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The setup for the big trade

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Mon, Nov 20, 2017 - 11:49am
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A Modest Speculation Musing

A Modest Speculation

Musing on the 18 billion dollar gift announced last month - though I don't know precisely when it was made.

How long would you think it will be before we hear an announcement about George Soros being terminally ill?

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 21, 2017 - 9:32am
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Was I off the wall with that?

I seriously doubt it.

When a business is making money you withdraw funds from it.

When it's losing money, that is when funds must be added, or alternatively sell it, or shut it down.

sell it = get remaining funds out, allow further losses to fall on the buyer

shut it down = = curtail further losses from not accepting the situation for what it is.

So .. if Soros recapitalizes his Open Society global communism NGO then this is a sign that either the NWO communist project is losing badly and getting recapitalized to stop the deterioration, or , his life is deteriorating, and funds are being moved out of that into other places, like the Open Society.

Either .. or ...

The actions tell the story.

Soros or the globalism project, (or both) are failing. We see the reaction of the players, and what they do is revealing.

How long to go in the gold bear? We are in the end game already in my opinion. So how long will it take to make a 7-8 year trend reversal bottom formation? It can be a spike down, capitulation, or a multiple of lows, low plus failed retest. For such a trend, how far apart in time would such lows, the main event and the retest (lower and aborted, or higher low) be separated? You have to look to past trend endings of all sizes for the answer and list the numbers of each type, developing a significant number from which to estimate odds.

Would a harmonic projection on monthly or quarterly scale work for such a calculation? It would, but the consequence of assuming one favoured outcome could be that a variant outcome somehow evades overly tightly described entry signals, and the moment gets missed.

While hard to deal with, fuzzy logic beats precise assumptions where markets are concerned. The simplest way to find a trend ending is to place a trendline above descending highs and buy the break. However, we know from experience that the nature of the gold market means that there will be regular breaks, all false, until suddenly a recent break turns out to be genuine. In retrospect. Thus the short term get in and out again trader seems to have the advantage, always "in" when the time to be in arrives. the trouble is - the short term trader will get out too soon and then be out when it continues and the big trade is missed by taking only a tiny slice of the profits it makes possible.

Where to draw that trendline thus is an artform. Or a clever combination of volume plus price levels acting as support and resistance. COT is similar to volume. So is momentum. And open interest. Wave counting a final C or 5th works too.

For the coming 12 months or so, all of these factors are what matters most. We are in the zone, but only just in, and it's a big zone.

Fundamentally, the new heavy (state) hitters on the block (like eg China, Russia) are almost hedged, and the old already hedged states, (the western cabal) well, they have puked some in 2008 and 2012, and then printed the fiat to refinance, and where are they in their project of rehedging the fiat? Well, they probably plan to "cancel" a large chunk of that freshly made fiat, (for which we must be careful remembering Cyprus, India) but the rest is their liability. They must handle it in some way.

Remember Charles DeGaulle and Nixon/the US? Heavy hitters demand respect and can't be ignored like you or I can. So the rehedging should be moving into a higher gear. Can stock holdings provide that function for Central Banks and sovereign wealth funds? They are clearly a chancier game than gold.

In the meantime no actions have been taken against the digital currencies created by the private sector. That time can come when required to "move" brand loyalty to a more controlled digi-FX. But for now, rehedging time, all diversions of demand away from precious metals would be a godsend and most welcome for under hedged central banks.

On the sirens. What are Andy, Bix and Max selling today? Yes indeed. Playing a final wave could be good if you get out in time. But that is never as easy as the innocent think. A price spike grabs the attention of all but the most focused minds. It's mere presence changes reality. Until you've seen enough of them I might add.

There are longer term sirens who have been wrong, but history shows they eventually get it right. Eric, Rick, Ross, Keith, come to mind. They will talk after taking action as such people should logically do.

Ah the concepts and factors we grapple with when attempting to decode just our little corner of the world! Always challenging, often scary, sometimes euphoric, even boring. I don't get bored during sideways periods nowadays, but understand those who do. Learning to wait is one of the big lessons. I hope I have learned that lesson and wait neither too little nor too much!

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Tue, Nov 21, 2017 - 11:33am
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Elevated Geopolitical Contest

Elevated Geopolitical Contest Effect (what I call "G" in G-V) prevails at the moment.

In gold, on the daily timeframe, it looks as if a weaker swing may attempt to get started from now towards end of month.

Yesterday is the three day low, if it goes that uncovers last Tuesday's low which would be a weekly timeframe low and higher scale than daily.

Below that is Friday and Monday 3 and 6 November which is just above the two lows for October. So taking last week opens up the monthly sideways-to-upwards trend for a retest circa 1263. It's not far and shouldn't be too difficult to go for.

The marketmakers will most likely make attempts to trigger weak bulls (those who bought too high or over leveraged) to run and get an open interest reduction (and profitable short covering for them) towards month end. The recent pro gold mainstream media coverage will have induced a certain population of easier-than-usual-to-herd newbies into the arena as is required. The hardened and experienced crew reading this don't budge too easily after recent years and are more costly to motivate.

Stops off last three days would therefore be material.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Thu, Nov 23, 2017 - 9:27am
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BIS on Crypto Currencies classifies all currencies

Last night's FUD video on SGTReport ( https://www.youtube.com/user/SGTbull07 ) drew my attention to the existence of this paper. So a hat tip to Sean of SGT and Lynette Zhang for that.

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709f.htm

Well worth a peruse, it contains this interesting ideograph:

Fullsize is at this link courtesy of BIS : https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709/images/graph5-3.jpg

I have said in the past that cash is the new gold.

This graph helps put some of my structural reasons for saying that in a visual form. Look at where they located cash beside commodity money.

But there are other aspects I'll highlight.

Cash has always been "soft" currency in the long term ,ad harder in the short term, it works when the banks are closed or offline for example. 

However, recent anti-cash measures have drawn cash closer to the control of the central banks who issue the banknotes. For example, inflationary cash devaluation was often a consequence of overprinting in the past. But in recent times we have seen accelerated reduction of the value of cash, whereby in India there was a time limit date created by central bank rule at which "old banknote cash" would become worthless, and all cash had to convert (via the banking system) into "new banknote cash". This of course created a 100% devaluation of cash not so converted, according to the rules as applied to the public.

Short-term-hard-money- cash thus was converted into short-term-soft-money cash.

Ken Rogoff's IMF dream manifested I suppose.

So it's good to bear these changes in mind - the drawing of free circulating sovereign-fiat cash closer into the central banks' power zone - when looking at this interesting graph.

And note once more where cash is, vs eg gold, and vs the other "outer zone" FX instruments.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Fri, Nov 24, 2017 - 9:22am
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Interest seems to have

Interest seems to have dropped off during the last quarter.

Sideways price movement has a negative effect on public interest in gold.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - 6:25am (Reply to #10596)
S Olsson
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argentus maximus wrote:

argentus maximus wrote:
Sideways price movement has a negative effect on public interest in gold.

Yes, but sideways is the new up yes Ray Dalio is on the move into Gold and I am waiting for a juicy buying opportunity. Nothing much has changed since my three tic cycle post.

Enjoy ...

https://youtu.be/X4OhHr1SDQo?t=1142

Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - 9:14am
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What happened shortly after

What happened shortly after the last time Ray Dalio was reported as saying he was buying gold? A time when he cast doubts ojn the Comex ability to deliver? Gold retail bulls loved the idea of a Comex delivery faliure. From memory that was a short time after this thread began. It's worth looking at a chart.What happened to the price of gold after? Also what gold looked like prior to that Dalio interview, and to compare that with what gold looks like now, that he speaks in somewhat similar way.

My personal Dalio track record assessment is to exercise care, but also read bis publications carefully too, because those in powerful positions use his knowledge when formulating their policies.

The narrator in the video, Christopher Aaron (?), made interesting comments.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - 11:36am
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Ray Dalio.  Because he

Ray Dalio. Because he manages the worlds largest hedge fund his name is a powerful one to drop.

Now we hear that his fund has increased gold holdings by 400%. OMG right?

It is now $600 million. Which isn’t chump change to me but his fund is $16,000 million. So he’s up to 4% which is significant but not yet betting the farm.

If you listen carefully he is quoted as saying one should have 5-10% exposure. Which is unchanged from what he’s said in the past. Yet his fund has been and even with this increase is under 5%. Hmmm.

As you said AM this reporting is gold bull bait. Best to find some of those old interviews and have a price chart handy for context.

It perks up my ears but waiting for more.

Swing trade indexed ETFs. Long physical gold, silver, and 1 miner.
Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - 5:26am (Reply to #10599)
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BIS graph

The classic 3 egg Venn diagram, extended with a fourth egg.

Very clever; I've not seen the format before, but I can appreciate its use. Very inventive.

Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - 5:31am
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Bitcoin

I have none, and watch with bemusement. 

Anybody have a source on the market cap of crypto vs the market cap of gold? and in turn, silver?

There is a lot of money seeking a home, seeking safety, and in turn, returns. Bubble or not, I moot there will be gut wrenching swings.

I myself have no wisdom to offer anybody, but I have for some time, followed jsnip4 on youtube. I have never been swayed to buy, but he seems to have made a fortune on it, and I recommend him for any interested to follow the cryptos. He can be very entertaining too.

Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - 7:45am
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A piece of historical data that can apply to digi-FX

Let's assume this century shall be the century of digital currency.

In similar vein, it could be said that the 20th century was the century of the automobile.

What happened to the average car maker during the 1900s?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States

Picking the winning technology is not enough. There will be winners within that area, but the majority will lose, I think.

argentus maximus Rhythm and Price http://www.greenhobbymodel.com/rhythmnprice.html This analysis - global markets
Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - 7:47am
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Cryptos, platinum, and silver

But hey, here's the 2 cents of a know nothing. 

Cryptos, according to my understanding of them, reminds me of why I never invested in Platinum, and why I always cautioned against platinum as an investment on this site.

Platinum is mined in Russia, and also I think Zimbabwe, so structured such that if perhaps a single mine has an issue, then there goes the supply. Likewise, a small increase in production, could flood the market. Meanwhile, in terms of demand, if a substitute for platinum is found for catalytic converters (did palladium do it already?), then there goes demand. The platinum price, as I saw it, had no inherent destiny, and plenty of risk. And now, we watch it conclusively overtaken by palladium. This may turn again, but what a farce for a metal that for such a long time, was valued higher than gold.

Like platinum, I have the understanding (right or wrong) that Bitcoin is valued at the margins. For most participants, it seems to be a buy and hold; the 'digital stacker.' New demand has to compete fiercely to entice a seller. Low volume markets like platinum and bitcoin, to me, are inherently risky. A few concerted sellers could create a waterfall in price. Bitcoin has indeed seen many such already, but has always bounced back, and then maybe one day it won't. I defer to the Martin Armstrong refrain, that a price crash is typically not because of a nefarious actor shorting the market, but simply that it went no bid. Why would a crypto go no bid... perhaps because of the successful launch of the latest crypto competitor? 

Isn't that a basic rule of economics; that the sight of profits, will attract competition? And continue to do so, until incremental supply is no longer lucrative? And not least, a competitor to government fiat, no risk there of state machinations (!!!!)

A single crypto might conceivably be constrained in supply, but the crypto market is infinite in supply. It is in aggregate, the ultimate fiat. The real utility of what crypto offers, will be impaired by the eventual volume of supply, in my view.

Unlike platinum, silver is the original monetary metal, but also with a thousand industrial uses. It does not rely on one use. And unlike Crypto, it is finite; very finite, with industry consuming it almost as fast as it is mined. And unlike Gold, it is a tiny market; Ted Butler just reaffirmed it as a 16$billion market. That's good; a small market, tight supply, real and diverse demand, undervalued, that's how I like my investments. If the moonshot doesn't come, it's ok; because 6 years into the silver bear, I still see the logic for patience.

As for gold; could we see, palladium approach or even overtake the gold price? On such a day, I deem the markets would be out of kilter to such a farcical degree, that a correction of a lifetime could be imminent. That's the peril for market manipulators; there comes a point where they distort ratios to such extreme levels, that the game is up. The cost of mining it has been the floor till now; if the oil price goes up, then maybe watch out above. 

Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - 7:48am
rathernot Say
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@ Argentus

Snap, we share that view, as documented above. :-)

Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - 12:32pm
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Bicoin market cap

From Zerohedge today:

In early Asian trading, a burst of buying out of Korea's Bithumb exchange, has sent bitcoin surging another several hundred dollars higher, and around midnight ET bitcoin had surpassed $9,000, sending its market cap to $150 billion.

There it is; Bitcoin alone is now nine times the size of the silver market. On the flipside, it had parity with the size of the silver market, when it was priced at about a thousand dollars. 

By my maths, there are currently 16 or 17 million bitcoins currently mined and available.

Mon, Nov 27, 2017 - 9:58am
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Crypto Market Cap

For those interested.

https://coinmarketcap.com/

Mon, Nov 27, 2017 - 10:00am
S Olsson
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Every Joe Dick and his mother

Every Joe Dick and his mother are launching a crypto currency by now, it's not sustainable. I wouldn't be surprised if the crypto's are a government design, a safety valve to blow off steam from anti-fiat speculators.

When things go vertical up=consider a Sell

When things go vertical down=consider a Buy

Buy low sell a bit higher ...

another 100% fake rally in Gold today, still waiting ...

Edit:

Oups there she goes ... regarding BTC, more than a thousand is a reality by now. BTC maybe the real deal but after the crash it will take another 10-15years to recover. Just look at amazon, apple etc. from the IT-boom&bust.

Mon, Nov 27, 2017 - 10:26am (Reply to #10607)
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Rainforest wrote: For those

Rainforest wrote:

For those interested.

https://coinmarketcap.com/

Exactly the same as Argentus car link cheeky I would go with US fiat 24/7, atleast it's backed by taxation of xxx million workers. Cryptos are backed by Air exclusive the oxygen. By 2020 it would require the power consumption of Denmark(5.8million people) to mine bitcoin. For every transaction of BTC it consumes energy equal to 10 US citizens/day.

Mon, Nov 27, 2017 - 12:22pm (Reply to #10608)
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Silver Market Cap 408 billion

Byz, years ago you helped count up to 24 billion ounces of silver above ground:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forum/4591/silver-above-ground

At $17 an ounce that makes Silver Market Cap 17x24 = 408 billion US$

coinmarketcap has ALL cryptos sum to 301 billion US$

gold at $1300 a troy oz x 32k troy ounce per metric tonne x 180 tonnes = 7500 billion US$

All together Gold + Silver + Crypto 8.2 Trillion US$

Total G4 central bank balance sheet 13 Trillion US$

In 2014, according to the CIA's World Factbook, the GWP totalled approximately US$107.5 trillion in terms of purchasing power parity

G4 balance sheets

When Fiats assume their intrinsic value perhaps Gold + Silver + Crypto will have purchasing power equivalent to what US$100 Trillion has today. At that time measuring market cap will have to be done in something other than US$

Tue, Nov 28, 2017 - 1:29am
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Feb Gold

FWIW--daily chart. Perhaps pivot c of a flat or unfolding triangle?

Tue, Nov 28, 2017 - 11:12am
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Macleod must read

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