The setup for the big trade

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Pete
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Dec Gold--Major pivot low just ahead?

The daily chart of Dec Gold shows a very strong confluence of lines within a 2 point range on Monday, from 1270.90 (the Major ML) to 1268.90 (the .618R level).

Some comments on the lines:

The line joining p5 and p6 (a counter-trend move) is a peak-to-low center line.  The action point is p2.  Very often a counter-trend move generates a useful center line for a/r work.  Consider it supplemental and not primary (don't use solo).

The ml from p4 (red) is very close to the 2-4 2p line.  This gives added strength to its indication as an important line.  (It gives another clue about the "why" of p6.)

The 5-6 counter-trend move was held quite well within the channel of 3-4-5 (there was a post on this).  Given this internal coherence, wl#1 to this same channel was drawn as an additional target line.

R1 of the rally is also present; its value is 1270.40 on Monday.  In itself its strength to turn the decline is not great, but it's better than just OK.  Supportive is that the action line from p15, drawn back in time, touches a pivot (within the prior decline).  Hence the action line is a 2p line.  The more pivots on both lines, the better.  p4 is at least good on the settlement (on the CL, not above).

My past teacher in action/reaction work used to call this situation at a 0-Y mpl R1 an ARB point.  It was where there was a line confluence occurring at Babson's R1 line.  ARB stood for Andrews, Reinhart, and Babson.  I think Reinhart may have been my teacher's first name in German.  Never asked him.  

He would use a very sensitive entry trigger at such a confluence.

At the R1 area we have the latest Major ML, a warning line, a minor ml, a 2p line, and a minor reaction line.  Not all these lines need to be touched (such as .618 R at 1268.90.)  But they might all be exceeded intraday, or even on the close if the level fails--assuming prices decline on Monday.

Should this level be reached on Monday with a favorable close, odds are good for a revisit to 1362.40 before this presumed low would be exceeded.  Watch out for a Sunday night contract dump to try to smash through this area.  Remember that most all traders know about the .618 level, but most do not know about the other lines.  They might underestimate the strength inherent in an ARB point.

As always, we'll see how it works out.

argentus maximus
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@HappyNow

Thanks very much for taking the time and effort for that post HappyNow. Everybody looks at these unusually open posts and thinks I'm sometimes a bit like that part there, and I also have done this part here, and .... the light bulbs come on incrementally.

We all benefit.

Appreciated.

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HappyNow
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Pete, thanks for the link to

Pete, thanks for the link to Mark Douglas.  Sound rule set there.

Argentus Maximus.  You're welcome.

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Pete
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I can hardly believe it!

If you haven't seen this measurement by Trader Joe, DO!--http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/

Incredible--just as the Major 2P ascending tops line is almost reached, and the latest minor ml has not been reached at p5, (yet?)...

And, Yom Kippur was observed Friday evening into today, Saturday.  (Can't find your post that mentioned YK, AM.)

Talk about confluence...  has the top of W3 been made, or very nearly so? The daily RSI is the highest in 7 months at 71.61, and the hourly rsi is 70.16 (very ripe).

I watched the "unsustainable" surge late Friday, and I couldn't understand it--is it the madness of the crowd?

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Pete wrote:If you haven't

Pete wrote:
If you haven't seen this measurement by Trader Joe, DO!--http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/

Incredible--just as the Major 2P ascending tops line is almost reached, and the latest minor ml has not been reached at p5, (yet?)...

And, Yom Kippur was observed Friday evening into today, Saturday.  (Can't find your post that mentioned YK, AM.)

Talk about confluence...  has the top of W3 been made, or very nearly so? The daily RSI is the highest in 7 months at 71.61, and the hourly rsi is 70.16 (very ripe).

I watched the "unsustainable" surge late Friday, and I couldn't understand it--is it the madness of the crowd? 

Hi Pete,

I expect you are remembering my post of September 4, 2017 - 1:52pm     #10343

That was quite a long post so I won't quote it here again. There were a lot of different angles brought up in it.

And this one from September 4, 2017 - 2:44pm  #10344

Here it is:

argentus maximus wrote:
While we are on alternative calendars, here's a heads up on another HebCal event coming up: Yom Kippur 2017 is 30 September.

Those who have read Christopher Carolan's book The Spiral Calendar as I recommended in a past Setup post will know this sometimes matters for stocks. It refers to the possibility and timing or September or October surprises in the stock market.

A couple of years ago I wrote at length about the bakers' dozen being 13 instead of 12, and made the point that this was intended to mislead. the 13 and 12 refers to the number of lunar months in a calendar year. The bakers dozen name is typical concealment and confusion of something important by the powers that be - or that were - about 500 years ago. And the misinformation continues to this day, se eg Wikipedia on bakers dozen. So I introduced the Hebrew Calendar into the discussion here at Setup, and also in DOTS... so that enquiring minds might have a idea where to look for some answers. It's not the Hebrews in particular, because I cross referenced Celtic calendar bronze age works. So the early Jews got something. The early Celts got it, slightly differently and better in my view, but they are not around today to explain (I gave enough to figure it out) and the best thing is to look at Heb Cal,  Celtic Cal, Spiral Cal and see what is common but strangely appears to be missing, because that's the secret they didn't eg put in Wikipedia.

Starting with knowledge of what the dates are, and watching markets for a few years, or going back and researching those times, the markets and the news, some things become illuminated. Gann's mystical books make more sense. But really it's all here and those sources aren't necessary except to find alternate sources to what I bring into the light maybe to verify what I talk about . I hope this little bit extra adds clarity to the above linked extensive post that I didn't re-quote.

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I like this part of Lara's

I like this part of Lara's video at 13:13

the Slo Sto looks nice too ...

Good old Ronnie is back with a new movie from today:

If he is correct with his count I am in big trouble, full Moon on Thorsday.

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Violence for the period

Violence for the period discussed a month ago can now add following fresh events

+ France

+ Canada

With the perspective provided, do you see the bricks being put into place one by one to provoke demands for actions?

Organized sequence across national boundaries .... a programme or campaign ...

Like an international PR campaign of a kind ....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Unrelated reading matter, you don't need to read:

Noam Chomsky:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

Edward Bernays:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Engineering_of_Consent

The review is enough. Actually the titles themselves are enough.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Campaigns cost money. Every business requires a return on capital employed.

What are the changes initiated, the mental alterations, the actions which will result ... will flow eventually from this?

Qui bono?

We only need to see the instruments of change being deployed to know when to set stops. The price either respect or take our stops out and tell us all we need to know.

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+ USA At least 50 dead in Las

+ USA

At least 50 dead in Las Vegas shooting

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Solsson
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The world is going mad

The world is going mad ...

Greg Mannarino lives in Las Vegas, I've never seen him in such a bad mood and rightfully so of course.

Double detonations in my hometown yesterday night within a hour, a 16year old kid running a car at high speed into a police office, an explosion at a school in Stockholm and so on and so forth ...

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Update

I was surprised to see price slice cleanly through the 1285 magnet considering it was also close to the 1.38 fanline.  There is a minor magnet here near 1270 (circles).  Below that is the 1250 magnet and the 1.00 fanline.

https://s.tradingview.com/x/9toqkWVD/

AM...I am curious, do you have this as extended wave 5 down?

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UncleFester wrote:AM...I am

UncleFester wrote:
AM...I am curious, do you have this as extended wave 5 down?

I have been watching it carefully since the highest G-V, waiting to see how the pivot constructed itself.

I expect to see a G-V pivot, end of contract pivot, end of week/month pivot which are the same in this case, and usually a 2-4th of following month pivot (OI entry into the new contract). these should "draw" sub wave 4 at some degree (which is to be figured out), and the micro wave 5 following, and also sub wave 1 and retest of major pivot wave 2 pullback. Then walking forwards, on that degree try to guess the month  to come's pattern.

Let me give you a better answer later tonight or tomorrow morning, I have a lot to work out with the price action up to last night's close. Basically I reckoned it was unforecastable until this sequence of minor pivots became visible, except as in the second half is usually bearish for it's first quarter (for gold) as a general tendency followed in recent years. Thus mid months should create lower highs, and we have been seeing those. So overhead resistance is there. It's the lows I want to measure today to evaluate underneath support and try to get a realtime estimate of range.

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brokerk22
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@technical crew

Your sub wave 5 of mini wave ii shit all went to hell already.  You were all expecting a rally to challenge or break 2016 highs.  So you are already wrong.  It wont go up until the system breaks for real.  

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GCZ7 60m

Alas, I chose last night not to use the alarm clock to get me up at 5:00.  While price did not reach the ML, where I had chosen to place a GTC limit buy with acceptable stop below .618R, it surely has reached the daily chart R1 line and will probably put in a positive EOD close (a bullish assumption).  The entry pattern and trigger on the 60m chart was as clear as day to those awake (at 9:00 ET), and one shown many times here.  The risk was about 1 point on entry.  The immediate potential is to the new, upsloping 60m ml.  As a possible Major pivot low it can go much further of course.  

The primary strength of the patterns that I present here is their long history of being useful, i.e. they are proven edges.

This is not to say the 2nd H-bounce pattern assures a bottom.  But it gives a very good chance with low initial risk to establish a position where the risk/reward is very favorable.  It works for both buys and sells.  The next, necessary aspect is to take a partial profit on your position to pay yourself, and to hold the remainder until the next setup emerges.  The pattern suggests that the new 60m ml will probably be reached--a good profit-taking point to assure a no-loss position.  We shall see how this instance works out.

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A mention re silver

Silver has of course already closed below the possible bottom of 9/28 made at its R1 line.  R2 is another possible target, much lower.  The weakness in silver gives me pause about any forecasting of strength for gold.  I'd need to see a daily chart upside zoom, basis m0, in silver to begin to get strongly bullish for the PMs.

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AM, thanks kindly for the

AM, thanks kindly for the reply. 

I see brokerk22 still likes to do drive-byes.  Shows up just to take a swipe and leaves nothing of value.  Apparently he cannot get it through his head that the "reset" is really just an ongoing cyclical process.  Did the system break with the formation of the US Federal Reserve in 1913?  Did the system break after the Genoa conference in 1922?  Did the system break when FDR confiscated gold in 1933?  Did the system break when the London gold pool collapsed in 1968?  Did the system break after the Nixon shock in 1971?  Did the system break after the oil crisis of 1973?  Did the system break when gold peaked in 1980?  I'm sure it was just the Hunt brothers that did that!

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I am watching this: Second

I am watching this:

Second lot of JNUG to be invested later this week ... a quick visit to 1260 before a turn?

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Uncle

Your chart indicates 20 years relatively flat prices to come.  If that is accurate then only traders need to be in the PM space.  I am too old and play too much golf to be interested.

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Kentucky

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme."  Interest rates last bottomed in the 1940's.  The West hasn't issued this much debt since WWII, also the 1940's.  In the 1940's there were a lot of Jews living in the European ghettos, today the ghettos contain Muslims.  As we speak, all that double digit 30 year debt from the 1980's is being rolled over at < 3%.  The baby boomers are now drawing down on all the private and public systems...the proverbial pig in the python.  How does one makes sense of it all, what will happen?

For the gold price, that picture above is just one possible scenario that could play out.  Personally, I do not think that this will drag out to 2031, but...does the market care what I think?  In chemistry, to go from one state to another requires passing through a transition.  The 1980 and 2011 spikes in Au price are the transitions...or the evidence thereof.  Gold as currency -> gold as collective reserve and paper currency -> gold price dirty float and electronic currency -> (insert future here).

In college I was a 5 handicap, now I'm a 10.  Getting old stinks.

PS.  1950 - 1965 were very good years in the US...maybe the best.  Moving on to 2031 might not be muddling through after all is said and done?  

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broker that may be the most

broker that may be the most coherent thing I've seen you write in a long time.  You still sound drunk and angry though.   When do you think the system will break?

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Potential Big Trade Set up

Has anyone seen this Inverse Head and Shoulders in the $GOLD Price???

It is over the Intermediate term and includes a Breakout and Back Test.

Perhaps just a pretty chart.

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