And all of these cycles add and subtract, constructively and destructively interfere to produce ice age cycles.  And that cycle is recorded in the ice.

Nope..let's not talk about all of that.  CO2 is bad and you should feel guilty.  And don't forget, correlation is the same as causation.  Of course compared to water vapor, CO2 is nothing.  Shouldn't the alarmist media be telling us to stop boiling water?

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I couldn't agree more. These

I couldn't agree more. These are all social cycles. Human rights, womens' rights in the past and neo-feminism now, black and minority rights, in-between gender rights recently,  central bank swings, sovereign debt, wars, all have swings that phase lock and self synchronize with these.

Sovereign debt ... interest rates ... inflation ... war .... = a full list of the valuation components of .... gold!

All the above social (human) interactions are varying sized castellations located on a wall built up Lego-style from time dimensioned bricks 9.x years in size.

So ....2018 begins tomorrow

What happened in March 2009?

Stocks bottomed, (heading for top now), and gold bottomed medium term, prior to making final swing to top. Fun times indeed are a coming. Could be expensive if we get this wrong. Could wonderful if we get it right. It's The Big Trade ....

The Set Up phase is almost done. Just a few more months. Some assets are possibly there already, if we can only see clearly. Sentiment for gold is getting there. On sentiment: the conversation of the first ten seconds of last week's webinar, between myself and the setup contributor acting as MC,  were revealing. Unfortunately the problem always is: how much promulgation of information does it take to alter the outcome currently looming. I don't want to do anything to improve sentiment for gold at retail level. Those already here get it. those not here ... well we should be to them as the bankers are to them. We will hopefully take the other side of their trades when their pain gets too great to remain in gold. That's an unpleasant thing to say, but there must be somebody on the other side of every trade. The question is, when people are price driven, what does price have to do to make it happen - in other words to make them run?

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Test the above. Go to eg

Test the above. Go to eg Wikipedia and read the past major events for these years back in time.

9 x 1; 9 x 2, 9 x 4, 9 x 5, 9 x 6, 9 x 7, 9 x 8, 9 x 9, 9 x 10.

Make allowances for it being average 9, sometimes 8.6, other times 9.3, or 9.7.

Allow for 9 x 10 = 90 possibly correlating with a Fibonacci period of similar dimension.

Compare 9 x 6 with a Russian cycle specialist who was jailed for his research. Kondratieff.

Look back 9 x 8 to what the US and UN  was doing in the Korean peninsula and see if the present day look similar in any way.

If you do this you won't see present and future things the same as you did in the past. You'll see as if by looking down from a point of view above it all.

So what was special about the number "9"? Back we go to numerology, that subject which is so hard to grasp, and so hard to cut through the camouflage crud pasted all over it down the ages. Gann saw something in "9". He did something called The Square of 9 which may or may not have been the best way to deal with it. I don't think it was the best way myself, because most of those who use it don't get the key significance. But some others do and it really works for them. Really. Like Elliott I suppose.   There seems to be no point until you suddenly see what the point is. Anyway, those multiples and the challenge I gave above is a good point to start looking, since it's 100% sure you will find plenty doing it.

Happy New Year to all of you.

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If doing what I suggested

If doing what I suggested above, here is a handy link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1520

Cut and paste into the browser URL box.

Change the link to your required year by overtyping 1520 with the year of your choice and clicking {enter].

Enjoy testing it out with this year minus all the cycle numbers and Fib numbers, or esoteric numbers you think might possibly have an effect. What works works, and those who brought it to your attention know what works. And what doesn't work, well those sources also gets revealed when you test for yourself. Some big names might fail and some small names might surprise you. Track record is what it evolves to be.

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