A Modest Speculation
Musing on the 18 billion dollar gift announced last month - though I don't know precisely when it was made.
How long would you think it will be before we hear an announcement about George Soros being terminally ill?
Ray Dalio. Because he manages the worlds largest hedge fund his name is a powerful one to drop.
Now we hear that his fund has increased gold holdings by 400%. OMG right?
It is now $600 million. Which isn’t chump change to me but his fund is $16,000 million. So he’s up to 4% which is significant but not yet betting the farm.
If you listen carefully he is quoted as saying one should have 5-10% exposure. Which is unchanged from what he’s said in the past. Yet his fund has been and even with this increase is under 5%. Hmmm.
As you said AM this reporting is gold bull bait. Best to find some of those old interviews and have a price chart handy for context.
It perks up my ears but waiting for more.
The classic 3 egg Venn diagram, extended with a fourth egg.
Very clever; I've not seen the format before, but I can appreciate its use. Very inventive.
I have none, and watch with bemusement.
Anybody have a source on the market cap of crypto vs the market cap of gold? and in turn, silver?
There is a lot of money seeking a home, seeking safety, and in turn, returns. Bubble or not, I moot there will be gut wrenching swings.
I myself have no wisdom to offer anybody, but I have for some time, followed jsnip4 on youtube. I have never been swayed to buy, but he seems to have made a fortune on it, and I recommend him for any interested to follow the cryptos. He can be very entertaining too.
But hey, here's the 2 cents of a know nothing.
Cryptos, according to my understanding of them, reminds me of why I never invested in Platinum, and why I always cautioned against platinum as an investment on this site.
Platinum is mined in Russia, and also I think Zimbabwe, so structured such that if perhaps a single mine has an issue, then there goes the supply. Likewise, a small increase in production, could flood the market. Meanwhile, in terms of demand, if a substitute for platinum is found for catalytic converters (did palladium do it already?), then there goes demand. The platinum price, as I saw it, had no inherent destiny, and plenty of risk. And now, we watch it conclusively overtaken by palladium. This may turn again, but what a farce for a metal that for such a long time, was valued higher than gold.
Like platinum, I have the understanding (right or wrong) that Bitcoin is valued at the margins. For most participants, it seems to be a buy and hold; the 'digital stacker.' New demand has to compete fiercely to entice a seller. Low volume markets like platinum and bitcoin, to me, are inherently risky. A few concerted sellers could create a waterfall in price. Bitcoin has indeed seen many such already, but has always bounced back, and then maybe one day it won't. I defer to the Martin Armstrong refrain, that a price crash is typically not because of a nefarious actor shorting the market, but simply that it went no bid. Why would a crypto go no bid... perhaps because of the successful launch of the latest crypto competitor?
Isn't that a basic rule of economics; that the sight of profits, will attract competition? And continue to do so, until incremental supply is no longer lucrative? And not least, a competitor to government fiat, no risk there of state machinations (!!!!)
A single crypto might conceivably be constrained in supply, but the crypto market is infinite in supply. It is in aggregate, the ultimate fiat. The real utility of what crypto offers, will be impaired by the eventual volume of supply, in my view.
Unlike platinum, silver is the original monetary metal, but also with a thousand industrial uses. It does not rely on one use. And unlike Crypto, it is finite; very finite, with industry consuming it almost as fast as it is mined. And unlike Gold, it is a tiny market; Ted Butler just reaffirmed it as a 16$billion market. That's good; a small market, tight supply, real and diverse demand, undervalued, that's how I like my investments. If the moonshot doesn't come, it's ok; because 6 years into the silver bear, I still see the logic for patience.
As for gold; could we see, palladium approach or even overtake the gold price? On such a day, I deem the markets would be out of kilter to such a farcical degree, that a correction of a lifetime could be imminent. That's the peril for market manipulators; there comes a point where they distort ratios to such extreme levels, that the game is up. The cost of mining it has been the floor till now; if the oil price goes up, then maybe watch out above.
Snap, we share that view, as documented above. :-)
From Zerohedge today:
In early Asian trading, a burst of buying out of Korea's Bithumb exchange, has sent bitcoin surging another several hundred dollars higher, and around midnight ET bitcoin had surpassed $9,000, sending its market cap to $150 billion.
There it is; Bitcoin alone is now nine times the size of the silver market. On the flipside, it had parity with the size of the silver market, when it was priced at about a thousand dollars.
By my maths, there are currently 16 or 17 million bitcoins currently mined and available.
Every Joe Dick and his mother are launching a crypto currency by now, it's not sustainable. I wouldn't be surprised if the crypto's are a government design, a safety valve to blow off steam from anti-fiat speculators.
When things go vertical up=consider a Sell
When things go vertical down=consider a Buy
Buy low sell a bit higher ...
another 100% fake rally in Gold today, still waiting ...
Oups there she goes ... regarding BTC, more than a thousand is a reality by now. BTC maybe the real deal but after the crash it will take another 10-15years to recover. Just look at amazon, apple etc. from the IT-boom&bust.
For those interested.
For those interested.
Exactly the same as Argentus car link I would go with US fiat 24/7, atleast it's backed by taxation of xxx million workers. Cryptos are backed by Air exclusive the oxygen. By 2020 it would require the power consumption of Denmark(5.8million people) to mine bitcoin. For every transaction of BTC it consumes energy equal to 10 US citizens/day.
Byz, years ago you helped count up to 24 billion ounces of silver above ground:
At $17 an ounce that makes Silver Market Cap 17x24 = 408 billion US$
coinmarketcap has ALL cryptos sum to 301 billion US$
gold at $1300 a troy oz x 32k troy ounce per metric tonne x 180 tonnes = 7500 billion US$
All together Gold + Silver + Crypto 8.2 Trillion US$
Total G4 central bank balance sheet 13 Trillion US$
When Fiats assume their intrinsic value perhaps Gold + Silver + Crypto will have purchasing power equivalent to what US$100 Trillion has today. At that time measuring market cap will have to be done in something other than US$
FWIW--daily chart. Perhaps pivot c of a flat or unfolding triangle?